Like it or not, you just set your lineup for the second-to-last time this season -- and that's assuming you don't get eliminated from the playoffs.
We're running out of time, and without time, Sliders doesn't make sense anymore. The purpose of the column is to separate hot and cold streaks from legitimate changes in value. But with only two weeks left, the streaking players are exactly the ones you want.
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Clearly, we need a new focus. If the goal of Sliders is to assess a player's value for an entire season, why not make it the 2012 season?
Over the next two weeks, I'll look at some of the most notable Sliders of 2011 and examine how their values have changed for 2012. The direction of the arrows is obvious, but the extent of the change is clearly open for debate. And in the case of the Hanging Sliders, it might be less than you think.
This week, I'll focus on pitchers. Next week, I'll focus on hitters. Even with the division, I obviously can't write about everybody. If your favorite player is missing, it's either because I haven't made up my mind about him yet (Ubaldo Jimenez) or because he doesn't leave much room for debate (Ian Kennedy).
To the future!
Sliders ... These players are more than just one-year wonders. Their 2011 numbers indicate a long-term change in value.
James Shields, SP, Rays
Last year, Shields went 13-15 with a 5.18 ERA. Four shutouts and 11 complete games later, Fantasy owners still don't know what to think of him.
Here's what I think: Stud, all the way. Here's why: Based on his peripherals, Shields was capable of this kind of season all along, but he got into some bad habits that caused his numbers to trend the wrong direction.
Rays manager Joe Maddon has made reference to those habits, saying Shields has learned to command his pitches within the strike zone. Even at his worst, he'd rarely miss by enough to give up a bunch of walks -- he routinely ranked among the league leaders in strikeout-to-walk ratio -- but he'd miss by enough to give up a bunch of homers and, in the case of last season, an MLB-worst 246 hits.
That's Maddon connecting the dots there -- not me -- but it explains the numbers to a tee. Shields, who would consistently rank among the MLB leaders in home runs surrendered, has a home run rate of 0.9 per nine innings this season, the lowest of his career. He's also giving up a career-low 7.0 hits per nine innings and has a line-drive rate of 18.4 percent, down from 20.3 percent a year ago.
In short, hitters are making contact just as often against Shields (which wasn't terribly often to begin with), but they're not having nearly as much success. His pitches were always effective enough to record a healthy number of strikeouts, but now that he's locating them better, he's able to record outs in other ways.
The result, as you can ace, is an ace. Shields is at a stage of his career where he can pitch well over 200 innings, and he's efficient enough to pitch eight or nine innings every time out. It's like Roy Halladay never left the AL East.
You might have some reservations about selecting Shields as the top pitcher of your Fantasy staff next year, but outside of Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Jered Weaver and Cole Hamels, there's none I'd rather have.
Mat Latos, SP, Padres
If any Fantasy owner doubts the importance of circumstance to a player's value, he need only look to Latos as Exhibit A.
In 2010, the Padres were a surprise contender in the NL, and Latos was a surprise ace in Fantasy. In 2011, the Padres were a dud, and Latos, again, has followed suit.
OK, he hasn't been terrible. He's still striking out nearly a batter per inning and has managed to get his season ERA below 4.00 by posting a 2.89 mark over his last eight starts. But that's precisely the point. Even with numbers that should make him a more-than-serviceable starting pitcher in Fantasy if not quite the ace he was a year ago, he ranks 57th at the position, a mere two Head-to-Head points ahead of Luke Hochevar.
True, luck has been a factor. Even pitching for the lowly Padres, Latos should have a better record than 7-13. But the fact of the matter is, as long as the Padres have a bottom-of-the-barrel offense, he can't expect to have a good win-loss record. It'll never be something that sets him apart, and given his other shortcomings -- the spotty command, the six-inning outings, the general inconsistency -- he doesn't have much that will.
