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Al Melchior

By the Numbers: Darrell! Darrell!

By | Special to CBSSports.com


The most popular waiver acquisition in AL-only leagues this week is Tampa starter Andy Sonnanstine. Back in March, I tabbed Sonnanstine as a candidate for a sizable ERA decrease. After seven starts, he has followed through, chipping more than a run off his ERA and, as a bonus, dropping his WHIP from 1.36 to 1.25. For those hesitant to claim him because of his 4.6 K/9 rate, remember that last year his rate was a respectable 6.7. With a decent history of getting strikeouts and consistently excellent control, Sonnanstine should pay dividends for his growing number of owners.

American League owners were busy picking up other young, rising stars, but one new addition to the Most Added list is hardly a phenom. Darrell Rasner's appearances on this list and on the mound at Yankee Stadium are improbable, yet there he is. Should he appear on your roster as well? Read on.

First, though, two quick notes. Starting this week, players who have just been placed on or activated from the disabled list will not be included in the rankings for these Most Added/Most Dropped analyses. Also, all data presented in the tables are statistics to date as of May 6.

Guys in demand

Darrell Rasner, SP, N.Y. Yankees
Week 6 Ownership: 0 percent
Week 7 Ownership: 30 percent
Rank in AL-only Most Added: 2nd
The Skinny: One day you are toiling in Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre, the next you are in 30 percent of AL-only Fantasy leagues on CBSSports.com. How did Rasner achieve his overnight popularity? By donning pinstripes and tossing six nice innings against the struggling Mariners. Rasner has actually pitched fairly well in 58-plus major league innings and has also posted impressive minor league numbers. For the most part, he's been a bit old at each minor league level, so those stats are not the best indicator of his future major league fortunes. At this point, put Rasner on your Scout Team but not on your roster, because better pitchers, such as Gavin Floyd and Kevin Slowey, are still available in many AL-only leagues.

Year Team BB/9 K/9 HR/9 H/BIP ERC
2005 Harrisburg (Double-A) 1.7 5.7 0.6 N/A N/A
2006 Columbus (Triple-A) 1.7 7.2 0.6 N/A N/A
2007 N.Y. Yankees 2.9 4.0 1.5 29% 5.56

Jeff Clement, C, Seattle
Week 6 Ownership: 18 percent
Week 7 Ownership: 33 percent
Rank in AL-only Most Added: 5th (tied)
The Skinny: Even if Kenji Johjima's power decides to return from its vacation, it shouldn't matter to Clement. He is getting a chance at regular playing time as the Mariners' DH. Though he is off to a slow start, his minor league numbers say he is ready. He makes contact, he takes pitches and he can flat out crush the ball. Clement is a great pickup if you can reserve him while he works out the kinks. Even if you can't, he is still one of the best catching options available in most leagues.

Year Team Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP
2006 Tacoma (Triple-A) 6% 22% 0.090 31%
2007 Tacoma (Triple-A) 12% 19% 0.222 30%
2008 Tacoma (Triple-A) 22% 15% 0.295 43%

Others drawing interest

Rank Player Week 6 ownership Week 7 ownership Percentage change
1 Andy Sonnanstine, SP, Tampa Bay 27% 63% 36%
3 Greg Smith, SP, Oakland 44% 70% 26%
4 Carlos Quentin, OF, Chicago White Sox 75% 93% 18%
5 Nick Adenhart, SP, L.A. Angels 6% 21% 15%

The guys dropping like flies

Rafael Betancourt, RP, Cleveland
Week 6 Ownership: 69 percent
Week 7 Ownership: 56 percent
Rank in AL-only Most Dropped: 1st
The Skinny: The rap on Betancourt is that he is only effective in the setup role, but he was struggling even before Eric Wedge made him the closer. Betancourt's main problem has been the four home runs he has given up in just 14 2/3 innings. Despite the 5.52 ERA, there is good news: his strikeout and walk totals are in line with his usual lofty standards. If you are rostering Betancourt to get his saves, then whether or not he recovers from his gopheritis is a moot point, as Joe Borowski will reclaim the closer's role soon. Normally, though, Betancourt would be a good source for ERA and WHIP, particularly in deeper leagues. If this is your reason for owning him, then dropping him at this early stage would be an overreaction. Just keep you eye on his HR/9 rate. If it doesn't improve by the time Borowski returns, it is probably best to drop him then.

