With his second 30-plus homer season and a career-high 105 RBI, Troy Tulowitzki did nothing to endanger his status as one of Fantasy's premier talents. As a top producer at one of baseball's most production-scarce positions, Tulowitzki cemented his place among Fantasy's most reliable must-start options. He was the top-ranked shortstop in standard Head-to-Head value and if not for a late-season hip injury, he may have surged ahead of Jose Reyes for the top honors in Rotisserie value as well. Tulowitzki continues to be an excellent hitter for power and contact, and the only downward trend worth noting is a reduction in stolen base attempts. Still, even without a guarantee of double-digit steals, Tulowitzki should be the first shortstop off the board on draft day, and he is likely to be taken within the first six picks in all formats.
Well, you can't say Jose Reyes didn't step up to the plate. With free agency in sight, the injury-prone 28-year-old gutted out 500-plus at-bats to put together what was by some measurements a career season. He captured his first ever batting title with a .337 batting average and set career highs in on-base percentage (.384) and OPS (.877) as well. The performance earned him a six-year deal with the Marlins, who saw him as such a good fit for their ballclub that they were willing to reorganize their infield for him, moving franchise player Hanley Ramirez to third base. But before you follow their lead and make Reyes your No. 1 target coming off a rebound season, consider what he was rebounding from. The hamstring problems that held him back in 2009 and 2010 were still present, putting him on the DL twice, and his 39 steals were a far cry from the 60 and 70 he used to provide. As he approaches 30, he's only going to get hurt more and run less, especially since he plays such a demanding position. He may be the second-best Fantasy option at that position, but mostly because the position is so weak. Any earlier than the middle of the second round is too early for Reyes.
Starlin Castro showed during his rookie campaign that he can definitely handle major-league pitching and he proved it even more emphatically in 2011 by leading the National League in hits. He batted .307 with 39 RBI and a .428 slugging percentage in the first half and earned his first trip to the All-Star game in July. He posted the same average down the stretch and finished with 10 home runs, 66 RBI and 22 stolen bases. While he struck out 96 times and walked just 35, his 207 hits were fourth-most in the majors. Some have questioned Castro's commitment to baseball -- as he was benched two games last season for mental errors -- but he definitely has the talent to be a solid option in Fantasy. He still has a ton of upside at age 21 and he could be in line for a 20-20 campaign in 2012 if he gets some of the intangibles worked out. Castro is worthy of being taken in the early rounds.
Jimmy Rollins' issues last year were the same as they've been for the last few years. He didn't hit for a particularly high batting average, and he had trouble staying on the field, missing a few weeks with a groin injury late in the season. But for the first time in four seasons, his percentages took a turn for the better. His batting average, on-base percentage and OPS were all the highest they've been since 2008, marking the first time in three seasons that they didn't decline. And with 16 homers and 30 steals, he proved he's still an elite contributor at the shortstop position. Though Rollins' best years are behind him at age 33, the Phillies clearly think he'll be able to keep it going a little longer, outbidding several teams to retain his services this offseason. Keep in mind, though, he's only two years removed from an 88-game season. Equipped with a new three-year deal, he might have a harder time overcoming those aches and pains that pop up over the course of a season. He is 33, after all. Rollins' upside makes him a top-five option at a weak position, but he's still risky enough that you wouldn't want to draft him earlier than Round 4 or 5 in standard mixed leagues.
Raise your hand if you saw that one coming last year. Put it down, liar. You drafted Asdrubal Cabrera in the late rounds like the rest of us, hoping he might give you a handful of steals and enough doubles to keep his head above water at the weak shortstop position. And yup, he delivered in both areas. But what no one saw coming -- not even himself, probably -- was the 25 homers that more than quadrupled his previous career high. So was it a fluke? Well, Cabrera is just entering his prime at age 26, and doubles often become homers at that stage of a player's career. Then again, he did slow down in the second half and had an uncharacteristically high fly-ball rate throughout the season. The safe bet is to expect some drop-off in homers but to recognize that Cabrera still took a major step forward in his development. With a rise in batting average to the .290 range, where it has been before, 16-18 homers would be enough to make him a top Fantasy shortstop, so you wouldn't want to sell him short on Draft Day. He's no Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez or Jose Reyes, but he might be the next-best player at the position and is well worth an early round pick.
