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David Gonos

Draft preview: Texas Rangers outlook

Team-by-team outlooks

The Rangers bring in a handful of new faces to join a squad that was one game away from a .500 record a season ago. Only three AL teams outscored Texas in 2006, but for a team notorious for giving up a ton of homers, they were only ranked 13th in home runs in the majors.

Also, don't count on many steals from this squad. Only the Braves and Red Sox had fewer successful steals then Texas' 53 last year.

As far as their pitching staff goes, they traded their top pitching prospect John Danks away for Brandon McCarthy. The latter has been groomed on a World Series staff for the past two seasons and is ready for a breakout season. He'll work as their third starter behind leftovers Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla.

Eric Gagne was signed to close games out in Arlington, which means that their primary closer from a year ago, Akinori Otsuka, will move back to the setup role he had mastered in San Diego in 2005. If Gagne can stay healthy, this bullpen can be a huge help for the Rangers' staff.

Sammy Sosa signed a minor league contract with Texas this winter, but the odds of him making the team as the right fielder or designated hitter are slim considering he hit only .221 in his last year in Baltimore (2005).

Gerald Laird finally gets his chance as the Rangers' No. 1 catcher. He takes over for departed free agent Rod Barajas and Texas should feel a boost both offensively as well as behind the plate. Laird has been beset by injuries over the past few years, specifically in 2004, when he tore a ligament in his left thumb. He had beaten out Barajas for the job that spring, but was unable to play. Once he finally stuck in the majors (in 2006), he was still sharing time. His stellar defensive presence is evidenced by the fact that the Rangers' staff ERA was 4.39 (down from 4.60) with him behind the plate. According to MLB.com, that was the eighth-lowest catcher's ERA in the AL for a catcher with over 500 innings.

Bruce Chen was 0-7 with a 6.93 ERA in 40 games with Baltimore last season. But he went 5-0 with a 0.72 ERA in the Puerto Rican Winter League, so the Rangers signed him to a minor league contract with a non-roster invitation to spring training. The Rangers hope they can coax the 2005 version out of Chen -- he went 13-10 with a 3.83 ERA for Baltimore. "That is quite a turnaround," pitching coach Mark Connor told MLB.com. "I want to talk to him a little bit and get some of his thoughts on what went wrong and what we can do to fix it." Chen will compete with Jamey Wright, Josh Rupe, Kameron Loe, John Koronka and Edinson Volquez for that fifth starter's spot.

Spring position battles

Fourth and fifth SPs -- John Koronka, Bruce Chen, Jamey Wright, Josh Rupe, Edinson Volquez vs. Thomas Diamond

From a Fantasy vantage point, all of these pitchers are gambles even in AL-only formats.

Designated hitter -- Frank Catalanotto, Jason Botts vs. Sammy Sosa

Catalanotto is the safe bet, Botts is the player with the most upside and Sosa is the longshot. The first two will likely get drafted in the reserve drafts of many mixed leagues, whereas Sosa has been out of baseball for over a year and AL-only leaguers are the only ones that should be willing to gamble.

Texas Rangers Outlook
Projected lineup Pos. Projected Rotation
1 Kenny Lofton CF 1 Kevin Millwood RH
2 Michael Young SS 2 Vicente Padilla LH
3 Mark Teixeira 1B 3 Brandon McCarthy RH
4 Hank Blalock 3B 4 Robinson Tejeda LH
5 Brad Wilkerson LF 5 John Koronka LH
6 Frank Catalanotto DH Alt Bruce Chen LH
7 Ian Kinsler 2B
8 Nelson Cruz RF Top bullpen arms
9 Gerald Laird C CL Eric Gagne RH
Top bench options SU Akinori Otsuka RH
R Jason Botts 1B/OF RP Wes Littleton RH
R Sammy Sosa DH RP Ron Mahay LH
     
Rookies/Prospects Age Pos. 2006 high Destination
1 Jason Botts 26 DH Majors Majors
Big power man has wide-open opportunity in still great hitter's park
2 Edinson Volquez 23 RH SP Majors Majors
Only worth a spot this high if he reaches potential and makes rotation
3 Thomas Diamond 23 RH SP Double-A Triple-A
Lost some high-end luster, but should develop into solid starter
4 Joaquin Arias 22 SS Majors Triple-A
Plus speed but blocked by two studly Fantasy stars at SS/2B
5 Eric Hurley 21 RH SP Double-A Double-A
Their top-rated prospect now according to Baseball America
Best of the rest: RHP Wes Littleton, 24; OF John Mayberry Jr., 23; RHP Josh Rupe, 24; RHP Nick Masset, 24; C Taylor Teagarden, 23; 1B Chris Davis, 21; RHP Francisco Cruceta, 25.