Year Team BB/9 K/9 HR/9 H/BIP ERC
2006 Cleveland 1.8 7.6 1.1 28% 2.84
2007 Cleveland 1.0 9.1 0.5 24% 1.09
2008 Cleveland 1.3 9.2 2.6 36% 6.12

Others wearing roster repellant

Rank Player Week 6 ownership Week 7 ownership Percentage change
2 Luke Scott, OF, Baltimore 48% 39% - 11%
3 Kenji Johjima, C, Seattle 89% 81% - 8%
4 Brian Bannister, SP, Kansas City 88% 81% - 7%
4 Edwin Jackson, SP, Tampa Bay 34% 27% - 7%

Glossary
Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James
Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James
Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30%
Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth
Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks)
Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.

 
 
 
Player News
Coco Crisp
Crisp moving over for Cespedes?
Coco Crisp, CF, OAK
10:13 AM
News: Sources have told FOXSports.com that the Athletics intend to start newly signed Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes in center field right away, which would move Coco Crisp over to left field and Seth Smith to DH. Cespedes is already 26 and has faced upper-level competition in Cuba, but some scouts think he could use some time in the minors to adjust to the U.S. game.
Analysis: None of these reports are coming directly from the Athletics, so you should consider them nothing more than speculation at this point. Still, speculation is better than nothing, and if Cespedes is in fact going to be on the opening day roster, then he might even be worth drafting in the middle rounds, given his upside. As for Crisp, moving to left field wouldn't have any real impact on his Fantasy value. The Athletics outfield is even more crowded with the Cespedes signing, but the team seems to consider Crisp a mainstay at the top of the lineup. Given his base-stealing ability and doubles pop, he's a worthy fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.
Ryan Braun
Braun will know fate by Feb. 24
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
10:03 AM
News: Monday came and went without a ruling on Brewers OF Ryan Braun's pending 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It was the 25th day since the three-man panel heard Braun's appeal. According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the panel was supposed to “make all reasonable efforts” to deliver a verdict within that period of time, but chairman Shyam Das was given an extension. A decision is expected before Braun reports to spring training on Feb. 24, but the exact date is unknown since the process is intended to be confidential.
Analysis: The panel's need for a lengthy deliberation is theoretically a good sign, but then again, since the process is usually confidential, we don't know how common such extensions are. Braun's case is said to be unique, but it might not make much of a difference to the panel. If you're drafting now, you should do so with the expectation that Braun will miss the first 50 games of the season, which could allow him to slip to the middle rounds in standard mixed leagues. If the appeal is upheld, though, he's suddenly back to being a first-rounder in Fantasy.
Josh Johnson
JJ: 'I feel great. No problems'
Josh Johnson, SP, MIA
2/13/2012
News: The Associated Press reports Marlins president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest said the team should be fully healthy heading into spring training. That includes ace Josh Johnson, who has been throwing off a mound after making only nine starts in 2011 because of right shoulder inflammation. "I feel great," Johnson said. "No problems. I haven't really been sore yet, and I've been letting it go." The Sports Xchange reported over the weekend that Johnson arrived to the team's spring training complex in Jupiter, Fla., on Feb. 9 and threw his first bullpen session of the year in Florida on Feb. 10.
Analysis: The fact we hear JJ talking about his promising progress is very encouraging. Now, he just has to avoid setbacks and stay healthy for an entire season. Fantasy owners do have to be aware of the risk of drafting him. Of course his potential makes it worth it, but JJ has made it past 30 starts just once in his career. Look to Johnson as more of a No. 2 Fantasy SP on Draft Day, but clearly he has the potential to be your ace if he can stay healthy.
Ike Davis
Davis 'good to go' as camp nears
Ike Davis, 1B, NYM
2/13/2012
