By the Numbers: Padilla is what he is
By Al Melchior | Special to CBSSports.com Follow AlFollow CBS Fantasy Baseball
In this week's Lucky/Unlucky analysis, Justin Duchscherer turned up as one of the pitchers who, despite his extreme ERA, was neither lucky nor unlucky. Fortunately for the A's, his abnormal ERA is of the low variety, and Fantasy owners have started to take notice. He is suddenly in more than half of all Fantasy leagues on CBSSports.com. Also very much for real is Milton Bradley, whose league-leading 0.975 OPS is supported by a .238 Isolated Power and a 17 percent walk rate. He, too, has been rewarded with a major surge in ownership over the past week.
After two dazzling May starts, Daniel Cabrera has been picked up by Fantasy owners in bunches. Those two performances have done a lot to clean up his ERA (3.54) and WHIP (1.20). Owners should not get too carried away by numbers from just 16-plus innings, and they should also be wary of his 22 percent H/BIP. Though his Fantasy stats make Cabrera look like a new and improved pitcher, his 1.42 K/BB ratio reveals that he is as unreliable as ever.
Here are a few other players coming and going in many AL-only leagues this week.
Guys in demand
Vicente Padilla, SP, Texas
Week 7 Ownership: 31 percent
Week 8 Ownership: 58 percent
Rank in AL-only Most Added: 1st
The Skinny: Thanks to a sparkling 5-2 record and 3.23 ERA, Padilla is the most popular addition on our list this week. As with Cabrera, though, this performance is mostly a mirage. Padilla has shown his usual good control, but his K/9 and HR/9 rates are more mediocre than what you would expect from a pitcher with such a low ERA. Another suspicious sign is Padilla's 1.42 WHIP. A combination of a high WHIP and low ERA is not uncommon if you don't give up many home runs, but that is not the case here. Jeremy Bonderman was pulling off the same statistical trick earlier this season, but it has caught up with him (see the "Roster Repellant" list below). As with Bonderman, I expect Padilla's ERA to soar back to the upper 4.00s and his name to be added to the Most Dropped List soon.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | H/BIP | ERC |
| 2006 | Texas | 3.2 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 31% | 4.41 |
| 2007 | Texas | 3.7 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 32% | 5.95 |
| 2008 | Texas | 3.1 | 5.7 | 1.1 | 30% | 4.71 |
Jesse Litsch, SP, Toronto
Week 7 Ownership: 19 percent
Week 8 Ownership: 32 percent
Rank in AL-only Most Added: 5th
The Skinny: Despite a pedestrian 4.11 ERA, Litsch has become increasingly popular among Fantasy owners over the last two weeks. Maybe it's the 5-1 record or the 1.17 WHIP. Maybe it's the 3.7 K/BB ratio over two seasons at Double-A New Hampshire. Yeah, it's probably not that one, but his minor league numbers show the potential he has to be a productive Fantasy pitcher in the majors. This year, his ERA and WHIP are getting some help from a low 27 percent H/BIP. Even if that rate regresses, his skill history suggests that he can keep his ERA in the low 4.00s. There are worse pitchers you can go to in filling out the back of your rotation, and at 23, Litsch still has a lot of upside.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | H/BIP | ERC |
| 2006 | New Hampshire (Double-A) | 1.7 | 7.0 | 0.8 | N/A | N/A |
| 2007 | Toronto | 2.9 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 28% | 4.48 |
| 2008 | Toronto | 1.4 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 27% | 3.88 |
Others drawing interest
| Rank | Player | Week 7 ownership | Week 8 ownership | Percentage change |
| 2 | Justin Duchscherer, SP, Oakland | 32% | 56% | 24% |
| 3 | Milton Bradley, OF, Texas | 36% | 53% | 17% |
| 4 | Daniel Cabrera, SP, Baltimore | 52% | 66% | 14% |
The guys dropping like flies
Bobby Crosby, SS, Oakland
Week 7 Ownership: 72 percent
Week 8 Ownership: 65 percent
Rank in AL-only Most Dropped: 5th (tied)
The Skinny: The good news about Crosby is that, at this rate, he will have his highest average and OBP since 2005. Those averages are supported by improvements in his contact and walk rates. The bad news is that, even though he is hitting better, Crosby is still an average Fantasy shortstop at best. From Derek Jeter to Edgar Renteria to Jhonny Peralta, AL shortstops seem to be having a collective slow start, so in AL-only leagues, there may not be many better options. And while Crosby has still not found his home run stroke, his 12 doubles in 154 at-bats show that he still has some power. Given the scarcity of good Fantasy shortstops in the AL and the possibility of a home run resurgence, it could pay to hold on to Crosby.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2006 | Oakland | 9% | 21% | 0.109 | 27% | 3.3 |
| 2007 | Oakland | 6% | 18% | 0.115 | 25% | 3.0 |
| 2008 | Oakland | 9% | 16% | 0.117 | 29% | 4.0 |
Others wearing roster repellant
| Rank | Player | Week 7 ownership | Week 8 ownership | Percentage change |
| 1 | Chad Gaudin, SP, Oakland | 55% | 21% | - 34% |
| 2 | Armando Galarraga, SP, Detroit | 36% | 23% | - 13% |
| 3 | Brian Burres, SP, Baltimore | 24% | 15% | - 9% |
| 4 | Carlos Silva, SP, Seattle | 57% | 49% | - 8% |
| 5 | Jeremy Bonderman, SP, Detroit | 91% | 84% | - 7% |
| 5 | Mark Buehrle, SP, Chicago White Sox | 79% | 72% | - 7% |
| 5 | Richie Sexson, 1B, Seattle | 51% | 44% | - 7% |
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
