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Scott White

Dear Mr. Fantasy: Getting jumpy with Jorge

By | Fantasy Writer


One week in the books, and we're already having panic attacks.

The mailbag is overflowing with questions on lineup decisions and frantic cries of desperation. Should I start this guy or that guy? Should I cut this guy so soon, so soon!?

And then there's my personal favorite ...

Help! Help! Help! Help! Help!

Relax, people. We have a long way to go.

I know you want the perfect lineup right away. You want to set it just once, kick back and watch your stats tick upward. But it's too early for that. We don't yet have enough of a statistical base to do anything that definitive.

Just remember to trust your studs. You drafted them early for a reason, and they should all come around in due time. And no matter what lineup decisions you make, keep in mind you're not married to them. If you want to start Conor Jackson at corner infield over Troy Glaus for a few weeks, give it a go. You can always switch back later.

And now, on to the specifics.

I am stocked with outfielders in my one league. I have Eric Byrnes, Kosuke Fukudome, Chris B. Young, Carlos Gomez and Nate McLouth. I can start four. Who do I sit? Right now, I am sitting McLouth, but he is red hot. What do you suggest? -- George Hedden

SW: Project McLouth's stats last year over 550 at-bats, and he would have hit 22 home runs and stole 37 bases. Granted, you make a lot of assumptions with such a simple calculation, but when you consider those numbers, McLouth's hot start doesn't look like such a fluke. I think you definitely have to start him over a guy like Fukudome, who doesn't have the power to hit more than 15 home runs or so, and Gomez, who's a little too raw to trust for anything more than stolen bases. Right now, you have to ride the hot bat of Fukudome over Gomez no matter what the league format, but over the long haul, I like Gomez more in Rotisserie leagues and Fukudome more in Head-to-Head leagues.

We had our doubts about Jorge Posada in 2008, and now a sore arm is holding him back. (US Presswire)  
We had our doubts about Jorge Posada in 2008, and now a sore arm is holding him back. (US Presswire)  
I have Jorge Posada as my No. 1 catcher. I have Kurt Suzuki as my backup. Can I be safe by staying with Jorge? Early arm stiffness, he played DH (HE'S NO DH!), and heck, in Game 1 of this week, he didn't even play! Should I be worried here? I know it's early, but ... -- Ken Fowler, Stow, Ohio

SW: No buts, Ken. It is early. Players -- good players -- get off to slow starts just like everyone else. And while I could understand you thinking Posada's shoulder injury has something to do with his slow start, it sounds like something that affects him more on defense than on offense. Even if it lingers some throughout the season, the Yankees, being in the AL, always have the option of playing Posada at DH, so I imagine he'll get his 450 at-bats -- a solid number for a catcher -- without much difficulty. So no, don't worry, but don't expect him to hit .338 again either.

I have an etiquette question for you. I know that under normal circumstances, everyone would look down on me for picking someone up off free agency and then offering him in a trade. However, what if you see another owner's player go down with a major injury, they have no backup at that position, and you fly over to the free agent pool and swoop up the top player available, who happens to be head and shoulders above the rest of the group? Is it then acceptable to include that player in a trade offer, or is that still bad etiquette and just downright mean? -- Adam Loch, Blaine, Minn.

SW: We're not exactly playing Red Rover on the playground, Adam. You shouldn't have to worry about one of your leaguemates running home in tears. The key to making a trade work is to meet another team's needs, and if a well-timed free agent pickup helps you accomplish that, have at it. But keep in mind that your opponent is under no obligation to trade with you despite his glaring weakness. He might call your bluff, in a sense, by deciding that because you added that player simply to exploit his need, you'll eventually have to drop him after a few of your trade requests go unanswered. Just be prepared either to hang on to that player for longer than you intended or to let your opponent have the last laugh.

Someone just offered me Kevin Youkilis, Troy Tulowitzki, Brad Hawpe and Aaron Hill for Erik Bedard and Garrett Atkins. Notably, my shortstop position is a little shaky with Khalil Greene, and my second basemen is Placido Polanco, who is off to a rough start. Kevin Youkilis would become my starting third basemen because Albert Pujols is my first basemen. Should I make the move? -- Brian Giannone, Chicago

SW: When you make a trade, you generally want to be on the side that lands fewer players because in standard 10- or 12-team mixed leagues with extensive free agent lists, quality trumps quantity. However, because the quality of all four players you'd receiver here is pretty good, you have to give this trade a second look. The way I see it, you're giving up two early-round picks (Bedard and Atkins) for one early-round pick (Tulowitzki) and three mid-to-late-rounders. Really, I think this trade comes down to Hawpe. If you have a pressing need in your outfield, you might have to consider pulling the trigger. Nine times out of 10, though, I'll stick with the quality of Bedard and Atkins.

