By the Numbers: When does Murphy's law apply?
By Al Melchior | Special to CBSSports.com Follow AlFollow CBS Fantasy Baseball
Rangers OF David Murphy was one of the hottest hitters in spring training this year, compiling an eye-popping 1.007 OPS. Fantasy owners weren't impressed. Only within the last two weeks has Murphy been on a roster in more than 30 percent of all leagues on CBSSports.com. Back during his March hot streak, I wrote that he would get an opportunity to play regularly, but that he didn't have the skills to stick as a starter. More than one-quarter of the way into the season, he is still in the Texas starting outfield and just starting to heat up. In just over a week, he has raised his batting average from .253 to .279 and is on pace to drive in 102 runs.
Can Murphy keep up the pace or is he still at risk to lose his job in the weeks to come? Fortunately for his owners, his numbers so far are supported by an increase in power. While he is hitting with a good deal more thump than he ever did in the minors, he is also striking out more than he used to. If this trend continues, it is unlikely that his average will rise much higher than where it is now, but he can be counted on to score and knock in runs. With his main competition coming from Marlon Byrd and Brandon Boggs, Murphy should be able to keep his job and perform well enough to merit a roster spot in mixed and AL-only leagues.
Dioner Navarro's bandwagon is speeding along just as fast as Murphy's. It might seem like insanity for so many owners to pick up a catcher whose average is so out of whack with his career norms, not to mention the norms of his species. A 41 percent H/BIP rate should add to the skepticism, but there is also a good reason to catch Dioner Fever. Much of his improvement is due to a dramatic decrease in his whiff rate, which is now at a Pujols-like 11 percent. He doesn't have the power to hit for Pujols' average, but if he keeps this up, he will continue to be one of the better catching options in AL-only leagues.
More guys in demand
Aaron Laffey, SP, Cleveland
Week 8 Ownership: 20 percent
Week 9 Ownership: 55 percent
Rank in AL Most Added: 1st
The Skinny: Laffey is now the finesse pitcher du jour. While the shine has come off of guys like Brian Bannister and Carlos Silva, Laffey has captured the attention of Fantasy owners with three straight scoreless starts. If you are going to strike out only four or five batters every nine innings, you had better keep the walks and homers to a minimum. Laffey has shown throughout his career that he can do exactly that. His 21 percent H/BIP won't last, so neither will his 1.35 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. However, as long as Laffey stays in the rotation, he has a legitimate shot at an ERA in the mid 3.00s and a WHIP around 1.30.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | H/BIP | ERC |
| 2006 | Akron (Double-A) | 2.6 | 4.9 | 0.7 | N/A | N/A |
| 2007 | Buffalo (Triple-A) | 2.1 | 7.0 | 0.5 | N/A | N/A |
| 2007 | Cleveland | 2.2 | 4.6 | 0.4 | 32% | 4.02 |
| 2008 | Cleveland | 1.7 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 21% | 1.37 |
Akinori Iwamura, 2B, Tampa Bay
Week 8 Ownership: 30 percent
Week 9 Ownership: 49 percent
Rank in AL Most Added: 3rd
The Skinny: Back at the end of April, I was wondering what was wrong with Aki. He was one of the least productive infielders in baseball, batting .210 with virtually no power. Apparently, nothing was wrong, and his May turnaround is a lesson in the perils of small sample sizes. This month, Iwamura has hit for a .358 average and his Isolated Power is at .173. Neither set of figures provides realistic expectations for Iwamura, and he appears to be settling in at a level consistent with what he established last year. He's not going to be Brian Roberts or Ian Kinsler, but given the dearth of quality second basemen in the AL, it's hard to understand how Iwamura could still be unowned in more than half of all CBSSports.com leagues.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2007 | Tampa Bay | 11% | 23% | 0.126 | 36% | 5.5 |
| 2008 | Tampa Bay | 9% | 19% | 0.102 | 33% | 4.7 |
Others drawing interest
| Rank | Player | Week 8 ownership | Week 9 ownership | Percentage change |
| 2 | Dioner Navarro, C, Tampa Bay | 40% | 60% | 20% |
| 3 | Jose Contreras, SP, Chicago White Sox | 24% | 43% | 19% |
| 5 | Milton Bradley, OF, Texas | 53% | 71% | 18% |
| 5 | David Murphy, OF, Texas | 29% | 47% | 18% |
The guys dropping like flies
Kurt Suzuki, C, Oakland
Week 8 Ownership: 64 percent
Week 9 Ownership: 52 percent
Rank in AL Most Dropped: 2nd
The Skinny: Suzuki's lack of power is even more perplexing than Iwamura's was. Last year he had a higher Isolated Power than A.J. Pierzynski or Joe Mauer; now he can't outslug Jose Molina. Suzuki is on track to get 565 AB, so you have to wonder if he is already starting to wear down. Unfortunately, that explanation doesn't wash. He has a grand total of eight extra bases this year, and four of them have come in the last two weeks. Because he has shown the skills to be even better than Navarro, owners in AL-only leagues should wait out the slump a little longer. In mixed leagues, keep Suzuki on your radar, but you might as well try to get Navarro, Mike Napoli or Gerald Laird, all of whom are still available in many leagues.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2006 | Midland (Double-A) | 13% | 13% | 0.130 | 31% | N/A |
| 2007 | Oakland | 10% | 18% | 0.160 | 28% | 4.6 |
| 2008 | Oakland | 7% | 15% | 0.049 | 28% | 2.6 |
Others wearing roster repellant
| Rank | Player | Week 8 ownership | Week 9 ownership | Percentage change |
| 1 | Rafael Betancourt, RP, Cleveland | 55% | 33% | - 22% |
| 3 | Eric Hinske, 1B, Tampa Bay | 40% | 32% | - 8% |
| 4 | Carlos Silva, SP, Seattle | 49% | 42% | - 7% |
| 5 | Gary Sheffield, DH, Detroit | 86% | 80% | - 6% |
| 5 | Emil Brown, OF, Oakland | 49% | 43% | - 6% |
| |
| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
