Sliders: Going out on a limb

Some players so personify greatness that artists write odes and ballads to chronicle their feats.

Rafael Furcal was never one of those players ... until now.

Hey, I wouldn't do it if I didn't have to. I'm aware of the repercussions. I'm aware that if he falls anywhere short of my expectations after the amount of words I'm about to dedicate to him, I'll never recover. I'll have climbed so far out on a limb so high that when it breaks, I'm doomed.

I'll become a laughingstock -- an outcast, even. When you look me in the eye, I'll have to look away, having so solidified my place as the inferior being.

So it's a scary step I take, yes, but one I see no way around: I have to examine if Furcal might deserve MVP consideration by season's end.

Don't say I didn't warn you.

Sliders

These guys' recent performances signify more than a hot or cold streak. Their Fantasy appeal has actually "slid" either up or down.

Rafael Furcal, SS, Dodgers

I have a working theory. I'm calling it the Jimmy Rollins Theory. I touched on it last week with Derrek Lee and Lance Berkman, but now I'm going to wrap my hands around it and squeeze. And my latest variable: none other than Mr. Furcal.

Let me throw a few numbers at you: .203, .198, .228, .245. Those are Furcal's batting averages every April dating back to 2004.

Let me throw a few other numbers at you: .243, .219, .337, .358. Those are Furcal's slugging percentages during those same Aprils.

Considering he has career marks of .286 and .411, I think we can agree he doesn't normally give a true representation of his abilities in April. For whatever reason, some players just need a jumpstart. They don't have their bats working right out of the gate, so they coast for the first couple of months. Then one day, they find their jumpstart and take off, operating at their full capacity, putting up their "true" numbers the rest of the way.

But no matter how well they play over those final four months, they can't erase those first two. The damage is done, and their final numbers make them appear less than the players they actually are.

So then, what if one of those slow starters finds his jumpstart sooner, like at the beginning of April? What if he plays up to his abilities for six months of the season instead of four? When that happens, he goes from being a good player to being one of the best in the league because he's operating at 133 percent capacity (someone will correct me on that stat, I know). It worked for notorious slow starter Rollins last year, and it worked for Lee in 2005, when he hit .335 with 46 home runs. Shoot, you could even say it worked for Alex Rodriguez last year, considering he hit .355 with 14 home runs in April.

And now, Furcal -- widely considered a good player before an ankle injury caused him to slump last year -- is batting .391 and slugging .652 in April (through Sunday). He's already had his jumpstart that normally doesn't come until June. Could an MVP-type season follow? For Furcal and Lee, performing again like he did in early 2005, it's not as far-fetched as you might think.

I'm not suggesting Furcal can maintain his current pace, because even it goes beyond his typical numbers following his jumpstart, but don't expect him to slow down enough to drag his numbers back to their career norms. I wouldn't at all consider him a sell-high candidate.

Conor Jackson, 1B, Diamondbacks

Jackson started off the year well enough. He kept his average above .300, had a couple of multi-hit games -- nothing ridiculously impressive.

And then came Fantasy Week 3, when he took off like model rocket in the school parking lot.

Some of these stats are just plain stupid: .480 average (12-for-25), three home runs, 10 RBI, 10 runs, even a stolen base. And then he had that one game against the Padres where, needing a double for the cycle, he opted for a second triple on a ball hit into the gap, turning his back on that silly cycle as he rounded the second-base bag.

That's right: He was literally too good for the cycle.

Sure, one good week does not a good player make, but anyone who's given up on Jackson as a big-time prospect needs to realize he still hasn't turned 26. He batted .354 in his final minor-league season (2005) and began to show power in the second half last year, hitting 10 home runs with a .555 slugging percentage.

So accounting for those stats and his hot start this year, I'm projecting Jackson (rather modestly, actually) for a .320 average and 25 home runs and calling him a must-start in all Fantasy formats.

Jeremy Bonderman, SP, Tigers

I realize Bonderman has had his rough stretches in the past, but this one goes beyond his current ERA of 4.37. He's walking everyone and striking out no one.

No joke -- he actually has more walks (14) than strikeouts (10). You know the last time he did that for a whole month? How about never?

And we're talking about a guy with a 19-loss season.

I don't know how much his struggles now have to do with the pinched cartilage in his right elbow that marred his 2007 season, but I'd guess the two are at least loosely related. I mean, Bonderman was a pitcher on the rise, his strikeouts increasing and WHIP and ERA decreasing every year. Now, I can't even trust him to start for my AL-only team.

I wouldn't be surprised if he's nothing more than waiver fodder by season's end.

Cliff Lee, SP, Indians

Cliff Lee had to fight for a rotation spot this spring, but these days he's a Fantasy ace. (US Presswire)

But if Bonderman needs any inspiration for a quick road to redemption, he need look no further than fellow AL Central hurler Cliff Lee, who looks more like Steve Carlton these days than, well, Cliff Lee.

Eight innings with eight strikeouts and two hits allowed is impressive enough once, but to do it twice -- in back-to-back starts, no less -- that's going to turn a few heads.

