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Eric Mack

Week 6 Fantasy Stockwatch

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Every Monday we'll take a look at the Fantasy Baseball gainers and decliners in our Fantasy Stockwatch.

It is always amazing how quickly Fantasy owners jump on and off the bandwagon. Max Scherzer's massive rush is certainly warranted, but how is it that early April darlings Johnny Cueto and Mark Reynolds are now downgraded after a cold spell? Young players are streaky, expect it. Scherzer could dominate and then get crushed on alternating starts. Nick Adenhart got crushed in his debut and could rebound spectacularly this week. When you buy stock on a young player expect extreme volatility, but if you are buying the right one, hold on for dear life and ride out the occasional storms.

This week's potential 'Buy Guys'

SP Johnny Cueto, CIN
What? How can his stock be up? Well, we are trying to be proactive here. It's time to buy low on this elite pitching talent. He is coming off an awful start and could have some more real stinkers thrown in, but the bet here is you will get more good than bad over the long haul -- at least as long as he stays healthy.
3B Mark Reynolds, ARI
Another hot player to start the year who has hit the skids. Reynolds has 30-homer, 100-RBI potential -- albeit with wild strikeout totals. Don't risk buying now on him in Head-to-Head points leagues that penalize strikeouts, but go get him in any other Fantasy formats that don't. Reynolds is a streaky slugger who might have gotten his roughest stretch of the season out of his system. Hitting, like young pitching, is a roller-coaster ride, but Reynolds should be more up than down -- especially in points leagues where you just care about run production. He is still on pace for 36 homers, 130 RBI and 125 runs.
OF Jeremy Hermida, FLA
A favorite here, Hermida is still a future star that has yet to pop. He is going well right now with a .309 average, but the homers, RBI and runs are still lagging a bit. If anyone in your league is sick of waiting around for him to become a .290-20-90-90 guy, you could be able to get him on the cheap. He is only starting in 46 percent of CBSSports.com's leagues in Fantasy Week 6 (May 5-11).
C Ryan Doumit, PIT
The Pirates' offensive ineptitude has given Doumit a chance to become a full-time Fantasy catcher. He has been out of the gate mashing -- on a .345-26-62-99 (.376 OBP, .575 SLUG) pace -- and has turned Ronny Paulino into a part-timer. Doumit figures to only sit against some left-handed pitchers at this point, especially since he has become the Pirates' cleanup hitter -- as a catcher! Victor Martinez and Bengie Molina are the only others that can make that claim. If you are looking for a moment of weakness in a fellow owner, the Pirates face four lefties in a six-game week. Doumit could be quiet this week and attainable by the weekend. Bonus!
SP Clayton Kershaw, LAD
Because Max Scherzer was able to go from two percent ownership in CBSSports.com's leagues to almost 90 percent inside two weeks, we feel obligated to give you a name that might be the next potential impact call-up. Kershaw is better than Scherzer, albeit younger and less battle tested. Kershaw has a 1.11 ERA, a .197 batting-average against and drew rave reviews in spring training. He has not allowed an earned run in his past three starts and stretched it out to a season-high 6 2/3 innings last time out. Couple that data with the failures of the Dodgers' No. 5 starters and you have a sure-fire powder keg off the waiver wire in almost 70 percent of our leagues.

Some more Buy Guys we couldn't fit in: 2B Howie Kendrick, LAA; OF Matt Kemp, LAD; SP Greg Smith, OAK; DH/1B Aubrey Huff, BAL; SP Jon Lester, BOS.

This week's potential 'Goodbye Guys'

