New Coke. "Waterworld." Dolly Parton. Those are just a few of the famous busts in American history. But what about possible Fantasy Baseball busts?
Our definition of a bust is a player that will probably be drafted in earlier rounds that will not live up to his value. Granted, you can also make a case for someone that gets drafted in the later rounds that turns in an even worse season, but that does little for Fantasy readers.
We could go the safe route, highlighting pitchers that are throwing with a thread of elbow ligaments left that most people will stay away from anyway, but we are gutsier than that. Some of the following names will surprise you, certainly, but rest assured that there will likely be bigger busts than even the ones we mention here.
Last year, we warned you about taking Alfonso Soriano with the top three or four draft picks after the amazing season he had in Washington in a contract year. While he still had a nice year, it was nowhere close to top draft-pick worthy.
What do we have for you this season? Let's dig in.
2008 All-Potential Busts Team
Catcher -- Jorge Posada, NYY: Ho-Po is currently being drafted in the early part of the ninth round on average in CBSSports.com leagues as the fifth-best catcher. We even have him ranked as the fifth-best catcher, but we're also proponents of waiting on him in drafts. His career year coincidentally came in a contract season with the Yankees. He hit 50 points higher than any other season in his 13-year career and he's bound to come back. What goes up must come down, so said that Newton guy.
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What can owners expect from Mark Teixeira with a full season in the National League?
(US Presswire)
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First base -- Mark Teixeira, ATL: By projecting out Big Tex's numbers over a full season (he missed a month with a bad quad), he would have compiled about 36 homers and 125 RBI last year. He smashed 17 of his 30 homers -- in two months -- with Atlanta after coming over in a trade at the deadline. But five of the 10 teams he hit homers against from August to Sept. were ranked among the worst seven pitching staffs in the majors in home runs allowed. He loses
Andruw Jones in the lineup and the Braves didn't bring in any big bats to help Teixeira or
Chipper Jones out. We have him ranked pretty high, but a dropoff wouldn't be unreasonable.
Lance Berkman,
Derrek Lee and
Justin Morneau could all easily have better seasons.
Second base -- Brian Roberts, BAL: The leadoff hitter for the Orioles could be on a new team by the start of the season. Fantasy owners will draft him on the strength of his career-high 50 steals a year ago. He also had a career high 180 hits and 89 walks last year, which we doubt he can duplicate. Ian Kinsler, B.J. Upton and Rickie Weeks are all younger players who could out-produce him by season's end. He's also 30 years old now, which is usually when speedsters slow down a step.
Shortstop -- Miguel Tejada, HOU: He has one 100-RBI season in his past three years. Actually, his 514 at-bats, 152 hits, 72 runs scored, 19 doubles, 18 homers, 81 RBI and two steals were his lowest numbers in each of those categories in the past seven seasons. A move to HR-friendly Minute Maid Park might help, especially hitting with Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman around him, but Tejada's best days are well behind him and people are drafting him too high because of his name and the fact that "150 RBI" was once attached to it.
Third base -- Ryan Braun, MIL: That's right, I said it. The guy that ripped the cover off the ball in just five months of the majors last year is someone I think might take a small step back. Is he still a top-10 third basemen? Of course. Should he continue to be drafted with the third pick of the second round on average? That's a tough one. I'd like to point to a slow finish to the season, but he had nine homers and 29 RBI in September -- that's pretty good. What was my point again? OK, so I'm not completely sold on labeling him a bust, but still the 15th-best player in Fantasy? That's a tough sell.
Outfielder -- Magglio Ordonez, DET: Maggs led the majors in batting with the second-highest number (.363) in the past five years. How can I bet against him duplicating that? He has two straight seasons with over 590 at-bats, so I can't point to his health. He's adding Miguel Cabrera in front of him, so he'll have even better protection. But again, this is a guy that hit 43 points higher than any other season, which means the average will come down. For his average to come back to .300, which is still higher than what he averaged in the three previous seasons (2004-06), then that's 38 fewer hits. That puts him at about 23 homers and around 115 RBI.
Outfielder -- Eric Byrnes, ARI: He stole 33 bags in the second half last season, after punching out 14 homers in the first 3 1/2 months. What do you want him for: power or speed? By using Murphy's Law, he'll hurt you in whatever you needed him for most. He had a career total of 65 steals before last season -- then he swiped 50. He got a nice contract and should go back to being a No. 5 OF, not a No. 3, like he's being drafted on average.
Outfielder -- Aaron Rowand, SF: Are you seeing a trend here? Rowand had his best season last year -- and he signed a hefty contract in the offseason with the Giants. He posted career highs in at-bats (612), hits (189), runs scored (105), homers (27), RBI (89) and walks (47). He leaves Citizens Bank Park for AT&T Park, which ranks much lower on the homer-friendly rankings, and he's easily the best offensive player left in the lineup.
Starting pitcher -- C.C. Sabathia, CLE: Carsten Charles reached 200 innings for just the second time in his career, 34 starts for the first time, and 200 Ks for the first time. Without question, the AL Cy Young winner had a career season in nearly every facet, which is one of the reasons I think he's bound to take at least a small step back in '08.
Starting pitcher -- Brett Myers, PHI: The controversial right-hander moves back into the Phillies' rotation, but will he be able to just turn it back on? In three starts last season, he went 0-2 with a 9.39 ERA. This is a weak argument as a bust, but he does pitch in Philly and he's never a stranger to bad circumstances.
Starting pitcher -- Francisco Liriano, MIN: He struck out over a batter per inning in 2006, his rookie season. His 12 wins were third among rookie pitchers that year, and his 2.16 ERA led all major leaguers with at least 100 innings pitched! He's coming off Tommy John surgery from over a year ago, and reports are that he's throwing well. He's currently being drafted 22nd on average in CBSSports.com leagues -- that's a No. 2 SP in most leagues. That means people are taking him over pitchers like Jered Weaver and Chien-Ming Wang. That's a big gamble to take in the eighth round of most drafts. If you can get him later, do so. Otherwise, invest elsewhere.
Relief pitcher -- Jose Valverde, HOU: The safe pick as a bust here is obviously the man Valverde's replacing in Brad Lidge, but that's too easy. Valverde gave up seven homers last season, which was the third-highest number of the 18 relievers with at least 30 saves. The Diamondbacks allowed 88 homers at Chase Field last year, but the Astros gave up 20 more dingers at Minute Maid Park last year. They allowed 108 last season at home. While the Astros bullpen has been overhauled, it's still interesting to note that they had the third-highest ERA in the NL last season.
Relief pitcher -- Joe Borowski, CLE: This one isn't a stretch by any means, but considering he led the AL with 45 saves in '07, we have to talk about him. His ERA was north of 5.00, and many point to that bloated number as a result of bad outings in non-save situations. But that has to catch up to him at some point. His ERA with runners on base was a painful 8.73 and the Indians have Rafael Betancourt waiting in the wings. Twenty-one relief pitchers are being drafted ahead of him on average right now, so you guys aren't sold on him either I see.
There you have it. I don't think all of these players will disappoint -- but I'm confident a good number of them will. So feel free to send me your own busts with sound reasoning behind them, and I'll try to post them in a future column.
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