News: The New York Post reports Mets 1B Ike Davis said he is "good to go" as he arrived to spring training on Monday. Davis who missed most of last season with an ankle injury said he no longer thinks about his injury. He elected not to have surgery and chose to rehab the injury instead. “It’s great to know I’m training for a season rather than training to see if I can get back on the field or have to have surgery,” Davis said. “I’ve been fine for a while now, so it’s what I expected. But it’s good to finally hit on the field and get this under my belt.” Davis might see more at-bats this spring as he tries to make up for lost time. “I have more of a drive and a want this year,” Davis said. “I always had it, but I never really saw the other side, when the game isn’t there. I know to take it slow. I have to get back into the rhythm of playing, but I’ve got plenty of time. It’s going to come back.”
Analysis: We really hope Davis is past his ankle problems like he says he is because he is one of the Mets' top offensive players when active. As productive as he was before the injury last year, Davis is a potential bargain with a middle-to-late-round pick and will only move up the draft boards with a strong spring. Continue to track his progress.
Roy Oswalt
Oswalt waiting to sign with Texas?
Roy Oswalt, SP, PHI
2/13/2012
News: The Cincinnati Enquirer reports Reds GM Walt Jocketty said he hasn't had contact with Roy Oswalt's agents in the last week, and Jocketty offered up his own opinion on the Oswalt sweepstakes. “I think he’s waiting for Texas to clear money,” Jocketty said.
Analysis: It's interesting to hear Jocketty say Oswalt wants to sign with Texas. At least it's a legit reason why the veteran right-hander hasn't signed with a team yet, despite being linked to the Reds and Cardinals. Oswalt is likely going to sign somewhere before the start of the 2012 season and should be in a rotation. Consider Oswalt more of a mid-to-late-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day. Don't forget about his chronic back problems.
Johan Santana
Santana looks 'great' playing catch
Johan Santana, SP, NYM
2/13/2012
News: The Wall Street Journal reports Mets SP Johan Santana (shoulder) played catch from 175 feet Monday. Manager Terry Collins said Santana looked "great" and he hopes the left-hander will throw off a mound by the end of the week. “I think I’ll be on the mound Thursday or Friday and we’ll see where we’re at,” Santana told the New York Post. “But I’m making progress and finally getting into a routine that will take me all the way to spring training and the regular season.” Santana would like to be ready by opening day, but he doesn't consider it a critical date. “Time will tell if I get there,” Santana said. “We’ll see once I compete. I have to get some competition and see how my arm and whole body reacts to it. When I get on the mound soon, I should be fine when spring training starts. I’m worried more about my mechanics and delivery more than anything. That’s the point I’m at. My biggest concern will always be my health, but it’s just a matter of time. I just want to compete.”
Analysis: Collins' assessment of Santana sounds like cautious optimism. After all it was just catch. Santana has bigger hurdles to clear in hopes of pitching for the first time since the 2010 season. Santana is coming off a serious shoulder injury and who knows if he can return to the dominant arm he once was. Fantasy owners should bear in mind that Chien-Ming Wang, who underwent the same procedure, needed two years to make it back to the majors, so Santana could wind up providing far fewer than 25 starts -- which is the Mets' goal for the lefty this season. Because of the playing time risk, he is a late-round option in mixed leagues at best.
Seth Smith
Cespedes to bump Smith?
Seth Smith, RF, OAK
2/13/2012
News: Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes and the Oakland Athletics have agreed to a $36 million, four-year contract. Agent Adam Katz confirmed Monday the sides had reached agreement, with details still to be finalized. Cespedes' arrival means the A's could eventually bump Seth Smith to designated hitter.
