By the Numbers: More Ryans on the radar
By Al Melchior | Special to CBSSports.com Follow AlFollow CBS Fantasy Baseball
In NL-only leagues, The Year of the Ryan continues. Ryans Church, Doumit and Theriot were near the top of last week’s Most Added list; this week Ludwick and Franklin of the Cardinals rank first and second. We are very close to being able to go around the horn with an All-Ryan Team. Besides a popular first name, what do Ludwick and Franklin have going for them? For the former, it's an exceptional streak of power hitting, and for the latter, it's a shiny new closer's job. Let's see what the chances are that these gifts will keep on giving.
Guys in demand
Ryan Ludwick, OF, St. Louis
Week 7 Ownership: 17 percent
Week 8 Ownership: 63 percent
Rank in NL-only Most Added: 1st
The Skinny: Ludwick looks like the classic case of someone whose monster stats need to be discounted because of good luck. We wouldn't normally equate him with Manny Ramirez or Albert Pujols, but that is the company you have when your RC/27 is in double digits. However, even Ramirez and Pujols don't smash anywhere near 42 percent of their balls in play for base hits. In other words, Ludwick's numbers scream "Fluke!".
While we can't expect this "Ryan Being Manny" act to last much longer, his skill numbers do resemble those of another slugger: Adam Dunn. Both consistently have whiff rates that nearly make Jack Cust blush, yet both draw a bunch of walks. Actually, Ludwick doesn't walk or steal quite as much as Dunn, but he is hitting for more power. Dunn may not be the perfect Fantasy player, but there are worse guys to be compared to. Over the long haul, Ludwick is not going to help your average, but he is still is an excellent waiver pickup.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2006 | Toledo (Triple-A) | 9% | 33% | 0.240 | 34% | N/A |
| 2007 | St. Louis | 8% | 24% | 0.211 | 31% | 5.8 |
| 2008 | St. Louis | 11% | 31% | 0.351 | 42% | 10.7 |
Ryan Franklin, RP, St. Louis
Week 7 Ownership: 7 percent
Week 8 Ownership: 38 percent
Rank in NL-only Most Added: 2nd
The Skinny: The fact that Franklin is now on a roster in 38 percent of all leagues on CBSSports.com proves just one thing: if you are getting major league save opportunities, you will have a job in Fantasy. Without Jason Isringhausen's meltdown, Franklin would still be a full-time setup reliever with a low strikeout rate. If you are focused on his 1.80 ERA, you might be tempted to see him as similar to other elite setup guys, like Heath Bell or Carlos Marmol. He's not. Franklin may have a closer-like ERA, but the only reasons for this are that he hasn't given up a homer and his H/BIP rate is unusually low. Last year's 0.9 HR/9 rate was his lowest ever, so history says the long balls are coming. You might be able to squeeze a few saves out of Franklin, but with his ERA and WHIP sure to rise, he probably won't have the closer's job for long.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | H/BIP | ERC |
| 2006 | Philadelphia/Cincinnati | 3.8 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 30% | 5.41 |
| 2007 | St. Louis | 1.2 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 25% | 2.59 |
| 2008 | St. Louis | 3.6 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 25% | 2.60 |
Others drawing interest
| Rank | Player | Week 7 ownership | Week 8 ownership | Percentage change |
| 3 | Chris Iannetta, C, Colorado | 11% | 32% | 21% |
| 4 | Andrew Miller, SP, Florida | 25% | 45% | 20% |
| 5 | Chris Snyder, C, Arizona | 40% | 56% | 16% |
| 5 | Blake DeWitt, 3B, L.A. Dodgers | 11% | 27% | 16% |
The guys dropping like flies
Kyle Lohse, SP, St. Louis
Week 7 Ownership: 49 percent
Week 8 Ownership: 40 percent
Rank in NL-only Most Dropped: 6th (tied)
The Skinny: Not every Cardinal is experiencing a lovefest. After a promising April for Lohse, three consecutive poor starts have jacked his ERA up from 2.36 to 4.91. While he has failed to strike out more than four batters in any appearance so far this year, in the early going, Lohse was keeping his walks to a minimum. Over his last three starts, he has walked eight batters in 17 innings. For a low-strikeout pitcher, that is a recipe for disaster.
Lohse has shown the ability to rack up Ks at various points in his career, so there is a slim hope for a turnaround. Slim is the key word, though. Going back to the beginning of 2007, Lohse has struck out more than five hitters in a game only three times. These trends make Lohse a risky pick even for NL-only leagues, so be on the lookout for a potential replacement, if you haven't dropped him yet.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | H/BIP | ERC |
| 2006 | Minnesota/Cincinnati | 3.1 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 34% | 5.20 |
| 2007 | Cincinnati/Philadelphia | 2.7 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 31% | 4.45 |
| 2008 | St. Louis | 2.8 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 30% | 3.69 |
Others wearing roster repellant
| Rank | Player | Week 7 ownership | Week 8 ownership | Percentage change |
| 1 | Jonathan Sanchez, SP, San Francisco | 81% | 63% | - 18% |
| 2 | Eric Gagne, RP, Milwaukee | 75% | 61% | - 14% |
| 3 | Jason Isringhausen, RP, St. Louis | 90% | 77% | - 13% |
| 4 | Randy Wolf, SP, San Diego | 78% | 66% | - 12% |
| 5 | Jo-Jo Reyes, SP, Atlanta | 25% | 15% | - 10% |
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
