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David Gonos

Draft prep: Florida Marlins outlook

The more things change, the more they stay the same. This past offseason, the young, rebuilding Marlins -- got younger and are rebuilding.

Florida essentially sent the two centerpieces of their foundation, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, to Detroit for outfielder Cameron Maybin and starter Andrew Miller. Two players that helped them as rookies win their second World Series back in 2003 will now be performing in Motown. That's not to say that Maybin and Miller are chicken feed, but from a Fantasy perspective -- this season -- they will be hard-pressed to produce as much as Cabrera alone.

Hanley Ramirez now becomes the best Fantasy player on this team to target -- although he might have been the best even with Cabrera there because of his speed and position. He proved last season that, when healthy, he can reach 30 homers, 80 RBI, a .330 batting average, 125 runs scored and 50 steals. Shoulder problems forced him to have surgery in October on his non-throwing arm. If you remember seeing him in pain after a few of his swings when the shoulder came out last season, then you know how important this surgery was. He should be fine this season, and he remains a solid first-round pick in all formats, although without Cabrera in the lineup, he'll be hard-pressed to come anywhere near his totals from last year.

Dan Uggla is the other big hitter in that middle infield, but his low batting average and inability to get on-base regularly keeps him from being considered in the first few rounds of most Fantasy drafts. While Head-to-Head owners are excited about his pop (he led all 2B with 31 homers), they have to take into account that his 167 strikeouts also led the position. If your Head-to-Head league doesn't deduct for whiffs, by all means, move him up your rankings.

Maybin has speed to spare -- 30 steals last season -- but he's a free swinger that will need to be more patient at the plate if he hopes to lead off someday for this Marlins team. He might not start the season in the majors, but you can bet that the team will want to get him to Dolphin Stadium sooner than later to get him experience. If they wait too long -- they'll end up trading him in another youth movement!

Jeremy Hermida and Josh Willingham are close to the same Fantasy outfielders, although Hermida can certainly come closer to a .300 batting average. Both will come close to 25 homers, 80 RBI and 70 runs scored. Hermida is a decent No. 3 Fantasy outfielder this spring, but with the addition of veteran OF Luis Gonzalez, Willingham's stats might get cut into. Hermida might move to center to make room for Gonzalez, which would allow Maybin some seasoning in the minors.

The Marlins' pitching staff is not what we had hoped it would become just a couple seasons ago, when Willis had a sub-4.00 ERA as their ace, Josh Johnson had 12 wins in his rookie season, when Anibal Sanchez threw a no-hitter in his rookie year, when Ricky Nolasco was a double-digit winner, and when Scott Olsen was second among major league rookies with 166 strikeouts. The Marlins had the highest ERA in the National League last season (4.94).

Sergio Mitre looks to be the No. 1 starter entering this season. That's right. Sergio Mitre -- the guy that has never won more than five games in any one season. The guy that has twice as many career losses as he does career wins. Needless to say, we don't recommend him in mixed play, and since he doesn't strike out many batters and he isn't likely going to register double-digit wins this year, his NL-only status is relatively low as well. And their recent addition of Mark Hendrickson is basically a taller, left-handed version of Mitre.

Olsen is back -- and he's likely your best bet at instant Fantasy help in the later rounds of mixed leagues as a sleeper. His off-the-field problems aside, he is entering his third year and should mature into a player that pitches more consistently.

The Marlins will give Miller every chance to pitch in the rotation right out of spring, and they'll be able to be patient with his wild attributes because they aren't expected to win every game. Rotisserie owners should enjoy his abilities a little more than their Head-to-Head counterparts, since losses won't hurt them.

As far as relievers are concerned, the Marlins were one of the worst bullpens in the majors last season, and they certainly went through their fair share of closer candidates before Kevin Gregg finally stepped up. He'll keep that job entering this spring, but it'll be interesting to see if he can hold onto it. On a team that isn't expected to win many games, it's tough to predict a large amount of save opportunities. Looking closer, however, they had 64 save chances last season, and they're not expected to blow anyone out. So a number close to that again this year is logical -- which makes Gregg a decent later-round pick in Rotisserie formats as a No. 3 closer.

