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Scott White

Dear Mr. Fantasy: Wheelin' and dealin'

By | Fantasy Writer


We've reached a point in the season where comparing some of this year's breakouts -- guys like Carlos Quentin and Edinson Volquez -- to some of its slow-starting studs -- guys like Prince Fielder and Curtis Granderson -- can get a bit tricky. On the one hand, you don't want to give up on the studs too early. On the other hand, you don't quite trust the breakouts. What do you do?

You ask Mr. Fantasy, of course.

Scott -- trade question for you. My hitting is solid, but my pitching is rocky. I could potentially deal Prince Fielder and receive Carlos Quentin and John Lackey. I'm close to pulling the trigger. My offense has done well apart from Fielder's power outage. Quentin is on fire, and Lackey would help my pitching. But is giving up Fielder too much in a keeper league? I want to win this year since I'm on top right now, but I don't want to mortgage my team's power. Help! -- Ed, Portland, Ore.

SW: If you need pitching, you obviously have to make this deal. Look, I have as much confidence in the return of Fielder's power as anybody. He entered Tuesday with four homers in his last nine games, already showing signs of a turnaround. But I have just as much confidence in Quentin's breakthrough. His minor-league numbers and scouting reports pointed to it, and we probably would have seen it last year in Arizona if not for his shoulder injury. And really, Quentin has just as much keeper potential as Fielder. He's less than two years older and doesn't have all that excess body weight to wear out his knees. I wouldn't balk at trading Fielder for Lackey straight up, depending on need, so getting Lackey and a hitter potentially as good as Quentin is an easy call.

There is a Fantasy owner who offers a trade at least once a day for Chase Utley. I have offered him Utley and Jacoby Ellsbury for Josh Hamilton and Brandon Phillips, but he keeps trying to offer Dustin Pedroia or several variations instead of Phillips, and I reject it. Am I being too hard on him, and is my deal a fair one? -- Mark Caissey

SW: The deal you proposed is certainly fair. Phillips doesn't rate far behind Utley, but Pedroia sure does -- too far to justify any potential gain from exchanging Ellsbury for Hamilton. That said, your opponent has every right to reject the trade, regardless of fairness. Maybe he thinks having both Utley and Phillips is his whole key to winning, meaning he won't include Phillips in the deal under any circumstances. I could see that. Of course, if you've already told him you won't trade Utley unless he includes Phillips and he just keeps badgering you with unwanted trade proposals, you could always just stop answering them. I personally hate when people don't respond to trade proposals, but if a pest won't listen to reason, you don't have much choice.

Would you trade Scott Kazmir or Edinson Volquez for Ian Kinsler or Brandon Phillips? If so, what's the best possible combination? -- Don Burgess

SW: Sure, a near-elite starting pitcher for a near-elite second baseman -- if you have a need, why not? Ideally, you'd send Volquez for Phillips -- I trust Kazmir's slow rise to acedom more than Volquez's sudden explosion, and Phillips has more of a track record than Kinsler -- but I wouldn't nix any particular combination.

I currently have Ryan Franklin, Brian Fuentes and Dan Wheeler. Do you think Franklin will hold on to his job? Will Fuentes get traded? How long until Troy Percival comes back? Who should I sell high on? Who will give me the best value the rest of the season? -- Dave, New York

SW: And the award for most efficient line of questioning goes to Dave. Let's see if I can make my answers just as succinct.

Some owners are trying to cash in on Jay Bruce's fast start. (AP)  
Some owners are trying to cash in on Jay Bruce's fast start. (AP)  
No, I don't think Franklin will remain the closer. He's proven himself capable of handling the role in short spurts, but Jason Isringhausen deserves a second chance when he gets off the DL and will likely thrive once he gets it. With the Rockies falling out of contention and Fuentes one of the better left-handers in the league, I suppose a trade is possible, but I couldn't even begin to predict one just yet. The Rays talk like Percival will return by the end of the week, so Wheeler is quickly running out of appeal. Of the three pitchers you listed, I think only Fuentes keeps closing, making him the one you want. As for selling high, you might as well try shopping Franklin just to see if you can find a non-believer in Isringhausen. You don't have much time, though.

I am in a 16-team Head-to-Head league with some other quality owners, so for the most part, the best juice has already been squeezed. I was lucky (or wise) enough to pick up Jay Bruce earlier this year and held on to him long enough to see him blossom. I had an owner offer me Brandon Webb and Michael Cuddyer for Bruce and Ken Griffey. Should I pull the trigger on this one? -- Dan O'Neil, Louisville, Ky.

