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Michael Hurcomb

Dear Mr. Fantasy: Should I add or should I drop?

By | Fantasy Writer


Can you believe that we are already seven weeks into the Fantasy Baseball season? How time flies.

It's great to see that our baseball feedback forum is still being swamped with questions, so keep 'em coming. Without your questions, poor Scott E. White Jr. might be forced to beg for his meal money.

I added Nate McLouth in all of my leagues after the first week of the season, and he has yet to slow down. Do you think he will eventually regress, and if so, should I sell him high? -- Ryne Branum

MH: There is no need to sell high on McLouth. The only issue that really concerns me is that McLouth plays for a potential last-place team and certain RBI situations might not present themselves. McLouth is a pretty good hitter and can fill the stat sheet like a Grady Sizemore. McLouth hit a lot of doubles in the minors and now they just seem to be flying out of the ballpark. The Pirates coaching staff doesn't think he will slow down because he has a quick, compact swing which allows him to jump on pitches. They compare him in some regards to a young Barry Bonds when he had a toothpick frame during his Pirate years.

I have Jason Isringhausen as one of my closers, and now I am forced to bench him since he has been demoted from the closer's role. Is it worth holding on to him in case he is able to reclaim his job? Do I trade him for close to nothing or just drop him? Please help. -- Bob Smith, Madison, N.H.

MH: The Cardinals hope Isringhausen won't be out of the closer's role for long. They are giving him a "mental break" in hopes of restoring his confidence. Manager Tony La Russa says it takes a "special guy" to work the ninth inning and added Isringhausen is "that guy." If you can afford to stash Izzy, then that is the best remedy. If you are in a shallow league and need the roster spot, then drop him for another closer. It's hard to possibly survive a month without saves in Fantasy. Entertaining a trade is also reasonable, but the return will be minimal, so hitting the waiver wire seems a more logical choice if it is absolutely necessary.

It's gotten so bad for Pronk that he's now showing up on some waiver wires. (US Presswire)  
It's gotten so bad for Pronk that he's now showing up on some waiver wires. (US Presswire)  
Somebody in my league dropped Travis Hafner. Is he worth picking up and plopping on my bench until he gets better or do you think he is not going to improve? -- Jonathan Cottrell, Teaneck, N.J.

MH: First off, I gotta give some love to Teaneck. My mother is a Teaneck native and I wouldn't be here today without her (ironic this comes on the heels of Mother's Day). So, wup, wup for Teaneck. Secondly, without a doubt add Hafner to your bench. Clearly, he has frustrated Fantasy owners hovering close to the Mendoza Line. But the guy still has the potential to hit 20-plus homers and drive in 100-plus runs. If you can afford to stash that kind of potential on your bench, then do it. Hafner, much like Jason Isringhausen and Ryan Howard, are battling "mental" demons and their confidence has been shot. Hafner is hard at work fixing the problem, and Indians manager Eric Wedge has the utmost belief Pronk will turn it around. Fantasy owners should have the same conviction. Hafner is hitting just .191 against right-handers as opposed to .285 against lefties. If he solves his issues against right-handers, the sky is the limit.

I traded Edinson Volquez for Justin Verlander after four weeks. I figured Verlander would right the ship and become the Cy Young caliber pitcher he's always been. I figured Volquez wasn't this good. Did I make the right decision? Verlander looks awful. Is he cooked? -- Adam Hunter, New York, N.Y.

MH: No way. This turkey is not done. Verlander's biggest problem right now is falling behind hitters and issuing too many free passes. He has walked 21 in 49 innings. He walked a total of 127 batters his previous two seasons over 387 2/3 innings. Hitters are starting to be a little more patient with the hard-throwing Verlander these days, and some of his old tricks aren't working as well. The Tigers, as well as Verlander, are pleased with the way he is throwing the ball, he is just a bit unlucky. It’s hard to give up on the potential ace of one of the best teams in baseball.

I just made a trade for Rick Ankiel as a fourth outfielder in a standard 14-team league. I see incredible potential in him. I'm thinking possibly 30-35 homers, .270 average and 100-plus RBI. Am I overrating him? -- Dominick Muzio

MH: The only category you are overrating Ankiel in is RBI. It's unlikely he gets close to 100 because he is splitting time between hitting second and fourth. He has just five RBI hitting second and 10 hitting fourth. If he hits more behind Albert Pujols, who always seems to be on base, then reaching 100 RBI is a possibility. Right now, he is on pace for a .284 average, 28 homers, 97 runs and 81 RBI. Most of your projections are realistic.

Who will have better numbers by season's end: Justin Morneau or Conor Jackson ? -- Chris Tweedy

MH: Let's go with history here and back Morneau. Perhaps Jackson will hit for a better average, but Morneau has the track record of being a 30-plus homer guy and big-time RBI producer. In fact, I wouldn't be opposed as to selling high on Jackson.

