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David Gonos

Youth wasted on the young, not your bench

By | Senior Fantasy Writer

The changing of the baseball guard has begun.

The first week or so of the regular season has a notably newer look to it. Players like Carlos Gomez (22), Johnny Cueto (22), J.R. Towles (24), Kurt Suzuki (24), Edinson Volquez (24), Lastings Milledge (23) and Manny Parra (25) are climbing the owned percentages in CBSSports.com leagues quickly. Yet there are other young players or rookies -- that came into the spring with a lot more publicity -- now costing their Fantasy owners spots on their bench: Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria, Cameron Maybin, Steve Pearce, Geovany Soto, Chris Volstad and Joey Votto.

We haven't even mentioned the youngest player in the majors right now, red-hot Justin Upton (20).

Over the past several years, teams are beginning to trust their youngsters a little earlier than in the past, mostly because these players have been harder tested in high school, AAU and college games than ever before. And with big contracts comes big responsibilities. Some players are able to handle the early pressure, whereas others need to arrive under their own volition.

Let's take a closer look at the fast-starting newbies:

Breaking out-fielders

Upton is an interesting case. The right fielder for the Diamondbacks already has three homers and a .393 batting average. Unfortunately, he has as many homers as he does RBI (all three were solo jobs), his 10 strikeouts put him on pace for 170 Ks for the season and he has yet to steal a base. Owners are leaning on him for help in steals, which is supposed to be something he has worked on this past offseason. He doesn't have one attempt so far. Don't worry about those numbers -- the steals or the homers -- just be happy he is getting on base regularly. In the end, he'll get you your speed numbers (runs, steals) as he develops that part of his game earlier than the rest.

Michael Bourn is proving to be a pleasant surprise for the Astros. (US Presswire)  
Michael Bourn is proving to be a pleasant surprise for the Astros. (US Presswire)  
Lastings Milledge came over to the Nats much like Elijah Dukes did -- a talented player that has been a problem in the locker room and away from the game. But he just turned 23 on Saturday, and unless you lose points for bad attitudes, he'll make for a solid Fantasy outfielder, as long as he hits in front of Ryan Zimmerman. He doesn't have Upton's speed, but he should be able to knock in more runs and hit for a better average.

Carlos Gomez has taken a lot of heat off the Twins for their Johan Santana trade. Consider that the Marlins -- a team with many more holes than the Twins -- had to send Cameron Maybin down for seasoning, even though he was, along with Andrew Miller, their prize in the Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis trade. Gomez has five stolen bases, but he has hit safely in every game but one so far. He's bunting to get on, he's sliding headfirst and has emerged as an early favorite for Fantasy surprise of the month, considering he was battling Denard Span and Jason Pridie for the starting spot in center and he had a hamstring injury in late March. Check this out: On Tuesday, against the White Sox, he led the game off with a bunt single, stole second, and then scored on a hit by Joe Mauer. That's the third time this season that he has pulled off that sequence. Unfortunately, this Twins offense just hasn't taken his cue, and only three teams have scored fewer than their 23 runs so far -- and two of them are the Rockies and Tigers, who will blow by them any day now. Gomez will fall back to earth, much to my chagrin, but by season's end, he could still have 40 steals and a .270 batting average.

Michael Bourn, who was actually drafted in most leagues right around Milledge and Upton, is now known as the fastest man in the National League. He has six stolen bases (yet to be caught) and the Astros' leadoff man has reached base in every game, with a base hit in five of his first seven games. His trade from Philadelphia this past offseason brought him back home to Houston, where he went to college. "Michael is a guy who brings a different element for us," manager Cecil Cooper told the Houston Chronicle. "We had that (base-stealing threat) in (Willy) Taveras for a short period of time, but this guy has a chance to be a very, very good player at this level. I guess I'll just call him 'The Ignitor' now." He started out the '07 season with 15 consecutive steals with the Phillies. Gerald Young owns the team record with 65 steals -- and Bourn has his sights set on it. When he first got to this club, I was worried that Cooper wouldn't run him enough -- that's not the case.