Spring position battles

Center field -- Cameron Maybin vs. Cody Ross
Maybin is the man because of his potential, but Ross is the underdog that has proven he can produce when given a chance. But Ross is a smallish player that would serve better as a utility outfielder. Maybin is still a mixed league target, whereas Ross should only be considered in NL-only formats. This is all if Gonzalez shares at-bats with Willingham and Hermida remains in right field.

No. 5 starting pitcher -- Anibal Sanchez vs. Rick VandenHurk vs. Daniel Barone
You have to figure the Marlins want Sanchez to win this battle because of his potential. But shoulder problems could make them wait until a month or so into the season. VandenHurk struck out twice as many batters as he walked a season ago. He could be the guy that moves up a spot to replace Hendrickson once he falters and Sanchez is healthy. Barone is another solid pitching prospect, although he has proven to be better in the bullpen. Once injuries take their toll, we could see top prospect Chris Volstad on the mound in South Florida.

Third base -- Dallas McPherson vs. Jose Castillo

Florida brings over the oft-injured McPherson from Anaheim, which is a great move on their part because he's low-risk/high-reward. Consider him the same in NL-only play. Jorge Cantu is also in this mix.

Florida Marlins Outlook
Projected lineup Pos. Projected Rotation
1 Hanley Ramirez SS 1 Sergio Mitre RH
2 Dan Uggla 2B 2 Scott Olsen LH
3 Jeremy Hermida RF 3 Mark Hendrickson LH
4 Josh Willingham LF 4 Andrew Miller LH
5 Mike Jacobs 1B 5 Anibal Sanchez RH
6 Dallas McPherson 3B Alt Rick VandenHurk RH
7 Cameron Maybin CF Top bullpen arms
8 Matt Treanor C CL Kevin Gregg RH
Top bench options SU Matt Lindstrom RH
R Luis Gonzalez OF RP Justin Miller RH
R Alfredo Amezaga INF RP Taylor Tankersley LH

Rookies/Prospects Age Pos. 2007 high Destination
1 Cameron Maybin 20 CF Majors Majors
Great speed, has chance to start in center and lead off.
2 Chris Volstad 21 RH SP Double-A Triple-A
Elite talent's numbers improved across the board in Double-A.
3 Gaby Hernandez 21 RH SP Double-A Double-A
More consistent than Volstad, but ceiling not as high, perhaps.
4 Chris Coghlan 22 2B Class A Double-A
Dan Uggla might be hearing some footsteps by the end of 2008.
5 Gaby Sanchez 24 1B Class A Double-A
Big FSL parks limited HR totals, but 2B-BB-K numbers promising.
Best of the rest: SP Brent Sinkbeil, OF Brett Carroll, SP Aaron Thompson, OF John Raynor, 3B Lee Mitchell, 1B Logan Morrison, OF Spike McDougall, C Mike Rabelo, RHP Burke Badenhop, RHP Eulogio De La Cruz, RHP Dallas Trahern, SP Hector Correa, SP Daniel Barone, OF Jai Miller, SP Ryan Tucker, P Jesus Delgado, OF Greg Burns, SP Chris Seddon, RP Harvey Garcia, RP Carlos Martinez, C Brett Hayes, 3B Matt Dominguez, SP Graham Taylor, SP Kyle Winters, OF Kris Harvey, SS Robert Andino, RP Ross Wolf, RP Mauro Zarate, SP Sean West, RP Todd Doolittle, OF Tom Hickman, RP Jacob Marceaux.

You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Marlins outlook in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens still trade candidate
Jair Jurrjens, SP, ATL
11:57 AM
News: CBSSports.com senior writer Danny Knobler reports sources said the Braves could try and trade SP Jair Jurrjens if he proves healthy in spring training. The Braves tried to trade Jurrjens this winter, but they couldn't find a taker because potential trade partners weren't convinced Jurrjens was healthy or could stay healthy. Jurrjens missed the end of the 2011 season with a knee injury and has made just 43 starts the last two seasons.
Analysis: When Jurrjens is healthy, then he is one of the best pitchers in the majors. His 1.87 ERA in the first half last season was second to only Jered Weaver among major-league starters. Jurrjens has won 13-plus games in three of the last four seasons. So why would the Braves want to trade him? Well, Jurrjens is a free agent after the 2013 season and it appears Atlanta is ready to clear some rotation space for the likes of Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens with Jurrjens this spring. There appears to be a chance he might not finish the spring with Atlanta, which could mean Jurrjens slides down draft boards in NL-only formats that lose players who are traded to the AL. In mixed leagues, Jurrjens is still a decent mid-round Fantasy pick.

