By the Numbers: What is Jayson worth?
By Al Melchior | Special to CBSSports.com Follow AlFollow CBS Fantasy Baseball
Attention Fantasy shoppers: supplies of Ryan Ludwick are quickly running out. After another week of hot hitting (.368 average, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 7 runs), he is now available in only 14 percent of all CBS Sports.com leagues. If you are in one of those leagues, pick him up, because as I discussed in last week's column, his power is for real.
Jay Bruce is also making himself scarce, now that he is suddenly unavailable in a majority of leagues. He is rumored to get his callup from Triple-A soon, so if there is a weak link in your offense, now is the time to pounce. Bruce has an impressive combination of power and speed, but be prepared for a plunge from the .300+ averages he has posted in the minors.
What do Jayson Werth, Clint Barmes and Randy Wolf all have in common? Each suffered a devastating injury in 2005 and has had a rocky road back to productivity. That rocky road has also led them to be featured in this week’s Add/Drop profiles.
Guys in demand
Jayson Werth, OF, Philadelphia
Week 8 Ownership: 14 percent
Week 9 Ownership: 45 percent
Rank in NL Most Added: 1st
The Skinny: Werth has really cooled off in the past week, but Fantasy owners are still rewarding him for his big three-homer game last Friday. That game feels like the culmination of a slow climb back to his status as a power hitter, which he originally gained as a prospect in the Blue Jays' system. Wrist injuries derailed his budding career and then forced him to miss all of 2006. Signing with the Phillies and hitting in Citizens Bank Park is not the worst strategy for reestablishing yourself as a power bat. Even so, Werth's .262 Isolated Power is probably a bit over his head, but his low 28 percent H/BIP is a sign of a batting average that is due to rise.
Werth's biggest problem is playing time, as he is still splitting time with Geoff Jenkins and Shane Victorino. He is clearly hitting enough when he does play to be roster-worthy in NL-only leagues. Until Charlie Manuel plays Werth more regularly against righties, however, consider keeping him on reserves in mixed leagues.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2005 | L.A. Dodgers | 13% | 34% | 0.140 | 33% | 4.3 |
| 2007 | Philadelphia | 15% | 29% | 0.161 | 39% | 7.7 |
| 2008 | Philadelphia | 10% | 25% | 0.262 | 28% | 7.0 |
Clint Barmes, SS, Colorado
Week 8 Ownership: 49 percent
Week 9 Ownership: 69 percent
Rank in NL Most Added: 3rd
The Skinny: Like Werth, Barmes' career was disrupted by a major injury in 2005. As a result of what was probably Major League Baseball's first-and-only deer meat-related injury, Barmes broke his collarbone and missed nearly half of his rookie season. His increasing power trend after returning from his injury practically mirrors Werth's. Barmes' high average and slugging percentage aren't as believeable, because of an exaggerated H/BIP and the lack of a power hitting credentials at any level. He won't keep up his current pace, so Barmes will wind up looking less like Miguel Tejada and more like Michael Young.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2006 | Colorado | 4% | 15% | 0.113 | 25% | 2.9 |
| 2007 | Colorado Springs (Triple-A) | 5% | 12% | 0.152 | 32% | N/A |
| 2008 | Colorado | 5% | 15% | 0.233 | 37% | 7.6 |
Others drawing interest
| Rank | Player | Week 8 ownership | Week 9 ownership | Percentage change |
| 2 | Ryan Ludwick, OF, St. Louis | 63% | 84% | 21% |
| 4 | Jay Bruce, 1B, Cincinnati | 37% | 54% | 17% |
| 4 | Chris Perez, RP, St. Louis | 1% | 18% | 17% |
The guys dropping like flies
Randy Wolf, SP, San Diego
Week 8 Ownership: 65 percent
Week 9 Ownership: 52 percent
Rank in NL Most Dropped: 1st
The Skinny: With a 33 percent H/BIP and an inflated 5.05 ERA (through May 21), Wolf has become a mainstay on the "Unlucky Pitchers" list. Bad luck or not, Fantasy owners lost patience with his rising ERA and five-game winless streak. Going back farther, the last three years have been a long trail of ugliness: Tommy John surgery, shoulder surgery, sky-high WHIPs and soaring ERAs. Still, owners who penalize Wolf for his recent transgressions do so at their own risk. His skill stats have been very good this year. They are actually very similar to those of Ryan Dempster (2.70 ERA) and Todd Wellemeyer (3.25 ERA), but those pitchers are benefiting from favorable H/BIP rates. Wolf is a must-keep in NL-only leagues, and, at worst, a reserve slot or Scout Team candidate in mixed leagues.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | H/BIP | ERC |
| 2006 | Philadelphia | 5.2 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 31% | 6.63 |
| 2007 | L.A. Dodgers | 3.4 | 8.2 | 0.9 | 33% | 4.52 |
| 2008 | San Diego | 3.7 | 7.8 | 0.5 | 33% | 4.14 |
Others wearing roster repellant
| Rank | Player | Week 8 ownership | Week 9 ownership | Percentage change |
| 2 | Max Scherzer, SP, Arizona | 86% | 78% | - 12% |
| 3 | Mark Reynolds, 3B, Arizona | 87% | 80% | - 7% |
| 3 | Derek Lowe, SP, L.A. Dodgers | 87% | 80% | - 7% |
| 3 | Ian Snell, SP, Pittsburgh | 83% | 76% | - 7% |
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