Help! My outfield is overcrowded! I have four outfield spots filled by Vladimir Guerrero, Matt Kemp, Josh Hamilton and Pat Burrell. In addition, I have Corey Hart in the utility spot and Jeremy Hermida on the DL. Justin Upton and Lastings Milledge are available on the waiver wire. I really want to add Upton, but I don't know who to drop and who to keep. -- Charlie Furtek, Lansing, Ill.

SW: Save the cries for help for when you're drowning, Charlie. We're only playing a game here. I just took an impromptu office poll, and Michael Hurcomb, David Gonos and I unanimously decided we'd cut Kemp for Upton at this point. The logic is pretty straightforward, I think. Kemp certainly doesn't have any more upside than Upton, and if one's already showing signs of a breakout while the other's kind of waffling, go with the former.

I need some extra batting average, home runs, and RBI in my lineup. Who should I start at my utility position: Casey Kotchman, Alex Gordon or Brandon Inge? Or should I try to mix it up based on matchups? -- Keith Petrower

SW: Well, I think you can immediately scratch Inge off your list. Once Curtis Granderson returns to the lineup, he's nothing more than a utility player for his real-life team. I think Kotchman is the safer bet for a high batting average, but Gordon could end up hitting for a high mark himself, and he certainly trumps Kotchman in power potential. Go with Gordon now and reassess a month or so into the season.

I recently got a trade offer in which I would receive Mariano Rivera and give up Rafael Soriano and Clayton Kershaw, who I have preserved in my minor-league slot. Do you think I should take the chance and hold on to Kershaw, hoping to get a rookie year like Francisco Liriano had two years ago, or should I just play it safe and get the sure saves from Rivera? -- Danny, Miami

SW: My recommendation changes dramatically, Danny, depending on if you play in a long-term keeper league or not. If you can keep Kershaw stashed in a minor-league slot for a year or two down the road, you might want to hold on to him. But based on the wording of your question, I get the impression he's your minor-leaguer for this year alone. In that case, I'd make the deal for the better closer. Look, Kershaw sounds like he has other-worldly talent, but the Dodgers already have a pretty deep staff, and if Jason Schmidt comes back from injury, it'll get even more crowded. Plus, Kershaw is only 20. It's not like he's anywhere near the point where the Dodgers have to worry about keeping him in the minor leagues too long. Kershaw could come up this year, and he could be great, but if he doesn't make his big-league debut until September, you'll feel pretty silly for not making that deal.

I took Barry Zito in the second-to-last round -- or 23rd -- thinking he was worth a gamble at this point and hoping that two sleepers, Carlos Villanueva or Boof Bonser, would come my way for my last pitcher. That backfired. Took another gamble on Shawn Hill, in the event he would come back from the early DL stint. What is the prognosis for both pitchers? Should I consider trading them? -- Paul Vieira, Ottawa

SW: Zito is kind of a funny case. I tend to think he's finished from a mixed-league standpoint, considering he didn't do anything worthwhile last year and has only looked worse in two starts this year, but I agree with Eric Mack that you shouldn't give up on him yet, just in case. Then again, when Hurcomb cut him in one of our office leagues this week, I didn't even bother to put in a claim for him, so what does that tell you? If nothing else, it tells you not to expect to get anything back for Zito in a trade because, as his current value stands, he's on the verge of becoming waiver wire fodder. As for Hill, if all goes well in his rehab start, he should make his first start Sunday, but he's barely on the radar in mixed leagues right now. He had too small of a sample size last year and too few strikeouts. Don't expect to get much for him in a deal either.

You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Dear Mr. Fantasy in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we do not guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Joe Mauer
Mauer 'feels good' after workout
Joe Mauer, C, MIN
2:50 PM
News: The News-Press reports Twins C Joe Mauer took two rounds of batting practice and went through a set of conditioning drills around the base paths Monday, and he appeared to have no problems sprinting. Mauer battled leg injuries in 2011. “I feel good,” Mauer said. “It feels good to get back out here again.” Mauer also put to rest the rumors that he gained 30 pounds in the offseason. “I heard that, too, and I couldn’t believe it," he said. “It’s just how rumors start. There were a lot of things out there last year that weren’t true. I’m about 220, 225. I need to add a little more weight before we start.”
Analysis: While most players feel good when they arrive to camp, it's especially encouraging to hear Mauer say that since last season he was coming off knee surgery and wasn't ready for the start of spring training. Mauer will head into 2012 motivated after an injury-plagued 2011. There's no guarantee he is past his knee problems, but the Twins are going to do their best to make sure Mauer avoids the DL. There is obviously risk involved with drafting Mauer, but his potential to be an elite Fantasy option at catcher make it worth drafting him. An offseason of staying health could make Mauer a steal in the fifth or sixth round of mixed-league drafts.

Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens still trade candidate
Jair Jurrjens, SP, ATL
11:57 AM
News: CBSSports.com senior writer Danny Knobler reports sources said the Braves could try and trade SP Jair Jurrjens if he proves healthy in spring training. The Braves tried to trade Jurrjens this winter, but they couldn't find a taker because potential trade partners weren't convinced Jurrjens was healthy or could stay healthy. Jurrjens missed the end of the 2011 season with a knee injury and has made just 43 starts the last two seasons.
Analysis: When Jurrjens is healthy, he is one of the best pitchers in the majors. His 1.87 ERA in the first half last season was second to only Jered Weaver among major-league starters. Jurrjens has won 13-plus games in three of the last four seasons. So why would the Braves want to trade him? Well, Jurrjens is a free agent after the 2013 season and it appears Atlanta is ready to clear some rotation space for the likes of Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens with Jurrjens this spring. There appears to be a chance he might not finish the spring with Atlanta, which could mean Jurrjens slides down draft boards in NL-only formats that lose players who are traded to the AL. In mixed leagues, Jurrjens is still a decent mid-round Fantasy pick.

A.J. Burnett
Angels, Indians interested in Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
11:40 AM
News: FOXSports.com reports sources indicate the Angels are interested in Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, whose name has been heavily mentioned in trade rumors with the Pirates. However, the Angels are on Burnett's no-trade list and he wants to stay east. Pittsburgh is still considered the heavy favorite to potentially land Burnett. CBSSports.com baseball insider Jon Heyman said the Indians have also inquired about Burnett. The trade talks involve DH Travis Hafner, but Cleveland is unsure if it would make that trade. The Yankees also don't mind the free agent DH options available.
Analysis: Right now the hold up in the Pirates trade is how much money Pittsburgh will be willing to pay of Burnett's remaining salary over the next two years ($33 million) and the prospects the Pirates would send to the Yankees. Perhaps these rumors regarding the Angels and Indians might speed up the process, but other sources have said the Yankees would keep Burnett if the deal isn't right for them. Wherever Burnett pitches in 2012, he is going to be a late-round Fantasy pick coming off a turbulent 2011 campaign.

Coco Crisp
Crisp moving over for Cespedes?
Coco Crisp, CF, OAK
10:13 AM
News: Sources have told FOXSports.com that the Athletics intend to start newly signed Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes in center field right away, which would move Coco Crisp over to left field and Seth Smith to DH. Cespedes is already 26 and has faced upper-level competition in Cuba, but some scouts think he could use some time in the minors to adjust to the U.S. game.
Analysis: None of these reports are coming directly from the Athletics, so you should consider them nothing more than speculation at this point. Still, speculation is better than nothing, and if Cespedes is in fact going to be on the opening day roster, then he might even be worth drafting in the middle rounds, given his upside. As for Crisp, moving to left field wouldn't have any real impact on his Fantasy value. The Athletics outfield is even more crowded with the Cespedes signing, but the team seems to consider Crisp a mainstay at the top of the lineup. Given his base-stealing ability and doubles pop, he's a worthy fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Ryan Braun
Braun will know fate by Feb. 24
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
10:03 AM
News: Monday came and went without a ruling on Brewers OF Ryan Braun's pending 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It was the 25th day since the three-man panel heard Braun's appeal. According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the panel was supposed to “make all reasonable efforts” to deliver a verdict within that period of time, but chairman Shyam Das was given an extension. A decision is expected before Braun reports to spring training on Feb. 24, but the exact date is unknown since the process is intended to be confidential.
Analysis: The panel's need for a lengthy deliberation is theoretically a good sign, but then again, since the process is usually confidential, we don't know how common such extensions are. Braun's case is said to be unique, but it might not make much of a difference to the panel. If you're drafting now, you should do so with the expectation that Braun will miss the first 50 games of the season, which could allow him to slip to the middle rounds in standard mixed leagues. If the appeal is upheld, though, he's suddenly back to being a first-rounder in Fantasy.