And Lee has, considering his ownership percentage has jumped from 21 at the beginning of the season to 90 now. Granted, he did have that 18-5 season back in 2005 -- a full two years before he slumped to a 6.30 ERA and 1.52 WHIP -- but even then, he wasn't striking out 7.9 batters per nine innings.

I have a feeling his strikeouts will dip, and he obviously can't maintain that 0.44 WHIP, but based on the way he's pitching now, I have no reason to think Lee won't remain mixed-league viable all season.

Placido Polanco, 2B, Tigers

No, he won't hit .148 all season. I can promise you that.

But I can't promise he'll hit .300, and neither can he. Because as much as his .341 average impressed us all last season, we have to remember he's hit .300 only three times as an everyday player, and one of those times came way back in 2001. Just two seasons ago, in 2006, he hit only .295 with an OPS of .693.

So if you don't know he'll hit .300 but you do know he won't provide 10 home runs or 10 stolen bases, just what makes him so valuable in Fantasy? Why do you cling to him like a one-eyed teddy bear?

Let him go. I mean, maybe he has some appeal as a middle infielder in Rotisserie leagues, but not any more than, say, Mark Ellis.

Hanging Sliders

These guys look like sliders, but not so fast! Their recent performances might cause you to misinterpret their Fantasy appeal.

Andy Pettitte, SP, Yankees

If you look at Pettitte's line right now, you'll see a 3-1 record, a 2.45 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Looks good, right? You're probably thinking a 15-game winner last year who has those stats this year is someone you can trust at the top of your Fantasy rotation.

Wrong!

First of all, don't even get me started on those 15 wins last year. They came with a 1.43 WHIP and 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings, so you can hardly trust Pettitte to duplicate them this year. And most Fantasy owners agreed, drafting Pettitte behind Joe Blanton and Ian Snell even in Head-to-Head leagues, where wins usually mean more.

As for his numbers this year, Pettitte has had the good fortune of facing some weak competition out of the gate. His last start was great -- seven shutout innings, four hits, five strikeouts -- but it came against the Orioles, a team with a potentially historical dearth of talent. His second-best start -- 6 2/3 innings, one run, five hits, one strikeout -- came against the poor-hitting Royals.

How's this for his two other starts: a 4.50 ERA, 1.83 WHIP and six strikeouts per nine innings. And both came against the Rays -- an improving club, for sure, but not exactly a league juggernaut.

Yeah, I'm calling Pettitte a back-of-the-rotation type for Fantasy purposes.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Red Sox

OK, so maybe Pettitte isn't a Fantasy ace this year, but what about Dice-K? He has a 4-0 record, a respectable 1.22 WHIP and -- you know I'll love this one -- 28 strikeouts in 28 2/3 innings.

But I can't do it. I can't elevate him just yet. He still looks like that same guy who finished with a somewhat disappointing 4.41 ERA last year. Actually, he looks a little worse.

Because that guy managed to throw 204 1/3 innings last year. This one? Not a chance. He can't even go seven in a game because he's throwing too many pitches out of the strike zone. He now has 17 walks this season, putting him on pace for well over 100, and few people other than Carlos Zambrano can pitch successfully while walking so many batters.

But I didn't include Matsuzaka in the "Sliders" portion of this column because his Fantasy appeal remains the same. He's still a No. 2 or 3 Fantasy pitcher like he was when the season began because of his ability to win games, record strikeouts and limit runs. Just don't start thinking of him as a Fantasy ace.

Troy Glaus, 3B, Cardinals

Glaus' Fantasy owners are getting antsy. They're ready to cut ties with the slugging third baseman who hasn't slugged anything yet, blaming his power outage on -- I don't know -- injury or something.

Which I guess I could understand if Glaus hurt his shoulder last year, but he missed nearly 200 at-bats with foot problems -- nothing that should cut down on his swing.

I'm not saying Glaus is a lock for 40 home runs or 100 RBI or anything else that might land him on the All-Star team, but if you need power numbers from your corner infielder, he'll give them to you. Provided he stays healthy, the home runs will come.

Change-up

Every week, I make terrible errors in judgment. It happens to us all, and if it didn't, Fantasy wouldn't be a game worth playing. Fortunately, I permit myself the opportunity to correct one of my mistakes by throwing a change-up.

Brian Bannister, SP, Royals

I didn't like Bannister in the first place. He didn't strike out enough batters, and I felt at some point, all those batted balls had to start missing fielders. But when he allowed a total of 10 hits in his first 21 innings, I felt I couldn't ignore the numbers any longer. I had to sing a different tune.

Five innings, nine hits and five earned runs later, all is right in the world.

I feel like I can see again, like I can trust the Fantasy advice I'm spinning and not wonder if I'm groping around in a Royal blue haze.

Because Bannister is no emerging Fantasy ace. He's a useful pitcher, but one you'll want to slot at the back of your Fantasy rotation in mixed leagues. Think Jon Garland.

If it takes a man to admit he was wrong, it takes a bigger man to admit he was wrong about being wrong.

And when Bannister throws a two-hit shutout next week and I have to admit I was wrong about being wrong about being wrong -- man, I'll be like a giant.

You can e-mail Scott your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Sliders in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.We'll answer as many as we can.