Fantasy closers are always full of drama
We're nearly one quarter of the way through the season -- do you know where your closers are?
In an era where instant information is available and fans have a voice online like never before, the always precarious closer position becomes even riskier. Teams used to be able to let closers work through their problems, giving them two or three innings to shake off a two-run homer, allowing them a chance to fix their mistakes. That's no longer the situation.
Case in point: Who is the all-time leader in blown saves? More on that later.
It's really only the past two or three decades that closers have become fashionable in the majors, as teams began to use situation specialists. But nowadays, when a closer gets rocked for three earned runs in two-thirds of an inning, and he's getting paid a salary in the eight-digit category, management and fans both voice their displeasure in a handful of ways. Players are people too -- and eventually a shaky pitcher getting raked over the coals in the media could let that affect him even more, which makes his production even worse.
And a closer that loses confidence is a good middle reliever waiting to happen.
When talking about the closer position after six weeks, we've seen quite a few big stories that show the instability at this position. Let's discuss them like mature adults, rather than scream and pull out our hair -- like we did when they first occurred. This position has more open-ended cliffhangers than a soap opera.
As the Closer's World Turns
From Brad Lidge saving nine games without even allowing an earned run to Jonathan Papelbon showing chinks in his armor with two consecutive blown saves, the closer position has kept us on our toes.
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| Ryan Franklin has gone from promising starter in Seattle to closer in St. Louis. (US Presswire) |
So since Friday, [inhale] Ryan Franklin, Guillermo Mota, David Riske, Brian Shouse, Russ Springer and Salomon Torres became candidates for saves in Fantasy play [exhale].
The e-mails to our Fantasy inbox came immediately: "Do I hold onto Isringhausen?" ... "Since you can't spell Gagne without 'gag,' should I cut him?" ... "Why aren't you wearing your hat backwards in your byline pic anymore?"
Let's start with Izzy. Manager Tony La Russa said that Isringhausen is still going to pitch some important innings, but he's going to be held out of the ninth for a while. Unfortunately for his Fantasy owners, Izzy hurt his right hand after a short temper tantrum Friday, when he blew his majors-leading fifth save. He pitched a scoreless eighth on Monday, allowing just one hit. The veteran still has talent (he closed out five games without allowing a run to start the season) and La Russa doesn't have the luxury of waiting too long. Franklin has been fantastic in a setup role, co-leading the majors in holds with teammate Kyle McLellan at 12. But this situation sounds very temporary.
The Gagne situation also sounds relatively temporary -- although Gagne hasn't come close to producing like Isringhausen in the past couple seasons. Gagne has nine saves, but he has been a blown save waiting to happen since his first game in his new uniform, when he allowed three earned runs to the Cubs. At least Izzy has posted 30-saves in four consecutive seasons. Gagne signed a one-year, $10-million contract with the Brewers after pitching sketchy setup ball for the Red Sox late last summer. Milwaukee is already paying Ben Sheets over $12 million to scare them with every start -- they can't afford their second-most expensive player (Gagne) to pitch the seventh inning. I think he returns within a couple weeks. Meanwhile, you saw lefty specialist Brian Shouse post a one-out save and have his ownership double to two percent because people had a knee-jerk reaction. Guillermo Mota and Salomon Torres have closer experience, so expect them to pick up some saves for now.
General Reliever Hospital
The pitcher that shares Gagne's NL record of 55 saves in a season is John Smoltz. The only pitcher in MLB history with 200 wins and 150 saves. Once he comes back from a shoulder injury, he said he wants to close games out rather than start. This should be best for him and the Braves -- and while Fantasy owners cringe at first, losing out on a possible 15-win season, this will be best for them also because he thinks he'll stay healthy this way.
Most arm injuries occur after a pitcher's arm gets tired. Smoltz believes that by throwing 20 pitches in just one inning a game, it will keep him from overthrowing in the sixth inning, after he has already reached 90 pitches. Once Smoltz comes back later this month or in early June, don't expect him to throw in back-to-back games early on. He'll be testing the limits on his shoulder. So Rafael Soriano, who is still sidelined with an elbow injury, should get back with the Braves sooner, and he could get some leftover save chances.
One thing to remember about Atlanta is that they, along with Detroit, are last in the majors with just five saves. And only Cincinnati (six) has had fewer save chances than the Braves' eight. That ranking will change as the Braves begin to win more one-run games though.
Cleveland's Joe Borowski went on the DL two weeks into the season with a strained triceps muscle -- an injury he felt in spring training, but tried to pitch through it anyway. He started the season horribly, but the injury likely had a large part to do with that. Manager Eric Wedge has already said that he'll return to his closer's job once he comes off the DL in the next couple of weeks. Rafael Betancourt, the player expected to steal the job away from him, has two saves, one blown save, two losses and a 15.43 ERA in his past six outings.
