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Fantasy Triple Play: A new closer in Cleveland?

Each week three of our resident Fantasy writers will answer three pertinent questions that all owners should be asking themselves. Feel free to submit your own questions for this feature and we'll tackle them in this space.

Fantasy Triple Play
  Do you think Rafael Betancourt will hold onto the closer's role in Cleveland for the rest of 2008? Which White Sox starter will prove to be more valuable by season's end: Gavin Floyd or John Danks? How long should owners sit tight before making potentially drastic decisions with their struggling studs?
David Gonos
David Gonos
Betancourt certainly has the stuff to keep the closer's job and Joe Borowski's (strained triceps) return from the 15-day disabled list shouldn't make a difference, in my opinion. The only problem could be if the Indians don't give Betancourt enough save chances in the next two weeks, keeping him from proving that he can pitch under pressure. Borowski has been an excellent setup man in the past and the Indians would do well to keep him there. Coming up through the minors, Danks and Floyd were both considered future No. 2 or 3 starters in the majors. It seems like Floyd took a little longer to get going, but both are starting to hit their strides now. I like Danks more than Floyd because I think his command is better at this stage, despite him being inconsistent from start to start. I like to look back on the first four weeks of play as my first real team examination. One month of play (one sixth of the season) allows your hitters enough of a sample to shake off any slumps -- and hot hitters to slow down if you plan on trading for one. And a month full of starts (about six in four weeks) allows a pitcher to show you what he can do at home, on the road, against good hitting teams and bad. It's also enough time to even out his early K/BB ratios.
Eric Mack
Eric Mack
Borowski's arm was garbage when he first came to Cleveland. Garbage in, garbage out. Betancourt is younger, has a better arm and should be a more consistent closer than Borowski ever was. Although he hasn't started all that impressively, Betancourt's status as a closer on a top contender makes him a must-add in most leagues at this point. He beat Jonathan Broxton to the punch as the top setup man to get promoted to close first. Floyd and Danks showed dramatic improvement in their most recent starts. While they won't be that good over the long haul, there is sleeper potential there -- especially because the White Sox figure to have a monster offense backing them this season. We like Floyd and Danks better in Year 3, but if you have to choose between them this year, go with the more experienced Floyd. His curveball was already ready to be elite once he learned to command it. Well, the key word here is "studs." You drafted your early rounders as such to lead your team over the course of a 26-week season. Week 3 or 4 is not the time to sell low. You buy low and sell high, not vice versa. Keep your studs -- and keep them active in most leagues -- and work on making up ground by finding the who's next. Ordinarily, if you are taking a chance on a guy -- a non-stud -- three weeks is a good timetable for evaluation. If you can wait longer, six weeks is even better. Hitting is cyclical and your "studs" will generally rebound over the longer haul to be right around where you expected them to be. Don't give up on Ryan Howard, Jose Reyes or Prince Fielder. Do move away from the fringe guys like Richie Sexson when they are struggling.
Scott White
Michael Hurcomb
Ask me again in two weeks. OK, I won't take the chicken way out and man up here. I truly believe if Betancourt can perform well in Borowski's absence, the Indians aren't going to mess with success. Betancourt closed games out in the minors, so he has the experience. His last major work as a closer came in 2003 with Double-A Akron. He closed out 16 games in 31 outings (45 1/3 innings). He struck out 75 while posting a 1.40 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. It could be like getting back on a bicycle for the Venezuelan native. Javier Vazquez. Oops. My bad. Wrong answer. If Floyd got to face the Tigers all season, he would be the easy choice since he is already 2-0 against them with a 2.02 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Unfortunately, he has to face other teams, and that has been a problem. He has a career 6.00 ERA and has had trouble the previous four seasons pitching in the majors. Danks didn't have a great debut in 2007 (6-13, 5.50 ERA), but he did fan 109 in 139 innings. For those who don't know, Danks was a big-time prospect in the Rangers' farm system before being acquired in a trade prior to 2007. Lefties do take a little longer to develop, but Danks' upside is why he gets my vote. All season. I'm sorry, when it comes to struggling Fantasy stars, I'm too much of a wuss to deal them. I'm always afraid that I will get burned in the long run. I suffered through all their slumps, and I want to be on the right end when they break out. I can live with the fact that I stuck to my guns and rode out the season-long slump, but I can't live with myself if I put up the white flag too early.

