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Eric Mack

Week 7 Fantasy Stockwatch

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Every Monday we'll take a look at the Fantasy Baseball gainers and decliners in our Fantasy Stockwatch.

This week's potential 'Buy Guys'

SP Aaron Laffey, CLE
How in the world of Fantasy have owners not caught on to Laffey's 14 consecutive scoreless innings? He is owned in only 13 percent of CBSSports.com's leagues right now. In Laffey's 20 innings this season he has given up runs (four) in only one of them -- the final inning of his first start against the Yankees. Comparable rookie arm Greg Smith is currently owned in 76 percent of leagues. Although the A's are winning now and the Indians are not, you could look for Laffey to outproduce Smith. Smith might be a better long-term prospect, but in yearly leagues the A's offense will cool, while Laffey's Indians figure to get hot.
SP Clayton Kershaw, LAD
Our weekly Kershaw update. His last outing came in relief, but he starts Monday night in Double-A and can make himself a candidate for the vacant No. 5 starter's spot with the Dodgers on Saturday, May 17. Esteban Loaiza (shoulder) or Jason Schmidt (shoulder) won't be able to return until at least June and the Dodgers seem to like Hong-Chih Kuo in relief. Take that flier immediately on Kershaw in any league, especially if he has a nice six-inning outing Monday night.
OF Chase Headley, SD
This is a guy we figured had a good enough spring to make the woeful Padres outfield out of camp, but he wound up going back to Triple-A to work on his defense and hit just .242 in April. He is hitting .400 in May now, though, and the last-place Padres are showing some impatience with their veterans in the majors. They sent out pricey Jim Edmonds this weekend already. Headley's hot streak, the Padres' struggles and his status as a potential impact bat on a floundering team combine to make him a must-add flier in deeper NL-only leagues right now. He is not quite Kershaw exciting, but there is room for him in San Diego sooner than June 1.
OF Milton Bradley, TEX
We wrote this entry with the expectation of a news story coming out that Bradley is headed to the 15-day DL because he broke his hand brushing his teeth in the morning. But Bradley is strangely healthy right now, having played in 10 consecutive games in May. He could always hit and is sitting at .311 on the season with a .424 OBP and a .529 SLUG. As surprising as his games played streak, his ownership only finally climbed over 50 percent Monday. It could rise all the way to the 80s if he can stay healthy. Consider him in any league when he is going well and you have a spot open in the outfield.
SP Mike Mussina, NYY
This might surprise you more than it does us, but Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy were Fantasy cannon fodder to start the season and Moose has won his past four starts. In fact, Moose hasn't lost since Manny Ramirez used him as a BP pitcher and prompted knee-jerk Hank Steinbrenner to suggest he wanted Moose to pitch more like 40-something Jamie Moyer. Moose's response? "I don't have a left-handed glove." Mussina will be a two-start pitcher in Fantasy Week 8 (May 19-25), an excellent time to take the flier on him in the 40-some percent leagues he is available in.

Some more 'Buy Guys' we couldn't fit in: SP Ian Kennedy, SP; 2B Howie Kendrick, LAA; RP Ryan Franklin, STL; 3B Blake DeWitt, LAD; C Chris Snyder, ARI; RP Guillermo Mota, MIL; RP Salomon Torres, MIL; RP David Riske, MIL; 1B Matt LaPorta, MIL; C Max Ramirez, TEX.

This week's potential 'Goodbye Guys'