You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Rangers outlook in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Dice-K throwing off mound
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, BOS
11:52 AM
News: The Boston Globe reports while Red Sox pitchers and catchers don't officially have to report until Sunday, some players have arrived early, including SP Daisuke Matsuzaka. The paper noted that Matsuzaka, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery in June, was throwing off a mound with manager Bobby Valentine watching.
Analysis: Clearly, the fact Dice-K is already throwing off a mound is good news. However, we still have to temper expectations. It usually takes pitchers 12-18 months to recover from Tommy John surgery, so we aren't expecting to see Dice-K in a major-league game until mid-summer. We will continue to update his progress as the news warrants, but Dice-K is merely a draft-and-stash option in the deepest of Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

David Ortiz
Ortiz settles before hearing
David Ortiz, DH, BOS
11:11 AM
News: DH David Ortiz and the Red Sox came to terms on a one-year contract hours before the two sides were set to go to an arbitration hearing. Ortiz signed a one-year, $14.575 million contract.
Analysis: Now that Ortiz has this business out of the way he can get down to focusing on the baseball aspect of things. Ortiz hit .309 with 29 homers and 96 RBI in 2011. He is DH-eligible only in Fantasy, which hurts his appeal a bit. But Ortiz remains a viable early-to-mid-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day.

Chris Snyder
Snyder fully recovered from surgery
Chris Snyder, C, HOU
12:27 PM
News: The Houston Chronicle reports Astros catcher Chris Snyder said he is fully recovered from the back surgery he had in June.
Analysis: A lot of folks feel Snyder will make the Astros roster out of camp, but he still needs to prove he is past his back problem, which robbed him of most of the 2011 season with Pittsburgh. Manager Brad Mills has already said Jason Castro is the team's starting catcher, but he is recovering from foot surgery and isn't expected to be ready for spring games until the second week of the exhibition schedule. In the meantime, Snyder will be battling Humberto Quintero for the backup role. Snyder has decent pop for a catcher, but his strength is defense. Snyder is more of an NL-only Fantasy option.

Ian Desmond
Nats convinced Desmond will re-emerge
Ian Desmond, SS, WAS
11:41 AM
News: CSN Washington reports the Nationals are convinced shortstop Ian Desmond is in for a bounce-back season in 2012 because of two trends they spotted in 2011. The first is that Desmond made significant strides at the plate in the second half of last season. After hitting .223 with a .264 OBP and .308 slugging percentage before the All-Star break, Desmond hit .289 with a .338 OBP and .417 slugging percentage down the stretch. He really thrived when manager Davey Johnson made him the leadoff hitter, which is a position he is expected to keep heading into the spring. The second trend is that Desmond's defense improved as the season progressed. He committed seven errors in his first 20 games and just 16 over his final 134.
Analysis: A lot of folks were excited about Desmond's 2011 outlook after he played well in his first two MLB stints in 2009 and 2010. Unfortunately, Desmond took a step back last year and will plummet down Fantasy draft boards because of it. Clearly, there is potential with Desmond. But don't reach for him on Draft Day. Let him fall to the late rounds in mixed leagues and hope that you grab a bounce-back candidate.

Phil Hughes
Hughes appears ready to compete
Phil Hughes, SP, NYY
11:26 AM
News: Newsday reports Yankees SP Phil Hughes, who looks noticeably slimmer and more muscular, said he weighs about 240 pounds. He added that in the offseason he changed his "body composition."
Analysis: The early word from Yankees camp is that Hughes is in shape and ready to compete for a spot in the rotation. Although, he is on the outside looking in if the Yankees don't trade A.J. Burnett. Though, if Hughes proves to be more valuable in the rotation than the bullpen, then the Yankees might have to reconsider his role in 2012. Let's see how Hughes does this spring training before making a final evaluation about his 2012 outlook, but clearly him being in shape is a good start. Hughes could be a viable Fantasy option again if he returns to the 18-8 pitcher he was in 2010.

