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Eric Mack

Draft preview: San Diego Padres outlook

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Team-by-team outlooks

Adrian Gonzalez is so good, he could single-handedly change this opinion, but if you're looking for Fantasy players in San Diego, it should be a pitcher.

Jake Peavy is a potential Cy Young winner. Chris R. Young is a big-time third-year starting pitcher breakout. Greg Maddux is a solid veteran who should be bouyed by Petco Park. Clay Hensley is quietly one of the best starters you might have never heard of. (Forget David Wells, he's just here to take up innings and space -- a lot of it.) Trevor Hoffman remains one of the steady veteran closers worth trusting -- especially behind that rotation and solid bullpen -- which will have the added expertise of new manager (ex-Angels pitching coach) Bud Black.

We do like Khalil Greene as a 27-year-old breakout candidate and he might even qualify as a sleeper, too, because he could go off the board after 10 other shortstops on Draft Day.

But, he better be good, because that Padres lineup won't scare anyone if Gonzalez cannot get pitches to hit.

Spring position battles

Third base -- Kevin Kouzmanoff vs. Russell Branyan, Todd Walker and Chase Headley

If the Padres gave up Josh Barfield to start Branyan or Walker, the GM deserves to be fired. Kouz, the 2006 prospect surprise who flirted with .400 in Double- and Triple-A, has good offensive potential and ranks in our top 10 rookies to target on Draft Day. He's going to start the season as a low-end option at third base in a standard mixed league, but he could finish as a surprisingly productive one and as an NL Rookie of the Year -- even in that pitcher's park. Branyan and Walker are nothing more than NL-only reserves, while Headley is a long-term keeper prospect worth keeping an eye on. He could push the defensively shaky Kouz to the outfield.

Left field -- Terrmel Sledge vs. Jose Cruz, Paul McAnulty and Jack Cust

Sledge should easily win this position battle, but the question is how healthy can he stay and how productive can he be? Frankly, he looks like a reserve outfielder who will get more at-bats than he really deserves. His open opportunity makes him a sleeper for deeper NL-only leagues at least, though. McAnulty has a sneaky-good bat as a flier for the deepest of NL-only formats, while Cruz and Cust should be in your Fantasy rear-view mirror now.

San Diego Padres Outlook
Projected lineup Pos. Projected Rotation
1 Marcus Giles 2B 1 Jake Peavy RH
2 Terrmel Sledge LF 2 Chris R. Young RH
3 Brian Giles RF 3 Greg Maddux RH
4 Adrian Gonzalez 1B 4 Clay Hensley RH
5 Khalil Greene SS 5 David Wells LH
6 Mike Cameron CF Alt Mike Thompson RH
7 Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B Top bullpen arms
8 Josh Bard C CL Trevor Hoffman RH
Top bench options SU Scott Linebrink RH
R Russell Branyan 3B/OF RP Cla Meredith RH
R Todd Walker UTL RP Scott Cassidy RH
Rookies/Prospects Age Pos. 2006 high Destination
1 Kevin Kouzmanoff 25 3B Majors Majors
You don't trade a Josh Barfield unless you have a conviction here
2 Cesar Carrillo 22 RH SP Triple-A Triple-A
If he doesn't need elbow surgery, he's a big-time sleeper prospect
3 Chase Headley 22 3B Class A Double-A
He could turn Kouz into an outfielder before the start of 2008
4 Paul McAnulty 26 1B/OF Majors Majors
Very good bat, but one without a position; he could surprise us
5 Will Venable 24 OF Class A Class A
Max Venable's son projects as a reserve outfielder at this point
Best of the rest: LHP Sean Thompson, 24; OF Chad Huffman, 21; C Nick Hundley, 23; RHP Jared Wells, 25; LHP Royce Ring, 26; LHP Cesar Ramos, 22; OF Cedric Hunter, 19; 3B Matt Antonelli, 21; C Colt Morton, 24; 3B David Freese, 23; LHP Wade LeBlanc, 22; SS Matt Bush, 21; 2B Luis Cruz, 23; RHP Andrew Brown, 26; 1B Kyle Blanks, 20.

