Albert Pujols endured a down campaign -- by his standards -- in St. Louis last season as he failed to bat over .300 and post at least 100 RBI for the first time in his career. He hit just .279 over his first 73 games before a fracture in his wrist forced him to miss time in late June. He would come back in early July -- ahead of schedule -- and returned to familiar form. He sported a .579 slugging percentage and hit 20 homers while driving in 54 runs over his final 74 games, finishing the regular season with a .299 average and 99 RBI. Pujols then had a torrid postseason to help lead the Cardinals to the World Series title. After flirting with a couple of teams in the offseason, the 31-year-old signed a 10-year deal with the Angels and is expected to continue to post huge numbers in his first season in the American League. Los Angeles won’t give him the lineup protection St. Louis would have offered, but he’ll have the luxury of the DH to help him rest throughout the season. The three-time NL MVP has averaged 40 homers with 120 RBI a .328 average through his first 11 years in the majors and should remain an elite option in Fantasy heading into 2012. Pujols will be one of the first two or three players off the board in just about every draft this season.
Prince Fielder held Fantasy owners in suspense this offseason, not signing with a new team until late January, but the news was worth the wait. Fielder decided to throw in his lot with the Tigers on a nine-year, $214 million deal, and now he gets to hit behind another elite first baseman (and soon-to-be third baseman), Miguel Cabrera. Even without someone as dangerous as Cabrera batting ahead of him, Fielder is one of the top talents in Fantasy, capable of hitting 40 home runs with an on-base percentage in excess of .400. Now, owners concerned about Fielder missing Ryan Braun hitting ahead of him can worry no longer, as Fielder has a good shot at driving in 120 or more runs for the third time in four seasons. Owners in mixed leagues should look to target him no later than early in the second round.
Fantasy owners had hoped Adrian Gonzalez would experience a surge in his power hitting when he departed San Diego's PETCO Park for Fenway Park last offseason. That surge never materialized, but Gonzalez had a splendid first year in Boston nonetheless. Though Gonzalez failed to hit 30 home runs for the first time in five years (he finished with 27), he smashed enough doubles (45) and singles (138) to post a career-high .338 batting average. While Fenway rates better as a doubles park than as a home run park, Gonzalez could get a boost to his homer total, assuming his surgically repaired shoulder is healthier this year. Even with his depleted power numbers, Gonzalez was a top three first baseman last season, and he -- along with Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols and Joey Votto -- will be among the elite again this year.
Mark Teixeira has fallen in love with flyball hitting over the last two seasons, but it hasn't done much for his Fantasy value. Even though Tex plays his home games at Yankee Stadium, he hasn't experienced a boost in his power hitting, but he has been making more flyball outs. Though he has shown that he is still capable of hitting 35 to 40 homers and driving in 100-plus runs, Teixeira's batting average has plunged from .292 to .256 to .248 over the last three years. Barring a dramatic turnaround, he won't be among the top three first basemen, as he was just a few short seasons ago, but Teixeira still provides enough power and run production to rank among the top six. That’s good enough to make him worth taking within the first two rounds of mixed league drafts.
Joey Votto was his usual productive self for the Reds last season as he posted 20-plus homers for the fourth straight season and went over the 100-RBI mark for the second year in a row. He got off to a scorching start to the year -- batting .330 with a .513 slugging percentage over the first two months -- and his average did not fall below .300 the entire season. He started to slow down after the All-Star break but still finished with 29 home runs and 103 RBI while playing in a career-high 161 games. While he was not able to match the 37 homers and 113 RBI he posted in 2010, Votto took more walks than he ever had and struck out just four more times in 52 more at-bats. There were some rumors that the Reds would try and move the 28-year-old in the offseason but after the team traded away Yonder Alonso, it appears as though Votto will be the first baseman in Cincinnati for years to come. He has become one of the premiere options in Fantasy over the last two seasons so consider Votto a Top 5 Fantasy 1B on Draft Day.
Fantasy owners will need to approach Ryan Howard with extreme caution in 2012. Of course, that much is probably obvious after the 32-year-old slugger suffered a torn left Achilles' tendon on the team's final play of the 2011 season and underwent surgery a few days later. But given his apparent decline, the caution would have been necessary even if Howard had finished the year at 100 percent. In the past, you could put up with his shortcomings because of his ability to deliver 45-plus homers, as he did every year from 2006 to 2009, but in the last two years he hasn't even reached 35. Now, he has to fight an uphill battle just to reach that reduced standard. The initial timetable called for him to miss five or six months, meaning he could return midway through April, but as with any recovery from surgery, a setback is entirely possible. A 30-homer season isn't so easy to find that you can afford to let Howard slip to the middle rounds on Draft Day, but at the same time, you have to recognize that he comes with even more risk than aging players like Paul Konerko and Lance Berkman and, therefore, deserves to go off the board after them.
