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Eric Mack

Draft preview: Los Angeles Dodgers outlook

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Team-by-team outlooks

The Dodgers don't have a masher in their lineup, but they have a lot of those middle-round Fantasy breakout and sleepers to pick through.

One of the best farm systems in baseball has already produced Russell Martin, Chad Billingsley, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, but expect this to be another year where a few more Dodgers prospects make surprising midseason runs at Rookie of the Year honors. Their big-time young talent that will eventually be some of the most-soughted after on Draft Day.

The injury-risk veterans Nomar Garciaparra and Jeff Kent are still around and worthy of starting for your Fantasy teams in any league, but even if they go down with yet another extended injury, there is big-time talent waiting in the wings. Nomar is currently blocking James Loney, who has easy power and could develop into a .300-30-100 slugger by the age of 27. Kent is vertiably old, if not injury-prone, but if he goes down, Wilson Betemit could slide over from third base to second and pave the way for a future Fantasy star in Andy LaRoche, the younger brother of Adam LaRoche.

Andy has a sweet swing and even more offensive potential than his brother. Even if he starts the year in the minor leagues, you should keep in mind where Martin, Billingsley, Ethier and Kemp started last season before providing big dividends.

Spring position battles

Starting pitcher No. 5 -- Chad Billingsley vs. Mark Hendrickson and Hong-Chih Kuo

Billingsley will retain his rotation spot, barring injury, so Hendrickson and Kuo are really waiting for an injury, a trade of Brad Penny or Penny being moved to the closer's role (unlikely at this point). Billingsley is as talented as any pitching prospect in baseball, but he's wild now and his Fantasy owners will have to deal with five-inning outings, or less. He runs high pitch counts, much like Penny does, and the Dodgers are not going to stretch him out like a Carlos Zambrano for a couple more years. He's too valuable to the organization. Consider Billingsley a potentially overlooked sophomore sleeper in the mid-to-late rounds. Hendrickson and Kuo are nothing more than middle men for the deepest of leagues that use them.

Right field -- Andre Ethier vs. Matt Kemp and James Loney

Kemp has the most long-term potential here. In fact, Sandy Alomar Jr. said Kemp is a budding Manny Ramirez in the flesh. Alomar would know, too, because he watched Manny and Kemp each develop as teammates. Ethier is coming off a promising rookie season, though, and will be the incumbent favorite likely to have the job to start the season. He's another potentially overlooked sophomore in deeper leagues. Loney is a potential NL Rookie of the Year candidate, but the re-signing of Nomar Garciaparra blocks him -- at least until Nomar gets hurt. Consider all three of these guys must-haves in deeper NL-only formats. There is outstanding potential here if any one of them gets full-time at-bats.

Third base -- Wilson Betemit vs. Andy LaRoche

Betemit finally gets a full-time chance to make good on his two-time minor-league player of the year status when he was with the Braves, but along comes the next big thing to potentially block him. LaRoche is going to be a big-time slugger in this league and if it doesn't happen this spring, he should at least arrive by midseason. Consider Betemit a 27-year-old breakout and a new starter sleeper worth having in any league, but only if LaRoche doesn't steal his thunder -- and his job -- in spring training. LaRoche is a must-have minor-leaguer in formats where you can afford to stash guys for a few months.

Los Angeles Dodgers Outlook
Projected lineup Pos. Projected Rotation
1 Juan Pierre CF 1 Jason Schmidt RH
2 Rafael Furcal SS 2 Derek Lowe RH
3 Nomar Garciaparra 1B 3 Brad Penny RH
4 Jeff Kent 2B 4 Randy Wolf LH
5 Luis E. Gonzalez LF 5 Chad Billingsley RH
6 Andre Ethier RF Alt Mark Hendrickson LH
7 Wilson Betemit 3B Top bullpen arms
8 Russell Martin C CL Takashi Saito RH
Top bench options SU Jonathan Broxton RH
R Matt Kemp OF RP Hong-Chih Kuo LH
R James Loney 1B/OF RP Joe Beimel LH
Rookies/Prospects Age Pos. 2006 high Destination
1 Andy LaRoche 23 3B Triple-A Triple-A
Consider him an NL ROY favorite if he beats out Betemit in spring
2 James Loney 22 1B Majors Triple-A
If not for Nomar returning, future monster would be highly sought
3 Scott Elbert 21 LH SP Double-A Double-A
LH version of 2006's Billingsley could arrive in the second half
4 Delwyn Young 24 OF Majors Triple-A
His pop was more impressive when he was a 2B, but still intrigues
5 Blake Dewitt 21 2B Double-A Double-A
Might be best 2B prospect in minors this year (a thin position now)
Best of the rest: RHP Greg Miller, 22; RHP Jonathan Meloan, 22; 2B Tony Abreu, 22; LHP Clayton Kershaw, 19; 2B Travis Denker, 21; 3B Josh Bell, 20; SS Ivan DeJesus Jr., 19; SS Chin-Lung Hu, 23; RHP Justin Orenduff, 24; RHP Zach Hammes, 22; 1B Cory Dunlap, 22; SS Preston Mattingly, 19; RHP Steven Johnson, 19; LHP Mike Megrew, 23; UTL Carlos Santana, 20; OF Xavier Paul, 22.

