Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
2011 Draft Prep Guide
Fantasy Football Today
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Draft Analyzer
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Red Zone Stats
Teams
Schedules
Scores
Standings
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Premium
Office Pool Manager
Playoff Challenge
2011 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Teams
Schedules
Weekly Planner
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Premium
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Premium
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Premium
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 

Al Melchior

By the Numbers: A popular young mayor

By | Special to CBSSports.com


You think Edwin Jackson got overrated after a few good starts? You don't know overrated until you meet Edwin's older-brother-in-overratedness, Conor. Grisly details are to follow.

Guys in demand

Conor Jackson, 1B, Arizona
Week 4 Ownership:
63 percent
Week 5 Ownership: 90 percent
Rank in NL-only Most Added: 3rd
The Skinny: Sure, Conor and Edwin aren't really brothers, but I'm starting to wonder if he and Sean Casey are somehow related. Conor's performance to date is eerily reminiscent of the young Mayor. Their skill sets at the same ages are very similar, though Casey hit for more power. Yes, Casey used to hit homers. With Jackson, you get a selective, contact-hitting first baseman who is good for a .290-.300 average and maybe 20 dingers.

So if Jackson is a poor man's Casey, what's all the fuss about? Jackson solidified his status as a top prospect with a .354 average at Triple-A Tucson in 2005. A slow first baseman with a sub-.200 Isolated Power doesn't hit .354 without a lot of help from H/BIP. Need more proof he won't hit enough? In that same '05 season, Jackson hit just 11 home runs in 333 ABs. That was in the Pacific Coast League, a circuit that doesn't exactly put the kabbash on power numbers. I am not buying into Jackson's hot start or his rep as an emerging Fantasy stud. If you picked him up, his numbers won't kill you, but you are probably better off dealing him to another owner. It shouldn't be too hard to find someone who will overpay.

Year Team Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP RC/27
2005 Tucson (Triple-A) 17% 10% 0.199 38% N/A
2006 Arizona 10% 15% 0.151 32% 5.64
2007 Arizona 11% 12% 0.183 29% 6.27

Todd Wellemeyer, SP, St. Louis
Week 4 Ownership:
49 percent
Week 5 Ownership: 76 percent
Rank in NL-only Most Added: 4th
The Skinny: When the Cardinals first put Wellemeyer in the rotation last year, I remember thinking "What are they doing?". At that point, he had already made over 100 appearances in the bigs, all in relief, and had never been very good. Tony LaRussa, mad genius that he is, must have known something, because he performed much better in his 11 starts last year than his major league record would have suggested. Maybe LaRussa knew his trends from the minors, because those stats provided more reason for optimism.

Wellemeyer has picked up where he left off, and then some. His 3.77 ERA and 1.13 WHIP are supported by an outstanding 31-to-10 K/BB ratio in 31 innings. He is getting some help from H/BIP (26%), so he needs to get his HR/9 rate (1.74) down in order to maintain his Fantasy stats. This should happen as he pitches more innings. Wellemeyer is a good buy for NL-only leagues and he still available for free in 24% of those leagues.

Year Team BB/9 K/9 HR/9 H/BIP ERC
2005 Iowa (Triple-A) 4.2 8.0 0.3 N/A N/A
2006 Florida/Kansas City 5.7 6.2 0.7 28% 4.28
2007 Kansas City/St. Louis 4.5 6.8 1.3 28% 4.68

Others drawing interest

Rank Player Week 4 ownership Week 5 ownership Percentage change
1 Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee 57% 87% 30%
2 Mark DeRosa, 2B, Chicago Cubs 44% 73% 29%
5 Randy Wolf, SP, San Diego 50% 74% 24%

The guys dropping like flies

Tom Glavine, SP, Atlanta
Week 4 Ownership:
53 percent
Week 5 Ownership: 34 percent
Rank in NL-only Most Dropped: 4th
The Skinny: This could be a great story. He was a giant in the '90s, but the spotlight in recent years has drifted to younger, fresher faces. He returns to the Peachtree State trying to recapture his previous glory. Now in his 40s, he makes a remarkable comeback with a strong performance that surprises everyone. Oh wait, that's Michael Stipe of R.E.M. Well, to Glavine's credit, he does have a 2.38 ERA and he comes off the DL in Week 5. He is stingy enough with the long ball to keep his ERA under 4.50, but at best, he's the last pitcher on your roster in an NL-only league.