And he might not be young (well, to me he is at 30), but Kosuke Fukudome is another hot newbie on the rise. He has reached base 18 times in his first seven games in the majors, with an on-base percentage of .580 -- he has proven that he's for real. The Cubs have the perfect mix of speed and power around him in the lineup, and his slap-and-run style will prove conducive to the owners that drafted him for hits and now power (he might not reach 20 homers). Fukudome has been traded on our site straight up for Ian Kinsler, Roy Oswalt and Brett Myers.

Making a sales pitch-ers

Johnny Cueto exploded onto the scene last week after a very impressive spring in which he forced manager Dusty Baker's hand to get him into the rotation. Then he went out and threw a perfect game through five innings against Arizona, ending the game with 10 strikeouts in seven innings and a win. He made his second start on Tuesday and left trailing 2-1 in the seventh inning and didn't factor in the decision. A great number to see on Cueto's line in the minors last season (he started at Class A Sarasota!) was 11 -- that's the number of homers he gave up in 28 starts at all three levels. His Fantasy ownership has climbed from 66 percent up to 92 percent as of Tuesday -- that's almost a 50-percent jump. Some recent one-for-one trades for Cueto on our site include players like Josh Beckett, Chad Billingsley, Robinson Cano, Brian Roberts and Billy Wagner. That's crazy talk. Adam Wainwright for Cueto? Much better.

Let's compare Cueto to his Dominican Dandy teammate in the Reds' rotation, Edinson Volquez. The right-hander who came over from Texas in exchange for Josh Hamilton got the win Sunday against Philadelphia. He's no stranger to small ballparks (coming from Arlington), and he struck out eight in 5 1/3 innings in his Reds debut. His ownership went from 60 percent to 79 percent over the past couple weeks. But, in my opinion, Volquez is the one you want to own between these two -- at least in seasonal leagues. And here are my reasons:

  • Volquez already has three partial seasons with the Rangers in which he continually showed improvement.
  • Volquez will strike out three batters for every one he walks, which keeps runners off the bases and runs off the plate.
  • Cueto walked 12 batters in 17 1/3 spring innings, compared to Volquez's four walks in 20 innings.
  • With Baker as manager, the Reds will be quicker to send Cueto down to the minors if he has a couple bad outings, especially if Homer Bailey does anything positive at Triple-A Louisville.

Manny Parra struck out seven batters in 5 1/3 innings Saturday. He has been a very good pitching prospect for a few seasons now, striking out four or five batters for every one he that he walks. I have no doubts that he'll make plenty of noise this season -- but let's not forget that what he did was against the Giants. The same Giants that have a chance to eclipse the Houston Colt 45s from over three decades ago for fewest runs scored in a season. His ownership is only up to 53 percent, since he could still see time in the minors at some point. But 47 percent of CBSSports.com leagues should at least take a gamble on him.

Catch-ers if you can

Towles had a nice spring and was benched to start the season in favor of Brad Ausmus (to catch Roy Oswalt). While he does have two homers already -- he only has four hits total batting near the bottom of the Astros lineup. At just 24 years old, Towles is still considered a young catching prospect, since backstops develop their hitting skills a little later than other position players. You could do worse in mixed leagues for your No. 2 catcher, however.

Geovany Soto had a quiet first week with the Cubs, as Kosuke Fukudome got most of the attention as the new starter in the lineup. But after Monday's two-RBI game against the Pirates, he has knocked in a run in four of his first six games. Soto was the PCL MVP last season with Triple-A Iowa and he'll be a much better Fantasy asset than Towles this season. Our readers agree -- Soto is owned and started in nearly twice as many of our leagues as Towles. Considering only five catchers knocked in more than 70 runs last season -- Soto is becoming a top-10 catcher in Fantasy.

And in the Seriously? This Guy? Category ...