Latos is still a high-upside pitcher whose strikeout rate alone makes him a must-own in all Fantasy leagues, but with so many similar pitchers emerging in 2011 -- from Michael Pineda to Justin Masterson to Madison Bumgarner to Jordan Zimmermann -- you don't need to gamble on Latos' inconsistencies as early as you did this year, when you invested a fifth-round pick in him. He might have a hard time cracking the top 40 starting pitchers entering 2012.
C.J. Wilson, SP, Rangers
For whatever reason, a certain percentage of Fantasy owners can't take Wilson seriously. They see him as a nice story -- a failed closer moves to the starting rotation and finds instant success in his new role -- but are still counting down the days until his inevitable collapse.
Certainly, that was the prevailing attitude coming into the season, when the average Fantasy owner would target Gavin Floyd and Hiroki Kuroda before taking a chance on Wilson. In Head-to-Head leagues, he was drafted only three spots ahead of Brian Duensing, for crying out loud.
But anyone who still feels that way about Wilson is kidding himself.
A fluke would regress from one year to the next. He wouldn't improve in just about every measurable category. He wouldn't go from an already high strikeout rate to an even higher one. He wouldn't eliminate his one shortcoming -- an AL-high 93 walks -- by issuing less than three free passes per nine innings.
He wouldn't make the All-Star team or rank 11th among all pitchers in Head-to-Head leagues, behind Cole Hamels and ahead of Felix Hernandez.
I don't see Wilson as an overachiever anymore. I see him a frontline pitcher finally able to maximize all five -- yes, five -- of his pitches now that he's in the starting rotation, and I only see him getting better the longer he stays there.
If Wilson is drafted as anything less than a top-25 starting pitcher in 2012, he'll be one of the biggest bargains on Draft Day.
Roy Oswalt, SP, Phillies
The irony of Oswalt's disappointing 2011 is that, for much of 2010, many Fantasy owners had already turned the page on him. He had a 6-12 record for the Astros and had shown earlier signs of decline with a 4.12 ERA in 2009.
Only when he went to the Phillies in a midseason trade and put together a 7-1 record with a 1.74 ERA in 13 appearances did he make believers of us all.
Drafting a player in response to a best-case scenario is never a good idea. Oswalt's performance with the Phillies gave Fantasy owners reason to believe he had regained his ace standing, and so they treated him like an ace, drafting him in the fifth round, which is about the time Tommy Hanson and Zack Greinke were going off the board. Since then, they've rediscovered all the pitfalls that go along with owning Oswalt during the twilight of his career -- the DL stints, the mysterious drops in velocity, the disappointing strikeout totals. It's a perpetual headache.
So what's an appropriate assessment of Oswalt for 2012? Well, he'll be a 34-year-old with a chronic back problem. If he gives you a reliable six or seven innings for the 20-25 starts he's healthy, you can live with that in Fantasy.
Of course, you wouldn't want to invest more than a middle-round pick in it.
Jonathan Sanchez, SP, Giants
We should have known better with Sanchez.
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| Player | Recent trades | |
| 1. | Nelson Cruz, OF, Rangers | 71 |
| 2. | Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners | 61 |
| 3. | Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals | 58 |
| 4. | Tim Lincecum, SP, Giants | 56 |
| 5. | Mariano Rivera, RP, Yankees | 55 |
| 6. | Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins | 51 |
| 7. | Jayson Werth, OF, Nationals | 50 |
| 8. | Francisco Cordero, RP, Reds | 50 |
| 9. | Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Nationals | 49 |
| 10. | Roy Halladay, SP, Phillies | 49 |
Long enticed by his ability to strike out more than a batter per inning, we all wanted to believe his 13-9 record and 3.07 ERA in 2010 were signs of progress, going so far as to draft him ahead of safer options like Tim Hudson and Shaun Marcum. But we were kidding ourselves, rationalizing that because he lacked the symptoms, he must have found the cure.
