Tout Wars: Poor starts usually take a toll
By David Gonos | Senior Fantasy Writer
Different owners from the Tout Wars expert league will be submitting a guest Fantasy Baseball column to CBSSports.com each week. This week's columnists, Lenny Melnick and Paul Greco of melnickandgrecofantasysports.com discuss how to rebound from a poor start. They play in the NL Tout Wars this season.
by Lenny Melnick and Paul Greco
If you are going to the bridge due to your Fantasy team's poor start, remember you do not have to pay the toll. Just say "Fantasy jump" or simply "Lenny sent me!" Surely if you drafted a players who's been hurt: Shane Victorino, Ty Wigginton, Howie Kendrick, Jimmy Rollins, Chad Cordero, Joe Borowski and the Soriano boys, or if you were the San Francisco Giants for a while, your team might be hurting.
Perhaps the star players you drafted namely: Robinson Cano, Ryan Howard, Troy Tulowitzki, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, David Ortiz, Hunter Pence and Ryan Zimmerman have led you to the bridge, as they have not been shining to this point.
Did you buy into spring training numbers? Here we take a look at five players who were on fire in spring training, but have started the season slowly and could be great options with the "buy-low" strategy:
| | ||||||
| Player | Stats | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| Hunter Pence, OF | Spring 2008 | 17 11 | 5 1 | 16 8 | 4 1 | .376 .258 |
| Robinson Cano, 2B | Spring 2008 | 9 5 | 2 1 | 19 5 | 3 0 | .446 .152 |
| Placido Polanco, 2B | Spring 2008 | 15 8 | 4 0 | 12 6 | 0 1 | .408 .185 |
| Chris Snyder, C | Spring 2008 | 15 6 | 5 0 | 14 10 | 0 0 | .395 .204 |
| J.J. Hardy, SS | Spring 2008 | 6 7 | 3 1 | 15 7 | 0 0 | .367 .226 |
Robinson Cano: There has been no bad luck for Cano. His BA/BIP is .165 and to this point has been one of the biggest disappointments in Fantasy Baseball. We don't feel that he'll stay this bad, and it could be time to reach out to the owner who has him in your league to see if you can steal him.
Placido Polanco: Going into the 2008 Fantasy Baseball draft Polanco was a guy many targeted to help their team batting average. With a .185 average to this point in the season, many Fantasy owners have dropped Polanco. Using his career starts as a measuring stick, Polanco should rebound, and if you need batting average help, he could be a great option in the future.
Chris Snyder: Snyder was a player going into the 2008 season that had many things going for him. He was 27, going to be the starter in Arizona with Miguel Montero injured and had a great spring training. The bad news, all his power stayed behind. Snyder has been a big disappointment and like Cano could be had for cheap.
J.J. Hardy: Hardy had a break out season in 2007, but as predicted by many "experts" is off to a disastrous start in 2008. With only four extra-base hits, Hardy is a player that is flying under the radar. In 2007, Hardy enjoyed a .325/ 9 HR/ 29 RBI May. He is right around the corner and some Fantasy owners are hoping so are his 2007 May numbers. If any one or combination of the above has mortally wounded your Fantasy life, don't jump ... yet! We do have ways to heal you.
Identify strengths and weaknesses: Sit down and spend some time making reasonable team projections for each Fantasy category. Although our current Tout Wars stolen base ranking appears average, using fair projections (never project higher than what a player has already achieved) we have determined SBs as strength. We can trade a big SB player and still fare very well in this category. Using projections allows you to feel comfortable trading off a category even if you are currently in the middle or bottom of the pack.
Buy Low: We have heard the saying "buy low" for years. Historically, players who have established themselves at certain player performance levels "generally" perform within a reasonable range of those levels. When the established player performs below the acceptable range of their history, we raise a flag looking for: injury, change of position, change in environment, contract or off the field problems. As we lower the red flag, go to the bridge line and seek out owners ready to take the leap. Save the owner who starts Cano, C.C. Sabathia, David Ortiz, Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Prince Fielder, Troy Tulowitzki, Pence and Ryan Howard. You may be surprised to find owners happy to stop worrying about their slow starting stars. These are many of the same players driving owners to the bridge. There can be reasons to jump or they can be life preservers.
Sell High: We have two different methods to sell high.
- Market overachieving player: Pat Burrell, Ryan Doumit, Xavier Nady, Skip Schumaker, Cliff Lee, Mark Hendrickson. Should these players continue their current pace, they will achieve all time personal highs by far, and also be considered MLB All-Stars. This is unlikely to happen. Don't expect to get an All-Star in return, but filling holes and/or dead spots is the goal here. Current hot status players may help you acquire either a more established player or acquire two lesser players with one player filling a dead spot. Trade one hot player at 25 HR, 90 RBI and 85 runs for two lesser players at 15 HR, 70 RBI and 65 runs. Which would you rather have?
Play for this year by marketing year "studs" -- Pence, Tulowitzki, Russell Martin, Evan Longoria, Geovany Soto, Johnny Cueto, Delmon Young, Justin Upton, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Joba Chamberlain. These players may be stars in the short time, but their names alone may fetch a bundle.
"A rookie is a rookie is a rookie" has been my mantra for years. In the long haul, (ok, not last year) you can go down the tubes counting on rookies. Second-year players often take the position that if it ain't broke, don't fix it as year two begins. At the same time opposing teams are making adjustments. Many second-year players need time to adjust. Market and see if you can fetch a bundle. - Give up category: Trade Closers. We take the position that closers can be the most overrated players in Fantasy Baseball. If you drafted closers high or spent $25-$40, you could have done better. To get back in the pack, market all closers separately. This allows you to upgrade multiple categories while sacrificing only one. As you market closers, identify other relief pitchers to support your ERA, and WHIP. Examples such as Santiago Casilla, Renyel Pinto, Jorge Campillo, Scott Downs, Justin Speier, Aquilino Lopez may all still be free agents. We recently obtained Pinto and Campillo. Give up saves and improve multiple categories.
- Give up batting average: If you have one foot at the ledge, try the unusual. Call every owner who has the annual batting average killer and make them an offer. Adam Dunn, Rickie Weeks, Chris B. Young, Andruw Jones and Richie Sexson are some who kill your BA yet can be a tremendous help elsewhere. Be sure to remind the other owners that BA can be improved dramatically by addition and subtraction. You may find the owner desperate to improve BA. Make a fair offer; keeping in mind the owner your trading with improves by ridding his team of BA Killer. Give up BA to help multiple categories.
We've provided you a few different ideas on how to help your struggling team. Remember, we are still in April and have five months left in the season. If you need a second opinion on your trades or want to discuss the above strategies you can always reach Lenny and Paul at advice@melnickandgrecofantasysports.com and we'll get back to you within hours.
