We are a few weeks removed from the 2008 MLB amateur draft and by now baseball aficionados are eager to see how well this year's bonus babies (first-round picks) perform. In fact, we are enthusiastically anticipating the first arrivals from the 2007 class thanks to No. 1 overall pick David Price, who is mowing down Class A hitters at an unreal pace.
The development of high-end prospects is exhilarating, but it's the stories like Mike Aviles' rise from the shadows that can captivate an audience.
In case you missed it, Aviles has been on an absolute tear since he was inserted into Kansas City's starting lineup in early June. He is hitting .306 this month in 49 at-bats. He has five doubles, one triple, three homers, six RBI and one stolen base. This coming after hitting .336 with Triple-A Omaha through May and being named the Royals' Minor League Player of the Year in 2007 -- for a second time -- as he hit .296 with 27 doubles, six triples, 17 homers and 77 RBI.
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Aviles is likely going to get every chance to succeed now that he's in K.C.
(AP)
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The Royals appear to have gotten great value when they drafted the 5-11, 193-pound infielder in 2003. He was a seventh round pick out of Division II Concordia (N.Y.) College. He was the D-II Player of the Year as a senior, leading that level in batting (.500), slugging (1.016), home runs (22) and runs scored (84). Kansas City valued his skills with a $1,000 signing bonus.
"What are you going to do?" Aviles told Baseball America in 2003 about the disappointment of a skimpy bonus. "I finally got my shot and am taking advantage of it."
He did just that. Right out of college, Aviles earned MVP honors of the Rookie-level Arizona League.
"He would have been a top prospect if he were 19, but not 22," one AZL coach told BA back in 2003.
Aviles, the nephew of former major leaguer Ramon (who played for Boston and Philadelphia), won his first Royals' Player of the Year award in '03 for his work out in Arizona. He was first introduced to the Kansas City faithful later that year in an awards ceremony at Kauffman Stadium.
"This is where I want to be," Aviles told BA on that night. "I'm going to play here someday; I don't care what it takes."
He wasn't lying. It took a few years and 313 games at Omaha since 2006, but Aviles made his major league debut May 29. It was at Kauffman Stadium and the Manhattan, N.Y., native was hitless in three at-bats. But in his next appearance at Yankee Stadium, not far from where he grew up, he began to take off. He went 2-for-3 and hasn't stopped hitting. The highlight of his run was a 4-for-5 performance Saturday against Arizona, which included a home run off future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson.
Aviles, who labored in the minors while improving his defense, has executed so well the last few weeks that the Royals have inserted him at shortstop over the struggling Tony Pena.
"We'll keep going with it as long as he continues to perform," manager Trey Hillman told MLB.com.
The Royals haven't had great fortunes in recent seasons with homegrown players and immediate success. Alex Gordon, arguably their prized prospect, hasn't yet lived up to the hype. Luke Hochevar, their top young arm, is having a turbulent first season in the rotation. And the team ended up optioning Billy Butler back to Omaha after he struggled following a 13-game hitting streak to open the season.
All Kansas City and Fantasy owners can do now is hope that Aviles early success isn't a mirage.
"I think he's a guy that you've got to give a little more time to," Hillman said. "You might just grade his tools and say, 'Well, we're not real sure what we've got,'. But then you put him in there and let him go and you might have something special before you know it."
Call to the Bench -- We feel this player might be worthy of adding to Fantasy rosters for the long haul
Chase Headley, 3B, San Diego
Owned: 46 percent of leagues
Analysis: Fantasy owners appear to be a bit hesitant to scoop Headley off waivers, but San Diego brought this kid up for good Tuesday and will give him every chance to play. Headley will see a majority of starts in left field and even grab a few starts at third behind Kevin Kouzmanoff. Headley is a solid switch hitter with power and is well along in his progression coming from the college ranks (Tennessee). Were not projecting Ryan Braun rookie numbers and playing in Petco Park isn't ideal, but Headley is a solid prospect and worthy of a flier in most Fantasy formats.
You're Out! -- We feel this player might have already peaked and his value could be on the decline, so Fantasy owners might want to cut bait ASAP
Bill Hall, 3B, Milwaukee
Owned: 34 percent of leagues
Analysis: Frustration has set in for Hall and now Fantasy owners can join in the agony. Hall lost his everyday third base job because of his inability to hit right-handed pitching consistently (.158). When Rickie Weeks went down with injury, a full-time position opened at second for Hall to re-emerge as an everyday player. Not the case. The Brewers started Craig Counsell at second instead. If that isn't a slap in the face, then what is? Hall has been clamoring to cut ties with Milwaukee and Fantasy owners should do the same with the struggling infielder.