A.J. Burnett
Angels interested in Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
11:40 AM
News: FOXSports.com reports sources indicate the Angels are interested in Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, whose name has been heavily mentioned in trade rumors with the Pirates. However, the Angels are on Burnett's no-trade list and he wants to stay east. Pittsburgh is still considered the heavy favorite to potentially land Burnett.
Analysis: Right now the hold up in the Pirates trade is how much money Pittsburgh will be willing to pay of Burnett's remaining salary over the next two years ($33 million) and the prospects the Pirates would send to the Yankees. Perhaps this rumor regarding the Angels might speed up the process, but other sources have said the Yankees would keep Burnett if the deal isn't right for them. The Angels could afford to trade Bobby Abreu to the Yankees, who are looking for DH. But this point is moot until Burnett agrees to waive his no-trade clause. Wherever Burnett pitches in 2012, he is going to be a late-round Fantasy pick coming off a turbulent 2011 campaign.

Coco Crisp
Crisp moving over for Cespedes?
Coco Crisp, CF, OAK
10:13 AM
News: Sources have told FOXSports.com that the Athletics intend to start newly signed Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes in center field right away, which would move Coco Crisp over to left field and Seth Smith to DH. Cespedes is already 26 and has faced upper-level competition in Cuba, but some scouts think he could use some time in the minors to adjust to the U.S. game.
Analysis: None of these reports are coming directly from the Athletics, so you should consider them nothing more than speculation at this point. Still, speculation is better than nothing, and if Cespedes is in fact going to be on the opening day roster, then he might even be worth drafting in the middle rounds, given his upside. As for Crisp, moving to left field wouldn't have any real impact on his Fantasy value. The Athletics outfield is even more crowded with the Cespedes signing, but the team seems to consider Crisp a mainstay at the top of the lineup. Given his base-stealing ability and doubles pop, he's a worthy fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Ryan Braun
Braun will know fate by Feb. 24
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
10:03 AM
News: Monday came and went without a ruling on Brewers OF Ryan Braun's pending 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It was the 25th day since the three-man panel heard Braun's appeal. According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the panel was supposed to “make all reasonable efforts” to deliver a verdict within that period of time, but chairman Shyam Das was given an extension. A decision is expected before Braun reports to spring training on Feb. 24, but the exact date is unknown since the process is intended to be confidential.
Analysis: The panel's need for a lengthy deliberation is theoretically a good sign, but then again, since the process is usually confidential, we don't know how common such extensions are. Braun's case is said to be unique, but it might not make much of a difference to the panel. If you're drafting now, you should do so with the expectation that Braun will miss the first 50 games of the season, which could allow him to slip to the middle rounds in standard mixed leagues. If the appeal is upheld, though, he's suddenly back to being a first-rounder in Fantasy.

Jhoulys Chacin
Chacin fires back at GM
Jhoulys Chacin, SP, COL
12:07 PM
News: The Denver Post reports Rockies SP Jhoulys Chacin responded to comments made by GM Dan O'Dowd, who expressed concern recently about Chacin's offseason conditioning. "I came to Arizona this past Monday. I have not stopped training during the winter, both in my country and here," Chacin told Venezuelan newspaper Meridiano. "I have always done the best job I could all throughout these past few months. I don't know where these comments came from. I believe they're the result of what other people have told him, instead of his own personal evaluation. I am looking forward to meeting O'Dowd personally, and I am confident that he will have a different conclusion after a firsthand evaluation." O'Dowd made his comments after seeing Chacin at the team's Fanfest in January. "He looked OK. It wasn't as bad as I anticipated," O'Dowd said. "It's still not what it should be."
Analysis: O'Dowd believes Chacin needs to lose weight because the excess pounds affect the balance in his delivery and cause his fastball command to suffer. Chacin spent much of the winter working out in his native Venezuela after working out in Tucson previously. On Feb. 9, Chacin reportedly weighed 226 pounds but anticipates being close to the 218 pounds he was last spring when he reports to spring training on Feb. 19. Chacin went 8-7 with a 3.16 ERA in 18 pre-All Star break starts last year and went 3-7 with a 4.31 ERA in 13 starts after the break. Chacin struggled with walks in the second half and was much more hittable down the stretch than he was early in the season. This situation is clearly not the way Fantasy owners want to see Chacin kick off the 2012 season, but perhaps this will provide him with the motivation he needs to reach elite status. Look to Chacin as a mid-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Kosuke Fukudome
Fukudome lands on South Side
Kosuke Fukudome, RF, CLE
11:46 AM
News: Kosuke Fukudome is headed back to the Windy City, but this time he is going to call the South Side home. Fukudome agreed to a one-year, $1 million contract with the White Sox on Tuesday. The deal also included a club option for the 2013 season.
Analysis: Fukudome played for the Cubs from 2008 to the trade deadline last season when he was shipped to Cleveland. He had his most disappointing campaign in the majors in 2011, which is why he probably stayed on the free-agent market longer than expected. The White Sox are expected to open 2012 with an outfield alignment of Alex Rios in center, Dayan Viciedo in right field and Alejandro De Aza in left field. Brent Lillibridge is considered a backup at all three outfield positions and now Fukudome joins the mix as another outfield body. However, since he likely won't begin the season as a starter, then Fukudome can be left undrafted in most Fantasy formats. Consider him at best an AL-only Fantasy reserve.