Year Team BB/9 K/9 HR/9 H/BIP ERC
2005 New York Mets 2.6 4.5 0.5 31% 3.79
2006 New York Mets 2.8 6.0 1.0 30% 4.01
2007 New York Mets 2.9 4.0 1.0 29% 4.53

Others wearing roster repellant

Rank Player Week 4 ownership Week 5 ownership Percentage change
1 Alfonso Soriano, OF, Chicago Cubs 97% 63% - 34%
2 Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia 99% 71% - 28%
3 Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Houston 57% 35% - 22%
5 Peter Moylan, RP, Atlanta 23% 5% - 18%

Glossary
Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James
Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James
Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30%
Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth
Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks)
Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.

 
 
 
Player News
Coco Crisp
Crisp moving over for Cespedes?
Coco Crisp, CF, OAK
10:13 AM
News: Sources have told FOXSports.com that the Athletics intend to start newly signed Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes in center field right away, which would move Coco Crisp over to left field and Seth Smith to DH. Cespedes is already 26 and has faced upper-level competition in Cuba, but some scouts think he could use some time in the minors to adjust to the U.S. game.
Analysis: None of these reports are coming directly from the Athletics, so you should consider them nothing more than speculation at this point. Still, speculation is better than nothing, and if Cespedes is in fact going to be on the opening day roster, then he might even be worth drafting in the middle rounds, given his upside. As for Crisp, moving to left field wouldn't have any real impact on his Fantasy value. The Athletics outfield is even more crowded with the Cespedes signing, but the team seems to consider Crisp a mainstay at the top of the lineup. Given his base-stealing ability and doubles pop, he's a worthy fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Ryan Braun
Braun will know fate by Feb. 24
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
10:03 AM
News: Monday came and went without a ruling on Brewers OF Ryan Braun's pending 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It was the 25th day since the three-man panel heard Braun's appeal. According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the panel was supposed to “make all reasonable efforts” to deliver a verdict within that period of time, but chairman Shyam Das was given an extension. A decision is expected before Braun reports to spring training on Feb. 24, but the exact date is unknown since the process is intended to be confidential.
Analysis: The panel's need for a lengthy deliberation is theoretically a good sign, but then again, since the process is usually confidential, we don't know how common such extensions are. Braun's case is said to be unique, but it might not make much of a difference to the panel. If you're drafting now, you should do so with the expectation that Braun will miss the first 50 games of the season, which could allow him to slip to the middle rounds in standard mixed leagues. If the appeal is upheld, though, he's suddenly back to being a first-rounder in Fantasy.

Josh Johnson
JJ: 'I feel great. No problems'
Josh Johnson, SP, MIA
2/13/2012
News: The Associated Press reports Marlins president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest said the team should be fully healthy heading into spring training. That includes ace Josh Johnson, who has been throwing off a mound after making only nine starts in 2011 because of right shoulder inflammation. "I feel great," Johnson said. "No problems. I haven't really been sore yet, and I've been letting it go." The Sports Xchange reported over the weekend that Johnson arrived to the team's spring training complex in Jupiter, Fla., on Feb. 9 and threw his first bullpen session of the year in Florida on Feb. 10.
Analysis: The fact we hear JJ talking about his promising progress is very encouraging. Now, he just has to avoid setbacks and stay healthy for an entire season. Fantasy owners do have to be aware of the risk of drafting him. Of course his potential makes it worth it, but JJ has made it past 30 starts just once in his career. Look to Johnson as more of a No. 2 Fantasy SP on Draft Day, but clearly he has the potential to be your ace if he can stay healthy.