Elvis Andrus saw a resurgence in his power last season and became more of an offensive shortstop while still playing some solid defense for the Rangers. After recording just 35 RBI with no home runs in 2010, he bulked up last season and finished with five long balls and a career-high 60 RBI. He also set personal bests with a .279 average and .347 on-base percentage while stealing 37 bases. He has swiped at least 32 bases in each of his first three seasons in the majors and still has time to develop power at age 23. As the table setter for one of the more potent lineups in the majors, Andrus should continue to get on base and score runs in Texas, which gives him his value in Fantasy. Target Andrus in the middle rounds of mixed leagues on Draft Day.
Alexei Ramirez hit .290 with 21 homers as a rookie in 2008 and has been trying to live up to those numbers ever since. The closest he came was in 2010, when he hit .282 with 18 homers -- and even that wasn't enough to satisfy most Fantasy owners considering his mediocre .744 OPS and miserable .313 on-base percentage that same year. At age 30, Ramirez's upside has presumably expired, and the hype on him has mercifully died down. He's anything but useless in Fantasy, having averaged 17.3 homers and 11.8 steals during his four big-league seasons, but by now, most Fantasy owners realize that he's more of a keep-your-head-above-water shortstop than a legitimate difference-maker at the position. With Asdrubal Cabrera, Emilio Bonifacio, J.J. Hardy and Erick Aybar all breaking through as relevant Fantasy options last year, Ramirez has slipped enough in the rankings that he'll likely be one of the last starting-caliber shortstops selected in mixed leagues. In leagues that use middle infield spots, he'll still go off the board in the middle rounds -- not every shortstop can hit for power, after all -- but you wouldn't want to reach for him. These days, he's more Yunel Escobar than Starlin Castro.
Three weeks into the 2011 season, it looked like the end might be near for Derek Jeter. With 16 games under his belt, Jeter was batting just .219 with one lonely extra base hit. However, from that point on, Jeter posted more typical numbers, putting up a .307/.365/.409 slash line. Despite his recovery from a poor start, there were still signs of erosion in Jeter's value. He doesn't have much power anymore, and for the second straight season, he led the majors with the highest ground ball rate among regulars. The normally durable shortstop appeared in only 131 games last season, as he missed time with a midseason calf strain. Jeter is still a top 10 shortstop, as production at the position thins out quickly after the top six, but long gone are the days when he could be considered elite. Now owners can wait until the middle rounds of mixed league drafts to nab the Yankees' captain.
Jhonny Peralta has had his share of productive seasons in Fantasy, but by one immeasurable quality, 2011 was his best. No, he didn't set career highs across the board (though his .299 batting average was a personal best), but he did perform in a way that he should be able to sustain. For the first time in his career, his "good season" didn't come with any warnings, caveats or red flags. It was simply ... good, which speaks volumes about the improvements he has made as a hitter over the years. No longer the free-swinger pushing 150 strikeouts every year, Peralta finished with less than 100 for the first time last year after dropping to 103 in 2010. And lo and behold, he still managed to hit 21 homers. He did have a stretch when he was a little too good to be true, hitting .332 with 15 homers and a .948 OPS over May, June and July, but the bottom line is he now has the bat control to post a respectable batting average along with that 20-homer pop. He doesn't rank among the elite shortstops in Fantasy, but he's a perfectly serviceable starter even in 10-team leagues.
Erick Aybar finally showed his power to Fantasy owners in 2011 and was able to play in a career-high 143 games. He hit .315 with three homers and 20 RBI over his first 44 games but went through a bit of a slump in August as he batted .190 with a .260 slugging percentage. Despite falling off a bit in the second half, Aybar set personal bests with 10 home runs and 59 RBI on the year. He also batted .279 with a .421 slugging percentage while serving as the main shortstop for the Angels. Along with solid defense, he has developed into a decent offensive player and could be just scratching the surface of his potential at age 28. The addition of Albert Pujols to the lineup should only help his value so target Aybar as a viable option in mixed leagues on Draft Day.
