It's about time one of the greeting card companies compose a sympathy note for Jeremy Guthrie.
The Orioles right-hander has experienced more hard luck the last two seasons than probably any other major league hurler.
A first-round selection in 2002 by the Indians after he was a two-time All-American at Stanford, Guthrie had a turbulent time with Cleveland and eventually found himself on waivers in January 2007. What was one team's trash was another's treasure. Guthrie became an Oriole Jan. 29, 2007 and his career would soon take an upward swing.
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Jeremy Guthrie's record is sketchy, but his other numbers are all solid.
(US Presswire)
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Guthrie broke camp with Baltimore in '07, but began the season as a reliever -- a role he held unsuccessfully with Cleveland after struggling as a starter in the minors. Baltimore didn't envision Guthrie as a career reliever, and by May of last season he was added to the rotation. Guthrie posted a 3.44 ERA in 26 starts as a rookie and revived a career that was headed in the wrong direction.
There were no questions entering 2008. Guthrie was not only going to be in the rotation, but play the role of ace for a rebuilding organization after Baltimore shipped last season's star pitcher -- Erik Bedard -- to the Mariners. Guthrie has met expectations with a 3.58 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.
Here comes the kicker. In 39 starts with Baltimore, Guthrie has just eight wins. He is winning just 20.5 percent of the time.
"I know Guthrie as well as anybody," manager Dave Trembley told MLB.com. "Guthrie is as tough as nails. Guthrie is the epitome of a team guy. Guthrie doesn't get all wrapped up in winning and losing and all that. Guthrie is all about doing the best he can all the time and the things that are out of his control ... I don't think those things bother him."
The Orioles have scored a total of eight runs in Guthrie's six losses this season. They have scored two or fewer runs in six of his 13 starts. He has just two wins in 11 starts in which he has allowed three or fewer earned runs. And it's not like he is having short outings. He has failed to go six innings just three times.
"It seems like every game Guthrie pitches is also a well-pitched game on the other side," Trembley said. "It's just worked out that way. All the games are close for him. He takes you late into every ballgame, but for whatever reason, we're just not scoring any runs when he's out there."
Lack of run support is nothing new to Guthrie. He closed out 2007 by going nine starts without a win. He allowed three earned runs or less in 21 of his 26 starts during his rookie season, but Baltimore went 4-11 when he pitched in a game decided by two runs or less. Guthrie went 2-4 with 11 no decisions in those games.
"Last year, I got no decisions for the most part," Guthrie told MLB.com. "This year I feel like I'm throwing the ball very similar -- consistent. This year, I'm taking losses instead of no-decisions."
The only other pitcher who is deserving of as much compassion is Aaron Harang. The Reds pitcher is 2-8 in '08 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Yet, he is owned in 96 percent of Fantasy leagues and Guthrie is owned in 50 percent of leagues.
Guthrie has erased memories of being a first-round washout. He has rekindled the magic that made him a standout at Stanford and a three-time MLB draftee (15th round in 1997 by the Mets and 3rd round in 2001 by the Pirates before Cleveland drafted him in '02).
"You enjoy the opportunity to be in a scuffle, to be in a fight," Guthrie said. "Personally, I'm able to be in one of those -- it seems like -- every five days, where every pitch matters, where every at-bat is big. You enjoy that and that's what makes this game fun."
Call to the Bench -- We feel this player might be worthy of adding to Fantasy rosters for the long haul
Salomon Torres, RP, Milwaukee
Owned: 49 percent of leagues
Analysis: Eric Gagne's days as Milwaukee's closer are numbered. While Gagne sits on the 15-day DL with shoulder problems, Torres is blowing away hitters and making skipper Ned Yost very happy. Yost said Tuesday that he is open to the idea of keeping Torres as the closer, even when Gagne returns from the disabled list. Torres has been 5-for-5 in save chances since taking over the closer's role in late May and hasn't allowed a run in seven outings dating back to May 20. Torres has past experience as a closer, netting 12 saves in both 2006 and 2007 for Pittsburgh. The right-hander is worth using as a stopgap option in Fantasy leagues, but he could be much more in the end.
