Albert Pujols endured a down campaign -- by his standards -- in St. Louis last season as he failed to bat over .300 and post at least 100 RBI for the first time in his career. He hit just .279 over his first 73 games before a fracture in his wrist forced him to miss time in late June. He would come back in early July -- ahead of schedule -- and returned to familiar form. He sported a .579 slugging percentage and hit 20 homers while driving in 54 runs over his final 74 games, finishing the regular season with a .299 average and 99 RBI. Pujols then had a torrid postseason to help lead the Cardinals to the World Series title. After flirting with a couple of teams in the offseason, the 31-year-old signed a 10-year deal with the Angels and is expected to continue to post huge numbers in his first season in the American League. Los Angeles won’t give him the lineup protection St. Louis would have offered, but he’ll have the luxury of the DH to help him rest throughout the season. The three-time NL MVP has averaged 40 homers with 120 RBI a .328 average through his first 11 years in the majors and should remain an elite option in Fantasy heading into 2012. Pujols will be one of the first two or three players off the board in just about every draft this season.
Joey Votto was his usual productive self for the Reds last season as he posted 20-plus homers for the fourth straight season and went over the 100-RBI mark for the second year in a row. He got off to a scorching start to the year -- batting .330 with a .513 slugging percentage over the first two months -- and his average did not fall below .300 the entire season. He started to slow down after the All-Star break but still finished with 29 home runs and 103 RBI while playing in a career-high 161 games. While he was not able to match the 37 homers and 113 RBI he posted in 2010, Votto took more walks than he ever had and struck out just four more times in 52 more at-bats. There were some rumors that the Reds would try and move the 28-year-old in the offseason but after the team traded away Yonder Alonso, it appears as though Votto will be the first baseman in Cincinnati for years to come. He has become one of the premiere options in Fantasy over the last two seasons so consider Votto a Top 5 Fantasy 1B on Draft Day.
Fantasy owners had hoped Adrian Gonzalez would experience a surge in his power hitting when he departed San Diego's PETCO Park for Fenway Park last offseason. That surge never materialized, but Gonzalez had a splendid first year in Boston nonetheless. Though Gonzalez failed to hit 30 home runs for the first time in five years (he finished with 27), he smashed enough doubles (45) and singles (138) to post a career-high .338 batting average. While Fenway rates better as a doubles park than as a home run park, Gonzalez could get a boost to his homer total, assuming his surgically repaired shoulder is healthier this year. Even with his depleted power numbers, Gonzalez was a top three first baseman last season, and he -- along with Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols and Joey Votto -- will be among the elite again this year.
Prince Fielder held Fantasy owners in suspense this offseason, not signing with a new team until late January, but the news was worth the wait. Fielder decided to throw in his lot with the Tigers on a nine-year, $214 million deal, and now he gets to hit behind another elite first baseman (and soon-to-be third baseman), Miguel Cabrera. Even without someone as dangerous as Cabrera batting ahead of him, Fielder is one of the top talents in Fantasy, capable of hitting 40 home runs with an on-base percentage in excess of .400. Now, owners concerned about Fielder missing Ryan Braun hitting ahead of him can worry no longer, as Fielder has a good shot at driving in 120 or more runs for the third time in four seasons. Owners in mixed leagues should look to target him no later than early in the second round.
Mark Teixeira has fallen in love with flyball hitting over the last two seasons, but it hasn't done much for his Fantasy value. Even though Tex plays his home games at Yankee Stadium, he hasn't experienced a boost in his power hitting, but he has been making more flyball outs. Though he has shown that he is still capable of hitting 35 to 40 homers and driving in 100-plus runs, Teixeira's batting average has plunged from .292 to .256 to .248 over the last three years. Barring a dramatic turnaround, he won't be among the top three first basemen, as he was just a few short seasons ago, but Teixeira still provides enough power and run production to rank among the top six. That’s good enough to make him worth taking within the first two rounds of mixed league drafts.
After it looked as though he could be on the verge of falling off the Fantasy map after a dreadful 2010, Lance Berkman proved his doubters wrong in his first season with the Cardinals. Playing primarily right field, he batted .290 with 24 home runs and 63 RBI in the first half to earn his first trip to the All-Star game since 2008. His numbers fell off a bit after the break but he still finished with 31 homers and 94 RBI to earn Comeback Player of the Year honors. The .547 slugging percentage he posted was his best mark since 2008 and he batted .301 for the season, which was way up from the .248 he recorded the year before. With Albert Pujols no longer in St. Louis, Berkman will become the everyday first baseman in 2012, which should help him stay healthier. He is no spring chicken at 35 years old, but Berkman proved last season that he is still a viable option in Fantasy. Target him in the early to middle rounds of mixed leagues on Draft Day.