SW: It depends somewhat on need, of course, but I pretty much always want the side of the deal that lands the best player. Webb is clearly that. Bruce has crazy upside but also a lot of learning to do at age 21. He's already begun to come back down to earth, entering Tuesday batting .231 (6-for-26) over his last six games. Meanwhile, Webb looks like he'll capture his second Cy Young award this year and is currently our No. 1 ranked Fantasy starting pitcher. Don't turn down the best pitcher in baseball for an unproven 21-year-old. As for Cuddyer and Griffey, I prefer Griffey, but not by enough to ruin the deal.

I am in a quite psychotic, cutthroat 20-team keeper league. I have Wandy Rodriguez, John Danks and Armando Galarraga. Of the three, who is the best option to keep and the best to trade? -- Corey

SW: I love Rodriguez. I want him on any and all of my Fantasy teams that have a bench, even the 10-team ones. Of course, my fondness has more to do with predictability than talent. Since the beginning of the 2007 season, Rodriguez has a 2.48 ERA at home and a 6.01 ERA on the road, meaning you know exactly when to start him and when not to. He's as idiot-proof as pitchers come and worth owning for that reason. And who knows? He might go Ervin Santana on us and learn how to pitch on the road. As for the pitcher to trade, I'd shop Galarraga. Because of Jeremy Bonderman's injury, he gets to keep his spot in the rotation, which might generate some buzz and allow you to "sell high" on him, in a way. Also, I like Danks' upside more.

I'm in a 12-team Head-to-Head mixed league and don't know which outfielders to start. I have Matt Holliday, Josh Hamilton, Hunter Pence, Carlos Gomez and J.D. Drew and can start four of them. -- Kyle Sullivan, Healdsburg, Calif.

SW: In a Head-to-Head league, I have hard time believing Gomez is doing anything for you, considering the diminished value of steals. And even if your league awards two points for steals, he's stolen only one base since May 11. Holliday, Hamilton and Pence are obvious must-starts, so don't even mess with them. For your fourth outfield spot, ride the hot hand of Drew and Gomez the rest of the way, meaning Drew for now.

I am currently sitting in fourth place and need help with my batting average, ERA and WHIP. I have tried to trade for pitching help, but nobody bites. I just dropped Chien-Ming Wang and added Josh Banks. Good or bad move? I also have Jay Bruce on my team. What should I expect in return for him as far as starting pitching goes? -- Mark R. James, Gibbsboro, N.J.

SW: Well, let's look at precedent. In this very same column, we've seen someone willing to trade Brandon Webb for Bruce. In an office league here, presumably a credible one, I know someone recently traded John Lackey for Bruce. So if you play your cards right, Mark, and find a prospect hound with a gaping void in his outfield, you could pretty much get any pitcher you want. As for your recent waiver transaction, let's not get silly. Wang has struggled of late, but he's also won 19 games each of the last two seasons. Banks has had a nice two-start run, but he's not Tim Lincecum or anything close to a top prospect. If Wang somehow went unclaimed after you dropped him, go back and undo what you did.

I currently own Edinson Volquez and Jacoby Ellsbury, both claimed off waivers, and am thinking of trading them for a stud bat. Do you think either of them will keep up his ridiculous pace? If not, I'd love to bundle them together for a top-tier hitter, such as Prince Fielder or someone else off to a slow start. -- Matt Fahlman, Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada

SW: Granted, it depends somewhat on your scoring format, but I don't think you'd even need to bundle them together. Whether you have your doubts about him or not, Volquez has entered the elite class of starting pitchers -- how could he not with a 1.56 ERA through the middle of June? -- and Ellsbury isn't exactly waiver fodder. You might overpay if you package the two for anything less than a legitimate first rounder, like Chase Utley or Hanley Ramirez.

I have been offered Hideki Matsui and Curtis Granderson for Jason Bay and Ian Kinsler. Is this a trade I should even consider since I think I have a stacked team already? -- Jason Soderholm

SW: Nothing wrong with improving an already good team, Jason, but you have the right idea in one respect. When you have a strong team, you have to approach trade offers with a higher level of scrutiny. You don't want to mess it up, after all. Fortunately, in this case, your opponent made your decision easy for you. By giving up Kinsler and Bay, you'd give up the best two players in the deal, and I can't think of a set of circumstances where you'd want to do that.