For Sanchez, the sickness has always been a lack of command. Instead of putting away hitters as quickly as his arsenal would allow, he'd give them free passes to first base. During that magical 2010, he issued more of those free passes (96) than any other pitcher in baseball. His walk ratio of 4.5 per nine innings wasn't any better than his career mark of 4.6. He managed to survive it by allowing an MLB-low 6.6 hits per nine innings, but it was like the foundation of a house of cards. Any slight movement, and the whole thing would collapse.
Naturally, that slight movement has happened. Sanchez's hit rate has risen to 7.1 per nine innings, which is still an impressive number, but when combined with the walks, it has done enough damage to his ERA and WHIP to make him unusable in Fantasy -- and in real life, for that matter. He has been so bad, in fact, that at one point the Giants actually preferred Barry Zito to him.
Sanchez's walk rate has shown no substantial improvement from year to year. He still has trouble pitching deep into games, lasting seven innings only twice this year. He hasn't changed one iota during his four years as a full-time starting pitcher. He offers strikeouts and strikeouts alone, and strikeouts alone don't amount to much in Fantasy with the recent increase in high-end pitchers.
Next year, we'll know better.
Hanging Slider These guys look like Sliders, but not so fast! Their 2011 numbers might cause you to misinterpret their Fantasy appeal.
Johnny Cueto, SP, Reds
The enthusiasm over Cueto is simple. He has a 2.36 ERA, and a 2.36 ERA is awesome. Just ask Jair Jurrjens.
Yes, Jurrjens, who knows as well as anybody how flimsy a potential ERA title can be. The lower the number goes, the easier it is to correct. A couple of shaky starts, and Cueto is right back to square one.
Not that square one is such a terrible place for him. In fact, an improvement in 2011 was expected for him as a pitcher in his mid-20s on a steady upward climb.
But a 2.36 ERA is too much too fast. A pitcher shouldn't progress that quickly without fundamental improvement elsewhere. Cueto hasn't become any more of a bat-misser -- in fact, he's striking out a career-low 6.0 batters per nine innings -- and his walk rate is exactly the same as a year ago. He's just not giving up hits the way he used to. Might it have something to do with the increase in ground balls? Sure, but a drop in BABIP to .248 from the .290 range is, again, too much too fast.
Already, we're beginning to see a regression to the mean for Cueto. He has a 4.01 ERA over his last seven starts, and the trend could continue over the final two weeks.
But if it slows enough that he maintains an ERA under 2.50, you'll find plenty of Fantasy owners next year who target him like he's a Cy Young winner in waiting. Really, you should target him in 2012 the same way you did in 2011: as a middle-rounder with upside.
Brandon Morrow, SP, Blue Jays
Morrow has had a disappointing 2011. That much is certain. But the disappointment is more a product of Fantasy owners' expectations than Morrow's performance.
What exactly had Morrow done coming into the season? I realize he struck out everybody in sight last year, but he posted a 4.49 ERA and threw only 146 1/3 innings -- which, by the way, more than doubled his previous career high. He was, by every measurement but the strikeouts, an unproven commodity.
So why, then, was he drafted in the ninth round in Head-to-Head leagues, ahead of players like Tim Hudson, James Shields and Gio Gonzalez? Why was the speculative pick treated as more of a sure thing than the established picks? How did our opinion of Morrow get so warped?
It doesn't show up in his 5.12 ERA, but Morrow has given Fantasy owners reason for optimism. He continues to improve his command, issuing a career-low 3.4 walks per nine innings. He has passed his previous career high in innings, bringing him closer to the 200-inning season he'll need to emerge as a Fantasy ace. And of course, he still has knockout stuff, leading the AL with 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Has he gotten knocked around a few times? Sure. But the progress is clear.
Nobody called Morrow a finished product, but because so many Fantasy owners approached him like one, they'll assume he's a failed product and avoid him on Draft Day, not wanting to get burned again. He'll go later in drafts even though his chances of living up to the hype have only improved.
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