After a 2010 season that seemed too good to be true, Paul Konerko again performed at an All-Star level in 2011, avoiding the steep regression that so many Fantasy owners predicted for him by hitting .300 with 31 homers, 105 RBI and a .906 OPS. So is he officially back among the game's elite? Well, not so fast. Unfortunately, much of his production came in the first half. After the All-Star break, he battled through a bruised knee and a stiff back, hitting .272 with nine homers and an .833 OPS. So here we go again. At age 36, Konerko isn't getting any younger. He's coming off a poor second half and has shown some propensity for injury. Dare you take him with an early-to-middle-round pick in 2012? Clearly, he's no Prince Fielder or even Mark Teixeira, but if you assume he's finished, you're falling into the same trap that we all did prior to 2010. You won't find many players with Konerko's ceiling in the post-steroid era, and new manager Robin Ventura plans to give the veteran slugger more time at DH in 2012, which should help keep him healthy. Konerko may not be an exciting pick for Fantasy owners, but if his age causes him to slip to Round 6 or 7, he's a bargain.
When Michael Morse hit .303 with seven homers in 132 at-bats late in 2010, a handful of Fantasy owners began buying into him as a sleeper. When he hit .364 with nine homers in 66 at-bats last spring, so did everyone else. Of course, he then hit .211 in April, sending everyone scrambling to the waiver wire for Alex Gordon or -- gulp -- Alfonso Soriano, but let's just forget about that part and bask in the glory of what was Morse's breakout season. The fact that he managed to hit .303 with 31 homers after getting off to such a miserable start shows just how locked in he was the rest of the way. He even played through a hairline fracture in his forearm in July, hitting .396 over his next 26 games. Of course, power was his primary contribution. His .550 slugging percentage ranked ninth among players with at least 500 at-bats. Morse was considered a journeyman before getting his shot with the Nationals, and his late-bloomer status might scare some Fantasy owners away on Draft Day. But given his steady buildup to the breakthrough, not to mention his 6-foot-5 frame, he certainly has the look of a middle-of-the-order hitter. Morse is a worthy starter at either first base or the outfield and likely won't slip past Round 8 or 9 in mixed leagues.
Entering 2011, Eric Hosmer was considered the best pure hitter in the minors, though still a ways away at age 21. But when he began to redefine the meaning of "pure hitter" with a .439 batting average in 98 at-bats at Triple-A Omaha, the Royals had no choice but to promote him to the majors in early May. From the outset, he was an impact player in Fantasy, batting .310 with five homers and an .844 OPS over his first 129 at-bats, and though he eventually hit a rookie wall with a .247 batting average, five homers and a .681 OPS in his next 251 at-bats, he really seemed to plant his feet for the long haul over the final six weeks, batting .357 with nine homers and a .965 OPS in 143 at-bats. If he played any other position, he'd be a candidate to go off the board in the first five rounds, but with first base being as deep as it is, he's just outside the top 10 at the position. If you're one who likes to load up on weak positions early, passing on the elite first basemen, make Hosmer your target in the seventh or eighth round. If he picks up in his sophomore season where he left off as a rookie, he might rank alongside those elite players anyway.
After a couple years of measurable progress, Billy Butler's development seems to have stalled. The 25-year-old has maintained an OPS in the mid-.800s and a batting average in the .290-.320 range over the last three seasons, which is a good thing because it means you can rely on him to be a specialist in batting average and a competent Fantasy performer overall. Then again, it also means he's not quite a star -- and perhaps never will be. The move to DH full-time last year certainly didn't help his value. Though Butler is still just beginning his prime and could potentially take another step forward in the years ahead, the days of drafting him with the expectation of that step forward are over. He'll help you fill out your lineup after the elite performers go off the board, but because he's no guarantee for 20 homers, much less 30, he's not one of those elite performers himself. With the young Royals lineup showing steady improvement, he could close the gap with an increase in runs scored and RBI (he had a career-high 95 of the latter in 2011), but you're still better off waiting until the seventh or eighth round to select him in mixed leagues.
