Sliders: Do bad teams produce dependable closers?

I have a new theory, and I want to share it with you.

It involves saves, Brian Wilson and, in an indirect way, Frank Robinson.

But I'll stop teasing it to an audience that, as far as I know, has vanished. See, a funny thing happened after last week's column when I fired back at all the angry e-mails. They stopped coming -- completely.

On my computer screen, what was once a lush valley of hateful words and poor punctuation is now a comparative wasteland, complete with tumbleweeds, cow skulls and an insatiable thirst for more.

More water? No. More e-mails? Maybe.

So when you see me blasting Fausto Carmona for his poor walk rate, let your hand roll into a fist. When you spot my about-face on Jayson Werth, feel your blood boil. And just when you think you've hit the climax of your rage, send any and all e-mails to Scott Wh -- what was it again?

It's true. In the desert, you don't remember your name.

So read me. Write me. Get me out of this awful place. It's Fantasy Sliders all over again.

Sliders

These guys' recent performances signify more than a hot or cold streak. Their Fantasy appeal has actually "slid" either up or down.

Brian Wilson, RP, Giants

I have a theory. It's not quite the Jimmy Rollins Theory from two weeks ago, but it has clout regardless. If you want me to give it a name, I'll call it the Chad Cordero Theory.

The Giants won't likely blow out many teams, meaning Brian Wilson can still rack up saves. (US Presswire)

It answers this: What do you get when you have a decent closer on a bad team with decent pitching and zero hitting?

If the theory proves accurate, lots and lots of saves.

Which brings us to Wilson, who has 10 saves already to put him on pace for 50, certainly not what Fantasy owners expected when they drafted Carlos Marmol and Jeremy Accardo ahead of him. His WHIP of 1.57 leaves a bit to be desired, but he had allowed exactly one hit per inning through Monday, so his stuff is clearly there.

And I contend that his rate of saves will continue -- maybe not so he reaches 50, but at least 40.

Give me a minute before you blow a vein in your neck. The Giants are a bad team, no doubt, but even the worst teams -- probably worse than this year's Giants -- win 60-65 games. The opportunity for a league-leading number of saves is there; what undermines it are blowouts, complete games and last at-bat victories.

Complete games and last at-bat wins happen by the handful each year, so we can pretty much eliminate them. As for the blowouts, we've long ago established the Giants have an offense so bad you wonder how it was by accident. With 106 runs through Monday, they rank dead last and baseball, and with Bengie Molina batting cleanup, we can safely assume they won't win any 10-3 affairs. (The closest they've had is an 8-2 win at St. Louis on April 19.)

When they win, they'll win 5-3 or 3-1, coming out on top because starting pitchers like Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez keep the lead within reach for their puny little offense. And each time that happens, Wilson will trot in from the bullpen to record a save. Repeat the process 45 times, and you have a pretty nice Fantasy closer.

If you want a historical example of this theory put into practice, look no further than the aforementioned Cordero. He saved 47 games for the .500 Nationals in 2005, leading the league. That team ranked last in baseball with 639 runs scored but ninth with 673 allowed.

I'm not saying you part with proven studs like Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan and Billy Wagner for Wilson, but the Giants reliever looks like a nice No. 2 Fantasy closer right now and worth buying despite his surprising number of saves so far.

Fausto Carmona, SP, Indians

Many have heard and some have frowned upon my suggestion to draft strikeout pitchers, but my condemnation of Carmona here has nothing to do with any of that ... sort of. It has more to do with his ghastly 1.73 WHIP despite a respectable 2.60 ERA.

That divergence won't last forever. If he continues to walk 6.8 batters per nine innings, his ERA will rise and rise abruptly. And he hasn't shown anything in his last two starts to make me think the walks will decrease, issuing eight over his last 11 2/3 innings.

I considered Carmona a good Fantasy starting pitcher coming into the season. I didn't want him, but he had just won 19 games with a low ERA and impressive stuff, so yeah, he was good.

But he didn't walk batters at nearly this rate, and in order for a non-strikeout pitcher to remain good in Fantasy, his other stats can't let up at all. Yeah, pitchers can record outs other ways in the real world, but in Fantasy, strikeouts are their own separate category in Rotisserie leagues and worth one point each in Head-to-Head leagues. So if a non-strikeout pitcher provides a mediocre ERA, a mediocre WHIP and an unimpressive win total -- and Carmona's walk rate suggests he'll end up with all three -- what good is he? Look at how a subtle change in Mark Buehrle's stats a couple years ago transformed him from a Fantasy stud to a back-of-the-rotation type.