Jon Garland
Garland gets shot with Indians
Jon Garland, SP, LAD
10:37 AM
News: The Indians signed SP Jon Garland to a minor-league deal on Monday. Garland, who last pitched for the Dodgers, was limited to only nine starts last season before having arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder in June.
Analysis: Garland will most likely compete with Kevin Slowey for the final spot in the Indians rotation, but he's a hittable pitcher who now may be working with less than his best stuff coming off shoulder surgery. Even if he's able to win a rotation spot, he won't be worth drafting outside of deeper AL-only leagues.

A.J. Burnett
Yanks, Pirates still talking Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
2/12/2012
News: The New York Daily News reports the Yankees and Pirates continued to talk Sunday about completing a trade for A.J. Burnett, but a baseball source said the sides are still "a good ways away" from agreeing on the final terms. The source added the Pirates are willing to pay $10 million of the remaining $33 million Burnett is owed over the next two seasons, but Pittsburgh has offered "two borderline prospects" in return. The Yankees could be willing to pay more of Burnett's remaining contract if they receive a top-tier prospect from Pittsburgh. A person familiar with the Yankees' thinking believes there is enough common ground that a deal could be completed in the coming days. However, ESPN.com reports their source said the Yankees aren't desperate to make a trade and the team would go to spring training with Burnett if a deal isn't completed.
Analysis: Leaving the Yankees usually has a negative impact on a player's Fantasy value, but in Burnett's case it might be the opposite, especially if he moves to the NL. He has struggled to handle the pressure of pitching in New York and a fresh start could be what he needs. Burnett had some of his best years in the majors pitching in the NL. Still, Burnett would be nothing more than a risky late-round Fantasy pick in mixed leagues.

Josh Johnson
JJ continues to feel no discomfort
Josh Johnson, SP, MIA
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Marlins SP Josh Johnson arrived to the team's spring training complex in Jupiter, Fla., on Feb. 9, more than a week ahead of the Marlins reporting date for pitchers and catchers. Johnson, who has been throwing off a mound near his home in Las Vegas, threw his first bullpen session of the year in Florida on Feb. 10. He felt no discomfort and expects to be ready for the first workouts on Feb. 22. He made only nine starts last year because of shoulder issues.
Analysis: Any encouraging news regarding JJ is welcomed. But Fantasy owners do have to be aware of the risk of drafting him. Of course his potential makes it worth it, but JJ has made it past 30 starts just once in his career. Look to Johnson as more of a No. 2 Fantasy SP on Draft Day, but clearly he has the potential to be your ace if he can stay healthy.

Hunter Pence
Pence likely to hit cleanup
Hunter Pence, RF, PHI
2/12/2012
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports Phillies manager Charlie Manuel has to find a cleanup hitter with Ryan Howard expected to miss the beginning of the season recovering from an Achilles injury, and he said his choice going into spring training is Hunter Pence.
Analysis: Pence either hit right in front of or right behind Howard after his acquisition from Houston last season and thrived in the Phillies lineup. He will miss Howard's lineup protection, but might only have to play a month without Howard. In the meantime, Pence should get plenty of RBI chances batting cleanup, and he will still have plenty of lineup protection without Howard. Look to Pence in the early rounds of Fantasy drafts.

Jason Vargas
Vargas expected to pitch in A's series
Jason Vargas, SP, SEA
2/12/2012
News: Mariners manager Eric Wedge hinted Sunday that ace Felix Hernandez and Jason Vargas are the leading candidates to start the team's first two games against the A's in Japan. "That's one of the reasons we're here early, to make sure we get Felix ready and we're probably looking at Vargas right now in regard to the first couple games," Wedge said, as reported by MLB.com. "It is a little odd, but that's OK. That's part of it. We're professionals here and we have to get multiple starters prepared for the regular season. It's not just about those two guys, it's about everybody else as well. We've got a lot of starting pitchers here in camp and we'll see how it plays out. I'm looking forward to the competition."
Analysis: Believe it or not, but Vargas is arguably the M's second-best pitcher heading into spring training. He has been a steady part of the M's rotation the last two seasons. He is 19-25 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 63 starts since the beginning of the 2010 campaign. However, he is not a dominant pitcher and has weak strikeout totals, so Vargas is nothing more than a low-end Fantasy SP on Draft Day.

 
 
 
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