Ike Davis
Davis 'good to go' as camp nears
Ike Davis, 1B, NYM
2/13/2012
News: The New York Post reports Mets 1B Ike Davis said he is "good to go" as he arrived to spring training on Monday. Davis who missed most of last season with an ankle injury said he no longer thinks about his injury. He elected not to have surgery and chose to rehab the injury instead. “It’s great to know I’m training for a season rather than training to see if I can get back on the field or have to have surgery,” Davis said. “I’ve been fine for a while now, so it’s what I expected. But it’s good to finally hit on the field and get this under my belt.” Davis might see more at-bats this spring as he tries to make up for lost time. “I have more of a drive and a want this year,” Davis said. “I always had it, but I never really saw the other side, when the game isn’t there. I know to take it slow. I have to get back into the rhythm of playing, but I’ve got plenty of time. It’s going to come back.”
Analysis: We really hope Davis is past his ankle problems like he says he is because he is one of the Mets' top offensive players when active. As productive as he was before the injury last year, Davis is a potential bargain with a middle-to-late-round pick and will only move up the draft boards with a strong spring. Continue to track his progress.

Roy Oswalt
Oswalt waiting to sign with Texas?
Roy Oswalt, SP, PHI
2/13/2012
News: The Cincinnati Enquirer reports Reds GM Walt Jocketty said he hasn't had contact with Roy Oswalt's agents in the last week, and Jocketty offered up his own opinion on the Oswalt sweepstakes. “I think he’s waiting for Texas to clear money,” Jocketty said.
Analysis: It's interesting to hear Jocketty say Oswalt wants to sign with Texas. At least it's a legit reason why the veteran right-hander hasn't signed with a team yet, despite being linked to the Reds and Cardinals. Oswalt is likely going to sign somewhere before the start of the 2012 season and should be in a rotation. Consider Oswalt more of a mid-to-late-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day. Don't forget about his chronic back problems.

Johan Santana
Santana looks 'great' playing catch
Johan Santana, SP, NYM
2/13/2012
News: The Wall Street Journal reports Mets SP Johan Santana (shoulder) played catch from 175 feet Monday. Manager Terry Collins said Santana looked "great" and he hopes the left-hander will throw off a mound by the end of the week. “I think I’ll be on the mound Thursday or Friday and we’ll see where we’re at,” Santana told the New York Post. “But I’m making progress and finally getting into a routine that will take me all the way to spring training and the regular season.” Santana would like to be ready by opening day, but he doesn't consider it a critical date. “Time will tell if I get there,” Santana said. “We’ll see once I compete. I have to get some competition and see how my arm and whole body reacts to it. When I get on the mound soon, I should be fine when spring training starts. I’m worried more about my mechanics and delivery more than anything. That’s the point I’m at. My biggest concern will always be my health, but it’s just a matter of time. I just want to compete.”
Analysis: Collins' assessment of Santana sounds like cautious optimism. After all it was just catch. Santana has bigger hurdles to clear in hopes of pitching for the first time since the 2010 season. Santana is coming off a serious shoulder injury and who knows if he can return to the dominant arm he once was. Fantasy owners should bear in mind that Chien-Ming Wang, who underwent the same procedure, needed two years to make it back to the majors, so Santana could wind up providing far fewer than 25 starts -- which is the Mets' goal for the lefty this season. Because of the playing time risk, he is a late-round option in mixed leagues at best.

