Number crunchers: Power

Steroids. Expansion teams. Mile-high air. HGH. Bandbox ballparks. Eric Milton.

Those are just a few reasons for the past 13 home run derby-like seasons in Major League Baseball.

For Fantasy owners, we're ambivalent to the influx of muscle, since homers and RBI come at the expense of our pitchers' ERA and WHIP. But there's no question that the power game has helped add excitement to the game, and bring in more fans, which has translated into more Fantasy Baseball players.

While there might not be a large difference in power numbers from one season to the next, it is interesting to look at total season stats over a larger time period to see which way the league is trending.

The winning Powerball number is ...

Alex Rodriguez turned in one of the best Fantasy seasons in recent memory last season, posting the best power numbers in Head-to-Head leagues since Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa in 2001. A-Rod's 54 homers led the league obviously, but looking at his 156 RBI -- that's the highest total in that category since Sosa's 160 in the NL in '01 and Manny Ramirez's 165 in the AL in 1999.

Does that mean we're about to go through another 2001-type season in which major league teams averaged 182 homers? Not so much. The 30 MLB teams averaged only 165 homers last season, which happens to be the lowest average since 1995 -- the first season after the strike and the lockout.

Last season, there were only 26 hitters that smacked at least 30 home runs. That number is also the lowest since '95. In '06, 34 batters hit at least 30 homers, back down to 27 in '05, and then up again to 37 in '04. There were 439 fewer home runs hit last year compared to 2006.

With that dip in power, we saw stolen bases climb to its highest number since 1995. As a matter of fact, 42 hitters stole at least 20 bases last year -- the highest number in the past seven seasons. In '06, there were 35 players that reached that number. There were a total of 2,918 stolen bases last year -- up 150 steals from the previous season. And compared to 2003, there has been a 13.4-percent increase in total steals in a five-year span.

What does that portrait mean to the Fantasy viewer looking out his window? It means that there are enough speedsters to go around, and the drop in power numbers should induce you into picking some sluggers a littler earlier to get a bigger piece of a smaller pie.

Factors for decline

Is pitching better? Are hitters worse? Are parks bigger? There's a few different reasons in my estimation for the dip last year. One of which that I think is overlooked is the weather.

Remember how cold it was last April throughout much of the country? Spring breakers were wearing parkas. The Easter Bunny laid eggsicles. Snow actually postponed an entire series between Seattle and Cleveland at Jacobs Field.

Offense was down as hitters were unable to get comfortable at the plate and send the ball deep when they were able to hit. The table to the right shows the difference from April to May in the past two seasons. Notice that there was a half-run difference in April ERAs from year to year.

Here I am talking about a power outage that looks initially like it might be due to weather, but this trend held up throughout much of the season. Teams began to run more and they never really slowed down. Teams stole 120 more bases in the second half of '07 than they did in the first half. These two stats aren't mutually exclusive and one does not always detract from another. But it's obvious that teams needed to manufacture runs in other ways than the long ball, and moving runners into scoring position is one way to do that.

Changing of the guard?

Looking at the past eight seasons, back to 2000, it's interesting to note that A-Rod is the only hitter to smack at least 30 homers in each year. And of the '07 30-HR hitters, only Albert Pujols and Jim Thome have done it seven times (Pujols was not in the majors in 2000 and Thome has hit 30 homers in 11 of the past 12 seasons). Five other players have hit 30 homers in five of the past eight seasons, including another '01 rookie, Alfonso Soriano.

Only 17 of the 26 hitters hit at least 30 homes in two seasons, including 2007. Players like Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Carlos Pena, Brandon Phillips, Jimmy Rollins, Dan Uggla, David Wright and Chris B. Young hit 30 homers for the first time. But most of these will likely be back in this club in '08, considering that only Rollins, Pena and Uggla are over 26 years old.

Falling under the radar

Some sluggers didn't get their just recognition last season, whether it was due to injury or other circumstances, they were unable to join the 30-HR club.

Brad Hawpe was one dinger shy of 30, and he did it in 516 at-bats, which is fewer than all but five of the sluggers with more homers. Along with Matt Holliday, they were the only two NL outfielders on the same team with over 100 RBI also.

Jack Cust hit 26 home runs in less than 400 at-bats, which is five more home runs than the total he hit in the majors between '01-'06. This winter he was tied to steroids allegations -- NO!!! -- which he has since denied ever using. Either way, he'll DH for the A's this summer, although he'll need the rest of the team to juice up if they hope to score some runs.

B.J. Upton hopes to join the 30-30 club at some point in his career, and that could happen as soon as '08. He ended a strong season with 10 homers and 36 RBI in August and September.

Indians 1B Ryan Garko had 21 homers last year, but it's the seven home runs in September that should get you excited about him. He's a nice late-round corner infielder to take a chance on in mixed-league play. In early February, there were 17 other 1B-eligible players getting drafted higher on average in CBSSports.com Rotisserie leagues.

Some youngsters entering the league that should be able to provide some pop this season (not necessarily at the start of the season) include: Oakland 1B Daric Barton, Cincinnati OF Jay Bruce and 1B Joey Votto, Tampa Bay 3B Evan Longoria, Pittsburgh OF Steve Pearce, St. Louis OF Colby Rasmus and Colorado 2B Ian Stewart.

Numbers needed to win

When looking at power numbers in Rotisserie play, we're mostly talking about the home run and RBI categories, although certainly, batting average and runs scored are also affected. But for this column, we'll concentrate mostly on what numbers you want your team to project out to if you hope to compete in these categories.

In the home run category, you should win (or come close to winning) the category with about 315 home runs. If you are targeting one of the top three spots, then 300 should be a safe number. And if you just want to make sure you are in the upper half, try to draft a team that can punch out at least 270 homers. Anything around 225 homers and you'll likely be considered the Royals of your Fantasy league.

From an RBI perspective, you should be the RBI leader if your Rotisserie team has a number close to 1,200 RBI. You should be a top-three squad if you have 1,150 RBI, and in the top half if you have at least 1,100 RBI. But 950 or fewer should get you only a few Rotisserie points.

Head-to-Head helpers and haters

In Head-to-Head play, slugging is usually half the battle, with starting pitching taking up most of the other half. But check your stats because if your league deducts one point for strikeouts, you could be looking at a 150-point difference in a player's season points total.

Look at someone like Ryan Howard who struck out 199 times last season, and his 47 homers (worth four points apiece, not including RBI and runs scored) quickly becomes a minus-11 net total. But then there's Carlos Lee, who hit 32 homers, but struck out just 63 times for a positive net total of 65.

Another point to consider is that if you lose a point for a strikeout and gain a point for a walk, then a lot of these high-K sluggers who draw a lot of walks return to Fantasy respectability. David Ortiz (35 HR, 111 BB, 103 Ks) drew more walks than he struck out last season, which puts him at a positive net total of 148.

But Head-to-Head owners have to be leery of some of the young sluggers like Braun (34 HR, 29 BB, 112 Ks) and Young (32 HR, 43 BB, 141 Ks). In those three categories, Braun finished with a positive net total of 53 and Young with just a plus-30. Some rookies to stay away from in the early parts of their careers in Head-to-Head play also include Cameron Maybin (49 AB, 21 Ks last year) and Adam Jones (65 AB, 21 Ks).

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