After a 2010 season that seemed too good to be true, Paul Konerko again performed at an All-Star level in 2011, avoiding the steep regression that so many Fantasy owners predicted for him by hitting .300 with 31 homers, 105 RBI and a .906 OPS. So is he officially back among the game's elite? Well, not so fast. Unfortunately, much of his production came in the first half. After the All-Star break, he battled through a bruised knee and a stiff back, hitting .272 with nine homers and an .833 OPS. So here we go again. At age 36, Konerko isn't getting any younger. He's coming off a poor second half and has shown some propensity for injury. Dare you take him with an early-to-middle-round pick in 2012? Clearly, he's no Prince Fielder or even Mark Teixeira, but if you assume he's finished, you're falling into the same trap that we all did prior to 2010. You won't find many players with Konerko's ceiling in the post-steroid era, and new manager Robin Ventura plans to give the veteran slugger more time at DH in 2012, which should help keep him healthy. Konerko may not be an exciting pick for Fantasy owners, but if his age causes him to slip to Round 6 or 7, he's a bargain.
Entering 2011, Eric Hosmer was considered the best pure hitter in the minors, though still a ways away at age 21. But when he began to redefine the meaning of "pure hitter" with a .439 batting average in 98 at-bats at Triple-A Omaha, the Royals had no choice but to promote him to the majors in early May. From the outset, he was an impact player in Fantasy, batting .310 with five homers and an .844 OPS over his first 129 at-bats, and though he eventually hit a rookie wall with a .247 batting average, five homers and a .681 OPS in his next 251 at-bats, he really seemed to plant his feet for the long haul over the final six weeks, batting .357 with nine homers and a .965 OPS in 143 at-bats. If he played any other position, he'd be a candidate to go off the board in the first five rounds, but with first base being as deep as it is, he's just outside the top 10 at the position. If you're one who likes to load up on weak positions early, passing on the elite first basemen, make Hosmer your target in the seventh or eighth round. If he picks up in his sophomore season where he left off as a rookie, he might rank alongside those elite players anyway.
In 2011, Gaby Sanchez was the Marlins' only All Star. In 2012, he might be the team's weak link. Granted, that wouldn't be the case if he maintained an All-Star level throughout 2011, but he slumped to a .225 batting average and .679 in the second half after hitting .293 with an .846 OPS in the first half. So which Sanchez is the real Sanchez? Well, he's obviously not as bad as he looked after the All-Star break, but his hot start was a little too good to be true. At age 28 and with two full big-league seasons under his belt, Sanchez has pretty much established who he is at the big-league level. He'll approach 20 homers and get on base often enough to keep his job, but nothing more. In other words, he's exactly the type of player he projected to be coming up through the minors. Unfortunately, that type of player isn't quite good enough at an offense-driven position like first base. Sanchez is still a relevant option, particularly in leagues that employ deeper lineups with utility and corner infield spots, but he's not a difference-maker in mixed leagues. Target the higher-upside players first before settling for Sanchez in the late rounds.
Freddie Freeman seemed destined to disappoint in Fantasy when the Braves named him their opening day starter in 2011. He looked overmatched in a September trial and, at age 21, was an obvious candidate to return to the minors. How could he possibly keep pace with the big boys at the highest-scoring position in Fantasy? Well, that's why baseball scouts and executives have their jobs and we have ours. After a slow April that more or less made him an afterthought in standard mixed leagues, the rookie found his form, batting .294 with 18 homers the rest of the way. His big breakthrough came in July, when he hit .362 with six homers and a 1.033 OPS. Though he finished the season on a down note, he proved he can clearly hold his own at first base and is already a middle-of-the-order hitter at an age when most players -- some top prospects, even -- are still toiling in the lower level of the minors. Freeman won't contend for 30 homers until he reaches his prime and could stand to improve his plate discipline, but with even a small step forward in 2012 he'll be an every-week starter in Fantasy. Target him as your corner infielder or utility player in the middle-to-late rounds.
