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Fantasy Triple Play: Can owners count on Colon?

Each week three of our resident Fantasy writers will answer three pertinent questions that all owners should be asking themselves. Feel free to submit your own questions for this feature and we'll tackle them in this space.

Fantasy Triple Play
  Who would you pin your hopes on at the hot corner for the remainder of 2008: Alex Gordon, Blake Dewitt or Evan Longoria? How many saves will George Sherrill finish the year with? What are your expectations for Bartolo Colon in 2008 now that he's back in the majors?
Eric Mack
Eric Mack
You shouldn't pin your hopes on any of these three at this point, because they are so raw. They are future stars, but not instant Fantasy gems like Ryan Braun was a year ago. Longoria looks like he has the highest ceiling for this season, but Gordon is the safer bet to not completely disappoint you. If you need a player to start, Gordon is the pick. If you have a reserve spot to stash an elite talent for a potential monster hot streak, Longoria is the choice. DeWitt may be hotter than both, but he is not in their class as a talent. The new O's closer is on pace for 64 saves right now. He will not set the single-season saves record. Also, the Orioles will not win 81 games this season. Since they are 24-20, expect the Orioles and Sherrill to slow down. A total of 35 sounds reasonable. Now, a closer on a bad team can save 40 games, but you will not win Fantasy leagues consistently counting on something like that happening. Sub-.500 teams tend to offer save chances in bunches. Sherrill has gotten about half of his saves total for the season already. Sell high. The only real expectation you should have is a DL stint at some point. Colon is an outstanding sleeper in all Fantasy leagues. Every Red Sox starter is. He has been reaching the mid-90s at times during his minor league starts, but the question is how long can he sustain it? His history of arm issues suggests not all the rest of the way. In spurts, Colon can be a dominant Fantasy starter, but don't count on him as a must-start every week ace.
Sergio Gonzalez
Michael Hurcomb
I stick by Gordon through thick and thin. Longoria will be an elite talent and DeWitt continues to defy expectations, but Gordon has a leg up on experience. Gordon went through his rookie troubles last season, and I expect Longoria and DeWitt to hit a rookie wall at some point. Also, the pressure is now off Gordon in K.C. with the emergence of Jose Guillen. The team signed Guillen in the offseason to be a run producer and he is finally doing so in May (.323 avg., two HRs, 15 RBI). One shy of 40. Sherrill is currently on pace for 64 saves, but that isn't going to happen. The O's are going to stop winning at their current pace, however, I do believe over the next few months that Sherrill could put another 20-22 saves on the board. Disappointment. Colon won his first start Wednesday against the Royals, but we have seen this before. Don't forget -- he won five of his first six starts in 2007 with the Angels before falling apart and spending months on the DL with an elbow injury. He has already been injured once this season down in the minors and he hasn't pitched a full season since 2005. Colon is not getting any younger, and if he struggles at some point, Boston has plenty of alternatives waiting in the wings.
David Gonos
David Gonos
While DeWitt is certainly playing well, I still think he has two many obstacles to overcome to remain the starter for the season. Gordon is hitting around .300 finally and his below-average '07 appears to be behind him, but Longoria is my pick to finish with the best numbers of the three. His supporting cast is much better, and he's shown flashes of greatness already. The left-hander has 17 saves now, with seven coming in May. The Orioles are above .500 right now, but that's not going to be the case by season's end. The fact that the O's have a sub-par offense means most of the wins they do rack up will be low-margin ones in large part, which turns into save opportunities. Closers are a fickle bunch, and this being his first year in the role means speed-bumps could be ahead. I'll mark him down for a total of 37 saves on the year -- still a solid total. This much we know about Colon: When he's healthy, more often than not, he's able to pitch well. The Red Sox have a stellar lineup to get him leads, and their bullpen is still considered above-average to help keep those leads in tact. But with four months ahead, you'd be happy to get three months (half a season) of action from the 34-year-old (35 on Saturday). I think an 7-4 record with an ERA around 4.50 in 14 starts (80 IP) is reasonable.

