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David Gonos

Draft prep: Boston Red Sox Outlook

What can you say about the World Champions? ... They're good. And they're good in Fantasy, as well. From Josh Beckett, (top five starting pitcher), to Jonathan Papelbon who leads all closers, to David Ortiz (HR hitter with first-round expectations), to Jacoby Ellsbury (30-base stealer?) -- this team has something for every part of your Fantasy team.

In 2004 and '05, the Red Sox led the majors in runs scored. They dropped back to ninth in '06, but they rebounded to fourth last season. But instead of relying on the big bats of Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, the Red Sox spread the wealth, with Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis also getting in on the action (combining for over 200 RBI). J.D. Drew was a huge free-agent signee, but he didn't come close to the production they'd hoped to see. Coco Crisp played better, but his time in Boston could be short, with Ellsbury (Johnny Damon Pt II) waiting in the wings.

Big Papi's homers took a dip (19 fewer homers than in '06), but not his talent. He still registered career-highs in hits (182), batting average (.332) and on-base percentage (.445). Did his power slip? Not at all. As a matter of fact, he even posted his second-highest slugging percentage (.621).

Manny, however, saw his stats (and Fantasy value) make a sharp decline. In more at-bats than the previous season -- he hit 15 fewer homers, knocked in 14 fewer runs and his batting average was 25 points lower. With that said, he's still one of the cogs of this offense and he's going to see more pitches to hit, as pitchers test him and his decline. He's no spring pollo anymore!

Their pitching staff continues to get better, with the game's only 20-game winner from the past two seasons (Beckett) as their ace. And the noise about Daisuke Matsuzaka has died down a bit, but he's one of just eight pitchers that struck out at least 200 batters. His ERA could lower this season, now that he's acclimated and doesn't have as much hype surrounding him.

Papelbon had another amazing season -- and we rank him as the unquestioned top relief pitcher in baseball despite his youth.

Spring position battles SP No. 5 -- Jon Lester vs. Clay Buchholz

Try being a rookie pitcher on the reigning World Series champions, and then imagine already having a no-hitter on your resume from '07. Clay Buchholz is already a legend in Boston -- and he has just 22 innings of major league experience. He'll be battling with Jon Lester, another great story, for the fifth spot in the rotation, if the Red Sox keep Tim Wakefield in the fourth spot. Both Buchholz and Lester are solid late picks in mixed leagues, even though the former could start the year in the minors. Both should be rotation mainstays by midsummer.

Center field -- Ellsbury vs. Crisp Are you afraid that Ellsbury won't be given the green light enough? (You wouldn't be alone. After all, Boston was 30th in the majors in steals in '06, 28th in '05 and 21st in '04, with only one player stealing more than 20 bases in any of those three seasons (Crisp, 22, '06). Manager Terry Francona showed last season that he didn't mind running when he had players capable of doing it successfully. He let Julio Lugo run free 39 times (caught only six times) and Crisp ran 34 times (also caught just six times). Crisp's playing time dwindled late last season and a trade would do his Fantasy value wonders at this point. Meanwhile, grab Ellsbury as a No. 4 outfielder in mixed play.