Yunel Escobar overcame a down 2010 season to return to doing what he does best: Getting on base and scoring runs. With his poor season behind him, Escobar went right back to being the model of consistency that he had been beforehand. In three of his four full seasons, he has hit at least .288, posted an on-base percentage of at least .366 and scored at least 70 runs. While he won't help owners much with steals or homers, Escobar draws walks and makes solid and frequent contact, the latter being demonstrated by his total of five popups last season. Escobar may not be Troy Tulowitzki or Hanley Ramirez with the bat, but he is good enough to be entrusted with a late-round pick in standard mixed leagues.
J.J. Hardy's first season in Baltimore appeared to be an unqualified success. After missing a month early in the year, Hardy went on a season-long power binge, hitting 30 home runs with 80 RBI in 129 games. It would be tempting to chalk up Hardy's increased power to his new homer-friendly digs, but there are several reasons to doubt that reasoning and to question his future power output. Hardy's first five seasons were with the Brewers, who also have a launching pad for a home park, and last year, Hardy hit equal numbers of homers on the road and at home. Also, several of Hardy's homers were short-distance jobs that just made it out of the park. In other words, we may have just seen Hardy's career year. Given that he doesn't walk, steal bases or hit for a high average, Hardy could be in for a serious fall in 2012. Despite last year's gaudy stats, owners can wait until the mid-to-late rounds to grab Hardy.
Zack Cozart isn't a flashy player, but he does everything just well enough to be an asset in Fantasy. He certainly didn't look overmatched during his brief stint in the majors last season, serving as the Reds' starting shortstop for two weeks before needing Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow in late July. Given manager Dusty Baker's history of shying away from rookies, the Reds' willingness to make Cozart the everyday player at the most important infield position with a division title still on the line tells you everything you need to know about the 26-year-old's major-league readiness, as does his performance in the role. He'll enter 2012 with the inside track on a starting job and should be recovered (from both the elbow surgery and a later ankle surgery) in time for spring training. Though his lack of plate discipline and relatively limited ceiling will likely make him no more than a late-rounder in mixed leagues, his modest power and speed could make him a bargain at that price.
As a minor league prospect, Dee Gordon showed the potential to hit .300 with 50-plus steals as a big-leaguer. In his first year with the Dodgers, Gordon delivered on that promise right away, batting .304 with 24 stolen bases in just over one-third of a season. Gordon, the son of former major league closer Tom Gordon, is an extremely aggressive hitter and owners should not expect him to help with walks or on-base percentage. However, he has the speed and contact skills to consistently produce high batting averages, and in turn, help owners with steals and runs scored. That's a profile that will give Gordon more value in Rotisserie formats, but even in Head-to-Head, he is a decent late-round option in standard mixed leagues.
So after disappointing with pitiful offensive numbers during his rookie 2010 season, Alcides Escobar turned over a new leaf in Kansas City and lived happily ever after. Yeah, you wish that's what happened. Unfortunately, Escobar took his struggles with him to the AL after coming over in the Zack Greinke deal last offseason. He was considered an elite shortstop prospect when he was coming up through the Brewers system, compiling a .293 batting average in the minors, so his lack of success at the major-league level by age 25 is more than a little discouraging. In fact, it might be reason enough to just accept that he's no more than a low-end Fantasy option. It's not like he ever demonstrated much power or a particularly high walk rate in the minors. The one improvement Escobar did make with his move to Kansas City was stealing a few more bases, but he didn't suddenly become an elite contributor in the category. If you want to find some reason for optimism, Escobar did save his best for the end of the season, hitting .324 with seven steals and an .827 OPS in September. But the bottom line is you're only going to draft him in mixed leagues if you're hurting for a middle infielder in the late rounds.