You're Out! -- We feel this player might have already peaked and his value could be on the decline, so Fantasy owners might want to cut bait ASAP
Trevor Hoffman, RP, San Diego
Owned: 80 percent of leagues
Analysis: While were on the topic of closers, it's time for Fantasy owners to start shopping the future Hall of Famer. It would not surprise if 2008 was his final season in the majors. He is simply wearing down. Scouts have already said that Hoffman has lost his edge on the mound. He is basically throwing batting practice and it's a big reason why his ERA stands at 5.40 through Wednesday. He has made 21 appearances in '08 and has allowed at least one run seven times. He has just seven "clean" outings. He can't even call Petco Park as home-field advantage. He is 0-3 with a 5.27 ERA in 14 outings there this season. San Diego isn't proving to be much of a contender at this juncture, and if that trend continues, the saves could become infrequent for the all-time saves leader.
GIDPs -- We feel this player might not warrant as much Fantasy consideration as he is receiving and should be avoided in most instances
Chris Coste, C, Philadelphia
Owned: 12 percent of leagues
Analysis: Coste clearly seems to have the hot bat among the Philadelphia catchers. He has three homers in his last six games and is hitting .317 on the season. Carlos Ruiz wishes he had that much success at the plate. However, Philadelphia isn't ready to name Coste a full-time starter, and how all of a sudden can a journeyman minor leaguer be ready to wreak havoc in the majors at 35? Philadelphia has kept him in a backup role since 2006, and if they thought he could handle big league responsibilities, he would have come into the season with that role. Coste might be nothing more than a No. 2 Fantasy catcher in Rotisserie leagues.
Scouting -- We feel this player is on the verge of being a Fantasy reliable option, but still needs to be monitored over the next few weeks
Adam Eaton, SP, Philadelphia
Owned: 7 percent of leagues
Analysis: It took nearly 18 months, but Eaton is finally starting to pitch like a $24 million man. He has won his last two starts and has posted a 3.45 ERA in his last five outings. He has also managed to last at least six innings in three straight starts. If he ever finds long-term consistency, Eaton could be a 15-game winner with the Philadelphia offense backing him. However, amid his recent success, we warn Fantasy owners that Eaton has never pitched 200 innings in his career. The right-hander has a history of injury problems; he holds a 4.72 career ERA; and batters usually feast on his pitches (1.41 career WHIP). Eaton is doing a solid job right now attacking the zone, but how long it lasts is anybody's guess.
Stopgap corner -- We feel this player might be worth using for the upcoming scoring period
Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Cincinnati
Owned: 64 percent of leagues
Analysis: The streaky slugger is starting to get hot at the plate again. He homered in consecutive games Monday and Tuesday, and has raised his batting average nine points in the last six games. Encarnacion started the season with just two hits in his first eight games before hitting safely in 18 of the last 20 April games. He had an awful May, hitting only .172. The Dominican native has trouble at times recognizing pitches. He chases a lot of pitches out of the zone, but it's the times he is patient that really pay off for Fantasy owners. We foresee a love/hate relationship between Encarnacion and Fantasy owners throughout his career. He is probably going to hit around .270 on most seasons and max out at 25 homers, if he is lucky. Simply put: Encarnacion is a solid reserve Fantasy 3B to start when he is hot.
Farm Boys -- This segment is for those long-term keeper owners looking for the next Fantasy superstar
Dallas McPherson, 3B, Florida
Owned: 2 percent of leagues
Analysis: McPherson is finally healthy and back to his slugging ways. Too bad his stats aren't counting in Fantasy. The 27-year-old third baseman hit his 19th home run for Triple-A Albuquerque Tuesday. He also has a .282 average and 42 RBI on the season. The Angels cut ties with one of their former top prospects when he had trouble staying healthy. McPherson dealt with an injury during the spring and that's how he found his way to the minors. Well, with what he has done thus far, Florida is probably itching to pick up that phone and call Albuquerque. The only problem: Jorge Cantu is doing a fine job at the plate and at third for the Marlins. There are just not everyday at-bats for McPherson. We believe he will be up at some point in 2008, so stashing McPherson in NL-only leagues is a viable option.
Doctor's Report -- This segment highlights a player on the verge of coming off the DL and ready to make an immediate Fantasy impact.
Joel Zumaya, RP, Detroit
Owned: 8 percent of leagues
Analysis: Zumaya made his first rehab stint with Class A Lakeland Tuesday and literally blew away everyone in attendance. Zumaya touched 100 mph on the radar gun, this coming after having major surgery on his pitching shoulder. Most pitchers lose velocity after a shoulder operation, but Zumaya showed no such signs Tuesday. The team said he needs at least two more rehab outings before they even think about recalling the right-hander. But one thing is clear: If Zumaya maintains velocity in the high 90s, we should see him in the closer's role later this summer. The aging Todd Jones is struggling with a 4.95 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, and having a flame thrower like Zumaya at the back end of the bullpen will strike fear into the opposition.
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