You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Dear Mr. Fantasy in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
A.J. Burnett
Yanks, Pirates still talking Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
2/12/2012
News: The New York Daily News reports the Yankees and Pirates continued to talk Sunday about completing a trade for A.J. Burnett, but a baseball source said the sides are still "a good ways away" from agreeing on the final terms. The source added the Pirates are willing to pay $10 million of the remaining $33 million Burnett is owed over the next two seasons, but Pittsburgh has offered "two borderline prospects" in return. The Yankees could be willing to pay more of Burnett's remaining contract if they receive a top-tier prospect from Pittsburgh. A person familiar with the Yankees' thinking believes there is enough common ground that a deal could be completed in the coming days. However, ESPN.com reports their source said the Yankees aren't desperate to make a trade and the team would go to spring training with Burnett if a deal isn't completed.
Analysis: Leaving the Yankees usually has a negative impact on a player's Fantasy value, but in Burnett's case it might be the opposite, especially if he moves to the NL. He has struggled to handle the pressure of pitching in New York and a fresh start could be what he needs. Burnett had some of his best years in the majors pitching in the NL. Still, Burnett would be nothing more than a risky late-round Fantasy pick in mixed leagues.

Josh Johnson
JJ continues to feel no discomfort
Josh Johnson, SP, MIA
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Marlins SP Josh Johnson arrived to the team's spring training complex in Jupiter, Fla., on Feb. 9, more than a week ahead of the Marlins reporting date for pitchers and catchers. Johnson, who has been throwing off a mound near his home in Las Vegas, threw his first bullpen session of the year in Florida on Feb. 10. He felt no discomfort and expects to be ready for the first workouts on Feb. 22. He made only nine starts last year because of shoulder issues.
Analysis: Any encouraging news regarding JJ is welcomed. But Fantasy owners do have to be aware of the risk of drafting him. Of course his potential makes it worth it, but JJ has made it past 30 starts just once in his career. Look to Johnson as more of a No. 2 Fantasy SP on Draft Day, but clearly he has the potential to be your ace if he can stay healthy.

Hunter Pence
Pence likely to hit cleanup
Hunter Pence, RF, PHI
2/12/2012
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports Phillies manager Charlie Manuel has to find a cleanup hitter with Ryan Howard expected to miss the beginning of the season recovering from an Achilles injury, and he said his choice going into spring training is Hunter Pence.
Analysis: Pence either hit right in front of or right behind Howard after his acquisition from Houston last season and thrived in the Phillies lineup. He will miss Howard's lineup protection, but might only have to play a month without Howard. In the meantime, Pence should get plenty of RBI chances batting cleanup, and he will still have plenty of lineup protection without Howard. Look to Pence in the early rounds of Fantasy drafts.

Jason Vargas
Vargas expected to pitch in A's series
Jason Vargas, SP, SEA
2/12/2012
News: Mariners manager Eric Wedge hinted Sunday that ace Felix Hernandez and Jason Vargas are the leading candidates to start the team's first two games against the A's in Japan. "That's one of the reasons we're here early, to make sure we get Felix ready and we're probably looking at Vargas right now in regard to the first couple games," Wedge said, as reported by MLB.com. "It is a little odd, but that's OK. That's part of it. We're professionals here and we have to get multiple starters prepared for the regular season. It's not just about those two guys, it's about everybody else as well. We've got a lot of starting pitchers here in camp and we'll see how it plays out. I'm looking forward to the competition."
Analysis: Believe it or not, but Vargas is arguably the M's second-best pitcher heading into spring training. He has been a steady part of the M's rotation the last two seasons. He is 19-25 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 63 starts since the beginning of the 2010 campaign. However, he is not a dominant pitcher and has weak strikeout totals, so Vargas is nothing more than a low-end Fantasy SP on Draft Day.

Felix Hernandez
King Felix likely to start game in Japan
Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA
2/12/2012
News: Mariners manager Eric Wedge hinted Sunday that ace Felix Hernandez and Jason Vargas are the leading candidates to start the team's first two games against the A's in Japan. "That's one of the reasons we're here early, to make sure we get Felix ready and we're probably looking at Vargas right now in regard to the first couple games," Wedge said, as reported by MLB.com. "It is a little odd, but that's OK. That's part of it. We're professionals here and we have to get multiple starters prepared for the regular season. It's not just about those two guys, it's about everybody else as well. We've got a lot of starting pitchers here in camp and we'll see how it plays out. I'm looking forward to the competition."
Analysis: Hernandez didn't repeat as the AL Cy Young winner in 2011, but he still had another solid season for Seattle. He went 14-14 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He also struck out 222 in 233 2/3 innings. His win-loss record would probably be way better on a top contender, but King Felix still does plenty for Fantasy owners to be considered a top 10 Fantasy SP on Draft Day.