RP Jason Isrinhausen, STL
OK, so we are a little late on the trigger on this one -- unlike last week's pre-emptive strike against Eric Gagne in this space. The most disconcerting to Izzy's Fantasy owners has to be the effectiveness of replacement closer Ryan Franklin. If Franklin doesn't fail as the closer, who is to say he can't keep the job for the rest of the season? Despite a bad September last year in his first full season as a reliever, Franklin was remarkably consistent and reliable for the Cardinals. You can justify dropping Izzy in all mixed leagues right now.
SP Nick Adenhart, LAA
Here is a name we didn't think we would have to downgrade. John Lackey (triceps) is expected to return Sunday, though, and Adenhart has pitched like an arm that needs another few months back in Triple-A. We suppose we should have been warned by his 1-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the minors thus far this season, but we were sucked in by the hype. We are not giving up on Adenhart long term, but clearly he doesn't deserve to be on Fantasy rosters after his final start Monday night.
SP Max Scherzer, ARI
We said Scherzer would run alternately hot and cold, which was apparent in his two-start Fantasy Week 6 (May 5-11). Although he showed immense Fantasy potential in two of his three major league outings, the D-Backs are resigned to sending him to the bullpen when Doug Davis returns next week from thyroid cancer surgery. Now, we wouldn't necessarily dump him off your roster, because he can be impressive in Rotisserie as a reliever and could be a big-time stretch run starter in the Head-to-Head playoffs. He is a guy you will have to wait for a D-Backs injury before he is starting again, though.
SP Armando Galarraga, DET
Other than his last outing against the world champion Red Sox, Galarraga doesn't deserve to be the one dropped from the Tigers' rotation upon the return of Dontrelle Willis (knee) as soon as this weekend. But reports are that is the way the Tigers are leaning. Nate Robertson could still prove ineffective or needing a DL stint, but Galarraga (2-1, 3.07 ERA and 0.99 WHIP) looks like nothing more than a middle reliever for the deepest of leagues that use true middle men now.
OF Vernon Wells, TOR
We try to avoid the easy answer of posting injured players here, but this one is arguably the most costly hitter injury in Fantasy this season. It is frustrating to lose him for 6-to-8 weeks, but even more so when you consider he was just getting hot, hitting .387 in May after a sub-par April (.250). Only the losses of Alex Rodriguez and Troy Tulowitzki compare to Wells in Fantasy pertinence. Tulo wasn't hitting, though, and A-Rod should be back before June. Wells and Tulo might be out until the All-Star break and are extremely disappointing cuts in leagues without reserves and DL spots.

Some more 'Goodbye Guys' we couldn't fit in: SP Kei Igawa, NYY; RP Eric Gagne, MIL; SP Sidney Ponson, TEX; SP Jon Lieber, CHC.

Stock advisor

Alex Berkowitz, Brooklyn, N.Y.: I am in a 10-team Head-to-Head league that awards heavily for stolen bases. I have a pending trade offer where I would receive Jacoby Ellsbury for Geovany Soto. My other catcher is Victor Martinez, but Soto has done much more so far. My outfield corps is weak, and we start four outfielders. I have Ichiro Suzuki, Adam Dunn and Hideki Matsui in every day, and platoon between Jeremy Hermida and Delmon Young. Would you recommend that trade?

Emack: Soto is arguably the No. 1 catcher in Fantasy Baseball and Ellsbury still has to contend with Coco Crisp for starts. We say keep Soto right now. Trade V-Mart for a more elite outfielder, perhaps a Grady Sizemore?

Joe Dorneo, Springfield, N.J.: I am in standard 5x5 Rotisserie league: Would you trade Bobby Abreu for Robinson Cano? Secondly, what should I do with Andruw Jones, drop or hang on to him?

Emack: Yeah, buying low on Cano is a decent move with Abreu. Drop Jones. He looks like toast.

Stephen Chambers, Stratham, New Hampshire: I know Prince Fielder hasn't been hitting well, but I've stuck with him just because he might blow up at anytime. I may be giving up on him too early, but I have Conor Jackson sitting on my bench. Should I bench Fielder and start Jackson and wait for him to cool down, or should I still hope for a Fielder explosion?

Emack: Jackson is a candidate to start over Fielder in weeks where his team is scheduled for more games, but otherwise just ride Fielder right now.

Jeremiah J. Simpson, Denver: My final outfield spot is a toss-up between Garret Anderson and Jayson Werth. Who would you recommend starting? Also, at what point do you recommend benching Ryan Howard in favor of say an untested player like Daric Barton, even though Howard should be putting up far better numbers?

Emack: Werth is more intriguing here than Anderson at this point in their careers. Also, we wouldn't bench Howard, especially with the return of Jimmy Rollins likely to boast the RBI opportunities.