Pegged as a breakout candidate after a solid rookie season in which he exhibited both power and patience, Ike Davis lived up to the billing over the first six weeks of 2011. But then he rolled his left ankle in a collision with David Wright on May 10, and instead of missing the projected two weeks, he missed the rest of the season. The injury simply wouldn't heal, and though the Mets looked into the possibility of surgery, Davis instead opted for extensive rehab. So far, his recovery has gone as hoped, giving Fantasy owners reason for optimism heading into 2012, but anytime a player dodges surgery, you have to wonder if he's simply delaying the inevitable. One little tweak, and Davis could be right back to square one. The longer he goes without a setback, the more his stock improves in Fantasy. If he picks up where he left off -- a likely scenario for a 24-year-old -- he could still emerge as a top-10 option at the deepest position in Fantasy. But if his ankle continues to bother him, he'll be a bust. The risk is enough to make Davis a middle-to-late-round pick on Draft Day, going off the board at about the same point as Adam Lind or Gaby Sanchez.
After following up a near-MVP performance in 2009 with a miserable 2010, Adam Lind, as you might expect, landed somewhere in the middle last year. Unfortunately, he was closer to the bad end than the good. He still produced an on-base percentage below .300. He still struck out more than three times as often as he walked. He still had nothing to contribute to Fantasy owners other than a decent number of homers. At least, that's what the final numbers say. The splits, however, tell a different story. Think back to the All-Star break, when Lind had just put together a torrid June, convincing the Fantasy-playing world that he had indeed bounced back to his 2009 form. At that point, he was hitting .300 with an .865 OPS. But he hit only .197 the rest of the way. One explanation for the steep decline is that he was hit by a pitch on the wrist in late August and was playing in pain the rest of the way, hitting only .204. Of course, it doesn't explain why he hit only .191 over the previous six weeks. Unfortunately, given the up-and-down season, the jury's still out on Lind. With back-to-back years of disappointing numbers, he's likely no more than a late-rounder on Draft Day, but at that point, you have much more to gain than lose by selecting him.
After a miserable year in Chicago in which he could never quite redeem himself in the hearts and minds of Cubs fans after a slow start, Carlos Pena is coming back home. And by home, we mean Tampa Bay, where he was an All-Star in 2009. Clearly, he isn't that player anymore -- he hasn't hit better than .227 in any of the last three seasons -- but he still offers a combination of patience and power that allows him to keep getting regular at-bats at the major-league level. True, he has fallen short of 30 homers each of the last two seasons, and if he doesn't meet that threshold, his low batting average and high strikeout rate are probably going to do him in for mixed-league purposes. But before you dismiss him as a viable option, keep in mind the slow start. He hit .235 with all 28 homers and an .871 OPS from May 1 to the end of the season. If he can start off the year that way now that he's back where he's comfortable, he still has something to offer mixed-league owners at age 33. As long as you can tolerate the drain in batting average, target Pena late as a cheap source of homers.
Brandon Belt shot up through the Giants' farm system in 2010, hitting for immense power at every level, but his rookie campaign in 2011 was not nearly so memorable. He shuttled between the majors and Triple-A Fresno, and at both levels, Belt was plagued by strikeouts and beset by some mediocre power stats. Inexplicably, when Belt did make contact, he was much more prone to hitting grounders than in the past, especially when he was at the big league level. Belt entered the 2011 season with a track record of strong plate discipline, so it may be a matter of time before he cuts back on both his swinging strikes and ground balls. It's a risk to assume those trends will occur in 2012, but Belt still offers tremendous upside. As a possible starter in either left field or first base, he is worth a flier late in mixed league drafts.
Freddie Freeman seemed destined to disappoint in Fantasy when the Braves named him their opening day starter in 2011. He looked overmatched in a September trial and, at age 21, was an obvious candidate to return to the minors. How could he possibly keep pace with the big boys at the highest-scoring position in Fantasy? Well, that's why baseball scouts and executives have their jobs and we have ours. After a slow April that more or less made him an afterthought in standard mixed leagues, the rookie found his form, batting .294 with 18 homers the rest of the way. His big breakthrough came in July, when he hit .362 with six homers and a 1.033 OPS. Though he finished the season on a down note, he proved he can clearly hold his own at first base and is already a middle-of-the-order hitter at an age when most players -- some top prospects, even -- are still toiling in the lower level of the minors. Freeman won't contend for 30 homers until he reaches his prime and could stand to improve his plate discipline, but with even a small step forward in 2012 he'll be an every-week starter in Fantasy. Target him as your corner infielder or utility player in the middle-to-late rounds.