You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Triple Play in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Dice-K throwing off mound
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, BOS
11:52 AM
News: The Boston Globe reports while Red Sox pitchers and catchers don't officially have to report until Sunday, some players have arrived early, including SP Daisuke Matsuzaka. The paper noted that Matsuzaka, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery in June, was throwing off a mound with manager Bobby Valentine watching.
Analysis: Clearly, the fact Dice-K is already throwing off a mound is good news. However, we still have to temper expectations. It usually takes pitchers 12-18 months to recover from Tommy John surgery, so we aren't expecting to see Dice-K in a major-league game until mid-summer. We will continue to update his progress as the news warrants, but Dice-K is merely a draft-and-stash option in the deepest of Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

David Ortiz
Ortiz settles before hearing
David Ortiz, DH, BOS
11:11 AM
News: DH David Ortiz and the Red Sox came to terms on a one-year contract hours before the two sides were set to go to an arbitration hearing. Ortiz signed a one-year, $14.575 million contract.
Analysis: Now that Ortiz has this business out of the way he can get down to focusing on the baseball aspect of things. Ortiz hit .309 with 29 homers and 96 RBI in 2011. He is DH-eligible only in Fantasy, which hurts his appeal a bit. But Ortiz remains a viable early-to-mid-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day.

Chris Snyder
Snyder fully recovered from surgery
Chris Snyder, C, HOU
12:27 PM
News: The Houston Chronicle reports Astros catcher Chris Snyder said he is fully recovered from the back surgery he had in June.
Analysis: A lot of folks feel Snyder will make the Astros roster out of camp, but he still needs to prove he is past his back problem, which robbed him of most of the 2011 season with Pittsburgh. Manager Brad Mills has already said Jason Castro is the team's starting catcher, but he is recovering from foot surgery and isn't expected to be ready for spring games until the second week of the exhibition schedule. In the meantime, Snyder will be battling Humberto Quintero for the backup role. Snyder has decent pop for a catcher, but his strength is defense. Snyder is more of an NL-only Fantasy option.

Ian Desmond
Nats convinced Desmond will re-emerge
Ian Desmond, SS, WAS
11:41 AM
News: CSN Washington reports the Nationals are convinced shortstop Ian Desmond is in for a bounce-back season in 2012 because of two trends they spotted in 2011. The first is that Desmond made significant strides at the plate in the second half of last season. After hitting .223 with a .264 OBP and .308 slugging percentage before the All-Star break, Desmond hit .289 with a .338 OBP and .417 slugging percentage down the stretch. He really thrived when manager Davey Johnson made him the leadoff hitter, which is a position he is expected to keep heading into the spring. The second trend is that Desmond's defense improved as the season progressed. He committed seven errors in his first 20 games and just 16 over his final 134.
Analysis: A lot of folks were excited about Desmond's 2011 outlook after he played well in his first two MLB stints in 2009 and 2010. Unfortunately, Desmond took a step back last year and will plummet down Fantasy draft boards because of it. Clearly, there is potential with Desmond. But don't reach for him on Draft Day. Let him fall to the late rounds in mixed leagues and hope that you grab a bounce-back candidate.

Phil Hughes
Hughes appears ready to compete
Phil Hughes, SP, NYY
11:26 AM
News: Newsday reports Yankees SP Phil Hughes, who looks noticeably slimmer and more muscular, said he weighs about 240 pounds. He added that in the offseason he changed his "body composition."
Analysis: The early word from Yankees camp is that Hughes is in shape and ready to compete for a spot in the rotation. Although, he is on the outside looking in if the Yankees don't trade A.J. Burnett. Though, if Hughes proves to be more valuable in the rotation than the bullpen, then the Yankees might have to reconsider his role in 2012. Let's see how Hughes does this spring training before making a final evaluation about his 2012 outlook, but clearly him being in shape is a good start. Hughes could be a viable Fantasy option again if he returns to the 18-8 pitcher he was in 2010.