John, Cleveland: Who should I give up for Jake Peavy: Albert Pujols or Chipper Jones? I'm in a 10-team 5x5 Rotisserie league. I'm currently in first place, thanks mostly to my offense. I have been offered Peavy for Pujols. I'm considering it, since my staff is hurting in Ks, wins and WHIP. What I'm wondering is should I maybe consider offering Chipper for Peavy instead of Pujols. If I were to trade Pujols, I would have Carlos Guillen and Mike Jacobs to put in the 1B spot. If I trade Jones, I would have Guillen and Blalock (if he fully recovers) to plug in at third base. I know both Albert and Chipper have injury possibilities. And I'm kind of worried about changing anything with my offense since I would have Lackey coming back soon.

Emack: Insist on doing Jones for Peavy. Pitching is less important than hitting in Rotisserie -- mostly because it impacts your team rarely over once a week. Don't trade Pujols for any starting pitcher in Rotisserie. Also, we are not convinced Peavy will get enough run support to be the Fantasy ace he should be.

Mike Morcos, Aurora, Illinois: I am in a 5x5 Rotisserie league. I have very strong pitching (Ervin Santana, Chad Billingsly and Jon Lester on my bench). My starters are Aaron Harang, Brett Myers, Shaun Marcum and Fausto Carmona. I am looking at giving up Myers and Ryan Church for Matt Cain and B.J. Upton. I figure sell Church high and pick up stolen bases with Upton. If Cain gets hurt or falters, I still have a strong bench.

Emack: Myers and Church for Cain and Upton is a trade weighed heavily in your favor. Doubt he goes for it, but worth a shot, we suppose.

Karl: I play in a 5x5 Head-to-Head league. I am about average in most categories. I have been offered a trade that would give me Ryan J. Braun for Mariano Rivera. Rivera has been great this year, but I wonder how long he could keep it up. I could certainly use an upgrade at third, because I have Alex Gordon, who hasn't been great, and if I gave up Rivera I would probably lose saves in most weeks since my only other closers are Kerry Wood and Rafael Soriano (almost worthless). Does Braun still have good enough value to pull the trigger on this?

Emack: Heck, yes. After Sunday, it might be too late to buy low on Braun and sell high on Rivera.

You can e-mail Emack your Fantasy Baseball Stockwatch questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Stockwatch in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Coco Crisp
Crisp moving over for Cespedes?
Coco Crisp, CF, OAK
10:13 AM
News: Sources have told FOXSports.com that the Athletics intend to start newly signed Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes in center field right away, which would move Coco Crisp over to left field and Seth Smith to DH. Cespedes is already 26 and has faced upper-level competition in Cuba, but some scouts think he could use some time in the minors to adjust to the U.S. game.
Analysis: None of these reports are coming directly from the Athletics, so you should consider them nothing more than speculation at this point. Still, speculation is better than nothing, and if Cespedes is in fact going to be on the opening day roster, then he might even be worth drafting in the middle rounds, given his upside. As for Crisp, moving to left field wouldn't have any real impact on his Fantasy value. The Athletics outfield is even more crowded with the Cespedes signing, but the team seems to consider Crisp a mainstay at the top of the lineup. Given his base-stealing ability and doubles pop, he's a worthy fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Ryan Braun
Braun will know fate by Feb. 24
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
10:03 AM
News: Monday came and went without a ruling on Brewers OF Ryan Braun's pending 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It was the 25th day since the three-man panel heard Braun's appeal. According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the panel was supposed to “make all reasonable efforts” to deliver a verdict within that period of time, but chairman Shyam Das was given an extension. A decision is expected before Braun reports to spring training on Feb. 24, but the exact date is unknown since the process is intended to be confidential.
Analysis: The panel's need for a lengthy deliberation is theoretically a good sign, but then again, since the process is usually confidential, we don't know how common such extensions are. Braun's case is said to be unique, but it might not make much of a difference to the panel. If you're drafting now, you should do so with the expectation that Braun will miss the first 50 games of the season, which could allow him to slip to the middle rounds in standard mixed leagues. If the appeal is upheld, though, he's suddenly back to being a first-rounder in Fantasy.

