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Eric Mack

Draft prep: Third-year starting pitchers

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Note: This is Part II of our series on Draft Day sleepers and breakouts. Part I was 27-year-olds.

Pitchers can reach their physical peak at 27, too, but pitching is more art than skill and it isn't only about physical prowess. It also takes a conditioning process that requires you to build up to the 200-inning, 34-start grind.

So with that in mind, we have another way to outline potential breakouts at the riskiest position in Fantasy: Starting pitchers in their third year -- or more loosely interpreted, those with between 40 and 70 career starts -- are conditioned and ready to pop (in the good way, not the blown ligament way).

This year's crop is the best we have seen in years, mostly a result of a 2006 rookie class that was legendary.

To win your league, you want players who outproduce their draft position or auction price. Here is our top 10 "Third-year SPs" to target (with their age on opening day):

1. Jered Weaver | 25 | Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Among the 30 or so arms in this category, Weaver has the lowest career ERA at 3.33. He also has the second-best WHIP at 1.232, tied for third-most victories (24) and has the fewest losses (nine). His career .250 batting-average-against is nothing to sneeze at either.

Yeah, Weaver is a winner. And he has a great team in the Angels to get him run support and victories this year.

Unlike the next two elite arms on this list, he will be ranked out of the top 15 starting pitchers to target on Draft Day and won't be considered the ace of his own team. That would be John Lackey.

We like Weaver's potential to perform on the level of anyone in 2008.

2. Justin Verlander | 25 | Detroit Tigers

OK, we know what you're saying: Way to go out on a limb with this one. Well, you're right. Verlander is a clear Fantasy ace that might be among the top five at the position already. His 35 career victories are already 10 more than the next closest third-year starter, while his ERA (3.74) is fourth best.

But, until Johan Santana is traded to the Mets, Red Sox, Yankees, Angels or Dodgers, Verlander is the only pitcher we project to win 20 games in 2008 for a beefed-up Tigers team that figures to have him on cruise control for your Fantasy team.

The jump from 18 victories to 20 is a significant one -- one that can net him the Cy Young in his third year.

3. Cole Hamels | 24 | Philadelphia Phillies

You must be thoroughly annoyed now. We have yet to tell you something you don't already know. Hamels is a star for a great team, too.

His career 1.175 WHIP tops all third-year starters and his .237 BAA is good for fourth.

But, what you don't necessarily realize is Hamels, like Weaver above, has yet to break the 200-inning mark in the majors. Getting to that point should mean some big-time numbers across the board we haven't seen from him yet.

4. John Maine | 26 | New York Mets

A much-less obvious Fantasy ace, perhaps. Maine's career ERA (4.19) won't excite you, neither will his 1.287 WHIP.

And his post-break numbers in 2007 of 5-6, 5.93 will downright scare you. He wore down in August (2-3, 6.32) and September (1-2, 5.93), like most of his choking Mets 'mates.

But what he did on the penultimate day of the season is what he is capable of: 7 2/3 innings, one hit, 14 strikeouts. He flirted with a no-hitter, four outs away for a team that never has had one, as the Mets flirted with historic disaster.

Here is more good news: His .233 BAA is better than all those aces above him here and good for second-best among all the third-year starters (see our No. 5).

And, drum roll, he turns 27 in May. Sleeper synergy that is just too perfect.

The offensively capable Mets should make him a big-time winner, and he should be able to stretch out better through the second half this time around. Last year was really his first full year in the majors after a couple of half seasons before 2007.

5. Matt Cain | 23 | San Francisco Giants

The youngest third-year starting pitcher this year works for a bad Giants ballclub that won't score many runs. That is the real reason he has lost more games than anyone in this category (29) and was a 16-game loser last season.

Yes, we manage to hype a 16-game loser!

Heck, we rank this "loser" just outside the top 30 starters in Fantasy -- for good reason. His .221 BAA is stuff of legends and his 3.73 ERA is better than all but Weaver and Hamels among this group.