Eugenio Velez is forcing the Giants to find positions for him to play. He started in right field Sunday and then at second base Monday. He hit a ground-rule double that would have been a triple Sunday, then he hit a real triple Monday. He has played three positions in seven games, but the Giants would do better to put him at one spot and leave him there. His speed near the top of the order would do wonders for the RBI chances of Aaron Rowand and Bengie Molina. And if he hits some balls into Triples Alley at AT&T Park -- he could get a couple of inside-the-park homers. He's owned in 17 percent of CBSSports.com leagues, which is about right, but he has hit safely in six of seven games and he led the majors in spring training with 16.

Achy, breaky heart

Here's a quick look at some youngsters that have disappointed their Fantasy owners so far:

  • Evan Longoria, 3B, TB: He was hitless in his first 15 ABs at Triple-A Durham before going 3-for-4 with a walk, an RBI and a run scored.
  • Cameron Maybin, OF, FLA: He isn't moping after his demotion, batting .467 with a triple, two homers, four RBI and two steals in his first five games with Double-A Carolina. He has hit safely in each game and has an early OBP of .619. Another couple of solid weeks and the Marlins will have to bring him up.
  • Jay Bruce, OF, CIN: Just four hits in 19 at-bats (one homer) with Triple-A Louisville.
  • Joey Votto, 1B, CIN: He's supposedly the starter at first base, but Scott Hatteberg -- and now Jeff Keppinger -- are getting starts there. Don't give up on him (.167 BA) this early, since Baker is vowing to give him plenty of chances.
  • Steve Pearce, OF, PIT: After a big spring with the Pirates, he's hitting just .190 in five games for Triple-A Indianapolis, and Xavier Nady has exploded offensively. Unless he gets traded, Pearce will remain in the minors.

Tout Wars links:

