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Fantasy Triple Play: No Joshing with Hamilton

Each week three of our resident Fantasy writers will answer three pertinent questions that all owners should be asking themselves. Feel free to submit your own questions for this feature and we'll tackle them in this space.

Fantasy Triple Play
  Do you think there is any way that Josh Hamilton will be able to keep up his current league-leading place? Who will have better numbers at the end of the season: Placido Polanco or Robinson Cano? What should owners do with Andruw Jones?
Scott White
Scott White
As in his pace for 167 RBI? No way. That's getting close to the record books, and for a bottom-of-the-division team like Texas, it's a little far-fetched. I'll go one step further and say we shouldn't necessarily expect Hamilton to maintain his pace of a .300 average and 30 home runs, though he definitely could. We have about half a season's stats for Hamilton, and although it's an awfully good half a season, it's still too small of a sample size to make any rushed judgments. Do I like Hamilton? Yes. Would I start him as a No. 2 Fantasy outfielder? Yes. But let's not make him a 2009 first-round pick just yet. Excluding stolen bases because neither gets many of them, the only category in which Polanco might top Cano is batting average, and even in that, I have my money on Cano. He's a more complete player, still emerging at the age of 25, and as crazy as it sounds, I trust his track record more. Polanco is a useful player and a successful slap hitter, but his .341 batting average last year was kind of a fluke. Look up his career stats. He usually finishes in the .290 range. Jones is toast. I don't think I can say it any more clearly than that. He hit .222 last year and is hitting .158 this year. The team has tried blaming his poor hitting on everything from his batting stance to his eyesight to his allergies, but we all know the truth. He flat-out stinks. He might still hit you 25 home runs, but expect a low batting average and somewhat sporadic at-bats. I'd go ahead and cut him in mixed leagues if I had my eye on a particular free agent.
Eric Mack
Eric Mack
Absolutely. This is an elite talent that is just scratching the surface right now. He can develop into a .300-40-120-100 player, especially in that hitter's park. The question was never ability for the 27-year-old breakout. It was about staying healthy and clean. He appears to be on the way in those regards now, too. Polanco is a solid player, but Cano is an elite one -- especially because of his supporting cast. Cano got off to a slow start last season, too, before emerging as a potential batting champion. Consider Cano a top-five Fantasy second baseman and Polanco more of a top 10-15. He has to be at least reserved in any league, and that is at best. You can justify cutting him outside of NL-only formats. He just hasn't shown anything and he is crushing your batting average in Rotisserie leagues. That month you hung on to him in those formats will take three months to overcome. If you can afford to, stash him and hope the goes on a massive hot streak -- but we just can't see it at this point.
Scott White
Michael Hurcomb
Amid all Hamilton's personal problems following his selection in the 1999 draft, he was still the No. 1 overall pick based on talent. He displayed his god-given gifts last season in Cincinnati when he was healthy, and he is doing so again in 2008 with the Rangers. The only thing that is going to slow Hamilton down is an injury. He plays in one of the top hitting parks in baseball and it will help his numbers be inflated by season's end. Polanco should end the season with the better numbers. The fact he is hitting in front of the big bats in Detroit will provide him with quality pitches to hit. Also, the only reason his numbers were down to open the season was because of a back injury. Since he got time to rest, Polanco has been on a tear. In his last 10 games, his average has gone from .140 to .248. It just goes to show how much the injury impacted him. Finally, opposing teams are more worried about Cano than Polanco. Cano is one of the higher ranked players on scouting reports when the Yankees are on the docket. Polanco is not for the Tigers since he is overshadowed by Curtis Granderson, Miguel Cabrera, Gary Sheffield, Magglio Ordonez, etc. Pray that Joe Torre gets back to managing and finds someway to coach up Jones. The slugging outfielder is pressing at the plate and it is the manager's job to help him relax. Fantasy owners just need to be patient. Jones' average might linger below .250 all season, but I just can't tell Fantasy owners to drop a guy that has 25-homer, 90-RBI potential.