Michael Pineda
Pineda 'excited' to be with Yanks
Michael Pineda, SP, NYY
3:15 PM
News: Michael Pineda started his New York Yankees' career a little early. The All-Star pitcher acquired from Seattle last month joined pre-spring training workouts Tuesday at the Yankees' minor league complex. "I'm excited because it's my first time," Pineda said. "I'm working hard to help my team make it to the playoffs." The Mariners and Yankees completed a four-player trade that sent promising slugger Jesus Montero and pitcher Hector Noesi to the Mariners for Pineda and pitching prospect Jose Campos. "My mom is excited because she has a lot of family in New York, and she's never come to America," said Pineda, who's mother lives in the Dominican Republic. "So this year, it's the first time she's coming to America. She's excited." Pineda and second baseman Robinson Cano are friends, which should help the pitcher's adjustment. "He talked to me, (and said) focus on the game, in your work," Pineda said. "Don't worry. I'll take care of you."
Analysis: The 23-year-old got off to a 6-2 start with a 2.16 ERA in his first season before finishing at 9-10 with a 3.74 ERA. He led the major leagues by holding right-handed batters to a .184 average, and he struck out 173 in 171 innings. Every Fantasy owner is looking toward Pineda in pinstripes. Had he been on a contender as a rookie in 2011, then he might have had a better record. He went 9-10 in 28 starts. Ivan Nova went 16-4 with the Yankees in 28 outings (27 starts) last season, which Fantasy owners would take any day given Pineda's upside. Consider Pineda a top 25 Fantasy SP on Draft Day. He was already a must-own Fantasy SP, but joining the Yankees makes him that much more valuable.

Alex Liddi
Liddi to work at 1B in spring
Alex Liddi, 3B, SEA
3:09 PM
News: The Seattle Times reports Mariners manager Eric Wedge said 3B Alex Liddi will be playing first base for most of the spring. Liddi began taking grounders at first on Tuesday.
Analysis: It seems as though the Mariners want to see if they can find an alternative way to get Liddi on the roster in the event Kyle Seager and Chone Figgins prove to be viable options at third base. Liddi could be a backup to Justin Smoak at first base. However, it appears Liddi might only be vying for a backup role with Seattle, so unless he has an outstanding spring, then he should be left for AL-only Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka
Nishioka wants to be 'aggressive'
Tsuyoshi Nishioka, SS, MIN
2:58 PM
News: The News-Press reports Twins SS Tsuyoshi Nishioka arrived a week early to spring training so he could adjust to the time difference from Japan. He worked out Monday and said through a translator that adjusting to his first experience in the majors took its toll on him in 2011. “I want to be more aggressive,” Nishioka said. “Not knowing right from left, it was strange playing the sport of baseball. It’s difficult when you think about it. Driving a car, you drive on opposite sides of the road. Outside the ballpark, there were lifestyle adjustments, too. That made it pretty difficult.”
Analysis: It's good that Nishioka has come to camp with the right attitude. However, he is still looking at being a reserve after the team signed Jamey Carroll to start at shortstop. That's not to say Nishioka can't emerge as a starter at some point this season, but the Twins are going to make him earn it. Nishioka is at best an AL-only Fantasy reserve on Draft Day.

Mike Moustakas
Moustakas in great shape
Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC
12:48 PM
News: Royals manager Ned Yost had his contract option for the 2013 season picked up on Tuesday, but the Kansas City skipper seemed more interested in talking about his 2012 team. Yost was impressed with how many players have shown up for spring training early and is really blown away by the fitness level of a few of his players. "Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas -- I'm extremely proud of both of those guys," Yost told reporters. "They could be in the best shape they've been in their careers. Billy looks great, and I didn't even hardly recognize Moose he looks so good."
Analysis: While the fitness level doesn't necessarily mean a player will have success, it really can't hurt either. To hear Yost rave about Moustakas should get the attention of Fantasy owners. Moustakas, who is one of the Royals' top prospects, struggled when he first arrived in the majors last season. However, he seemed to have figured it out by season's end. Moustakas hit .352 with four homers and 12 RBI in his final 22 games last season. He is definitely one of the more intriguing Fantasy sleepers heading into 2012 and this latest report just adds to his appeal on Draft Day.

Jake Westbrook
Westbrook sheds 25 pounds
Jake Westbrook, SP, STL
2:11 PM
News: The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports Cardinals SP Jake Westbrook has shown up for spring training 25 pounds lighter than he was last season.
Analysis: This is the time of year where everyone seems to come to camp in better shape than they left last season. Hopefully for Westbrook it makes a difference in his game. He did go 12-9 in 2011, but he posted a 4.66 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 33 starts. Westbrook can chew up innings, but he won't post impressive ERA, WHIP or strikeout total. Leave him for NL-only Fantasy formats.

 
 
 
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