RP Eric Gagne, MIL
It won't be the first time this was stated, or the last, but: Gagne doesn't deserve to be a closer at this point. Sure, he is on pace for 47 saves and had five consecutive outings without an earned run before Sunday. But how many times do you and the Brewers need to be burned before you move in another direction? Hopefully not too many more. Derrick Turnbow has already been ushered out of town and Gagne could eventually be removed as closer. Salomon Torres and David Riske are the Brewers' top options to close if they do decide to make a change.
RP Rafael Betancourt, CLE
So much for Betancourt potentially taking the Indians' closer's reins and running with them amid Joe Borowski's absence. Betancourt's shaky start has led the Indians to announce Borowski will return as the closer once healthy -- perhaps by mid-May. Borowski is a sleeper for you in projected role alone and might be your replacement option if, er when, Gagne is removed from the closer's role in Milwaukee. Betancourt is on a short leash and is no longer a favorite as a middle reliever here.
RP Rafael Soriano, ATL
Another closer sleeper named Rafael who is due to let us down. Soriano has a tender elbow keeping him on the DL and now will return only as a part-time closer, because John Smoltz's shoulder will force him to move back to the bullpen. The move is being made to help the Braves' awful bullpen as much as it is to get the most out of their 40-year-old veteran. Soriano owners need to hope he comes off the DL smoking in the next couple of weeks -- perhaps for quick-flip trade bait -- because he will be a middle reliever as soon as June.
OF Andruw Jones, LAD
Dodgers manager Joe Torre said this weekend: "We know his problems aren't physical ones and his hitting trouble isn't terminal." A nice vote of confidence for a has-been. But the problem with Jones is the Dodgers have three productive outfielders to go with amid Jones' struggles. Matt Kemp is a burgeoning superstar; Andre Ethier is too consistent to sit; and Juan Pierre has shown signs of life in the past couple of weeks. Jones is the odd man out and is worth dropping in all mixed leagues if you cannot afford to stash him another month on your reserves. Yours truly cut him in a standard, mixed 5x5 Rotisserie league -- four weeks too late unfortunately.
SP Bronson Arroyo, CIN
Another struggling Reds pitcher on this page, but this one we are more inclined to tell you to give up on. Arroyo has been decent in stretches the past couple of years, but it was mostly because he was eating innings -- quality ones. That is simply no longer the case. The Reds won't Barry Zito-him to the bullpen in favor of prospect Homer Bailey at this point, but just because they are stuck with him, doesn't mean you have to be on your Fantasy team.

Some more Goodbye Guys we couldn't fit in: DH Billy Butler, KC; C Jason Kendall, MIL; 3B Casey Blake, CLE; 3B Andy Marte, CLE; OF Jason Michaels, CLE.

Stock advisor

Vincent Shammami, Farmington Hills, Michigan: Is it worth dropping Aaron Hill from my team to pickup Jayson Werth?

Emack: Hill's second base eligibility gets him more Fantasy value at this point. If you are starting Hill as your DH in a standard mixed league, well, then it wouldn't hurt to take the shot on Werth's potential. Werth had a bad week after a great one, but he should be able to rebound and still prove worthy of regular at-bats.

Dave Hunt, Des Moines, Iowa: I am in a standard 5x5 Head-to-Head league. I have a pending trade offer of receiving Robinson Cano for Michael Young. What do you think? Is it worth the gamble of Cano's upside vs. Young's reliable numbers?

Emack: You have to like Cano's power and run-production potential over Young at this point. He just has a far better supporting cast.

You can e-mail us your Fantasy Baseball Stockwatch questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Stockwatch in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Joe Mauer
Mauer 'feels good' after workout
Joe Mauer, C, MIN
2:50 PM
News: The News-Press reports Twins C Joe Mauer took two rounds of batting practice and went through a set of conditioning drills around the base paths Monday, and he appeared to have no problems sprinting. Mauer battled leg injuries in 2011. “I feel good,” Mauer said. “It feels good to get back out here again.” Mauer also put to rest the rumors that he gained 30 pounds in the offseason. “I heard that, too, and I couldn’t believe it," he said. “It’s just how rumors start. There were a lot of things out there last year that weren’t true. I’m about 220, 225. I need to add a little more weight before we start.”
Analysis: While most players feel good when they arrive to camp, it's especially encouraging to hear Mauer say that since last season he was coming off knee surgery and wasn't ready for the start of spring training. Mauer will head into 2012 motivated after an injury-plagued 2011. There's no guarantee he is past his knee problems, but the Twins are going to do their best to make sure Mauer avoids the DL. There is obviously risk involved with drafting Mauer, but his potential to be an elite Fantasy option at catcher make it worth drafting him. An offseason of staying health could make Mauer a steal in the fifth or sixth round of mixed-league drafts.

Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens still trade candidate
Jair Jurrjens, SP, ATL
11:57 AM
News: CBSSports.com senior writer Danny Knobler reports sources said the Braves could try and trade SP Jair Jurrjens if he proves healthy in spring training. The Braves tried to trade Jurrjens this winter, but they couldn't find a taker because potential trade partners weren't convinced Jurrjens was healthy or could stay healthy. Jurrjens missed the end of the 2011 season with a knee injury and has made just 43 starts the last two seasons.
Analysis: When Jurrjens is healthy, he is one of the best pitchers in the majors. His 1.87 ERA in the first half last season was second to only Jered Weaver among major-league starters. Jurrjens has won 13-plus games in three of the last four seasons. So why would the Braves want to trade him? Well, Jurrjens is a free agent after the 2013 season and it appears Atlanta is ready to clear some rotation space for the likes of Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens with Jurrjens this spring. There appears to be a chance he might not finish the spring with Atlanta, which could mean Jurrjens slides down draft boards in NL-only formats that lose players who are traded to the AL. In mixed leagues, Jurrjens is still a decent mid-round Fantasy pick.

A.J. Burnett
Angels, Indians interested in Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
11:40 AM
News: FOXSports.com reports sources indicate the Angels are interested in Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, whose name has been heavily mentioned in trade rumors with the Pirates. However, the Angels are on Burnett's no-trade list and he wants to stay east. Pittsburgh is still considered the heavy favorite to potentially land Burnett. CBSSports.com baseball insider Jon Heyman said the Indians have also inquired about Burnett. The trade talks involve DH Travis Hafner, but Cleveland is unsure if it would make that trade. The Yankees also don't mind the free agent DH options available.
Analysis: Right now the hold up in the Pirates trade is how much money Pittsburgh will be willing to pay of Burnett's remaining salary over the next two years ($33 million) and the prospects the Pirates would send to the Yankees. Perhaps these rumors regarding the Angels and Indians might speed up the process, but other sources have said the Yankees would keep Burnett if the deal isn't right for them. Wherever Burnett pitches in 2012, he is going to be a late-round Fantasy pick coming off a turbulent 2011 campaign.

Coco Crisp
Crisp moving over for Cespedes?
Coco Crisp, CF, OAK
10:13 AM
News: Sources have told FOXSports.com that the Athletics intend to start newly signed Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes in center field right away, which would move Coco Crisp over to left field and Seth Smith to DH. Cespedes is already 26 and has faced upper-level competition in Cuba, but some scouts think he could use some time in the minors to adjust to the U.S. game.
Analysis: None of these reports are coming directly from the Athletics, so you should consider them nothing more than speculation at this point. Still, speculation is better than nothing, and if Cespedes is in fact going to be on the opening day roster, then he might even be worth drafting in the middle rounds, given his upside. As for Crisp, moving to left field wouldn't have any real impact on his Fantasy value. The Athletics outfield is even more crowded with the Cespedes signing, but the team seems to consider Crisp a mainstay at the top of the lineup. Given his base-stealing ability and doubles pop, he's a worthy fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Ryan Braun
Braun will know fate by Feb. 24
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
10:03 AM
News: Monday came and went without a ruling on Brewers OF Ryan Braun's pending 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It was the 25th day since the three-man panel heard Braun's appeal. According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the panel was supposed to “make all reasonable efforts” to deliver a verdict within that period of time, but chairman Shyam Das was given an extension. A decision is expected before Braun reports to spring training on Feb. 24, but the exact date is unknown since the process is intended to be confidential.
Analysis: The panel's need for a lengthy deliberation is theoretically a good sign, but then again, since the process is usually confidential, we don't know how common such extensions are. Braun's case is said to be unique, but it might not make much of a difference to the panel. If you're drafting now, you should do so with the expectation that Braun will miss the first 50 games of the season, which could allow him to slip to the middle rounds in standard mixed leagues. If the appeal is upheld, though, he's suddenly back to being a first-rounder in Fantasy.