You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Triple Play in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Dice-K throwing off mound
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, BOS
11:52 AM
News: The Boston Globe reports while Red Sox pitchers and catchers don't officially have to report until Sunday, some players have arrived early, including SP Daisuke Matsuzaka. The paper noted that Matsuzaka, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery in June, was throwing off a mound with manager Bobby Valentine watching.
Analysis: Clearly, the fact Dice-K is already throwing off a mound is good news. However, we still have to temper expectations. It usually takes pitchers 12-18 months to recover from Tommy John surgery, so we aren't expecting to see Dice-K in a major-league game until mid-summer. We will continue to update his progress as the news warrants, but Dice-K is merely a draft-and-stash option in the deepest of Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

David Ortiz
Ortiz settles before hearing
David Ortiz, DH, BOS
11:11 AM
News: DH David Ortiz and the Red Sox came to terms on a one-year contract hours before the two sides were set to go to an arbitration hearing. Ortiz signed a one-year, $14.575 million contract.
Analysis: Now that Ortiz has this business out of the way he can get down to focusing on the baseball aspect of things. Ortiz hit .309 with 29 homers and 96 RBI in 2011. He is DH-eligible only in Fantasy, which hurts his appeal a bit. But Ortiz remains a viable early-to-mid-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day.

Chris Snyder
Snyder fully recovered from surgery
Chris Snyder, C, HOU
12:27 PM
News: The Houston Chronicle reports Astros catcher Chris Snyder said he is fully recovered from the back surgery he had in June.
Analysis: A lot of folks feel Snyder will make the Astros roster out of camp, but he still needs to prove he is past his back problem, which robbed him of most of the 2011 season with Pittsburgh. Manager Brad Mills has already said Jason Castro is the team's starting catcher, but he is recovering from foot surgery and isn't expected to be ready for spring games until the second week of the exhibition schedule. In the meantime, Snyder will be battling Humberto Quintero for the backup role. Snyder has decent pop for a catcher, but his strength is defense. Snyder is more of an NL-only Fantasy option.

Ian Desmond
Nats convinced Desmond will re-emerge
Ian Desmond, SS, WAS
11:41 AM
News: CSN Washington reports the Nationals are convinced shortstop Ian Desmond is in for a bounce-back season in 2012 because of two trends they spotted in 2011. The first is that Desmond made significant strides at the plate in the second half of last season. After hitting .223 with a .264 OBP and .308 slugging percentage before the All-Star break, Desmond hit .289 with a .338 OBP and .417 slugging percentage down the stretch. He really thrived when manager Davey Johnson made him the leadoff hitter, which is a position he is expected to keep heading into the spring. The second trend is that Desmond's defense improved as the season progressed. He committed seven errors in his first 20 games and just 16 over his final 134.
Analysis: A lot of folks were excited about Desmond's 2011 outlook after he played well in his first two MLB stints in 2009 and 2010. Unfortunately, Desmond took a step back last year and will plummet down Fantasy draft boards because of it. Clearly, there is potential with Desmond. But don't reach for him on Draft Day. Let him fall to the late rounds in mixed leagues and hope that you grab a bounce-back candidate.

Phil Hughes
Hughes appears ready to compete
Phil Hughes, SP, NYY
11:26 AM
News: Newsday reports Yankees SP Phil Hughes, who looks noticeably slimmer and more muscular, said he weighs about 240 pounds. He added that in the offseason he changed his "body composition."
Analysis: The early word from Yankees camp is that Hughes is in shape and ready to compete for a spot in the rotation. Although, he is on the outside looking in if the Yankees don't trade A.J. Burnett. Though, if Hughes proves to be more valuable in the rotation than the bullpen, then the Yankees might have to reconsider his role in 2012. Let's see how Hughes does this spring training before making a final evaluation about his 2012 outlook, but clearly him being in shape is a good start. Hughes could be a viable Fantasy option again if he returns to the 18-8 pitcher he was in 2010.