I have been hurting at catcher this year. I now have Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jeff Clement, so taking everything into consideration (i.e. playing time), which of these two backstops has more Fantasy upside for the remaining of 2008? -- Bill Lohse, Chicago

MH: It's pretty much a coin toss. Salty might be splitting time behind the plate with Gerald Laird, but the Rangers will ultimately try to find ways to keep his bat in the lineup. The same goes for Clement in Seattle. He'll likely DH more than catch, but the Mariners want his bat in the lineup. I'm torn because Saltalamacchia can do some serious damage playing in the Ballpark at Arlington. However, my gut tells me to trust Clement because he hasn't struggled much at the plate during his rise through the minors. Don't forget, Clement was also a first-round pick (third overall) in that loaded 2005 draft class (Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Ryan Braun, etc.). If I had to choose, I'm going with Clement.

Stephen Drew or Ryan Theriot? -- Brian Calimano, New Brunswick, N.J.

MH: In a Head-to-Head format, Drew is the choice because he hits lower in the lineup and has the chance to plate more runs. Also, he has the better power swing. In a Rotisserie league, it's Theriot because of average, runs and stolen bases. Theriot is seeing a lot of great pitches hitting in front of Derrek Lee and is capitalizing to the tune of a .333 average. Theriot is not a popular pick in a lot of Fantasy leagues because he virtually has no power and won't total a lot of RBI. But push come to shove, Drew is the better pick since he was a big-time prospect coming out of Florida State and has the potential to be a solid No. 1 Fantasy SS.

You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Dear Mr. Fantasy in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we do not guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Dice-K throwing off mound
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, BOS
11:52 AM
News: The Boston Globe reports while Red Sox pitchers and catchers don't officially have to report until Sunday, some players have arrived early, including SP Daisuke Matsuzaka. The paper noted that Matsuzaka, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery in June, was throwing off a mound with manager Bobby Valentine watching.
Analysis: Clearly, the fact Dice-K is already throwing off a mound is good news. However, we still have to temper expectations. It usually takes pitchers 12-18 months to recover from Tommy John surgery, so we aren't expecting to see Dice-K in a major-league game until mid-summer. We will continue to update his progress as the news warrants, but Dice-K is merely a draft-and-stash option in the deepest of Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

David Ortiz
Ortiz settles before hearing
David Ortiz, DH, BOS
11:11 AM
News: DH David Ortiz and the Red Sox came to terms on a one-year contract hours before the two sides were set to go to an arbitration hearing. Ortiz signed a one-year, $14.575 million contract.
Analysis: Now that Ortiz has this business out of the way he can get down to focusing on the baseball aspect of things. Ortiz hit .309 with 29 homers and 96 RBI in 2011. He is DH-eligible only in Fantasy, which hurts his appeal a bit. But Ortiz remains a viable early-to-mid-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day.

Chris Snyder
Snyder fully recovered from surgery
Chris Snyder, C, HOU
12:27 PM
News: The Houston Chronicle reports Astros catcher Chris Snyder said he is fully recovered from the back surgery he had in June.
Analysis: A lot of folks feel Snyder will make the Astros roster out of camp, but he still needs to prove he is past his back problem, which robbed him of most of the 2011 season with Pittsburgh. Manager Brad Mills has already said Jason Castro is the team's starting catcher, but he is recovering from foot surgery and isn't expected to be ready for spring games until the second week of the exhibition schedule. In the meantime, Snyder will be battling Humberto Quintero for the backup role. Snyder has decent pop for a catcher, but his strength is defense. Snyder is more of an NL-only Fantasy option.

Ian Desmond
Nats convinced Desmond will re-emerge
Ian Desmond, SS, WAS
11:41 AM
News: CSN Washington reports the Nationals are convinced shortstop Ian Desmond is in for a bounce-back season in 2012 because of two trends they spotted in 2011. The first is that Desmond made significant strides at the plate in the second half of last season. After hitting .223 with a .264 OBP and .308 slugging percentage before the All-Star break, Desmond hit .289 with a .338 OBP and .417 slugging percentage down the stretch. He really thrived when manager Davey Johnson made him the leadoff hitter, which is a position he is expected to keep heading into the spring. The second trend is that Desmond's defense improved as the season progressed. He committed seven errors in his first 20 games and just 16 over his final 134.
Analysis: A lot of folks were excited about Desmond's 2011 outlook after he played well in his first two MLB stints in 2009 and 2010. Unfortunately, Desmond took a step back last year and will plummet down Fantasy draft boards because of it. Clearly, there is potential with Desmond. But don't reach for him on Draft Day. Let him fall to the late rounds in mixed leagues and hope that you grab a bounce-back candidate.