He has walked more batters than anyone in this category (185), but he is second among them in strikeouts (372) and we should remind you he is the youngest of this group, with plenty of room to grow.

6. Rich Hill | 27 | Chicago Cubs

If we have ingrained you properly, you paused and smiled when you saw the age next to his name. Hill is somewhat of a late-blooming lefty, which southpaws tend to be.

He has the third-best career BAA (.235) among third-year starters, albeit with a high ERA (4.39) and just 17 victories in 52 starts. Entering his prime, and with a couple of years under his belt, he should put it all together for a Cubs team that figures to help him win a lot of games. He might even fan more than 200 batters.

James Shields was impressive in 2007. Is there even more in his future this season? (US Presswire)  
James Shields was impressive in 2007. Is there even more in his future this season? (US Presswire)  
7. James Shields | 26 | Tampa Bay Rays

Shields might have already celebrated his breakthrough last year, quietly becoming a reliable Fantasy option despite pitching for one of the worst teams in baseball. The fact he is entering his third year suggests there is even more to come.

Shields' career 1.228 WHIP is second to only Hamels in this category, mostly because he has walked just 74 batters in 339 2/3 innings. He started to strike them out, too, last year.

Sure, the Rays look like a poor team now, but they are oozing with elite talent and Shields will be among the reasons they surprise many this season.

8. Pirates pitching staff

LH Tom Gorzelanny, 25, RH Ian Snell, 26, LH Zach Duke, 24, and LH Paul Maholm, 25, won't evoke images of the Braves terrific early '90s trio of Tom Glavine, John Smoltz and Steve Avery, but they are arguably the best set of young arms to arrive in unison since then.

They are all in this third-year category and each has something going for him, albeit for a bad team. Gorzelanny has the best assortment of stuff, Snell throws the hardest, Duke has the best polish, while we will merely say Maholm is the craftiest. Snell, with his consistent mid-90s heat, has struck out more batters than all of the names in this category. He has also pitched the most innings.

The fact they pitch for the Pirates is good news in our book, because it will actually allow them to slip some on Draft Day.

9. Boof Bonser and Scott Baker | 26 | Minnesota Twins

Another cheap-way-out, combo-pick here. Baker, the control-and-command guy, will turn 27 this September, while Bonser, more of the knockout guy, turns that age just after the season. The retooling Twins are expected to count on both of these third-year arms.

Baker is a strike-thrower, having walked a mere 59 batters in 280 2/3 innings. Bonser is more of a bat-misser we like to see in Fantasy.

Although the Twins don't figure to truly contend, Justin Morneau (27, by the way) and Joe Mauer figure to help make this pair of righties sleepers this season.

10. Scott Olsen | 24 | Florida Marlins

We are not sold on this left-hander's makeup -- he is a hothead whose temper tends to get him in trouble with teammates, management and even police. But perhaps his anger and cockiness could be put to better use this season.

It might have to, because he enters spring as the Marlins' possible No. 1. That is like being called the smartest dummy, though, because they are rebuilding again and figure to be a last-place team.

Olsen is the second-youngest third-year starter, but he has the fourth-most strikeouts and innings in the category. His age will be our excuse for his past indiscretions and his talent is our reason for liking him as a sleeper in deeper leagues.

Others with around 40-70 career starts who we expect to be their best yet: RH Zack Greinke, KC; RH Sergio Mitre, FLA; RH Edwin Jackson, TB; LH Chuck James, ATL; RH Kyle Davies, KC; LH Sean Marshall, CHC; LH Gustavo Chacin, TOR and RH Brandon Backe, HOU.