GIDPs -- We feel this player might not warrant as much Fantasy consideration as he is receiving and should be avoided in most instances
Russell Branyan, 3B, Milwaukee
Owned: 9 percent of leagues
Analysis: While were talking about the Brewers, Branyan was the reason Bill Hall got bumped from third base. Milwaukee management felt the lineup needed some new energy and turned to Branyan, who was toiling at Triple-A Nashville. Branyan has met management's expectations. He has nine homers in 59 at-bats through Wednesday and is hitting better than .300. Branyan has never had a power problem in his career; it's the hole in his swing that's holding him back. Branyan whiffs too many times to remain consistent at the plate. It might be only a matter of time before Milwaukee promotes 3B prospect Matthew Gamel or shifts Ryan Braun back to third to clear the way for Matt LaPorta in left field.
Scouting -- We feel this player is on the verge of being a Fantasy reliable option, but still needs to be monitored over the next few weeks
Kenny Rogers, SP, Detroit
Owned: 40 percent of leagues
Analysis: Who says a 43-year-old pitcher can't perform in the majors? Rogers is putting all the doubters to bed with his latest run. He has a 1.76 ERA in his last six starts and has allowed a total of four earned runs in his last five appearances. He has pitched seven innings or better in each of those five outings. However, we caution Fantasy owners since Rogers had a 6.66 ERA through his first 10 starts and is still not a strikeout pitcher. The allure of pitching for an offensively gifted team like the Tigers is intriguing, but Rogers has a checkered injury past and could wear down as the summer approaches.
Stopgap corner -- We feel this player might be worth using for the upcoming scoring period
Brandon Morrow, RP, Seattle
Owned: 58 percent of leagues
Analysis: Morrow struggled like many rookies with his first taste of major league action last season. He went 3-4 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. His only positive is that he struck out 66 batters in 63 1/3 innings. Whatever the right-hander did in the offseason to improve, it has worked. He has a 0.90 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 20 innings. He also has 30 strikeouts. The Mariners were kicking around the idea of moving Morrow into the rotation later this season, but decided to keep him in the bullpen. Since J.J. Putz went back on the DL, Morrow has been the Mariners' choice to close games. He has two saves since June 11 and hasn't allowed an earned run in 13 straight outings. Morrow, the Mariners' first-round pick in 2006 (fifth overall), is the real deal. He progressed every year he pitched at Cal and is following a similar track record in the pros. The only problem is that Putz will regain his closer's role as soon as he is healthy.
Farm Boys -- This segment is for those long-term keeper owners looking for the next Fantasy superstar
Chris Volstad, SP, Florida
Owned: 3 percent of leagues
Analysis: The Marlins selected Volstad in the first round of the 2005 draft (16th overall) with hopes he would one day anchor the rotation. The intimidating 6-7 right-hander is still progressing down that path and his MLB debut is likely to come in 2008. Volstad dealt with a minor triceps strain in early June, but returned to the hill on June 13. He lasted four innings and allowed one run while striking out four. The injury pushed back his debut as now Ryan Tucker is situated at the back end of the Marlins' rotation. Still, Volstad is 3-2 with a 2.92 ERA in 12 starts this season. He has 50 strikeouts in 74 innings and is holding opponents to a .234 average. The Marlins have not been afraid to promote pitchers from Double-A and Volstad should get a taste of the majors this season in preparation for 2009. He is worth stashing in all NL-only Fantasy leagues and larger long-term keeper formats.
Doctor's Report -- This segment highlights a player on the verge of coming off the DL and ready to make an immediate Fantasy impact.
Carlos Pena, 1B, Tampa Bay
Owned: 58 percent of leagues
Analysis: The Rays slugging first baseman, who is on the 15-day DL with a finger injury, hopes to dress by the end of a six-game road trip during Fantasy Week 13 (June 23-29). Pena has been able to take dry swings as his fractured left index finger heals. The team hasn't said if he will need a rehab assignment, but even if he does, it could be very short. Pena has struggled some at the plate in 2008 (.227 average), but he is still showing great power (11 homers). Pena should be in for a solid summer now that the Rays have legitimate lineup protection.
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