For now, Carmona's Fantasy appeal remains high, but I'd probably shop him before that changes.

Melky Cabrera, OF, Yankees

Cabrera hit his sixth home run Sunday, putting him on pace for 29 -- which would far exceed his previous career high of eight. And while I don't actually believe he'll hit 29 long balls this year, I do believe his power is real, is coming and is enough to make you want him in Fantasy.

Which isn't a universally held belief among Fantasy pundits -- not even in this office -- and you can understand why. Cabrera hasn't shown much power yet, and it's no secret Yankees farmhands get more publicity -- and with it, more praise -- than, say, Twins farmhands. But Cabrera is a prospect nonetheless and only 23-years-old, meaning his body still has a few more years to mature.

To give angry e-mailers a new point of attack, let's compare Cabrera to another toolsy outfielder who demonstrated little power his first two years in the majors: Alex Rios. Rios has emerged as a capable all-around hitter with the power to smack 25 homers, but he hit only 11 in his first 907 career at-bats. Cabrera has 15 in his first 1,024.

I know, I know. Cabrera isn't 6-foot-5 like Rios. You got me there.

But Rios also doesn't have quite the plate discipline of Cabrera, who has demonstrated an impressive contact rate, fanning 68 times last year and 59 times in 2006, and a near 1-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Based on the data we have for Cabrera, I project him to peak with numbers somewhere between Bobby Abreu and Hideki Matsui during their primes. Think a .300 average, 25 home runs and 15 stolen bases.

And if these first five weeks are any indication, he'll take his biggest step to reaching those numbers this year.

Greg Smith, SP, Athletics

Smith is no Max Scherzer. He doesn't blow hitters away, and he doesn't throw anything to make his pitching coaches do a double take.

But he probably made you do a double take at the box score Sunday when you saw he struck out 10 Rangers in six innings. And then you probably looked at the rest of his line: three hits, two walks, one earned run. And then you probably looked at each of his past starts: eight innings, two runs; seven innings, two runs; seven innings, one run.

Yeah, I know exactly what you did because I did the same thing.

And then you probably added Smith in all your leagues. And then you probably drove home and popped in a DVD of Lost.

OK, our paths might have ventured in different directions somewhere in there, but hopefully you at least got to the point where you added Smith. The 24-year-old rookie has allowed as many as three earned runs only once in six starts and, along with Dana Eveland, has shown why the Athletics chose Arizona as the destination for Dan Haren. He had a great spring, posting an ERA of 1.50, so when the Athletics sent him to the minors to open the season, I couldn't help but raise an eyebrow (and cut him from all my AL-teams -- curses!). But he's back now and better than ever, pitching deep into games and limiting runs. And while I don't think he can maintain his 2.54 ERA, I don't see it rising much higher than 3.50. Add him if your leaguemates somehow overlooked him.

Nick Swisher, OF, White Sox

I imagine I won't get too much grief for this pick, if only because Swisher's Fantasy owners have to feel pretty disgusted by this point.

A funny thing happened regarding the White Sox outfielder going into the season. Everyone drafted him assuming he'd hit more than his 22 home runs of a year ago -- many more, as in enough to approach his 35 of 2006. And I wouldn't say I disagreed -- he did tear through the Athletics minor-league system and does have model plate discipline -- but something about his situation didn't smell quite right.

Going into a season, each player normally has a realistic projection and an optimistic projection. He sometimes reaches his optimistic projection, yes, but when that projection becomes the expectation and people start drafting him accordingly, then you end up with a Fantasy bust. I think that's exactly what happened with Swisher this year. People so badly wanted him to emerge as the next 35-home run guy that they drafted him as if he already had.

In reality, he might just be a 20-25-home run guy. His .210 batting average and three home runs so far seem to suggest so, and even during his 35-homer 2006, his slugging percentage was a relatively low .493, suggesting a fluke. We already knew he wouldn't hit much higher than .260, and outfielders who hit .260 with 25 home runs only go so far in Fantasy. Think of Swisher as a No. 4 Fantasy outfielder going forward.

Cristian Guzman, SS, Nationals

Before you go crazy over my selection here let me assure you I'm not calling Guzman a Fantasy stud or a top-10 player at his position or anything close to it. But when a guy goes from being a joke in Fantasy to a serviceable middle infielder, his appeal has clearly shifted. And with Guzman, I think we have a large enough sample size now to call his transformation legitimate.