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Player News
Joe Mauer
Mauer 'feels good' after workout
Joe Mauer, C, MIN
2:50 PM
News: The News-Press reports Twins C Joe Mauer took two rounds of batting practice and went through a set of conditioning drills around the base paths Monday, and he appeared to have no problems sprinting. Mauer battled leg injuries in 2011. “I feel good,” Mauer said. “It feels good to get back out here again.” Mauer also put to rest the rumors that he gained 30 pounds in the offseason. “I heard that, too, and I couldn’t believe it," he said. “It’s just how rumors start. There were a lot of things out there last year that weren’t true. I’m about 220, 225. I need to add a little more weight before we start.”
Analysis: While most players feel good when they arrive to camp, it's especially encouraging to hear Mauer say that since last season he was coming off knee surgery and wasn't ready for the start of spring training. Mauer will head into 2012 motivated after an injury-plagued 2011. There's no guarantee he is past his knee problems, but the Twins are going to do their best to make sure Mauer avoids the DL. There is obviously risk involved with drafting Mauer, but his potential to be an elite Fantasy option at catcher make it worth drafting him. An offseason of staying health could make Mauer a steal in the fifth or sixth round of mixed-league drafts.
Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens still trade candidate
Jair Jurrjens, SP, ATL
11:57 AM
News: CBSSports.com senior writer Danny Knobler reports sources said the Braves could try and trade SP Jair Jurrjens if he proves healthy in spring training. The Braves tried to trade Jurrjens this winter, but they couldn't find a taker because potential trade partners weren't convinced Jurrjens was healthy or could stay healthy. Jurrjens missed the end of the 2011 season with a knee injury and has made just 43 starts the last two seasons.
Analysis: When Jurrjens is healthy, he is one of the best pitchers in the majors. His 1.87 ERA in the first half last season was second to only Jered Weaver among major-league starters. Jurrjens has won 13-plus games in three of the last four seasons. So why would the Braves want to trade him? Well, Jurrjens is a free agent after the 2013 season and it appears Atlanta is ready to clear some rotation space for the likes of Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens with Jurrjens this spring. There appears to be a chance he might not finish the spring with Atlanta, which could mean Jurrjens slides down draft boards in NL-only formats that lose players who are traded to the AL. In mixed leagues, Jurrjens is still a decent mid-round Fantasy pick.
A.J. Burnett
Angels, Indians interested in Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
11:40 AM
News: FOXSports.com reports sources indicate the Angels are interested in Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, whose name has been heavily mentioned in trade rumors with the Pirates. However, the Angels are on Burnett's no-trade list and he wants to stay east. Pittsburgh is still considered the heavy favorite to potentially land Burnett. CBSSports.com baseball insider Jon Heyman said the Indians have also inquired about Burnett. The trade talks involve DH Travis Hafner, but Cleveland is unsure if it would make that trade. The Yankees also don't mind the free agent DH options available.
Analysis: Right now the hold up in the Pirates trade is how much money Pittsburgh will be willing to pay of Burnett's remaining salary over the next two years ($33 million) and the prospects the Pirates would send to the Yankees. Perhaps these rumors regarding the Angels and Indians might speed up the process, but other sources have said the Yankees would keep Burnett if the deal isn't right for them. Wherever Burnett pitches in 2012, he is going to be a late-round Fantasy pick coming off a turbulent 2011 campaign.
Coco Crisp
Crisp moving over for Cespedes?
Coco Crisp, CF, OAK
10:13 AM
News: Sources have told FOXSports.com that the Athletics intend to start newly signed Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes in center field right away, which would move Coco Crisp over to left field and Seth Smith to DH. Cespedes is already 26 and has faced upper-level competition in Cuba, but some scouts think he could use some time in the minors to adjust to the U.S. game.
Analysis: None of these reports are coming directly from the Athletics, so you should consider them nothing more than speculation at this point. Still, speculation is better than nothing, and if Cespedes is in fact going to be on the opening day roster, then he might even be worth drafting in the middle rounds, given his upside. As for Crisp, moving to left field wouldn't have any real impact on his Fantasy value. The Athletics outfield is even more crowded with the Cespedes signing, but the team seems to consider Crisp a mainstay at the top of the lineup. Given his base-stealing ability and doubles pop, he's a worthy fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.
Ryan Braun
Braun will know fate by Feb. 24
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
10:03 AM
News: Monday came and went without a ruling on Brewers OF Ryan Braun's pending 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It was the 25th day since the three-man panel heard Braun's appeal. According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the panel was supposed to “make all reasonable efforts” to deliver a verdict within that period of time, but chairman Shyam Das was given an extension. A decision is expected before Braun reports to spring training on Feb. 24, but the exact date is unknown since the process is intended to be confidential.
Analysis: The panel's need for a lengthy deliberation is theoretically a good sign, but then again, since the process is usually confidential, we don't know how common such extensions are. Braun's case is said to be unique, but it might not make much of a difference to the panel. If you're drafting now, you should do so with the expectation that Braun will miss the first 50 games of the season, which could allow him to slip to the middle rounds in standard mixed leagues. If the appeal is upheld, though, he's suddenly back to being a first-rounder in Fantasy.