Boston Red Sox Outlook
Projected lineup Pos. Projected Rotation
1 Jacoby Ellsbury CF 1 Josh Beckett RH
2 Dustin Pedroia 2B 2 Daisuke Matsuzaka RH
3 David Ortiz DH 3 Curt Schilling RH
4 Manny Ramirez LF 4 Tim Wakefield RH
5 Mike Lowell 3B 5 Jon Lester LH
6 Kevin Youkilis 1B Alt Clay Buchholz RH
7 J.D. Drew RF
8 Jason Varitek C Top bullpen arms
9 Julio Lugo SS CL Jonathan Papelbon RH
Top bench options SU Hideki Okajima LH
R Coco Crisp OF RP Manny Delcarmen RH
R Alex Cora INF RP Mike Timlin RH
Rookies/Prospects Age Pos. 2007 high Destination
1 Clay Buchholz 23 RH SP Majors Majors
No-hitter last season proves what he can do when he's on.
2 Jacoby Ellsbury 24 OF Majors Majors
Speed and grit continually makes team happy they didn't re-sign Johnny Damon.
3 Bubba Bell 25 OF Double-A Triple-A
Late-bloomer has good power and more walks (62) than Ks (56).
4 Jed Lowrie 23 SS Triple-A Triple-A
Solid, but we can't see him getting much of a chance in Boston.
5 Michael Bowden 21 RH SP Double-A Double-A
Drafted just after Buchholz, but few years younger with work to do.
Best of the rest: 1B Lars Anderson, 1B Chris Carter, SP Justin Masterson, SP Nick Hagadone, OF Brandon Moss, C George Kottaras, RP Craig Hansen, OF Ryan Kalish, OF Josh Reddick, 1B Aaron Bates, 2B Jeff Natale, P Daniel Bard, SP Devern Hansack, SS Yamaico Navarro, RP Chris Province, P Dustin Richardson, OF Che-Hsaun Lin, SS Oscar Tejeda, SP Kris Johnson, OF Jason Place, RP Bryson Cox, SP Caleb Clay, C Tyler Weeden, C Jon Egan, 2B Kris Negron, SP David Pauley.

You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Red Sox outlook in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Joe Mauer
Mauer 'feels good' after workout
Joe Mauer, C, MIN
2:50 PM
News: The News-Press reports Twins C Joe Mauer took two rounds of batting practice and went through a set of conditioning drills around the base paths Monday, and he appeared to have no problems sprinting. Mauer battled leg injuries in 2011. “I feel good,” Mauer said. “It feels good to get back out here again.” Mauer also put to rest the rumors that he gained 30 pounds in the offseason. “I heard that, too, and I couldn’t believe it," he said. “It’s just how rumors start. There were a lot of things out there last year that weren’t true. I’m about 220, 225. I need to add a little more weight before we start.”
Analysis: While most players feel good when they arrive to camp, it's especially encouraging to hear Mauer say that since last season he was coming off knee surgery and wasn't ready for the start of spring training. Mauer will head into 2012 motivated after an injury-plagued 2011. There's no guarantee he is past his knee problems, but the Twins are going to do their best to make sure Mauer avoids the DL. There is obviously risk involved with drafting Mauer, but his potential to be an elite Fantasy option at catcher make it worth drafting him. An offseason of staying health could make Mauer a steal in the fifth or sixth round of mixed-league drafts.

Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens still trade candidate
Jair Jurrjens, SP, ATL
11:57 AM
News: CBSSports.com senior writer Danny Knobler reports sources said the Braves could try and trade SP Jair Jurrjens if he proves healthy in spring training. The Braves tried to trade Jurrjens this winter, but they couldn't find a taker because potential trade partners weren't convinced Jurrjens was healthy or could stay healthy. Jurrjens missed the end of the 2011 season with a knee injury and has made just 43 starts the last two seasons.
Analysis: When Jurrjens is healthy, he is one of the best pitchers in the majors. His 1.87 ERA in the first half last season was second to only Jered Weaver among major-league starters. Jurrjens has won 13-plus games in three of the last four seasons. So why would the Braves want to trade him? Well, Jurrjens is a free agent after the 2013 season and it appears Atlanta is ready to clear some rotation space for the likes of Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens with Jurrjens this spring. There appears to be a chance he might not finish the spring with Atlanta, which could mean Jurrjens slides down draft boards in NL-only formats that lose players who are traded to the AL. In mixed leagues, Jurrjens is still a decent mid-round Fantasy pick.