Jon Garland
Garland gets shot with Indians
Jon Garland, SP, LAD
10:37 AM
News: The Indians signed SP Jon Garland to a minor-league deal on Monday. Garland, who last pitched for the Dodgers, was limited to only nine starts last season before having arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder in June.
Analysis: Garland will most likely compete with Kevin Slowey for the final spot in the Indians rotation, but he's a hittable pitcher who now may be working with less than his best stuff coming off shoulder surgery. Even if he's able to win a rotation spot, he won't be worth drafting outside of deeper AL-only leagues.

A.J. Burnett
Yanks, Pirates still talking Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
2/12/2012
News: The New York Daily News reports the Yankees and Pirates continued to talk Sunday about completing a trade for A.J. Burnett, but a baseball source said the sides are still "a good ways away" from agreeing on the final terms. The source added the Pirates are willing to pay $10 million of the remaining $33 million Burnett is owed over the next two seasons, but Pittsburgh has offered "two borderline prospects" in return. The Yankees could be willing to pay more of Burnett's remaining contract if they receive a top-tier prospect from Pittsburgh. A person familiar with the Yankees' thinking believes there is enough common ground that a deal could be completed in the coming days. However, ESPN.com reports their source said the Yankees aren't desperate to make a trade and the team would go to spring training with Burnett if a deal isn't completed.
Analysis: Leaving the Yankees usually has a negative impact on a player's Fantasy value, but in Burnett's case it might be the opposite, especially if he moves to the NL. He has struggled to handle the pressure of pitching in New York and a fresh start could be what he needs. Burnett had some of his best years in the majors pitching in the NL. Still, Burnett would be nothing more than a risky late-round Fantasy pick in mixed leagues.

Josh Johnson
JJ continues to feel no discomfort
Josh Johnson, SP, MIA
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Marlins SP Josh Johnson arrived to the team's spring training complex in Jupiter, Fla., on Feb. 9, more than a week ahead of the Marlins reporting date for pitchers and catchers. Johnson, who has been throwing off a mound near his home in Las Vegas, threw his first bullpen session of the year in Florida on Feb. 10. He felt no discomfort and expects to be ready for the first workouts on Feb. 22. He made only nine starts last year because of shoulder issues.
Analysis: Any encouraging news regarding JJ is welcomed. But Fantasy owners do have to be aware of the risk of drafting him. Of course his potential makes it worth it, but JJ has made it past 30 starts just once in his career. Look to Johnson as more of a No. 2 Fantasy SP on Draft Day, but clearly he has the potential to be your ace if he can stay healthy.

Hunter Pence
Pence likely to hit cleanup
Hunter Pence, RF, PHI
2/12/2012
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports Phillies manager Charlie Manuel has to find a cleanup hitter with Ryan Howard expected to miss the beginning of the season recovering from an Achilles injury, and he said his choice going into spring training is Hunter Pence.
Analysis: Pence either hit right in front of or right behind Howard after his acquisition from Houston last season and thrived in the Phillies lineup. He will miss Howard's lineup protection, but might only have to play a month without Howard. In the meantime, Pence should get plenty of RBI chances batting cleanup, and he will still have plenty of lineup protection without Howard. Look to Pence in the early rounds of Fantasy drafts.

Jason Vargas
Vargas expected to pitch in A's series
Jason Vargas, SP, SEA
2/12/2012
News: Mariners manager Eric Wedge hinted Sunday that ace Felix Hernandez and Jason Vargas are the leading candidates to start the team's first two games against the A's in Japan. "That's one of the reasons we're here early, to make sure we get Felix ready and we're probably looking at Vargas right now in regard to the first couple games," Wedge said, as reported by MLB.com. "It is a little odd, but that's OK. That's part of it. We're professionals here and we have to get multiple starters prepared for the regular season. It's not just about those two guys, it's about everybody else as well. We've got a lot of starting pitchers here in camp and we'll see how it plays out. I'm looking forward to the competition."
Analysis: Believe it or not, but Vargas is arguably the M's second-best pitcher heading into spring training. He has been a steady part of the M's rotation the last two seasons. He is 19-25 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 63 starts since the beginning of the 2010 campaign. However, he is not a dominant pitcher and has weak strikeout totals, so Vargas is nothing more than a low-end Fantasy SP on Draft Day.

 
 
 
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