Hisashi Iwakuma
Iwakuma says shoulder is fine
Hisashi Iwakuma, SP, SEA
2/12/2012
News: MLB.com reports Mariners SP Hisashi Iwakuma said his shoulder is fine after he was limited to 17 starts last season in Japan because of a sore right shoulder. "I talked to him at length a couple days ago," pitching coach Carl Willis said. "This is obviously all new to him being in the States for the first time, with a different routine pitching every fifth day instead of sixth or seventh. But he's not an 18-year-old kid either. He has a history of what he's done to get ready for a season and we'll talk daily. Really, at the outset it comes down to me listening to him, because he's the one who knows what he needs to do to get ready."
Analysis: Iwakuma had a 107-69 record in 226 career games in Japan. The right-hander was selected the 2008 Pacific League MVP and winner of the Eiji Sawamura Award (the equivalent of the Cy Young Award) after going 21-4 with a 1.87 ERA. Last season, Iwakuma went 6-7 with a 2.42 ERA and 90 strikeouts in 17 starts. While his numbers overseas are impressive, you know it has been hit or miss when it has come to Japanese pitchers in the majors. Even if Iwakuma lands a rotation spot with Seattle, you won't want to use more than a late-round flier on him.

Tim Hudson
Hudson cleared to increase throwing
Tim Hudson, SP, ATL
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Braves SP Tim Hudson, who is recovering from surgery to repair a disc in his back late in November, had been playing light catch in his yard until begin cleared by doctors this week to increase his throwing.
Analysis: The word around Braves camp is proceed with caution in regards to the veteran Hudson. Pretty much every important Braves official has said they won't rush the right-hander in his recovery, and Atlanta is willing to start the season without him if it comes to that. We will just have to see how he progresses this spring. Consider Hudson an injury-risk, mid-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day. Clearly, he can be a very productive Fantasy option when healthy.

Mike Minor
Minor having early control problems
Mike Minor, SP, ATL
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Braves SP Mike Minor, vying again this spring for the fifth starter's job, said, "All my pitches are everywhere right now." His says his arm feels good, but that it's lagging and he isn't following through. Fortunately, he knows the point of the Braves' early throwing program is to get these preseason inconsistencies out of the way.
Analysis: Minor is considered the favorite to win the final spot in the Braves' rotation over Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado. However, Minor might be needed at the start of the season regardless if Tim Hudson's recovery from back surgery doesn't go as planned. Minor kind of disappointed in 15 starts in 2011. In fact, he has just a 4.74 ERA in 24 outings (23 starts) as a major leaguer and hasn't shown the same type of dominance he did in the minors. Still, the Braves have high hopes for the lefty and aren't giving up on him just yet. If Minor does make the rotation this spring, then look to him as a late-round Fantasy option in deep formats.

Craig Kimbrel
Kimbrel working on changeup
Craig Kimbrel, RP, ATL
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Braves RP Craig Kimbrel is working on locating his changeup, which he may use during the season if he's able to master it. But even if it's not ready for prime time, throwing it helps stretch him out for his fastball. He has yet to throw his curveball.
Analysis: While Kimbrel struggled at the end of the 2011 season, he still dominated hitters for most of the season on his way to winning NL rookie of the year honors. It's good that he is working to get better, but he shouldn't have to change too much since he has been a smash hit since debuting in 2010. Kimbrel is a must-own Fantasy RP and will likely be the first RP selected in many drafts this spring.

Roy Oswalt
Phillies not in running for Oswalt?
Roy Oswalt, SP, PHI
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. defused a FOXSports.com report that his team remained in the hunt to re-sign Roy Oswalt. "We really don't have any room for him," Amaro told MLB.com. "We have five, six starters, and our resources are about where we want to be right now. I think he wouldn't mind coming back, but I don't know that's feasible or a real possibility."
Analysis: The Phillies surfaced as a possible destination for Oswalt after rumors surfaced again that the team wanted to trade Joe Blanton. It seems the Phillies have no immediate plans to bring Oswalt aboard, but we will have to continue to track his offseason progress. Fortunately, all of the teams linked to Oswalt are expected contenders, but even so, Oswalt would be at best a No. 4 Fantasy SP given his chronic back woes and declining numbers.

 
 
 
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