By the Numbers: Separating fact from fiction
By Al Melchior | Special to CBSSports.com Follow AlFollow CBS Fantasy Baseball
This is the first installment of a new weekly report. Each week’s report will include three lists for batters and pitchers each: Luckiest, Unluckiest and Not Flukes. The players in the Luckiest lists are among those who have the most favorable H/BIP rates. The Unluckiest lists include players with very unfavorable H/BIP rates. Finally, the Not Flukes lists features players with normal H/BIP rates. For pitchers, that would mean including players with rates at or near 30%. On the hitters list, you will find players who are performing near their career norms.
Players on the Luckiest lists will probably find their H/BIP rates regressing to more normal rates as they accumulate more playing time. Expect hitters' RC/27 numbers and Fantasy stats to decline, bearing in mind that all of the players on this list are currently far above the 5.0-5.5 RC/27 range that is typical for a middle-of-the-road major league starter. The ERCs for the pitchers on the Luckiest list tell us that these hurlers' ERAs should be higher than they actually are.
The Unluckiest lists include players who should rebound with more playing time. This week, we have a shortened list for pitchers, because most of the pitchers with high H/BIP rates also happened to pitch very poorly. C.C. Sabathia might be getting the short end of the stick with his 43% H/BIP, but a 13.50 ERA isn't really a fluke when you give up 14 walks and five homers in 18 innings.
The Not Flukes lists include players who have performed either very well or very poorly due to the skills they have shown to date. It is hard not to call the performances of Hunter Pence or Eric Hinske fluky, because they are so out of character. However, I am calling them "Not Flukes" in the sense that their display of skill (or lack thereof) accounts for their performance, as aberrant as it may be. A wildly atypical H/BIP rate has little or nothing to do with their current Fantasy stats.
All statistics are for season-to-date performances through Saturday, April 19.
| 'Lucky' Hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | 'Lucky' Pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
| Chris Iannetta | 53% | 8.7 | Erik Bedard | 17% | 5.25 |
| Howie Kendrick | 51% | 12.4 | Daniel Cabrera | 24% | 5.79 |
| Luke Scott | 47% | 11.6 | Brett Myers | 24% | 4.16 |
| Matt Tolbert | 47% | 7.9 | Fausto Carmona | 25% | 3.85 |
| Ryan Ludwick | 46% | 16.7 | Ricky Nolasco | 26% | 6.68 |
| Aaron Rowand | 46% | 6.7 | Adam Loewen | 26% | 7.01 |
| Chone Figgins | 46% | 9.2 | Zack Greinke | 26% | 2.66 |
| Rafael Furcal | 46% | 15.3 | Chris R. Young | 27% | 4.95 |
| Justin Upton | 44% | 12.6 | Jake Westbrook | 27% | 3.35 |
| B.J. Upton | 43% | 8.4 | Wandy Rodriguez | 28% | 2.91 |
| 'Unlucky' Hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | 'Unlucky' Pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
| Jason Giambi | 9% | 2.9 | Manny Parra | 36% | 4.84 |
| Corey Patterson | 14% | 4.0 | Dave Bush | 35% | 5.36 |
| David Ortiz | 15% | 1.1 | Miguel Batista | 34% | 5.93 |
| Maicer Izturis | 15% | 0.6 | Clay Buchholz | 33% | 5.58 |
| Gabe Gross | 15% | 1.7 | Javier Vazquez | 33% | 2.57 |
| Placido Polanco | 16% | 1.8 | |||
| Mike Lamb | 17% | 1.5 | |||
| Paul Konerko | 17% | 4.0 | |||
| Jason Michaels | 17% | 1.3 | |||
| Robinson Cano | 17% | 1.4 |
| 'Not Fluke' Hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | 'Not Fluke' Pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
| Darin Erstad | 31% | 1.6 | Adam Wainwright | 29% | 2.36 |
| Julio Lugo | 32% | 2.1 | Felix Hernandez | 29% | 2.91 |
| Jim Edmonds | 29% | 2.2 | Roy Halladay | 29% | 3.38 |
| Hunter Pence | 28% | 2.2 | Jered Weaver | 29% | 3.57 |
| Matt Treanor | 29% | 2.5 | Joe Blanton | 32% | 3.93 |
| Jason Bay | 32% | 8.4 | Matt Chico | 30% | 4.85 |
| Joe Crede | 29% | 8.5 | Kenny Rogers | 30% | 5.37 |
| Josh Willingham | 31% | 8.9 | Jeremy Guthrie | 29% | 5.40 |
| Eric Hinske | 30% | 10.1 | Jeff Francis | 29% | 6.32 |
| Chase Utley | 31% | 10.7 | Mike Mussina | 29% | 6.38 |
| |
| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