Jose Veras
Veras loses arbitration case
Jose Veras, RP, MIL
12:01 PM
News: CBSSports.com baseball insider Jon Heyman reports Brewers RP Jose Veras lost his arbitration case. He will make $2 million in 2012 instead of the $2.375 million he sought in arbitration.
Analysis: Veras arrived in Milwaukee in December as part of the Casey McGehee trade with the Pirates. Veras went 2-4 with a 3.80 ERA in 71 innings for Pittsburgh last season. He won't be a closer with the Brewers and will work in middle relief. Veras is merely a low-end Fantasy RP.

Dillon Gee
Gee prepping for the long haul
Dillon Gee, SP, NYM
11:33 AM
News: Newsday reports Mets SP Dillon Gee is focusing on finishing out the 2012 season after he struggled in the second half in 2011. Gee admitted fatigue played a part in his ERA rising to 5.25 after the All-Star break. He had a 3.76 ERA in the first half. "As the months went on, my stuff just got kind of bland," Gee said. "I feel that comes from fatigue. As soon as your legs get tired, you start overcompensating one way or the other, maybe relaxing a little bit. That throws off your release point, and in the end, the movement on your pitches. Earlier in the year, when I was fresh, you could see a big difference in the video that I watched."
Analysis: Gee said he is looking "for nothing but improvement" in 2012. He clearly has figured out what his biggest hurdle is to make sure he has a successful campaign. "I've had bouts of inconsistency where I jumped a level because it's a different thing you never experienced," Gee said. "My first full year in the big leagues was a long season for me. I wasn't used to that. It's only a month longer than minor leagues, but mentally, it's challenging. Every start, you have to focus so much harder, and that drains you. So I think learning how to deal with that and knowing what to expect this next year." Gee finished 2011 with 13 wins, but it could be a little tougher for victories this season as the Mets aren't the same star-filled team they used to be. Gee is merely a late-round Fantasy flier.

Josh Beckett
Beckett throws with skipper watching
Josh Beckett, SP, BOS
11:26 AM
News: The Boston Globe reports Red Sox SP Josh Beckett threw 20 pitches in a bullpen session Tuesday as new manager Bobby Valentine watched.
Analysis: After a disastrous 2010, Beckett stayed healthy for the most part in 2011 and was able to get back on track. He made 30 starts and posted a 2.89 ERA. He also had a 13-7 record and 1.03 WHIP. Beckett has had less than 10 wins in just one of his last seven seasons. The biggest risk with drafting Beckett is durability. But if he is healthy, then he can post big numbers. Look to Beckett in the early rounds on Draft Day.

Kelvin De La Cruz
Indians DFA pitcher Cruz
Kelvin De La Cruz, SP, CLE
11:20 AM
News: The Indians designated for assignment pitcher Kelvin De La Cruz on Tuesday.
Analysis: Cruz has yet to make his MLB debut, but he is 32-28 with a 4.21 ERA in six minor-league seasons. He is merely organizational depth and can be ignored in Fantasy.

 
 
 
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