Josh Johnson
JJ: 'I feel great. No problems'
Josh Johnson, SP, MIA
2/13/2012
News: The Associated Press reports Marlins president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest said the team should be fully healthy heading into spring training. That includes ace Josh Johnson, who has been throwing off a mound after making only nine starts in 2011 because of right shoulder inflammation. "I feel great," Johnson said. "No problems. I haven't really been sore yet, and I've been letting it go." The Sports Xchange reported over the weekend that Johnson arrived to the team's spring training complex in Jupiter, Fla., on Feb. 9 and threw his first bullpen session of the year in Florida on Feb. 10.
Analysis: The fact we hear JJ talking about his promising progress is very encouraging. Now, he just has to avoid setbacks and stay healthy for an entire season. Fantasy owners do have to be aware of the risk of drafting him. Of course his potential makes it worth it, but JJ has made it past 30 starts just once in his career. Look to Johnson as more of a No. 2 Fantasy SP on Draft Day, but clearly he has the potential to be your ace if he can stay healthy.

Ike Davis
Davis 'good to go' as camp nears
Ike Davis, 1B, NYM
2/13/2012
News: The New York Post reports Mets 1B Ike Davis said he is "good to go" as he arrived to spring training on Monday. Davis who missed most of last season with an ankle injury said he no longer thinks about his injury. He elected not to have surgery and chose to rehab the injury instead. “It’s great to know I’m training for a season rather than training to see if I can get back on the field or have to have surgery,” Davis said. “I’ve been fine for a while now, so it’s what I expected. But it’s good to finally hit on the field and get this under my belt.” Davis might see more at-bats this spring as he tries to make up for lost time. “I have more of a drive and a want this year,” Davis said. “I always had it, but I never really saw the other side, when the game isn’t there. I know to take it slow. I have to get back into the rhythm of playing, but I’ve got plenty of time. It’s going to come back.”
Analysis: We really hope Davis is past his ankle problems like he says he is because he is one of the Mets' top offensive players when active. As productive as he was before the injury last year, Davis is a potential bargain with a middle-to-late-round pick and will only move up the draft boards with a strong spring. Continue to track his progress.

Roy Oswalt
Oswalt waiting to sign with Texas?
Roy Oswalt, SP, PHI
2/13/2012
News: The Cincinnati Enquirer reports Reds GM Walt Jocketty said he hasn't had contact with Roy Oswalt's agents in the last week, and Jocketty offered up his own opinion on the Oswalt sweepstakes. “I think he’s waiting for Texas to clear money,” Jocketty said.
Analysis: It's interesting to hear Jocketty say Oswalt wants to sign with Texas. At least it's a legit reason why the veteran right-hander hasn't signed with a team yet, despite being linked to the Reds and Cardinals. Oswalt is likely going to sign somewhere before the start of the 2012 season and should be in a rotation. Consider Oswalt more of a mid-to-late-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day. Don't forget about his chronic back problems.

Johan Santana
Santana looks 'great' playing catch
Johan Santana, SP, NYM
2/13/2012
News: The Wall Street Journal reports Mets SP Johan Santana (shoulder) played catch from 175 feet Monday. Manager Terry Collins said Santana looked "great" and he hopes the left-hander will throw off a mound by the end of the week. “I think I’ll be on the mound Thursday or Friday and we’ll see where we’re at,” Santana told the New York Post. “But I’m making progress and finally getting into a routine that will take me all the way to spring training and the regular season.” Santana would like to be ready by opening day, but he doesn't consider it a critical date. “Time will tell if I get there,” Santana said. “We’ll see once I compete. I have to get some competition and see how my arm and whole body reacts to it. When I get on the mound soon, I should be fine when spring training starts. I’m worried more about my mechanics and delivery more than anything. That’s the point I’m at. My biggest concern will always be my health, but it’s just a matter of time. I just want to compete.”
Analysis: Collins' assessment of Santana sounds like cautious optimism. After all it was just catch. Santana has bigger hurdles to clear in hopes of pitching for the first time since the 2010 season. Santana is coming off a serious shoulder injury and who knows if he can return to the dominant arm he once was. Fantasy owners should bear in mind that Chien-Ming Wang, who underwent the same procedure, needed two years to make it back to the majors, so Santana could wind up providing far fewer than 25 starts -- which is the Mets' goal for the lefty this season. Because of the playing time risk, he is a late-round option in mixed leagues at best.