You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Triple Play in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Coco Crisp
Crisp moving over for Cespedes?
Coco Crisp, CF, OAK
10:13 AM
News: Sources have told FOXSports.com that the Athletics intend to start newly signed Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes in center field right away, which would move Coco Crisp over to left field and Seth Smith to DH. Cespedes is already 26 and has faced upper-level competition in Cuba, but some scouts think he could use some time in the minors to adjust to the U.S. game.
Analysis: None of these reports are coming directly from the Athletics, so you should consider them nothing more than speculation at this point. Still, speculation is better than nothing, and if Cespedes is in fact going to be on the opening day roster, then he might even be worth drafting in the middle rounds, given his upside. As for Crisp, moving to left field wouldn't have any real impact on his Fantasy value. The Athletics outfield is even more crowded with the Cespedes signing, but the team seems to consider Crisp a mainstay at the top of the lineup. Given his base-stealing ability and doubles pop, he's a worthy fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Ryan Braun
Braun will know fate by Feb. 24
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
10:03 AM
News: Monday came and went without a ruling on Brewers OF Ryan Braun's pending 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It was the 25th day since the three-man panel heard Braun's appeal. According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the panel was supposed to “make all reasonable efforts” to deliver a verdict within that period of time, but chairman Shyam Das was given an extension. A decision is expected before Braun reports to spring training on Feb. 24, but the exact date is unknown since the process is intended to be confidential.
Analysis: The panel's need for a lengthy deliberation is theoretically a good sign, but then again, since the process is usually confidential, we don't know how common such extensions are. Braun's case is said to be unique, but it might not make much of a difference to the panel. If you're drafting now, you should do so with the expectation that Braun will miss the first 50 games of the season, which could allow him to slip to the middle rounds in standard mixed leagues. If the appeal is upheld, though, he's suddenly back to being a first-rounder in Fantasy.

Josh Johnson
JJ: 'I feel great. No problems'
Josh Johnson, SP, MIA
2/13/2012
News: The Associated Press reports Marlins president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest said the team should be fully healthy heading into spring training. That includes ace Josh Johnson, who has been throwing off a mound after making only nine starts in 2011 because of right shoulder inflammation. "I feel great," Johnson said. "No problems. I haven't really been sore yet, and I've been letting it go." The Sports Xchange reported over the weekend that Johnson arrived to the team's spring training complex in Jupiter, Fla., on Feb. 9 and threw his first bullpen session of the year in Florida on Feb. 10.
Analysis: The fact we hear JJ talking about his promising progress is very encouraging. Now, he just has to avoid setbacks and stay healthy for an entire season. Fantasy owners do have to be aware of the risk of drafting him. Of course his potential makes it worth it, but JJ has made it past 30 starts just once in his career. Look to Johnson as more of a No. 2 Fantasy SP on Draft Day, but clearly he has the potential to be your ace if he can stay healthy.

Ike Davis
Davis 'good to go' as camp nears
Ike Davis, 1B, NYM
2/13/2012
News: The New York Post reports Mets 1B Ike Davis said he is "good to go" as he arrived to spring training on Monday. Davis who missed most of last season with an ankle injury said he no longer thinks about his injury. He elected not to have surgery and chose to rehab the injury instead. “It’s great to know I’m training for a season rather than training to see if I can get back on the field or have to have surgery,” Davis said. “I’ve been fine for a while now, so it’s what I expected. But it’s good to finally hit on the field and get this under my belt.” Davis might see more at-bats this spring as he tries to make up for lost time. “I have more of a drive and a want this year,” Davis said. “I always had it, but I never really saw the other side, when the game isn’t there. I know to take it slow. I have to get back into the rhythm of playing, but I’ve got plenty of time. It’s going to come back.”
Analysis: We really hope Davis is past his ankle problems like he says he is because he is one of the Mets' top offensive players when active. As productive as he was before the injury last year, Davis is a potential bargain with a middle-to-late-round pick and will only move up the draft boards with a strong spring. Continue to track his progress.

Roy Oswalt
Oswalt waiting to sign with Texas?
Roy Oswalt, SP, PHI
2/13/2012
News: The Cincinnati Enquirer reports Reds GM Walt Jocketty said he hasn't had contact with Roy Oswalt's agents in the last week, and Jocketty offered up his own opinion on the Oswalt sweepstakes. “I think he’s waiting for Texas to clear money,” Jocketty said.
Analysis: It's interesting to hear Jocketty say Oswalt wants to sign with Texas. At least it's a legit reason why the veteran right-hander hasn't signed with a team yet, despite being linked to the Reds and Cardinals. Oswalt is likely going to sign somewhere before the start of the 2012 season and should be in a rotation. Consider Oswalt more of a mid-to-late-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day. Don't forget about his chronic back problems.

Johan Santana
Santana looks 'great' playing catch
Johan Santana, SP, NYM
2/13/2012
News: The Wall Street Journal reports Mets SP Johan Santana (shoulder) played catch from 175 feet Monday. Manager Terry Collins said Santana looked "great" and he hopes the left-hander will throw off a mound by the end of the week. “I think I’ll be on the mound Thursday or Friday and we’ll see where we’re at,” Santana told the New York Post. “But I’m making progress and finally getting into a routine that will take me all the way to spring training and the regular season.” Santana would like to be ready by opening day, but he doesn't consider it a critical date. “Time will tell if I get there,” Santana said. “We’ll see once I compete. I have to get some competition and see how my arm and whole body reacts to it. When I get on the mound soon, I should be fine when spring training starts. I’m worried more about my mechanics and delivery more than anything. That’s the point I’m at. My biggest concern will always be my health, but it’s just a matter of time. I just want to compete.”
Analysis: Collins' assessment of Santana sounds like cautious optimism. After all it was just catch. Santana has bigger hurdles to clear in hopes of pitching for the first time since the 2010 season. Santana is coming off a serious shoulder injury and who knows if he can return to the dominant arm he once was. Fantasy owners should bear in mind that Chien-Ming Wang, who underwent the same procedure, needed two years to make it back to the majors, so Santana could wind up providing far fewer than 25 starts -- which is the Mets' goal for the lefty this season. Because of the playing time risk, he is a late-round option in mixed leagues at best.

