Each week three of our resident Fantasy writers will answer three pertinent questions that all owners should be asking themselves. Feel free to submit your own questions for this feature and we'll tackle them in this space.
Fantasy Triple Play
Do you think Rafael Betancourt will hold onto the closer's role in Cleveland for the rest of 2008?
Which White Sox starter will prove to be more valuable by season's end: Gavin Floyd or John Danks?
How long should owners sit tight before making potentially drastic decisions with their struggling studs?
Betancourt certainly has the stuff to keep the closer's job and Joe Borowski's (strained triceps) return from the 15-day disabled list shouldn't make a difference, in my opinion. The only problem could be if the Indians don't give Betancourt enough save chances in the next two weeks, keeping him from proving that he can pitch under pressure. Borowski has been an excellent setup man in the past and the Indians would do well to keep him there.
Coming up through the minors, Danks and Floyd were both considered future No. 2 or 3 starters in the majors. It seems like Floyd took a little longer to get going, but both are starting to hit their strides now. I like Danks more than Floyd because I think his command is better at this stage, despite him being inconsistent from start to start.
I like to look back on the first four weeks of play as my first real team examination. One month of play (one sixth of the season) allows your hitters enough of a sample to shake off any slumps -- and hot hitters to slow down if you plan on trading for one. And a month full of starts (about six in four weeks) allows a pitcher to show you what he can do at home, on the road, against good hitting teams and bad. It's also enough time to even out his early K/BB ratios.
Borowski's arm was garbage when he first came to Cleveland. Garbage in, garbage out. Betancourt is younger, has a better arm and should be a more consistent closer than Borowski ever was. Although he hasn't started all that impressively, Betancourt's status as a closer on a top contender makes him a must-add in most leagues at this point. He beat Jonathan Broxton to the punch as the top setup man to get promoted to close first.
Floyd and Danks showed dramatic improvement in their most recent starts. While they won't be that good over the long haul, there is sleeper potential there -- especially because the White Sox figure to have a monster offense backing them this season. We like Floyd and Danks better in Year 3, but if you have to choose between them this year, go with the more experienced Floyd. His curveball was already ready to be elite once he learned to command it.
Well, the key word here is "studs." You drafted your early rounders as such to lead your team over the course of a 26-week season. Week 3 or 4 is not the time to sell low. You buy low and sell high, not vice versa. Keep your studs -- and keep them active in most leagues -- and work on making up ground by finding the who's next. Ordinarily, if you are taking a chance on a guy -- a non-stud -- three weeks is a good timetable for evaluation. If you can wait longer, six weeks is even better. Hitting is cyclical and your "studs" will generally rebound over the longer haul to be right around where you expected them to be. Don't give up on Ryan Howard, Jose Reyes or Prince Fielder. Do move away from the fringe guys like Richie Sexson when they are struggling.
Ask me again in two weeks. OK, I won't take the chicken way out and man up here. I truly believe if Betancourt can perform well in Borowski's absence, the Indians aren't going to mess with success. Betancourt closed games out in the minors, so he has the experience. His last major work as a closer came in 2003 with Double-A Akron. He closed out 16 games in 31 outings (45 1/3 innings). He struck out 75 while posting a 1.40 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. It could be like getting back on a bicycle for the Venezuelan native.
Javier Vazquez. Oops. My bad. Wrong answer. If Floyd got to face the Tigers all season, he would be the easy choice since he is already 2-0 against them with a 2.02 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Unfortunately, he has to face other teams, and that has been a problem. He has a career 6.00 ERA and has had trouble the previous four seasons pitching in the majors. Danks didn't have a great debut in 2007 (6-13, 5.50 ERA), but he did fan 109 in 139 innings. For those who don't know, Danks was a big-time prospect in the Rangers' farm system before being acquired in a trade prior to 2007. Lefties do take a little longer to develop, but Danks' upside is why he gets my vote.
All season. I'm sorry, when it comes to struggling Fantasy stars, I'm too much of a wuss to deal them. I'm always afraid that I will get burned in the long run. I suffered through all their slumps, and I want to be on the right end when they break out. I can live with the fact that I stuck to my guns and rode out the season-long slump, but I can't live with myself if I put up the white flag too early.
You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Triple Play in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.