Jon Garland
Garland gets shot with Indians
Jon Garland, SP, LAD
10:37 AM
News: The Indians signed SP Jon Garland to a minor-league deal on Monday. Garland, who last pitched for the Dodgers, was limited to only nine starts last season before having arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder in June.
Analysis: Garland will most likely compete with Kevin Slowey for the final spot in the Indians rotation, but he's a hittable pitcher who now may be working with less than his best stuff coming off shoulder surgery. Even if he's able to win a rotation spot, he won't be worth drafting outside of deeper AL-only leagues.

A.J. Burnett
Yanks, Pirates still talking Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
2/12/2012
News: The New York Daily News reports the Yankees and Pirates continued to talk Sunday about completing a trade for A.J. Burnett, but a baseball source said the sides are still "a good ways away" from agreeing on the final terms. The source added the Pirates are willing to pay $10 million of the remaining $33 million Burnett is owed over the next two seasons, but Pittsburgh has offered "two borderline prospects" in return. The Yankees could be willing to pay more of Burnett's remaining contract if they receive a top-tier prospect from Pittsburgh. A person familiar with the Yankees' thinking believes there is enough common ground that a deal could be completed in the coming days. However, ESPN.com reports their source said the Yankees aren't desperate to make a trade and the team would go to spring training with Burnett if a deal isn't completed.
Analysis: Leaving the Yankees usually has a negative impact on a player's Fantasy value, but in Burnett's case it might be the opposite, especially if he moves to the NL. He has struggled to handle the pressure of pitching in New York and a fresh start could be what he needs. Burnett had some of his best years in the majors pitching in the NL. Still, Burnett would be nothing more than a risky late-round Fantasy pick in mixed leagues.

Josh Johnson
JJ continues to feel no discomfort
Josh Johnson, SP, MIA
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Marlins SP Josh Johnson arrived to the team's spring training complex in Jupiter, Fla., on Feb. 9, more than a week ahead of the Marlins reporting date for pitchers and catchers. Johnson, who has been throwing off a mound near his home in Las Vegas, threw his first bullpen session of the year in Florida on Feb. 10. He felt no discomfort and expects to be ready for the first workouts on Feb. 22. He made only nine starts last year because of shoulder issues.
Analysis: Any encouraging news regarding JJ is welcomed. But Fantasy owners do have to be aware of the risk of drafting him. Of course his potential makes it worth it, but JJ has made it past 30 starts just once in his career. Look to Johnson as more of a No. 2 Fantasy SP on Draft Day, but clearly he has the potential to be your ace if he can stay healthy.

Hunter Pence
Pence likely to hit cleanup
Hunter Pence, RF, PHI
2/12/2012
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports Phillies manager Charlie Manuel has to find a cleanup hitter with Ryan Howard expected to miss the beginning of the season recovering from an Achilles injury, and he said his choice going into spring training is Hunter Pence.
Analysis: Pence either hit right in front of or right behind Howard after his acquisition from Houston last season and thrived in the Phillies lineup. He will miss Howard's lineup protection, but might only have to play a month without Howard. In the meantime, Pence should get plenty of RBI chances batting cleanup, and he will still have plenty of lineup protection without Howard. Look to Pence in the early rounds of Fantasy drafts.

Jason Vargas
Vargas expected to pitch in A's series
Jason Vargas, SP, SEA
2/12/2012
News: Mariners manager Eric Wedge hinted Sunday that ace Felix Hernandez and Jason Vargas are the leading candidates to start the team's first two games against the A's in Japan. "That's one of the reasons we're here early, to make sure we get Felix ready and we're probably looking at Vargas right now in regard to the first couple games," Wedge said, as reported by MLB.com. "It is a little odd, but that's OK. That's part of it. We're professionals here and we have to get multiple starters prepared for the regular season. It's not just about those two guys, it's about everybody else as well. We've got a lot of starting pitchers here in camp and we'll see how it plays out. I'm looking forward to the competition."
Analysis: Believe it or not, but Vargas is arguably the M's second-best pitcher heading into spring training. He has been a steady part of the M's rotation the last two seasons. He is 19-25 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 63 starts since the beginning of the 2010 campaign. However, he is not a dominant pitcher and has weak strikeout totals, so Vargas is nothing more than a low-end Fantasy SP on Draft Day.

 
 
 
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