You think Edwin Jackson got overrated after a few good starts? You don't know overrated until you meet Edwin's older-brother-in-overratedness, Conor. Grisly details are to follow.
Guys in demand
Conor Jackson, 1B, Arizona
Week 4 Ownership: 63 percent
Week 5 Ownership: 90 percent
Rank in NL-only Most Added: 3rd
The Skinny: Sure, Conor and Edwin aren't really brothers, but I'm starting to wonder if he and Sean Casey are somehow related. Conor's performance to date is eerily reminiscent of the young Mayor. Their skill sets at the same ages are very similar, though Casey hit for more power. Yes, Casey used to hit homers. With Jackson, you get a selective, contact-hitting first baseman who is good for a .290-.300 average and maybe 20 dingers.
So if Jackson is a poor man's Casey, what's all the fuss about? Jackson solidified his status as a top prospect with a .354 average at Triple-A Tucson in 2005. A slow first baseman with a sub-.200 Isolated Power doesn't hit .354 without a lot of help from H/BIP. Need more proof he won't hit enough? In that same '05 season, Jackson hit just 11 home runs in 333 ABs. That was in the Pacific Coast League, a circuit that doesn't exactly put the kabbash on power numbers. I am not buying into Jackson's hot start or his rep as an emerging Fantasy stud. If you picked him up, his numbers won't kill you, but you are probably better off dealing him to another owner. It shouldn't be too hard to find someone who will overpay.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2005 | Tucson (Triple-A) | 17% | 10% | 0.199 | 38% | N/A |
| 2006 | Arizona | 10% | 15% | 0.151 | 32% | 5.64 |
| 2007 | Arizona | 11% | 12% | 0.183 | 29% | 6.27 |
Todd Wellemeyer, SP, St. Louis
Week 4 Ownership: 49 percent
Week 5 Ownership: 76 percent
Rank in NL-only Most Added: 4th
The Skinny: When the Cardinals first put Wellemeyer in the rotation last year, I remember thinking "What are they doing?". At that point, he had already made over 100 appearances in the bigs, all in relief, and had never been very good. Tony LaRussa, mad genius that he is, must have known something, because he performed much better in his 11 starts last year than his major league record would have suggested. Maybe LaRussa knew his trends from the minors, because those stats provided more reason for optimism.
Wellemeyer has picked up where he left off, and then some. His 3.77 ERA and 1.13 WHIP are supported by an outstanding 31-to-10 K/BB ratio in 31 innings. He is getting some help from H/BIP (26%), so he needs to get his HR/9 rate (1.74) down in order to maintain his Fantasy stats. This should happen as he pitches more innings. Wellemeyer is a good buy for NL-only leagues and he still available for free in 24% of those leagues.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | H/BIP | ERC |
| 2005 | Iowa (Triple-A) | 4.2 | 8.0 | 0.3 | N/A | N/A |
| 2006 | Florida/Kansas City | 5.7 | 6.2 | 0.7 | 28% | 4.28 |
| 2007 | Kansas City/St. Louis | 4.5 | 6.8 | 1.3 | 28% | 4.68 |
Others drawing interest
| Rank | Player | Week 4 ownership | Week 5 ownership | Percentage change |
| 1 | Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee | 57% | 87% | 30% |
| 2 | Mark DeRosa, 2B, Chicago Cubs | 44% | 73% | 29% |
| 5 | Randy Wolf, SP, San Diego | 50% | 74% | 24% |
The guys dropping like flies
Tom Glavine, SP, Atlanta
Week 4 Ownership: 53 percent
Week 5 Ownership: 34 percent
Rank in NL-only Most Dropped: 4th
The Skinny: This could be a great story. He was a giant in the '90s, but the spotlight in recent years has drifted to younger, fresher faces. He returns to the Peachtree State trying to recapture his previous glory. Now in his 40s, he makes a remarkable comeback with a strong performance that surprises everyone. Oh wait, that's Michael Stipe of R.E.M. Well, to Glavine's credit, he does have a 2.38 ERA and he comes off the DL in Week 5. He is stingy enough with the long ball to keep his ERA under 4.50, but at best, he's the last pitcher on your roster in an NL-only league.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | H/BIP | ERC |
| 2005 | New York Mets | 2.6 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 31% | 3.79 |
| 2006 | New York Mets | 2.8 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 30% | 4.01 |
| 2007 | New York Mets | 2.9 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 29% | 4.53 |
Others wearing roster repellant
| Glossary |
Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James
Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James
Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30%
Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth
Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks)
Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats
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Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