Seth Smith
Cespedes to bump Smith?
Seth Smith, RF, OAK
2/13/2012
News: Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes and the Oakland Athletics have agreed to a $36 million, four-year contract. Agent Adam Katz confirmed Monday the sides had reached agreement, with details still to be finalized. Cespedes' arrival means the A's could eventually bump Seth Smith to designated hitter.
Analysis: We will have to wait and see what happens when Cespedes finally arrives at A's camp, but the speculation is that the A's outfield alignment will eventually be Josh Reddick in right field, Coco Crisp in center field and Cespedes in left, which is where Smith is currently penciled in as the starter. But the A's could use a rotation at DH, which would still allow Smith to see regular at-bats, if Cespedes doesn't have to begin the year in the minors, which remains an option as well. Smith struggles against left-handed pitchers, so he might still be in a platoon situation like he was with the Rockies. Smith remains more of a late-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Mike Napoli
Napoli's ankle still an issue
Mike Napoli, C, TEX
2/13/2012
News: ESPN.com reports Rangers catcher Mike Napoli said his injured left ankle is progressing, but he is still not 100 percent. Napoli turned his ankle in the World Series against the Cardinals last year. "I think I’m close," Napoli said. "I’m not really going to know until I get into the wear and tear of spring training and catching all the time. But I've been feeling good and getting better day by day." Napoli said he has been running on the ankle, and he is also hitting and throwing without pain. However, he is still concerned about how it will hold up with the constant squatting and baseball activity. "But I'm trying not to do that all the time so I'm not depending on that," Napoli said. "I'm working on getting my little muscles stronger."
Analysis: The Dallas Morning News reports GM Jon Daniels said exams by team physician Keith Meister said Napoli's ankle shows no structural damage, but Napoli is still experiencing soreness. "The fact he's still feeling it a few months later speaks to what he went through to play the rest of Game 6 and go back out for Game 7," Daniels said. "It was about as bad as it looked to the rest of us." You have to wonder if Napoli can't shake this injury if it will play into how much time he gets behind the plate. Nonetheless, if Napoli catches less that just means he will likely see more PT at DH and first base. The Rangers aren't going to take his bat out of the lineup. Napoli remains a top 5 Fantasy catcher on Draft Day.

Bobby Abreu
Abreu to have to earn PT
Bobby Abreu, LF, LAA
12:44 AM
News: According to the Los Angeles Times, Angels general manager Jerry Dipoto told OF Bobby Abreu during a phone call on Monday that the veteran will be given every opportunity to earn playing time during the spring. With the offseason addition of Albert Pujols, Mark Trumbo and Kendrys Morales will vie with Abreu for at-bats at the DH spot in 2012. Dipoto also added that he does not plan on trading the 37-year-old. “Bobby is an Angel,” Dipoto said. “Right now, he fits on our 25-man roster, in our clubhouse, on our team. Where he is in eight weeks is predicated on how he’s playing and everyone’s health. We have some unknowns with the health of Kendrys and the progress of Mark, but we know Bobby is healthy. As I told him, if he swings the bat like he can, we’re going to find a way to play him.”
Analysis: Abreu played in just 28 games in the outfield last season so seeing time at DH is really the only way he is going to play consistently in 2012. Things don't look good for him at this point but if Morales is still unable to return from his broken ankle, he could end up platooning with Trumbo. Trumbo is also a candidate to be traded so keep an eye on the situation going forward. Abreu batted .253 with eight homers, 60 RBI and 21 stolen bases last season and would be a worthwhile pick in deeper mixed leagues if he sees everyday at-bats for the Angels.

Hong-Chih Kuo
M's to be careful with Kuo
Hong-Chih Kuo, P, SEA
2/13/2012
News: MLB.com reports Mariners RP Hong-Chih Kuo threw his first bullpen session of the spring on Sunday, but the team will proceed with caution with Kuo, who is coming off October elbow surgery. "We've got to keep an eye on him and work to keep him healthy and available for us," manager Eric Wedge said. "He was dominant a couple years ago. He's had some injuries in the past, but he feels good now. It's a great opportunity for him as well as so many others. But when you look at his upside and what he's capable of doing when he's healthy, we're hoping we can keep him there."
Analysis: Kuo definitely showed promise during his tenure with the Dodgers from 2005-11. However, he had a rocky career that was filled with arm injuries and inconsistencies. He won't close for Seattle, but the Mariners hope he can be a setup man for closer Brandon League. Kuo remains just a low-end Fantasy RP in leagues that use middle relievers.

 
 
 
Top Videos
Rankings