Phil Hughes
Hughes appears ready to compete
Phil Hughes, SP, NYY
11:26 AM
News: Newsday reports Yankees SP Phil Hughes, who looks noticeably slimmer and more muscular, said he weighs about 240 pounds. He added that in the offseason he changed his "body composition."
Analysis: The early word from Yankees camp is that Hughes is in shape and ready to compete for a spot in the rotation. Although, he is on the outside looking in if the Yankees don't trade A.J. Burnett. Though, if Hughes proves to be more valuable in the rotation than the bullpen, then the Yankees might have to reconsider his role in 2012. Let's see how Hughes does this spring training before making a final evaluation about his 2012 outlook, but clearly him being in shape is a good start. Hughes could be a viable Fantasy option again if he returns to the 18-8 pitcher he was in 2010.

Jon Garland
Garland gets shot with Indians
Jon Garland, SP, LAD
10:37 AM
News: The Indians signed SP Jon Garland to a minor-league deal on Monday. Garland, who last pitched for the Dodgers, was limited to only nine starts last season before having arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder in June.
Analysis: Garland will most likely compete with Kevin Slowey for the final spot in the Indians rotation, but he's a hittable pitcher who now may be working with less than his best stuff coming off shoulder surgery. Even if he's able to win a rotation spot, he won't be worth drafting outside of deeper AL-only leagues.

A.J. Burnett
Yanks, Pirates still talking Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
2/12/2012
News: The New York Daily News reports the Yankees and Pirates continued to talk Sunday about completing a trade for A.J. Burnett, but a baseball source said the sides are still "a good ways away" from agreeing on the final terms. The source added the Pirates are willing to pay $10 million of the remaining $33 million Burnett is owed over the next two seasons, but Pittsburgh has offered "two borderline prospects" in return. The Yankees could be willing to pay more of Burnett's remaining contract if they receive a top-tier prospect from Pittsburgh. A person familiar with the Yankees' thinking believes there is enough common ground that a deal could be completed in the coming days. However, ESPN.com reports their source said the Yankees aren't desperate to make a trade and the team would go to spring training with Burnett if a deal isn't completed.
Analysis: Leaving the Yankees usually has a negative impact on a player's Fantasy value, but in Burnett's case it might be the opposite, especially if he moves to the NL. He has struggled to handle the pressure of pitching in New York and a fresh start could be what he needs. Burnett had some of his best years in the majors pitching in the NL. Still, Burnett would be nothing more than a risky late-round Fantasy pick in mixed leagues.

Josh Johnson
JJ continues to feel no discomfort
Josh Johnson, SP, MIA
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Marlins SP Josh Johnson arrived to the team's spring training complex in Jupiter, Fla., on Feb. 9, more than a week ahead of the Marlins reporting date for pitchers and catchers. Johnson, who has been throwing off a mound near his home in Las Vegas, threw his first bullpen session of the year in Florida on Feb. 10. He felt no discomfort and expects to be ready for the first workouts on Feb. 22. He made only nine starts last year because of shoulder issues.
Analysis: Any encouraging news regarding JJ is welcomed. But Fantasy owners do have to be aware of the risk of drafting him. Of course his potential makes it worth it, but JJ has made it past 30 starts just once in his career. Look to Johnson as more of a No. 2 Fantasy SP on Draft Day, but clearly he has the potential to be your ace if he can stay healthy.

Hunter Pence
Pence likely to hit cleanup
Hunter Pence, RF, PHI
2/12/2012
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports Phillies manager Charlie Manuel has to find a cleanup hitter with Ryan Howard expected to miss the beginning of the season recovering from an Achilles injury, and he said his choice going into spring training is Hunter Pence.
Analysis: Pence either hit right in front of or right behind Howard after his acquisition from Houston last season and thrived in the Phillies lineup. He will miss Howard's lineup protection, but might only have to play a month without Howard. In the meantime, Pence should get plenty of RBI chances batting cleanup, and he will still have plenty of lineup protection without Howard. Look to Pence in the early rounds of Fantasy drafts.

Jason Vargas
Vargas expected to pitch in A's series
Jason Vargas, SP, SEA
2/12/2012
News: Mariners manager Eric Wedge hinted Sunday that ace Felix Hernandez and Jason Vargas are the leading candidates to start the team's first two games against the A's in Japan. "That's one of the reasons we're here early, to make sure we get Felix ready and we're probably looking at Vargas right now in regard to the first couple games," Wedge said, as reported by MLB.com. "It is a little odd, but that's OK. That's part of it. We're professionals here and we have to get multiple starters prepared for the regular season. It's not just about those two guys, it's about everybody else as well. We've got a lot of starting pitchers here in camp and we'll see how it plays out. I'm looking forward to the competition."
Analysis: Believe it or not, but Vargas is arguably the M's second-best pitcher heading into spring training. He has been a steady part of the M's rotation the last two seasons. He is 19-25 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 63 starts since the beginning of the 2010 campaign. However, he is not a dominant pitcher and has weak strikeout totals, so Vargas is nothing more than a low-end Fantasy SP on Draft Day.

 
 
 
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