Michael Pineda
Pineda 'excited' to be with Yanks
Michael Pineda, SP, NYY
3:15 PM
News: Michael Pineda started his New York Yankees' career a little early. The All-Star pitcher acquired from Seattle last month joined pre-spring training workouts Tuesday at the Yankees' minor league complex. "I'm excited because it's my first time," Pineda said. "I'm working hard to help my team make it to the playoffs." The Mariners and Yankees completed a four-player trade that sent promising slugger Jesus Montero and pitcher Hector Noesi to the Mariners for Pineda and pitching prospect Jose Campos. "My mom is excited because she has a lot of family in New York, and she's never come to America," said Pineda, who's mother lives in the Dominican Republic. "So this year, it's the first time she's coming to America. She's excited." Pineda and second baseman Robinson Cano are friends, which should help the pitcher's adjustment. "He talked to me, (and said) focus on the game, in your work," Pineda said. "Don't worry. I'll take care of you."
Analysis: The 23-year-old got off to a 6-2 start with a 2.16 ERA in his first season before finishing at 9-10 with a 3.74 ERA. He led the major leagues by holding right-handed batters to a .184 average, and he struck out 173 in 171 innings. Every Fantasy owner is looking toward Pineda in pinstripes. Had he been on a contender as a rookie in 2011, then he might have had a better record. He went 9-10 in 28 starts. Ivan Nova went 16-4 with the Yankees in 28 outings (27 starts) last season, which Fantasy owners would take any day given Pineda's upside. Consider Pineda a top 25 Fantasy SP on Draft Day. He was already a must-own Fantasy SP, but joining the Yankees makes him that much more valuable.

Alex Liddi
Liddi to work at 1B in spring
Alex Liddi, 3B, SEA
3:09 PM
News: The Seattle Times reports Mariners manager Eric Wedge said 3B Alex Liddi will be playing first base for most of the spring. Liddi began taking grounders at first on Tuesday.
Analysis: It seems as though the Mariners want to see if they can find an alternative way to get Liddi on the roster in the event Kyle Seager and Chone Figgins prove to be viable options at third base. Liddi could be a backup to Justin Smoak at first base. However, it appears Liddi might only be vying for a backup role with Seattle, so unless he has an outstanding spring, then he should be left for AL-only Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka
Nishioka wants to be 'aggressive'
Tsuyoshi Nishioka, SS, MIN
2:58 PM
News: The News-Press reports Twins SS Tsuyoshi Nishioka arrived a week early to spring training so he could adjust to the time difference from Japan. He worked out Monday and said through a translator that adjusting to his first experience in the majors took its toll on him in 2011. “I want to be more aggressive,” Nishioka said. “Not knowing right from left, it was strange playing the sport of baseball. It’s difficult when you think about it. Driving a car, you drive on opposite sides of the road. Outside the ballpark, there were lifestyle adjustments, too. That made it pretty difficult.”
Analysis: It's good that Nishioka has come to camp with the right attitude. However, he is still looking at being a reserve after the team signed Jamey Carroll to start at shortstop. That's not to say Nishioka can't emerge as a starter at some point this season, but the Twins are going to make him earn it. Nishioka is at best an AL-only Fantasy reserve on Draft Day.

Mike Moustakas
Moustakas in great shape
Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC
12:48 PM
News: Royals manager Ned Yost had his contract option for the 2013 season picked up on Tuesday, but the Kansas City skipper seemed more interested in talking about his 2012 team. Yost was impressed with how many players have shown up for spring training early and is really blown away by the fitness level of a few of his players. "Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas -- I'm extremely proud of both of those guys," Yost told reporters. "They could be in the best shape they've been in their careers. Billy looks great, and I didn't even hardly recognize Moose he looks so good."
Analysis: While the fitness level doesn't necessarily mean a player will have success, it really can't hurt either. To hear Yost rave about Moustakas should get the attention of Fantasy owners. Moustakas, who is one of the Royals' top prospects, struggled when he first arrived in the majors last season. However, he seemed to have figured it out by season's end. Moustakas hit .352 with four homers and 12 RBI in his final 22 games last season. He is definitely one of the more intriguing Fantasy sleepers heading into 2012 and this latest report just adds to his appeal on Draft Day.

Jake Westbrook
Westbrook sheds 25 pounds
Jake Westbrook, SP, STL
2:11 PM
News: The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports Cardinals SP Jake Westbrook has shown up for spring training 25 pounds lighter than he was last season.
Analysis: This is the time of year where everyone seems to come to camp in better shape than they left last season. Hopefully for Westbrook it makes a difference in his game. He did go 12-9 in 2011, but he posted a 4.66 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 33 starts. Westbrook can chew up innings, but he won't post impressive ERA, WHIP or strikeout total. Leave him for NL-only Fantasy formats.

 
 
 
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