Third-year starting pitcher stats
PlayerD.O.B.GGSINNWLERASOBBWHIPBAA
Backe, Brandon4/5/197810947345 2/322154.632231551.464.266
Baker, Scott9/19/19815048280 2/317204.71196591.365.291
Bonser, Boof10/14/19814948273 1/315184.77220891.434.279
Brazelton, Dewon6/16/198063432718256.381451511.683.286
Cain, Matt10/1/1984717043722293.733721851.233.221
Chacin, Gustavo12/4/19805858331 2/325154.181851181.381.268
Davies, Kyle9/9/1983635628717286.242121521.725.294
De La Rosa, Jorge4/5/1981974127415235.851961591.741.291
Duke, Zach4/19/19836867407 1/321254.202161161.500.309
Gaudin, Chad3/24/19831354435919204.462551801.568.275
Gorzelanny, Tom7/12/19824644269 1/316164.041781021.396.266
Halsey, Brad2/14/19818840286 1/314194.84160991.533.297
Hamels, Cole12/27/19835151315 2/324133.68322911.175.237
Hill, Rich3/11/1980595231817174.392941191.248.235
Jackson, Edwin9/9/19837446272 2/311195.642031521.716.290
James, Chuck11/9/1981574828622144.002121081.318.250
Loe, Kameron9/10/1981934731318234.921601151.524.288
Maholm, Paul6/25/1982656539521264.602481471.478.287
Maine, John5/8/19815956324 2/323194.192761351.287.233
Marshall, Sean8/30/1982454322913174.83144941.454.269
Mitre, Sergio2/16/19817852310 2/310235.361881081.545.298
Olsen, Scott1/12/19846968377 2/323264.863201701.528.277
Shields, James12/20/19815252339 2/318164.21288741.228.262
Snell, Ian10/30/1981827044824264.403891751.426.271
Tejeda, Robinson3/24/19825946254 2/314174.911811431.582.267
Verlander, Justin2/20/1983646439935173.743141321.291.251
Weaver, Jered10/4/198247472842493.33220781.232.250