You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Dodgers outlook in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Dice-K throwing off mound
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, BOS
11:52 AM
News: The Boston Globe reports while Red Sox pitchers and catchers don't officially have to report until Sunday, some players have arrived early, including SP Daisuke Matsuzaka. The paper noted that Matsuzaka, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery in June, was throwing off a mound with manager Bobby Valentine watching.
Analysis: Clearly, the fact Dice-K is already throwing off a mound is good news. However, we still have to temper expectations. It usually takes pitchers 12-18 months to recover from Tommy John surgery, so we aren't expecting to see Dice-K in a major-league game until mid-summer. We will continue to update his progress as the news warrants, but Dice-K is merely a draft-and-stash option in the deepest of Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

David Ortiz
Ortiz settles before hearing
David Ortiz, DH, BOS
11:11 AM
News: DH David Ortiz and the Red Sox came to terms on a one-year contract hours before the two sides were set to go to an arbitration hearing. Ortiz signed a one-year, $14.575 million contract.
Analysis: Now that Ortiz has this business out of the way he can get down to focusing on the baseball aspect of things. Ortiz hit .309 with 29 homers and 96 RBI in 2011. He is DH-eligible only in Fantasy, which hurts his appeal a bit. But Ortiz remains a viable early-to-mid-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day.

Chris Snyder
Snyder fully recovered from surgery
Chris Snyder, C, HOU
12:27 PM
News: The Houston Chronicle reports Astros catcher Chris Snyder said he is fully recovered from the back surgery he had in June.
Analysis: A lot of folks feel Snyder will make the Astros roster out of camp, but he still needs to prove he is past his back problem, which robbed him of most of the 2011 season with Pittsburgh. Manager Brad Mills has already said Jason Castro is the team's starting catcher, but he is recovering from foot surgery and isn't expected to be ready for spring games until the second week of the exhibition schedule. In the meantime, Snyder will be battling Humberto Quintero for the backup role. Snyder has decent pop for a catcher, but his strength is defense. Snyder is more of an NL-only Fantasy option.

Ian Desmond
Nats convinced Desmond will re-emerge
Ian Desmond, SS, WAS
11:41 AM
News: CSN Washington reports the Nationals are convinced shortstop Ian Desmond is in for a bounce-back season in 2012 because of two trends they spotted in 2011. The first is that Desmond made significant strides at the plate in the second half of last season. After hitting .223 with a .264 OBP and .308 slugging percentage before the All-Star break, Desmond hit .289 with a .338 OBP and .417 slugging percentage down the stretch. He really thrived when manager Davey Johnson made him the leadoff hitter, which is a position he is expected to keep heading into the spring. The second trend is that Desmond's defense improved as the season progressed. He committed seven errors in his first 20 games and just 16 over his final 134.
Analysis: A lot of folks were excited about Desmond's 2011 outlook after he played well in his first two MLB stints in 2009 and 2010. Unfortunately, Desmond took a step back last year and will plummet down Fantasy draft boards because of it. Clearly, there is potential with Desmond. But don't reach for him on Draft Day. Let him fall to the late rounds in mixed leagues and hope that you grab a bounce-back candidate.

Phil Hughes
Hughes appears ready to compete
Phil Hughes, SP, NYY
11:26 AM
News: Newsday reports Yankees SP Phil Hughes, who looks noticeably slimmer and more muscular, said he weighs about 240 pounds. He added that in the offseason he changed his "body composition."
Analysis: The early word from Yankees camp is that Hughes is in shape and ready to compete for a spot in the rotation. Although, he is on the outside looking in if the Yankees don't trade A.J. Burnett. Though, if Hughes proves to be more valuable in the rotation than the bullpen, then the Yankees might have to reconsider his role in 2012. Let's see how Hughes does this spring training before making a final evaluation about his 2012 outlook, but clearly him being in shape is a good start. Hughes could be a viable Fantasy option again if he returns to the 18-8 pitcher he was in 2010.