Seth Smith
Cespedes to bump Smith?
Seth Smith, RF, OAK
2/13/2012
News: Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes and the Oakland Athletics have agreed to a $36 million, four-year contract. Agent Adam Katz confirmed Monday the sides had reached agreement, with details still to be finalized. Cespedes' arrival means the A's could eventually bump Seth Smith to designated hitter.
Analysis: We will have to wait and see what happens when Cespedes finally arrives at A's camp, but the speculation is that the A's outfield alignment will eventually be Josh Reddick in right field, Coco Crisp in center field and Cespedes in left, which is where Smith is currently penciled in as the starter. But the A's could use a rotation at DH, which would still allow Smith to see regular at-bats, if Cespedes doesn't have to begin the year in the minors, which remains an option as well. Smith struggles against left-handed pitchers, so he might still be in a platoon situation like he was with the Rockies. Smith remains more of a late-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Mike Napoli
Napoli's ankle still an issue
Mike Napoli, C, TEX
2/13/2012
News: ESPN.com reports Rangers catcher Mike Napoli said his injured left ankle is progressing, but he is still not 100 percent. Napoli turned his ankle in the World Series against the Cardinals last year. "I think I’m close," Napoli said. "I’m not really going to know until I get into the wear and tear of spring training and catching all the time. But I've been feeling good and getting better day by day." Napoli said he has been running on the ankle, and he is also hitting and throwing without pain. However, he is still concerned about how it will hold up with the constant squatting and baseball activity. "But I'm trying not to do that all the time so I'm not depending on that," Napoli said. "I'm working on getting my little muscles stronger."
Analysis: The Dallas Morning News reports GM Jon Daniels said exams by team physician Keith Meister said Napoli's ankle shows no structural damage, but Napoli is still experiencing soreness. "The fact he's still feeling it a few months later speaks to what he went through to play the rest of Game 6 and go back out for Game 7," Daniels said. "It was about as bad as it looked to the rest of us." You have to wonder if Napoli can't shake this injury if it will play into how much time he gets behind the plate. Nonetheless, if Napoli catches less that just means he will likely see more PT at DH and first base. The Rangers aren't going to take his bat out of the lineup. Napoli remains a top 5 Fantasy catcher on Draft Day.

Bobby Abreu
Abreu to have to earn PT
Bobby Abreu, LF, LAA
12:44 AM
News: According to the Los Angeles Times, Angels general manager Jerry Dipoto told OF Bobby Abreu during a phone call on Monday that the veteran will be given every opportunity to earn playing time during the spring. With the offseason addition of Albert Pujols, Mark Trumbo and Kendrys Morales will vie with Abreu for at-bats at the DH spot in 2012. Dipoto also added that he does not plan on trading the 37-year-old. “Bobby is an Angel,” Dipoto said. “Right now, he fits on our 25-man roster, in our clubhouse, on our team. Where he is in eight weeks is predicated on how he’s playing and everyone’s health. We have some unknowns with the health of Kendrys and the progress of Mark, but we know Bobby is healthy. As I told him, if he swings the bat like he can, we’re going to find a way to play him.”
Analysis: Abreu played in just 28 games in the outfield last season so seeing time at DH is really the only way he is going to play consistently in 2012. Things don't look good for him at this point but if Morales is still unable to return from his broken ankle, he could end up platooning with Trumbo. Trumbo is also a candidate to be traded so keep an eye on the situation going forward. Abreu batted .253 with eight homers, 60 RBI and 21 stolen bases last season and would be a worthwhile pick in deeper mixed leagues if he sees everyday at-bats for the Angels.

Hong-Chih Kuo
M's to be careful with Kuo
Hong-Chih Kuo, P, SEA
2/13/2012
News: MLB.com reports Mariners RP Hong-Chih Kuo threw his first bullpen session of the spring on Sunday, but the team will proceed with caution with Kuo, who is coming off October elbow surgery. "We've got to keep an eye on him and work to keep him healthy and available for us," manager Eric Wedge said. "He was dominant a couple years ago. He's had some injuries in the past, but he feels good now. It's a great opportunity for him as well as so many others. But when you look at his upside and what he's capable of doing when he's healthy, we're hoping we can keep him there."
Analysis: Kuo definitely showed promise during his tenure with the Dodgers from 2005-11. However, he had a rocky career that was filled with arm injuries and inconsistencies. He won't close for Seattle, but the Mariners hope he can be a setup man for closer Brandon League. Kuo remains just a low-end Fantasy RP in leagues that use middle relievers.

 
 
 
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