A.J. Burnett
Angels, Indians interested in Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
11:40 AM
News: FOXSports.com reports sources indicate the Angels are interested in Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, whose name has been heavily mentioned in trade rumors with the Pirates. However, the Angels are on Burnett's no-trade list and he wants to stay east. Pittsburgh is still considered the heavy favorite to potentially land Burnett. CBSSports.com baseball insider Jon Heyman said the Indians have also inquired about Burnett. The trade talks involve DH Travis Hafner, but Cleveland is unsure if it would make that trade. The Yankees also don't mind the free agent DH options available.
Analysis: Right now the hold up in the Pirates trade is how much money Pittsburgh will be willing to pay of Burnett's remaining salary over the next two years ($33 million) and the prospects the Pirates would send to the Yankees. Perhaps these rumors regarding the Angels and Indians might speed up the process, but other sources have said the Yankees would keep Burnett if the deal isn't right for them. Wherever Burnett pitches in 2012, he is going to be a late-round Fantasy pick coming off a turbulent 2011 campaign.

Coco Crisp
Crisp moving over for Cespedes?
Coco Crisp, CF, OAK
10:13 AM
News: Sources have told FOXSports.com that the Athletics intend to start newly signed Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes in center field right away, which would move Coco Crisp over to left field and Seth Smith to DH. Cespedes is already 26 and has faced upper-level competition in Cuba, but some scouts think he could use some time in the minors to adjust to the U.S. game.
Analysis: None of these reports are coming directly from the Athletics, so you should consider them nothing more than speculation at this point. Still, speculation is better than nothing, and if Cespedes is in fact going to be on the opening day roster, then he might even be worth drafting in the middle rounds, given his upside. As for Crisp, moving to left field wouldn't have any real impact on his Fantasy value. The Athletics outfield is even more crowded with the Cespedes signing, but the team seems to consider Crisp a mainstay at the top of the lineup. Given his base-stealing ability and doubles pop, he's a worthy fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Ryan Braun
Braun will know fate by Feb. 24
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
10:03 AM
News: Monday came and went without a ruling on Brewers OF Ryan Braun's pending 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It was the 25th day since the three-man panel heard Braun's appeal. According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the panel was supposed to “make all reasonable efforts” to deliver a verdict within that period of time, but chairman Shyam Das was given an extension. A decision is expected before Braun reports to spring training on Feb. 24, but the exact date is unknown since the process is intended to be confidential.
Analysis: The panel's need for a lengthy deliberation is theoretically a good sign, but then again, since the process is usually confidential, we don't know how common such extensions are. Braun's case is said to be unique, but it might not make much of a difference to the panel. If you're drafting now, you should do so with the expectation that Braun will miss the first 50 games of the season, which could allow him to slip to the middle rounds in standard mixed leagues. If the appeal is upheld, though, he's suddenly back to being a first-rounder in Fantasy.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka
Nishioka wants to be 'aggressive'
Tsuyoshi Nishioka, SS, MIN
2:58 PM
News: The News-Press reports Twins SS Tsuyoshi Nishioka arrived a week early to spring training so he could adjust to the time difference from Japan. He worked out Monday and said through a translator that adjusting to his first experience in the majors took its toll on him in 2011. “I want to be more aggressive,” Nishioka said. “Not knowing right from left, it was strange playing the sport of baseball. It’s difficult when you think about it. Driving a car, you drive on opposite sides of the road. Outside the ballpark, there were lifestyle adjustments, too. That made it pretty difficult.”
Analysis: It's good that Nishioka has come to camp with the right attitude. However, he is still looking at being a reserve after the team signed Jamey Carroll to start at shortstop. That's not to say Nishioka can't emerge as a starter at some point this season, but the Twins are going to make him earn it. Nishioka is at best an AL-only Fantasy reserve on Draft Day.