Seth Smith
Cespedes to bump Smith?
Seth Smith, RF, OAK
2/13/2012
News: Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes and the Oakland Athletics have agreed to a $36 million, four-year contract. Agent Adam Katz confirmed Monday the sides had reached agreement, with details still to be finalized. Cespedes' arrival means the A's could eventually bump Seth Smith to designated hitter.
Analysis: We will have to wait and see what happens when Cespedes finally arrives at A's camp, but the speculation is that the A's outfield alignment will eventually be Josh Reddick in right field, Coco Crisp in center field and Cespedes in left, which is where Smith is currently penciled in as the starter. But the A's could use a rotation at DH, which would still allow Smith to see regular at-bats, if Cespedes doesn't have to begin the year in the minors, which remains an option as well. Smith struggles against left-handed pitchers, so he might still be in a platoon situation like he was with the Rockies. Smith remains more of a late-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Mike Napoli
Napoli's ankle still an issue
Mike Napoli, C, TEX
2/13/2012
News: ESPN.com reports Rangers catcher Mike Napoli said his injured left ankle is progressing, but he is still not 100 percent. Napoli turned his ankle in the World Series against the Cardinals last year. "I think I’m close," Napoli said. "I’m not really going to know until I get into the wear and tear of spring training and catching all the time. But I've been feeling good and getting better day by day." Napoli said he has been running on the ankle, and he is also hitting and throwing without pain. However, he is still concerned about how it will hold up with the constant squatting and baseball activity. "But I'm trying not to do that all the time so I'm not depending on that," Napoli said. "I'm working on getting my little muscles stronger."
Analysis: The Dallas Morning News reports GM Jon Daniels said exams by team physician Keith Meister said Napoli's ankle shows no structural damage, but Napoli is still experiencing soreness. "The fact he's still feeling it a few months later speaks to what he went through to play the rest of Game 6 and go back out for Game 7," Daniels said. "It was about as bad as it looked to the rest of us." You have to wonder if Napoli can't shake this injury if it will play into how much time he gets behind the plate. Nonetheless, if Napoli catches less that just means he will likely see more PT at DH and first base. The Rangers aren't going to take his bat out of the lineup. Napoli remains a top 5 Fantasy catcher on Draft Day.

Bobby Abreu
Abreu to have to earn PT
Bobby Abreu, LF, LAA
12:44 AM
News: According to the Los Angeles Times, Angels general manager Jerry Dipoto told OF Bobby Abreu during a phone call on Monday that the veteran will be given every opportunity to earn playing time during the spring. With the offseason addition of Albert Pujols, Mark Trumbo and Kendrys Morales will vie with Abreu for at-bats at the DH spot in 2012. Dipoto also added that he does not plan on trading the 37-year-old. “Bobby is an Angel,” Dipoto said. “Right now, he fits on our 25-man roster, in our clubhouse, on our team. Where he is in eight weeks is predicated on how he’s playing and everyone’s health. We have some unknowns with the health of Kendrys and the progress of Mark, but we know Bobby is healthy. As I told him, if he swings the bat like he can, we’re going to find a way to play him.”
Analysis: Abreu played in just 28 games in the outfield last season so seeing time at DH is really the only way he is going to play consistently in 2012. Things don't look good for him at this point but if Morales is still unable to return from his broken ankle, he could end up platooning with Trumbo. Trumbo is also a candidate to be traded so keep an eye on the situation going forward. Abreu batted .253 with eight homers, 60 RBI and 21 stolen bases last season and would be a worthwhile pick in deeper mixed leagues if he sees everyday at-bats for the Angels.

Hong-Chih Kuo
M's to be careful with Kuo
Hong-Chih Kuo, P, SEA
2/13/2012
News: MLB.com reports Mariners RP Hong-Chih Kuo threw his first bullpen session of the spring on Sunday, but the team will proceed with caution with Kuo, who is coming off October elbow surgery. "We've got to keep an eye on him and work to keep him healthy and available for us," manager Eric Wedge said. "He was dominant a couple years ago. He's had some injuries in the past, but he feels good now. It's a great opportunity for him as well as so many others. But when you look at his upside and what he's capable of doing when he's healthy, we're hoping we can keep him there."
Analysis: Kuo definitely showed promise during his tenure with the Dodgers from 2005-11. However, he had a rocky career that was filled with arm injuries and inconsistencies. He won't close for Seattle, but the Mariners hope he can be a setup man for closer Brandon League. Kuo remains just a low-end Fantasy RP in leagues that use middle relievers.

 
 
 
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