Pegged as a breakout candidate after a solid rookie season in which he exhibited both power and patience, Ike Davis lived up to the billing over the first six weeks of 2011. But then he rolled his left ankle in a collision with David Wright on May 10, and instead of missing the projected two weeks, he missed the rest of the season. The injury simply wouldn't heal, and though the Mets looked into the possibility of surgery, Davis instead opted for extensive rehab. So far, the only hitch in his recovery was a case of valley fever that developed in the offseason. Most Fantasy owners will remember valley fever as the ailment that ruined Conor Jackson as a viable option in 2009, but Davis' case likely isn't as severe. He hasn't felt fatigued this spring and also hasn't had any issues with the ankle. The longer he goes without a setback, the more his stock improves in Fantasy. If he picks up where he left off -- a likely scenario for a 24-year-old -- he could still emerge as a top-10 option at the deepest position in Fantasy, but given the risk, Davis is a middle-to-late-round pick on Draft Day, going off the board at about the same point as Freddie Freeman or Gaby Sanchez.
Carlos Lee saw a serious drop off in his average in 2010, but he mounted a bit of a comeback a season ago. He batted .275 with 94 RBI but the 18 homers he posted were his fewest since his rookie campaign. Still, he got on base at a .342 clip and slugged .446 while seeing action in 155 games. The Astros have started playing him at first base more the last few seasons and he could see most of his work there in 2012. Keeping him out of the outfield as much as possible should keep the 35-year-old healthier and productive, which should help him get back over the 20-homer mark. While he won't have much lineup protection in Houston, Lee should be one of the Astros’ few viable Fantasy options, just like he has been for more than a decade. Lee should be off the board by the later rounds in mixed leagues on Draft Day.
After a miserable year in Chicago in which he could never quite redeem himself in the hearts and minds of Cubs fans after a slow start, Carlos Pena is coming back home. And by home, we mean Tampa Bay, where he was an All-Star in 2009. Clearly, he isn't that player anymore -- he hasn't hit better than .227 in any of the last three seasons -- but he still offers a combination of patience and power that allows him to keep getting regular at-bats at the major-league level. True, he has fallen short of 30 homers each of the last two seasons, and if he doesn't meet that threshold, his low batting average and high strikeout rate are probably going to do him in for mixed-league purposes. But before you dismiss him as a viable option, keep in mind the slow start. He hit .235 with all 28 homers and an .871 OPS from May 1 to the end of the season. If he can start off the year that way now that he's back where he's comfortable, he still has something to offer mixed-league owners at age 33. As long as you can tolerate the drain in batting average, target Pena late as a cheap source of homers.
Yonder Alonso isn't any more an outfielder than Shaquille O'Neal is a rapper, but sometimes the powers that be are willing to fit a square peg into a round hole for the sake of the numbers it might generate. Unfortunately for the Reds, it was such a bad fit that they had no choice but to trade their most-developed prospect to the Padres in the offseason. With the departure of Anthony Rizzo to the Cubs, Alonso will have first base all to himself in San Diego. He's 24, has demonstrated a keen batting eye and elite OPS potential in the minors, and seemed to have no trouble adjusting to the majors late last season. The assurance of playing time is enough to make Alonso a late-round sleeper in Fantasy, though keep in mind he's going from a terrific hitter's park to arguably the worst in the majors. You shouldn't expect other-worldly power numbers from the rookie, but as long as he keeps his walks high, he'll be useful in Head-to-Head leagues.
Most players hit their peak as they head into their late 20s, but the 27-year-old James Loney looked fully in decline for most of last season. At the start of August, Loney was batting .256 with a measly 13 doubles and four home runs. Over the last two months of the season, Loney went on a rampage, pounding out 26 extra-base hits -- including eight homers -- on his way to a .357 batting average over 52 games. Loney's power spike appeared to be legitimate. All eight of his late-season homers traveled more than 390 feet, and his line drive rate spiked as well. The question for Fantasy owners on Draft Day is whether to trust the stats produced by Loney's late-year binge. To be sure, his doubles total was probably inflated by a high rate of hits on balls in play (.379 BABIP) from Aug. 1 on that he would have trouble sustaining over a full season. Another potential risk involved with drafting Loney is that he could face criminal charges stemming from a multi-car accident he was involved in back in November. Add in Loney's lengthy track record of subpar power production and owners have little reason to reach for him outside of deeper mixed leagues and NL-only formats.