Analysis: We will have to wait and see what happens when Cespedes finally arrives at A's camp, but the speculation is that the A's outfield alignment will eventually be Josh Reddick in right field, Coco Crisp in center field and Cespedes in left, which is where Smith is currently penciled in as the starter. But the A's could use a rotation at DH, which would still allow Smith to see regular at-bats, if Cespedes doesn't have to begin the year in the minors, which remains an option as well. Smith struggles against left-handed pitchers, so he might still be in a platoon situation like he was with the Rockies. Smith remains more of a late-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.
Mike Napoli
Napoli's ankle still an issue
Mike Napoli, C, TEX
2/13/2012
News: ESPN.com reports Rangers catcher Mike Napoli said his injured left ankle is progressing, but he is still not 100 percent. Napoli turned his ankle in the World Series against the Cardinals last year. "I think I’m close," Napoli said. "I’m not really going to know until I get into the wear and tear of spring training and catching all the time. But I've been feeling good and getting better day by day." Napoli said he has been running on the ankle, and he is also hitting and throwing without pain. However, he is still concerned about how it will hold up with the constant squatting and baseball activity. "But I'm trying not to do that all the time so I'm not depending on that," Napoli said. "I'm working on getting my little muscles stronger."
Analysis: The Dallas Morning News reports GM Jon Daniels said exams by team physician Keith Meister said Napoli's ankle shows no structural damage, but Napoli is still experiencing soreness. "The fact he's still feeling it a few months later speaks to what he went through to play the rest of Game 6 and go back out for Game 7," Daniels said. "It was about as bad as it looked to the rest of us." You have to wonder if Napoli can't shake this injury if it will play into how much time he gets behind the plate. Nonetheless, if Napoli catches less that just means he will likely see more PT at DH and first base. The Rangers aren't going to take his bat out of the lineup. Napoli remains a top 5 Fantasy catcher on Draft Day.
Bobby Abreu
Abreu to have to earn PT
Bobby Abreu, LF, LAA
12:44 AM
News: According to the Los Angeles Times, Angels general manager Jerry Dipoto told OF Bobby Abreu during a phone call on Monday that the veteran will be given every opportunity to earn playing time during the spring. With the offseason addition of Albert Pujols, Mark Trumbo and Kendrys Morales will vie with Abreu for at-bats at the DH spot in 2012. Dipoto also added that he does not plan on trading the 37-year-old. “Bobby is an Angel,” Dipoto said. “Right now, he fits on our 25-man roster, in our clubhouse, on our team. Where he is in eight weeks is predicated on how he’s playing and everyone’s health. We have some unknowns with the health of Kendrys and the progress of Mark, but we know Bobby is healthy. As I told him, if he swings the bat like he can, we’re going to find a way to play him.”
Analysis: Abreu played in just 28 games in the outfield last season so seeing time at DH is really the only way he is going to play consistently in 2012. Things don't look good for him at this point but if Morales is still unable to return from his broken ankle, he could end up platooning with Trumbo. Trumbo is also a candidate to be traded so keep an eye on the situation going forward. Abreu batted .253 with eight homers, 60 RBI and 21 stolen bases last season and would be a worthwhile pick in deeper mixed leagues if he sees everyday at-bats for the Angels.
Hong-Chih Kuo
M's to be careful with Kuo
Hong-Chih Kuo, P, SEA
2/13/2012
News: MLB.com reports Mariners RP Hong-Chih Kuo threw his first bullpen session of the spring on Sunday, but the team will proceed with caution with Kuo, who is coming off October elbow surgery. "We've got to keep an eye on him and work to keep him healthy and available for us," manager Eric Wedge said. "He was dominant a couple years ago. He's had some injuries in the past, but he feels good now. It's a great opportunity for him as well as so many others. But when you look at his upside and what he's capable of doing when he's healthy, we're hoping we can keep him there."
Analysis: Kuo definitely showed promise during his tenure with the Dodgers from 2005-11. However, he had a rocky career that was filled with arm injuries and inconsistencies. He won't close for Seattle, but the Mariners hope he can be a setup man for closer Brandon League. Kuo remains just a low-end Fantasy RP in leagues that use middle relievers.
 
 
 
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