Something happened after his shoulder surgery in 2006. A procedure that usually kills hitters actually made him stronger. In 310 at-bats in two partial seasons since then, he has batted .319 with a slugging percentage over .460. Before the procedure, he hadn't produced a batting average over .300 or a slugging percentage over .400 since 2001.

And in 2001, he appeared to be a nice, young up-and-comer, batting .302 with 10 home runs, 25 stolen bases and a slugging percentage of .477 as a 23-year-old, so his success isn't completely out of nowhere. I just don't understand why now.

But 310 at-bats is nothing to sneeze at, and if you want to grab Guzman as a middle infielder in Rotisserie leagues, I won't laugh or say mean things under my breath.

Hanging Sliders

These guys look like Sliders, but not so fast! Their recent performances might cause you to misinterpret their Fantasy appeal.

Tim Redding, SP, Nationals

How many Nationals can one edition of Fantasy Sliders take? I'm drawing the line at two for now, but I feel like I have to say something about Redding because he just ... won't ... slow ... down.

In this topsy-turvy universe of ours, I thought I could always rely on three constants -- the sun, the moon and the mediocrity of Tim Redding.

But Redding gave up only one run on six hits in 6 1/3 innings Sunday against the Pirates, striking out five in just the latest of a string of quality starts dating back to a one-hit masterpiece at Philadelphia on April 2. He has only once given up as many as four earned runs, and even then, he recorded 10 strikeouts.

Can Redding possibly maintain his 3.20 ERA and 1.14 WHIP? I mean, his career-best WHIP is 1.39, which probably tells you everything you need to know. He has twice posted an ERA under 4.00, including last year, so he does have some appeal in NL-only leagues, but he could just as easily blow up and post an ERA of 6.00. His inability to go deeper than six innings doesn't bode well for his long-term prospects either.

Don't even bother with him in mixed leagues. You'll just end up cutting him before the end of the year.

Travis Hafner, DH, Indians

Hafner ... he kind of stinks right now.

In case you haven't heard, the designated hitter's "slump" has become more of a career-altering swoon. Through Monday, he has a .245 batting average with 22 home runs since the end of last April -- approximately one calendar year -- which makes him like Mike Cameron without the stolen bases. Not what you paid for.

But here's the thing: I'm not cutting him. I'm not trading him. I'm not selling his autographed memorabilia while I still have the chance. All I'm doing is parking him on my bench, sitting down and waiting, arms folded, for him to become right again.

I admit I have my doubts. I admit the day might soon come when I type his name in a different section of this column, complete with a big downward-pointing arrow and the words GET RID OF THIS GUY in all capital letters. I admit I might only hold out such unwavering hope because I own Hafner in the league I consider my most important.

But this collapse just doesn't make any sense. He still has his size. He still has his health. He still has the faith of the Indians and the ability to take a walk. And if it means anything, he hit .316 with five home runs and a .965 OPS last September, seemingly righting the ship before the playoffs and offseason interrupted him.

And that four-week ray of hope is enough to hold on to Hafner, provided you have a bench. You know he hasn't lost whatever enabled him to hit .308 with 42 home runs in 2006 and come close the two years prior. He's only misplaced it. And if he finds it again after you let him go for bananas, you'll spend the next calendar year kicking yourself.

Change-up

Every week, I make terrible errors in judgment. It happens to us all, and if it didn't, Fantasy wouldn't be a game worth playing. Fortunately, I permit myself the opportunity to correct one of my mistakes by throwing a change-up.

Jayson Werth, OF, Phillies

Maybe it's not surprising one of this column's biggest reaches was met with the biggest thud.

Werth hit the turf hard after I hyped him last week as the next Lance Berkman -- OK, I didn't go that far, but I mentioned Berkman's name in the analysis. After seemingly winning an everyday job upon the return of Shane Victorino, Werth responded with a 2-for-17 week and a spot on the bench for the final two games.

I still like his peripherals and think he'd fare well in an everyday role, but if the Phillies are going to pull the plug on him that quickly, I don't think he'll get the at-bats he needs to make a serious impact in mixed leagues. For now, I'll quietly observe him on the waiver wire and hope Geoff Jenkins magically disappears.

You can e-mail Scott your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Sliders in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.We'll answer as many as we can.