If you read enough reports this winter, you know how little the rumor mill liked the prospects of Mets farmhands Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra. But even New York talk radio thought there was no way that package could get a Johan Santana deal done.
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Prospect Kevin Mulvey pitched for Team USA in the Futures Game last July in San Francisco.
(Getty Images)
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Now those four prospects equal the best pitcher in baseball, so you have to at least take notice.
If you reminisce to July 1989, the Mets picked up another well-regarded lefty from the Twins, Frank Viola. And few thought that much of Jack Savage, Tim Drummond, Kevin Tapani, David West and Rick Aguilera.
We'll give you the first two wound up being never-weres, but the final three pieces of that deal helped the Twins win the World Series in 1991. Tapani was a 16-game-winner that year and Aguilera a knockout 42-save closer.
Viola went 20-7 with a 2.67 ERA in his first full season with the Mets in 1990. Those are numbers Santana could easily reach with the potent Mets offense that also backs him with a great park for pitchers and a defense that is unmatched up the middle.
The Twins would sure take winning a World Series in two years with Gomez replacing Torii Hunter in center and the three pitchers combining to either stock the system with trade bait or stock the rotation with the new set of potential 15-game-winners.
Here is our breakdown of the key pieces of the Santana trade agreement (ranked in order of their expected dividends this season):
Current Baseball America rankings: No. 3 in Mets system
Gomez is a burner who even baseball's steals leader Jose Reyes admitted can beat him in a foot race. That kind of center fielder doesn't come around too often. Sure, Gomez only hit .232 in 125 at-bats last season with the Mets, but Gomez has Carl Crawford-like potential and will get a chance to display it every day in center for the Twins this season. Gomez stole 12 bases in about 1/5 of a season last year and should be a threat for 40-50 steals if he manages to hit even .250 this season. At 6-foot-4 and 195 pounds, he has a projectable frame and should develop power. We could see a .280, 20-homer, 60-steal threat in his prime with Gold Glove-caliber defense to boot. Ask the Mets (Carlos Beltran) or the Angels (Hunter and Gary Matthews) how much the latter is worth.
Current Baseball America rankings: No. 7 in Mets system
Humber is the oldest of the quartet and the lowest-rated prospect of the group, but the College World Series hero was selected No. 3 overall in the 2004 draft. That is one spot behind Tigers ace Justin Verlander, nine spots ahead of burgeoning Angels ace Jered Weaver and 20 spots higher than the other long-rumored Yankees bargaining chip Phil Hughes. So, clearly there is potential here with the former Rice star. The problem the past few years is he has been recovering from Tommy John elbow surgery, finally having a full healthy year in 2007, going 11-9 with a 4.27 ERA, 7.77 K/9 and 2.85 BB/9 in 139 innings. If it didn't take him three years to finally have a full year on the mound, that would represent a strong first pro season. We see a middle of the rotation starter who won't wow you, but can win 14-15 games on a contender in his prime. He will compete for the No. 5 starter's job in Minnesota this spring and likely open the year as the ace in Triple-A.
Current Baseball America rankings: No. 4 in Mets system
Mulvey, a 22-year-old second-round pick in 2006, took a huge stride forward in the Mets organization last year, becoming one of the better pitching prospects in baseball. The ground-ball pitcher allowed just four homers in 27 starts between Double- and Triple-A, going 12-10 with a 3.20 ERA and a .246 batting-average against. He struck out 110 batters and walked 43, but the key is he keeps the ball down. He could be ready for the Twins rotation by the end of the year and will be one of those pitchers who gets the most out of his stuff if he is pitching for a team with strong defense up the middle and in a big ballpark. Minnesota qualifies in both those areas, which can make Mulvey a sleeper down the stretch and a 2009 AL Rookie of the Year candidate.
Current Baseball America rankings: No. 2 in Mets system
Last but most certainly not least, the Twins add a potentially elite arm to their system in Guerra. He is a little bit of the next "Daniel Cabrera." While that might sound like a bad thing, there is plenty of projectability on his 6-5, 200-pound frame. Having thrown just 179 pro innings to date, Guerra will start the year in high Class A or Double-A and be a year or two from making an impact in the majors. The general thought among scouts is Guerra has the highest ceiling of the Santana trade pieces; they will just have to wait for the Venezuelan teen-ager to build up his arm strength and repertoire.
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