You can e-mail Emack your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Third-year starting pitchers outlook in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens still trade candidate
Jair Jurrjens, SP, ATL
11:57 AM
News: CBSSports.com senior writer Danny Knobler reports sources said the Braves could try and trade SP Jair Jurrjens if he proves healthy in spring training. The Braves tried to trade Jurrjens this winter, but they couldn't find a taker because potential trade partners weren't convinced Jurrjens was healthy or could stay healthy. Jurrjens missed the end of the 2011 season with a knee injury and has made just 43 starts the last two seasons.
Analysis: When Jurrjens is healthy, then he is one of the best pitchers in the majors. His 1.87 ERA in the first half last season was second to only Jered Weaver among major-league starters. Jurrjens has won 13-plus games in three of the last four seasons. So why would the Braves want to trade him? Well, Jurrjens is a free agent after the 2013 season and it appears Atlanta is ready to clear some rotation space for the likes of Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens with Jurrjens this spring. There appears to be a chance he might not finish the spring with Atlanta, which could mean Jurrjens slides down draft boards in NL-only formats that lose players who are traded to the AL. In mixed leagues, Jurrjens is still a decent mid-round Fantasy pick.
A.J. Burnett
Angels interested in Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
11:40 AM
News: FOXSports.com reports sources indicate the Angels are interested in Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, whose name has been heavily mentioned in trade rumors with the Pirates. However, the Angels are on Burnett's no-trade list and he wants to stay east. Pittsburgh is still considered the heavy favorite to potentially land Burnett.
Analysis: Right now the hold up in the Pirates trade is how much money Pittsburgh will be willing to pay of Burnett's remaining salary over the next two years ($33 million) and the prospects the Pirates would send to the Yankees. Perhaps this rumor regarding the Angels might speed up the process, but other sources have said the Yankees would keep Burnett if the deal isn't right for them. The Angels could afford to trade Bobby Abreu to the Yankees, who are looking for DH. But this point is moot until Burnett agrees to waive his no-trade clause. Wherever Burnett pitches in 2012, he is going to be a late-round Fantasy pick coming off a turbulent 2011 campaign.
Coco Crisp
Crisp moving over for Cespedes?
Coco Crisp, CF, OAK
10:13 AM
News: Sources have told FOXSports.com that the Athletics intend to start newly signed Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes in center field right away, which would move Coco Crisp over to left field and Seth Smith to DH. Cespedes is already 26 and has faced upper-level competition in Cuba, but some scouts think he could use some time in the minors to adjust to the U.S. game.
Analysis: None of these reports are coming directly from the Athletics, so you should consider them nothing more than speculation at this point. Still, speculation is better than nothing, and if Cespedes is in fact going to be on the opening day roster, then he might even be worth drafting in the middle rounds, given his upside. As for Crisp, moving to left field wouldn't have any real impact on his Fantasy value. The Athletics outfield is even more crowded with the Cespedes signing, but the team seems to consider Crisp a mainstay at the top of the lineup. Given his base-stealing ability and doubles pop, he's a worthy fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.
Ryan Braun
Braun will know fate by Feb. 24
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
10:03 AM
News: Monday came and went without a ruling on Brewers OF Ryan Braun's pending 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It was the 25th day since the three-man panel heard Braun's appeal. According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the panel was supposed to “make all reasonable efforts” to deliver a verdict within that period of time, but chairman Shyam Das was given an extension. A decision is expected before Braun reports to spring training on Feb. 24, but the exact date is unknown since the process is intended to be confidential.
Analysis: The panel's need for a lengthy deliberation is theoretically a good sign, but then again, since the process is usually confidential, we don't know how common such extensions are. Braun's case is said to be unique, but it might not make much of a difference to the panel. If you're drafting now, you should do so with the expectation that Braun will miss the first 50 games of the season, which could allow him to slip to the middle rounds in standard mixed leagues. If the appeal is upheld, though, he's suddenly back to being a first-rounder in Fantasy.
Jhoulys Chacin
Chacin fires back at GM
Jhoulys Chacin, SP, COL
12:07 PM
News: The Denver Post reports Rockies SP Jhoulys Chacin responded to comments made by GM Dan O'Dowd, who expressed concern recently about Chacin's offseason conditioning. "I came to Arizona this past Monday. I have not stopped training during the winter, both in my country and here," Chacin told Venezuelan newspaper Meridiano. "I have always done the best job I could all throughout these past few months. I don't know where these comments came from. I believe they're the result of what other people have told him, instead of his own personal evaluation. I am looking forward to meeting O'Dowd personally, and I am confident that he will have a different conclusion after a firsthand evaluation." O'Dowd made his comments after seeing Chacin at the team's Fanfest in January. "He looked OK. It wasn't as bad as I anticipated," O'Dowd said. "It's still not what it should be."