Mike Moustakas
Moustakas in great shape
Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC
12:48 PM
News: Royals manager Ned Yost had his contract option for the 2013 season picked up on Tuesday, but the Kansas City skipper seemed more interested in talking about his 2012 team. Yost was impressed with how many players have shown up for spring training early and is really blown away by the fitness level of a few of his players. "Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas -- I'm extremely proud of both of those guys," Yost told reporters. "They could be in the best shape they've been in their careers. Billy looks great, and I didn't even hardly recognize Moose he looks so good."
Analysis: While the fitness level doesn't necessarily mean a player will have success, it really can't hurt either. To hear Yost rave about Moustakas should get the attention of Fantasy owners. Moustakas, who is one of the Royals' top prospects, struggled when he first arrived in the majors last season. However, he seemed to have figured it out by season's end. Moustakas hit .352 with four homers and 12 RBI in his final 22 games last season. He is definitely one of the more intriguing Fantasy sleepers heading into 2012 and this latest report just adds to his appeal on Draft Day.

Jake Westbrook
Westbrook sheds 25 pounds
Jake Westbrook, SP, STL
2:11 PM
News: The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports Cardinals SP Jake Westbrook has shown up for spring training 25 pounds lighter than he was last season.
Analysis: This is the time of year where everyone seems to come to camp in better shape than they left last season. Hopefully for Westbrook it makes a difference in his game. He did go 12-9 in 2011, but he posted a 4.66 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 33 starts. Westbrook can chew up innings, but he won't post impressive ERA, WHIP or strikeout total. Leave him for NL-only Fantasy formats.

Jhoulys Chacin
Chacin fires back at GM
Jhoulys Chacin, SP, COL
12:07 PM
News: The Denver Post reports Rockies SP Jhoulys Chacin responded to comments made by GM Dan O'Dowd, who expressed concern recently about Chacin's offseason conditioning. "I came to Arizona this past Monday. I have not stopped training during the winter, both in my country and here," Chacin told Venezuelan newspaper Meridiano. "I have always done the best job I could all throughout these past few months. I don't know where these comments came from. I believe they're the result of what other people have told him, instead of his own personal evaluation. I am looking forward to meeting O'Dowd personally, and I am confident that he will have a different conclusion after a firsthand evaluation." O'Dowd made his comments after seeing Chacin at the team's Fanfest in January. "He looked OK. It wasn't as bad as I anticipated," O'Dowd said. "It's still not what it should be."
Analysis: O'Dowd believes Chacin needs to lose weight because the excess pounds affect the balance in his delivery and cause his fastball command to suffer. Chacin spent much of the winter working out in his native Venezuela after working out in Tucson previously. On Feb. 9, Chacin reportedly weighed 226 pounds but anticipates being close to the 218 pounds he was last spring when he reports to spring training on Feb. 19. Chacin went 8-7 with a 3.16 ERA in 18 pre-All Star break starts last year and went 3-7 with a 4.31 ERA in 13 starts after the break. Chacin struggled with walks in the second half and was much more hittable down the stretch than he was early in the season. This situation is clearly not the way Fantasy owners want to see Chacin kick off the 2012 season, but perhaps this will provide him with the motivation he needs to reach elite status. Look to Chacin as a mid-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Kyle Seager
Seager gets work at first base
Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA
1:25 PM
News: The Seattle Times reports Mariners 3B Kyle Seager took grounders at first base Tuesday. Manager Eric Wedge said it was because of pitcher fielding drills Seager was at first base.
Analysis: It's interesting to see Seager working at another position in camp with Wedge calling him the front-runner for the third-base job. However, it appears clear that Seager was just needed as an extra body during fielding drills. Justin Smoak is still the team's first baseman and Mike Carp is his expected backup. Carlos Guillen can also play first base, so we can't look too much into Seager taking grounders at first. His main focus should be winning the 3B job over the likes of Alex Liddi and Chone Figgins. Consider Seager nothing more than a late-round, low-end Fantasy corner infielder on Draft Day. He does have some sleeper potential, but don't reach for him in drafts.

 
 
 
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