You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Padres outlook in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Dice-K throwing off mound
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, BOS
11:52 AM
News: The Boston Globe reports while Red Sox pitchers and catchers don't officially have to report until Sunday, some players have arrived early, including SP Daisuke Matsuzaka. The paper noted that Matsuzaka, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery in June, was throwing off a mound with manager Bobby Valentine watching.
Analysis: Clearly, the fact Dice-K is already throwing off a mound is good news. However, we still have to temper expectations. It usually takes pitchers 12-18 months to recover from Tommy John surgery, so we aren't expecting to see Dice-K in a major-league game until mid-summer. We will continue to update his progress as the news warrants, but Dice-K is merely a draft-and-stash option in the deepest of Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

David Ortiz
Ortiz settles before hearing
David Ortiz, DH, BOS
11:11 AM
News: DH David Ortiz and the Red Sox came to terms on a one-year contract hours before the two sides were set to go to an arbitration hearing. Ortiz signed a one-year, $14.575 million contract.
Analysis: Now that Ortiz has this business out of the way he can get down to focusing on the baseball aspect of things. Ortiz hit .309 with 29 homers and 96 RBI in 2011. He is DH-eligible only in Fantasy, which hurts his appeal a bit. But Ortiz remains a viable early-to-mid-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day.

Chris Snyder
Snyder fully recovered from surgery
Chris Snyder, C, HOU
12:27 PM
News: The Houston Chronicle reports Astros catcher Chris Snyder said he is fully recovered from the back surgery he had in June.
Analysis: A lot of folks feel Snyder will make the Astros roster out of camp, but he still needs to prove he is past his back problem, which robbed him of most of the 2011 season with Pittsburgh. Manager Brad Mills has already said Jason Castro is the team's starting catcher, but he is recovering from foot surgery and isn't expected to be ready for spring games until the second week of the exhibition schedule. In the meantime, Snyder will be battling Humberto Quintero for the backup role. Snyder has decent pop for a catcher, but his strength is defense. Snyder is more of an NL-only Fantasy option.

Ian Desmond
Nats convinced Desmond will re-emerge
Ian Desmond, SS, WAS
11:41 AM
News: CSN Washington reports the Nationals are convinced shortstop Ian Desmond is in for a bounce-back season in 2012 because of two trends they spotted in 2011. The first is that Desmond made significant strides at the plate in the second half of last season. After hitting .223 with a .264 OBP and .308 slugging percentage before the All-Star break, Desmond hit .289 with a .338 OBP and .417 slugging percentage down the stretch. He really thrived when manager Davey Johnson made him the leadoff hitter, which is a position he is expected to keep heading into the spring. The second trend is that Desmond's defense improved as the season progressed. He committed seven errors in his first 20 games and just 16 over his final 134.
Analysis: A lot of folks were excited about Desmond's 2011 outlook after he played well in his first two MLB stints in 2009 and 2010. Unfortunately, Desmond took a step back last year and will plummet down Fantasy draft boards because of it. Clearly, there is potential with Desmond. But don't reach for him on Draft Day. Let him fall to the late rounds in mixed leagues and hope that you grab a bounce-back candidate.

Phil Hughes
Hughes appears ready to compete
Phil Hughes, SP, NYY
11:26 AM
News: Newsday reports Yankees SP Phil Hughes, who looks noticeably slimmer and more muscular, said he weighs about 240 pounds. He added that in the offseason he changed his "body composition."
Analysis: The early word from Yankees camp is that Hughes is in shape and ready to compete for a spot in the rotation. Although, he is on the outside looking in if the Yankees don't trade A.J. Burnett. Though, if Hughes proves to be more valuable in the rotation than the bullpen, then the Yankees might have to reconsider his role in 2012. Let's see how Hughes does this spring training before making a final evaluation about his 2012 outlook, but clearly him being in shape is a good start. Hughes could be a viable Fantasy option again if he returns to the 18-8 pitcher he was in 2010.