Analysis: O'Dowd believes Chacin needs to lose weight because the excess pounds affect the balance in his delivery and cause his fastball command to suffer. Chacin spent much of the winter working out in his native Venezuela after working out in Tucson previously. On Feb. 9, Chacin reportedly weighed 226 pounds but anticipates being close to the 218 pounds he was last spring when he reports to spring training on Feb. 19. Chacin went 8-7 with a 3.16 ERA in 18 pre-All Star break starts last year and went 3-7 with a 4.31 ERA in 13 starts after the break. Chacin struggled with walks in the second half and was much more hittable down the stretch than he was early in the season. This situation is clearly not the way Fantasy owners want to see Chacin kick off the 2012 season, but perhaps this will provide him with the motivation he needs to reach elite status. Look to Chacin as a mid-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.
Kosuke Fukudome
Fukudome lands on South Side
Kosuke Fukudome, RF, CLE
11:46 AM
News: Kosuke Fukudome is headed back to the Windy City, but this time he is going to call the South Side home. Fukudome agreed to a one-year, $1 million contract with the White Sox on Tuesday. The deal also included a club option for the 2013 season.
Analysis: Fukudome played for the Cubs from 2008 to the trade deadline last season when he was shipped to Cleveland. He had his most disappointing campaign in the majors in 2011, which is why he probably stayed on the free-agent market longer than expected. The White Sox are expected to open 2012 with an outfield alignment of Alex Rios in center, Dayan Viciedo in right field and Alejandro De Aza in left field. Brent Lillibridge is considered a backup at all three outfield positions and now Fukudome joins the mix as another outfield body. However, since he likely won't begin the season as a starter, then Fukudome can be left undrafted in most Fantasy formats. Consider him at best an AL-only Fantasy reserve.
Junichi Tazawa
Tazawa being transitioned to RP
Junichi Tazawa, RP, BOS
12:39 PM
News: The Boston Globe reports Red Sox pitching coach Bob McClure said the team plans to take a look at Junichi Tazawa as a reliever.
Analysis: Tazawa did make three relief appearances for Boston last season, but he mostly has started in the minors. However, he has struggled since returning from Tommy John surgery, which is why the Red Sox want to see if his new career path is as a reliever. If that's the case, then Tazawa's Fantasy value takes a hit for the time being. Continue to ignore him in all formats, including long-term keeper leagues.
Bud Norris
Norris focused on pitching 200 innings
Bud Norris, SP, HOU
12:34 PM
News: MLB.com reports one of Astros SP Bud Norris' goals for the 2012 season is reaching 200 innings for the first time in his MLB career. "I'm pretty happy with the strides I made last year and I'm continuing to move forward," he said. "The main goal for me is to play 10 years in the big leagues and hopefully get that World Series win. That's what it's all about. Another thing Roy (Oswalt) taught me before he left was to try to get to 200 innings. If you get to 200 innings, you're giving your team the best opportunity to win and I hope that I can get out there and do that."
Analysis: Norris hasn't had a winning season in the majors since he went 6-3 as a rookie in 2009. That might not change in 2012 because Houston isn't expected to contend. However, Norris had a career-best 3.77 ERA in 2011 and is still striking out 8.8 batters per nine innings in his MLB career. He flies under the radar in Fantasy because the lack of wins, but Norris is worth a look as a back-of-the-rotation arm in deep mixed Fantasy leagues.
Jose Veras
Veras loses arbitration case
Jose Veras, RP, MIL
12:01 PM
News: CBSSports.com baseball insider Jon Heyman reports Brewers RP Jose Veras lost his arbitration case. He will make $2 million in 2012 instead of the $2.375 million he sought in arbitration.
Analysis: Veras arrived in Milwaukee in December as part of the Casey McGehee trade with the Pirates. Veras went 2-4 with a 3.80 ERA in 71 innings for Pittsburgh last season. He won't be a closer with the Brewers and will work in middle relief. Veras is merely a low-end Fantasy RP.
Dillon Gee
Gee prepping for the long haul
Dillon Gee, SP, NYM
11:33 AM
News: Newsday reports Mets SP Dillon Gee is focusing on finishing out the 2012 season after he struggled in the second half in 2011. Gee admitted fatigue played a part in his ERA rising to 5.25 after the All-Star break. He had a 3.76 ERA in the first half. "As the months went on, my stuff just got kind of bland," Gee said. "I feel that comes from fatigue. As soon as your legs get tired, you start overcompensating one way or the other, maybe relaxing a little bit. That throws off your release point, and in the end, the movement on your pitches. Earlier in the year, when I was fresh, you could see a big difference in the video that I watched."
Analysis: Gee said he is looking "for nothing but improvement" in 2012. He clearly has figured out what his biggest hurdle is to make sure he has a successful campaign. "I've had bouts of inconsistency where I jumped a level because it's a different thing you never experienced," Gee said. "My first full year in the big leagues was a long season for me. I wasn't used to that. It's only a month longer than minor leagues, but mentally, it's challenging. Every start, you have to focus so much harder, and that drains you. So I think learning how to deal with that and knowing what to expect this next year." Gee finished 2011 with 13 wins, but it could be a little tougher for victories this season as the Mets aren't the same star-filled team they used to be. Gee is merely a late-round Fantasy flier.
 
 
 
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