Jon Garland
Garland gets shot with Indians
Jon Garland, SP, LAD
10:37 AM
News: The Indians signed SP Jon Garland to a minor-league deal on Monday. Garland, who last pitched for the Dodgers, was limited to only nine starts last season before having arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder in June.
Analysis: Garland will most likely compete with Kevin Slowey for the final spot in the Indians rotation, but he's a hittable pitcher who now may be working with less than his best stuff coming off shoulder surgery. Even if he's able to win a rotation spot, he won't be worth drafting outside of deeper AL-only leagues.

A.J. Burnett
Yanks, Pirates still talking Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
2/12/2012
News: The New York Daily News reports the Yankees and Pirates continued to talk Sunday about completing a trade for A.J. Burnett, but a baseball source said the sides are still "a good ways away" from agreeing on the final terms. The source added the Pirates are willing to pay $10 million of the remaining $33 million Burnett is owed over the next two seasons, but Pittsburgh has offered "two borderline prospects" in return. The Yankees could be willing to pay more of Burnett's remaining contract if they receive a top-tier prospect from Pittsburgh. A person familiar with the Yankees' thinking believes there is enough common ground that a deal could be completed in the coming days. However, ESPN.com reports their source said the Yankees aren't desperate to make a trade and the team would go to spring training with Burnett if a deal isn't completed.
Analysis: Leaving the Yankees usually has a negative impact on a player's Fantasy value, but in Burnett's case it might be the opposite, especially if he moves to the NL. He has struggled to handle the pressure of pitching in New York and a fresh start could be what he needs. Burnett had some of his best years in the majors pitching in the NL. Still, Burnett would be nothing more than a risky late-round Fantasy pick in mixed leagues.

Josh Johnson
JJ continues to feel no discomfort
Josh Johnson, SP, MIA
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Marlins SP Josh Johnson arrived to the team's spring training complex in Jupiter, Fla., on Feb. 9, more than a week ahead of the Marlins reporting date for pitchers and catchers. Johnson, who has been throwing off a mound near his home in Las Vegas, threw his first bullpen session of the year in Florida on Feb. 10. He felt no discomfort and expects to be ready for the first workouts on Feb. 22. He made only nine starts last year because of shoulder issues.
Analysis: Any encouraging news regarding JJ is welcomed. But Fantasy owners do have to be aware of the risk of drafting him. Of course his potential makes it worth it, but JJ has made it past 30 starts just once in his career. Look to Johnson as more of a No. 2 Fantasy SP on Draft Day, but clearly he has the potential to be your ace if he can stay healthy.

Hunter Pence
Pence likely to hit cleanup
Hunter Pence, RF, PHI
2/12/2012
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports Phillies manager Charlie Manuel has to find a cleanup hitter with Ryan Howard expected to miss the beginning of the season recovering from an Achilles injury, and he said his choice going into spring training is Hunter Pence.
Analysis: Pence either hit right in front of or right behind Howard after his acquisition from Houston last season and thrived in the Phillies lineup. He will miss Howard's lineup protection, but might only have to play a month without Howard. In the meantime, Pence should get plenty of RBI chances batting cleanup, and he will still have plenty of lineup protection without Howard. Look to Pence in the early rounds of Fantasy drafts.

Jason Vargas
Vargas expected to pitch in A's series
Jason Vargas, SP, SEA
2/12/2012
News: Mariners manager Eric Wedge hinted Sunday that ace Felix Hernandez and Jason Vargas are the leading candidates to start the team's first two games against the A's in Japan. "That's one of the reasons we're here early, to make sure we get Felix ready and we're probably looking at Vargas right now in regard to the first couple games," Wedge said, as reported by MLB.com. "It is a little odd, but that's OK. That's part of it. We're professionals here and we have to get multiple starters prepared for the regular season. It's not just about those two guys, it's about everybody else as well. We've got a lot of starting pitchers here in camp and we'll see how it plays out. I'm looking forward to the competition."
Analysis: Believe it or not, but Vargas is arguably the M's second-best pitcher heading into spring training. He has been a steady part of the M's rotation the last two seasons. He is 19-25 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 63 starts since the beginning of the 2010 campaign. However, he is not a dominant pitcher and has weak strikeout totals, so Vargas is nothing more than a low-end Fantasy SP on Draft Day.

 
 
 
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