Tsuyoshi Nishioka
Nishioka wants to be 'aggressive'
Tsuyoshi Nishioka, SS, MIN
2:58 PM
News: The News-Press reports Twins SS Tsuyoshi Nishioka arrived a week early to spring training so he could adjust to the time difference from Japan. He worked out Monday and said through a translator that adjusting to his first experience in the majors took its toll on him in 2011. “I want to be more aggressive,” Nishioka said. “Not knowing right from left, it was strange playing the sport of baseball. It’s difficult when you think about it. Driving a car, you drive on opposite sides of the road. Outside the ballpark, there were lifestyle adjustments, too. That made it pretty difficult.”
Analysis: It's good that Nishioka has come to camp with the right attitude. However, he is still looking at being a reserve after the team signed Jamey Carroll to start at shortstop. That's not to say Nishioka can't emerge as a starter at some point this season, but the Twins are going to make him earn it. Nishioka is at best an AL-only Fantasy reserve on Draft Day.
Mike Moustakas
Moustakas in great shape
Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC
12:48 PM
News: Royals manager Ned Yost had his contract option for the 2013 season picked up on Tuesday, but the Kansas City skipper seemed more interested in talking about his 2012 team. Yost was impressed with how many players have shown up for spring training early and is really blown away by the fitness level of a few of his players. "Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas -- I'm extremely proud of both of those guys," Yost told reporters. "They could be in the best shape they've been in their careers. Billy looks great, and I didn't even hardly recognize Moose he looks so good."
Analysis: While the fitness level doesn't necessarily mean a player will have success, it really can't hurt either. To hear Yost rave about Moustakas should get the attention of Fantasy owners. Moustakas, who is one of the Royals' top prospects, struggled when he first arrived in the majors last season. However, he seemed to have figured it out by season's end. Moustakas hit .352 with four homers and 12 RBI in his final 22 games last season. He is definitely one of the more intriguing Fantasy sleepers heading into 2012 and this latest report just adds to his appeal on Draft Day.
Jake Westbrook
Westbrook sheds 25 pounds
Jake Westbrook, SP, STL
2:11 PM
News: The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports Cardinals SP Jake Westbrook has shown up for spring training 25 pounds lighter than he was last season.
Analysis: This is the time of year where everyone seems to come to camp in better shape than they left last season. Hopefully for Westbrook it makes a difference in his game. He did go 12-9 in 2011, but he posted a 4.66 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 33 starts. Westbrook can chew up innings, but he won't post impressive ERA, WHIP or strikeout total. Leave him for NL-only Fantasy formats.
Jhoulys Chacin
Chacin fires back at GM
Jhoulys Chacin, SP, COL
12:07 PM
News: The Denver Post reports Rockies SP Jhoulys Chacin responded to comments made by GM Dan O'Dowd, who expressed concern recently about Chacin's offseason conditioning. "I came to Arizona this past Monday. I have not stopped training during the winter, both in my country and here," Chacin told Venezuelan newspaper Meridiano. "I have always done the best job I could all throughout these past few months. I don't know where these comments came from. I believe they're the result of what other people have told him, instead of his own personal evaluation. I am looking forward to meeting O'Dowd personally, and I am confident that he will have a different conclusion after a firsthand evaluation." O'Dowd made his comments after seeing Chacin at the team's Fanfest in January. "He looked OK. It wasn't as bad as I anticipated," O'Dowd said. "It's still not what it should be."
Analysis: O'Dowd believes Chacin needs to lose weight because the excess pounds affect the balance in his delivery and cause his fastball command to suffer. Chacin spent much of the winter working out in his native Venezuela after working out in Tucson previously. On Feb. 9, Chacin reportedly weighed 226 pounds but anticipates being close to the 218 pounds he was last spring when he reports to spring training on Feb. 19. Chacin went 8-7 with a 3.16 ERA in 18 pre-All Star break starts last year and went 3-7 with a 4.31 ERA in 13 starts after the break. Chacin struggled with walks in the second half and was much more hittable down the stretch than he was early in the season. This situation is clearly not the way Fantasy owners want to see Chacin kick off the 2012 season, but perhaps this will provide him with the motivation he needs to reach elite status. Look to Chacin as a mid-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.
Kyle Seager
Seager gets work at first base
Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA
1:25 PM
News: The Seattle Times reports Mariners 3B Kyle Seager took grounders at first base Tuesday. Manager Eric Wedge said it was because of pitcher fielding drills Seager was at first base.
Analysis: It's interesting to see Seager working at another position in camp with Wedge calling him the front-runner for the third-base job. However, it appears clear that Seager was just needed as an extra body during fielding drills. Justin Smoak is still the team's first baseman and Mike Carp is his expected backup. Carlos Guillen can also play first base, so we can't look too much into Seager taking grounders at first. His main focus should be winning the 3B job over the likes of Alex Liddi and Chone Figgins. Consider Seager nothing more than a late-round, low-end Fantasy corner infielder on Draft Day. He does have some sleeper potential, but don't reach for him in drafts.
 
 
 
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