Joe-Bo led the AL with 45 saves in 2007, and his Fantasy ownership has dipped from 85 percent in Week 2 to just 28 percent in Week 7. If you have DL spots -- or even some reserve spots available to stash someone -- give Borowski a look. This is a playoff caliber team that could give him a ton of saves chances if he's healthy again.
Telenovellas
These are the lesser-known closer stories of some lower-echelon teams that really only their fans (and Fantasy owners) are watching closely.
What does Baltimore, Kansas City, Oakland, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Tampa Bay and Texas have in common? All seven of these teams were expected to win fewer than 70 games this season -- and they each currently have a closer ranked in the top 15 with eight or more saves.
On the other hand, look at some of the teams entering the season that were supposed to lose fewer than 70 games: Atlanta, Cleveland, Detroit, the Mets and San Diego. They each have seven or fewer saves as a team, ranking them in the major's bottom 10.
Troy Percival, who the Cardinals probably wish they kept and the Braves wished they signed, has nine saves in 10 chances ... George Sherrill went from lefty specialist in Seattle to the closer in Baltimore in the offseason, posting 13 saves to sit behind Francisco Rodriguez's league-leading 15 ... Brian Wilson has 11 saves for his Giants team -- which has just 16 wins ... Matt Capps has nine saves in the Pirates' 18 wins.
The point being that decent closers on bad teams can still generate decent saves numbers. But it obviously has to be an uncontested job, which it is for each of the above four pitchers.
Last season, there were three closers that came out of nowhere (undrafted in most mixed leagues) to post 30 saves -- Jeremy Accardo, Kevin Gregg and David Weathers. This year, we're already looking at two players that could be in that group: Washington's Jon Rauch and Colorado's Brian Fuentes.
Are you like me? Barely keeping your head above water in saves with just two closers like Bobby Jenks and Todd Jones? Don't worry -- if the rest of the season is anything like the first six weeks, you'll get your chance at more closers. Sixty-eight pitchers have already posted at least one save this season.
The Young and the Rest
Before the season started, Heath Bell, Pat Neshek and Carlos Marmol were all considered closers in waiting. But Bell hasn't been close to the same pitcher he was a year ago, when he led all relievers with 102 strikeouts. Neshek's season ended early and Tommy John surgery is a possibility. And Marmol is stuck behind Kerry Wood, who has settled down with three straight saves and only one baserunner allowed in his past five outings. Future closers have become a tough commodity to predict.
Jonathan Broxton is still a bulldog with a Rod Beck ferocity minus the Fu Manchu and the mullet. He got blasted on Saturday (one out, six earned runs) to bring his ERA up from under 2.00 to above 5.00 in about 15 minutes on the mound. He'll be fine -- and that outing might have helped your chances of acquiring him now, before the ancient Takashi Saito (38) goes on the DL.
An e-mailer asked me about Chris Perez, who is pitching well with Triple-A Memphis, and if he would get a chance to close for La Russa's Cardinals. The 22-year-old reliever has eight saves so far, tied for third in the Pacific Coast League. But as Eric Mack has pointed out in the past, minor league closers don't get called up to be major league closers. For instance, Jose Arredondo was just called up by the Angels -- and he's leading the PCL with 10 saves. He's going to pitch middle relief in Anaheim.
Guys behind the guy behind the guy
Rafael Perez sits behind both Borowski and Betancourt on the Indians' depth chart at closer. But if Borowski can't get healthy, and Betancourt can't handle the duties, he could be in line for second-half saves. Adam Miller (elbow) can reach 100 mph on the gun, and he might also find himself in the bullpen later this year helping out the Indians.
Clayton Kershaw now has his own version of The Joba Rules, called The Clayton Decree. He'll be limited to 25 innings a month, which means he could be used in relief at different points. The Dodgers could also end up using him in their bullpen later, putting him behind Saito and Broxton. Jon Meloan was the Dodgers' future closer, but with Broxton in tow, and starting pitching so valuable, L.A. chose to convert Meloan into a starter. He's currently 2-3 with a 3.73 ERA at Triple-A Las Vegas, but it's his strikeout-per-inning dominance that has you excited.
Max Scherzer will probably stick in Arizona's bullpen now that Doug Davis (thyroid cancer) is ready to return to the rotation. If he does land in the middle innings, he might be someone the D-Backs turn to later in the season if anything happens to Brandon Lyon and/or Tony A. Pena.
So looking back at all the names mentioned above, it's easy to see how a Fantasy owner can get lost in the drama that is the baseball closer position. But as I mentioned at the start, patience is thin during this information age, and it's unlikely we'll ever see a closer get enough chances to beat Rich Gossage's MLB record of 112 blown saves.
And the Goose is about to be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame on July 27. Not bad for a guy that can't hold a lead!
2008 Tout Wars
- Tout Wars: Main website
- Tout Wars: Mixed Standings and Rosters
- Tout Wars: AL-only Standings and Rosters
- Tout Wars: NL-only Standings and Rosters
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