Jon Garland
Garland gets shot with Indians
Jon Garland, SP, LAD
10:37 AM
News: The Indians signed SP Jon Garland to a minor-league deal on Monday. Garland, who last pitched for the Dodgers, was limited to only nine starts last season before having arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder in June.
Analysis: Garland will most likely compete with Kevin Slowey for the final spot in the Indians rotation, but he's a hittable pitcher who now may be working with less than his best stuff coming off shoulder surgery. Even if he's able to win a rotation spot, he won't be worth drafting outside of deeper AL-only leagues.

A.J. Burnett
Yanks, Pirates still talking Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
2/12/2012
News: The New York Daily News reports the Yankees and Pirates continued to talk Sunday about completing a trade for A.J. Burnett, but a baseball source said the sides are still "a good ways away" from agreeing on the final terms. The source added the Pirates are willing to pay $10 million of the remaining $33 million Burnett is owed over the next two seasons, but Pittsburgh has offered "two borderline prospects" in return. The Yankees could be willing to pay more of Burnett's remaining contract if they receive a top-tier prospect from Pittsburgh. A person familiar with the Yankees' thinking believes there is enough common ground that a deal could be completed in the coming days. However, ESPN.com reports their source said the Yankees aren't desperate to make a trade and the team would go to spring training with Burnett if a deal isn't completed.
Analysis: Leaving the Yankees usually has a negative impact on a player's Fantasy value, but in Burnett's case it might be the opposite, especially if he moves to the NL. He has struggled to handle the pressure of pitching in New York and a fresh start could be what he needs. Burnett had some of his best years in the majors pitching in the NL. Still, Burnett would be nothing more than a risky late-round Fantasy pick in mixed leagues.

Josh Johnson
JJ continues to feel no discomfort
Josh Johnson, SP, MIA
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Marlins SP Josh Johnson arrived to the team's spring training complex in Jupiter, Fla., on Feb. 9, more than a week ahead of the Marlins reporting date for pitchers and catchers. Johnson, who has been throwing off a mound near his home in Las Vegas, threw his first bullpen session of the year in Florida on Feb. 10. He felt no discomfort and expects to be ready for the first workouts on Feb. 22. He made only nine starts last year because of shoulder issues.
Analysis: Any encouraging news regarding JJ is welcomed. But Fantasy owners do have to be aware of the risk of drafting him. Of course his potential makes it worth it, but JJ has made it past 30 starts just once in his career. Look to Johnson as more of a No. 2 Fantasy SP on Draft Day, but clearly he has the potential to be your ace if he can stay healthy.

Hunter Pence
Pence likely to hit cleanup
Hunter Pence, RF, PHI
2/12/2012
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports Phillies manager Charlie Manuel has to find a cleanup hitter with Ryan Howard expected to miss the beginning of the season recovering from an Achilles injury, and he said his choice going into spring training is Hunter Pence.
Analysis: Pence either hit right in front of or right behind Howard after his acquisition from Houston last season and thrived in the Phillies lineup. He will miss Howard's lineup protection, but might only have to play a month without Howard. In the meantime, Pence should get plenty of RBI chances batting cleanup, and he will still have plenty of lineup protection without Howard. Look to Pence in the early rounds of Fantasy drafts.

Jason Vargas
Vargas expected to pitch in A's series
Jason Vargas, SP, SEA
2/12/2012
News: Mariners manager Eric Wedge hinted Sunday that ace Felix Hernandez and Jason Vargas are the leading candidates to start the team's first two games against the A's in Japan. "That's one of the reasons we're here early, to make sure we get Felix ready and we're probably looking at Vargas right now in regard to the first couple games," Wedge said, as reported by MLB.com. "It is a little odd, but that's OK. That's part of it. We're professionals here and we have to get multiple starters prepared for the regular season. It's not just about those two guys, it's about everybody else as well. We've got a lot of starting pitchers here in camp and we'll see how it plays out. I'm looking forward to the competition."
Analysis: Believe it or not, but Vargas is arguably the M's second-best pitcher heading into spring training. He has been a steady part of the M's rotation the last two seasons. He is 19-25 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 63 starts since the beginning of the 2010 campaign. However, he is not a dominant pitcher and has weak strikeout totals, so Vargas is nothing more than a low-end Fantasy SP on Draft Day.

 
 
 
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