By the Numbers: Control yourself!
By Al Melchior | Special to CBSSports.com Follow AlFollow CBS Fantasy Baseball
Carlos Zambrano's trip to the disabled list has been a real downer for his owners, most of whom are using up a reserve slot on him and many of whom have dropped him altogether. Then again, in Fantasy sports, one owner's misfortune is another's windfall. Owners in 16 percent of CBSSports.com leagues have added Zambrano's replacement, Sean Marshall, to their Fantasy staff in the past week. In his first start since his callup, Marshall gave owners seven Ks in just 4 2/3 innings, but he also coughed up four runs on seven hits. Zambrano may return as soon as July 4, so Marshall's stay in the Cubs' rotation could be short-lived.
Assuming, however, that Marshall gets another start beyond his next one this Sunday, can owners expect him to be a reliable source for strikeouts? He was averaging 7.1 K/9 in Triple-A Iowa prior to his recall, but Marshall had failed to break the 6.0 K/9 barrier in both of his previous big league seasons. There is just not enough of a track record yet to give owners the confidence that Marshall will be a big league strikeout artist. He also hasn't shown much evidence that he can compensate for mediocre strikeout numbers with great control or low HR/9 rates. Owners looking for a starting pitcher for Week 14 would be better off trying to nab Zambrano and leaving Marshall for someone else to claim.
More guys in demand
Seth McClung, SP, Milwaukee
Week 13 Ownership: 7 percent
Week 14 Ownership: 20 percent
Rank in NL Most Added: 3rd
The Skinny: Here is a pitcher who desperately needed a change of scenery. Rays fans know the McClung saga well. Seth goes to Triple-A, blows away hitters, gets recalled, suddenly can't throw strikes, gets demoted, blows away hitters, and so on. He's had much better luck (and skill) throwing his brand of hard cheese in America's Dairyland. Since joining the Brewers' rotation in late May, McClung has gone 4-2 and has given up more than two runs in only one of his six starts. Excluding that one bad start, he has struck out 23 batters and walked only six in 29 2/3 innings. Sure, this is a very small sample, but he's already had enough success with the Brew Crew to make Rays fans grimace.
McClung has already made a believer out of Fantasy owners in one out of five leagues on CBSSports.com, but has he shown enough to convince the other four? A 25 percent H/BIP rate suggests that McClung's 1.24 WHIP will see some inflation, but his 3.35 ERC says that there is room for his ERA to shrink. The key for McClung to maintain his current level of value is whether he can sustain the improvements in his control. Piling up walks has consistently been a problem, so I would want to see more than a handful of starts with low walk totals before buying in, at least for a mixed league team. Scout McClung's next two or three starts before bestowing him with a spot on your active roster.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | H/BIP | ERC |
| 2006 | Tampa Bay | 5.9 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 32% | 6.44 |
| 2007 | Durham (Triple-A) | 6.6 | 10.4 | 0.5 | N/A | N/A |
| 2008 | Milwaukee | 4.1 | 7.2 | 1.2 | 25% | 3.35 |
Elijah Dukes, OF, Washington
Week 13 Ownership: 12 percent
Week 14 Ownership: 23 percent
Rank in NL Most Added: 5th
The Skinny: Just a couple of weeks ago, I included Dukes on my list of "poor stats, poor skills" hitters. Since then, his stats have definitely improved, as his OPS has climbed from .625 to .775 and RC/27 has improved by a run and a half. His skill numbers, such as Whiff Rate and Isolated Power, have also improved over the last couple of weeks, though not to the degree that you would expect such a dramatic improvement in production and a five percentage point increase in H/BIP. Even if Dukes were displaying a higher level of offensive skill in recent weeks, the longer term trends are discouraging. Since last season, his strikeouts are up but power is down. Like recession and inflation, these two things don't typically go together, but when they do, there is cause for concern. As with McClung, until we see a longer history of skill improvement, there is little reason to roster Dukes.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2006 | Durham (Triple-A) | 13% | 17% | 0.195 | 32% | N/A |
| 2007 | Tampa Bay | 15% | 24% | 0.201 | 19% | 3.7 |
| 2008 | Washington | 15% | 30% | 0.136 | 36% | 5.4 |
Others drawing interest
| Rank | Player | Week 13 ownership | Week 14 ownership | Percentage change |
| 1 | Russell Branyan, 3B, Milwaukee | 14% | 30% | 16% |
| 1 | Sean Marshall, SP, Chicago Cubs | 1% | 17% | 16% |
| 4 | Kyle Lohse, SP, St. Louis | 66% | 78% | 12% |
The guys dropping like flies
Chris Snyder, C, Arizona
Week 12 Ownership: 66 percent
Week 13 Ownership: 59 percent
Rank in NL Most Dropped: 1st
The Skinny: Snyder has had a miserable June, hitting just .208 and knocking in only six runs. Owners are losing patience, and Snyder now has his lowest ownership numbers since Week 7. Oddly enough, Snyder has hit for more power and made contact more frequently during this month than he did in April and May. As you might suspect, he has been victimized by a low H/BIP rate that does not coincide with a decline in his skills. Only 20 percent of the balls Snyder has hit in play in June have become base hits, which is awfully strange for someone who has a .207 Isolated Power average during the same time period. If you are still a Snyder owner, hang onto him, because his batting average will rise again.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2006 | Arizona | 11% | 21% | 0.147 | 32% | 5.1 |
| 2007 | Arizona | 11% | 21% | 0.181 | 28% | 5.0 |
| 2008 | Arizona | 12% | 28% | 0.201 | 30% | 5.2 |
Others wearing roster repellant
| Rank | Player | Week 13 ownership | Week 14 ownership | Percentage change |
| 1 | Bronson Arroyo, SP, Cincinnati | 66% | 59% | - 7% |
| 1 | Andrew Miller, SP, Florida | 61% | 54% | - 7% |
| 3 | Mark DeRosa, 2B, Chicago Cubs | 89% | 83% | - 6% |
| 3 | Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, San Diego | 63% | 57% | - 6% |
| 3 | Brian Giles, OF, San Diego | 49% | 43% | - 6% |
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
