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Eric Mack

Week 14 Fantasy Stockwatch

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Every Monday we'll take a look at the Fantasy Baseball gainers and decliners in our Fantasy Stockwatch.

This week's potential 'Buy Guys'

1B Chris Davis, TEX
Somehow top prospect hype has skipped over this future masher. Davis has homered in each of his first two starts after the team gave him a call-up last week amid Hank Blalock's (wrist) latest setback. They said Davis would be around temporarily, but this huge bat is good enough to stick around for good. The next Mark Teixeira strikes out once a game like many young sluggers, but he had hit a combined .333 with 23 homers, 73 RBI, 68 runs, seven steals, a .386 OBP and a .643 SLUG in 297 at-bats between Double- and Triple-A. Start him in all AL-only leagues and take the flier in any mixed league immediately. It might be too late.
SP Chris Young, SD
It was thought Albert Pujols might have knocked him out for the year, but now Young is looking at being able to return after the All-Star break. The Padres don't figure to score a lot of runs or win enough games to make him much more than a .500 pitcher, but Rotisserie leagues will like his steadiness. His ownership will steadily rise from his season-low 37 percent currently to around 90 percent once he returns.
OF Jason Kubel, MIN
Amid the Twins' surprising run in the AL Central is the long overdue development of Kubel as a Fantasy gem. He doesn't figure to become the .300-30-100-100 player we once thought he was capable of being, but his strong June (.329-6-15-21) has him on pace for .268-23-82-81. That makes him useful in most mixed leagues now, especially amid this hot stretch. He is far too talented and hot to be owned in just 36 percent of CBSSports.com's leagues.
3B Evan Longoria, TB
Remember when this Fantasy scribe suggested dealing Jay Bruce when he was hot for this Rays rookie? No? Your bad. Longoria is mashing away right now, going .309-8-19-19 in June, and making those Arizona Fall League scouts who said he would hit 30 homers this season look brilliant. Scouts are always way smarter than a Fantasy player and even the writers, so we all would be wise to listen to them. Longoria is a must-start in all leagues right now.
OF Jeff Francoeur, ATL
Yes, we can read the stat sheet. Frenchy is lost right now. But we think this presents you with a unique opportunity to get him on the cheap. Reports of his vision problems -- he apparently is using a contact in one eye at night -- might be related to his struggles, but we are blind supporters of this potential star. Take a chance on him while he is cheap.

Some more 'Buy Guys' we couldn't fit in: SP Kevin Slowey, MIN; SP Carlos Carrasco, PHI; SP Josh Johnson, FLA; 3B Dallas McPherson, FLA; OF Jeremy Hermida, FLA; OF Moises Alou, NYM; SP Collin Balester, WAS; OF Elijah Dukes, TB; OF Roger Bernadina, WAS; OF Austin Kearns, WAS; OF Brett Gardner, NYY; SS Rafael Furcal, LAD; OF Andruw Jones, LAD; OF John Bowker, SF; 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, SD; 1B Todd Helton, COL; OF Brad Hawpe, COL; 2B Alexei Ramirez, CHW; DH Jim Thome, CHW; SP Jonathan Sanchez, SF

This week's potential 'Goodbye Guys'

SP Pedro Martinez, NYM
The velocity is topping out around 90 mph, which is actually extraordinary news for the future Hall of Famer, but Peedy is looking like a Fantasy waste right now. There are reports he is tipping his pitches, namely his once immeasureable changeup, but until he posts a string of quality starts in a row, he is a candidate to sell. His name should generate interest at least, because there could be someone who expects him to be a consistent winner in the second half. We just can't see it right now.
SP Brett Myers, PHI
Mr. Myers, careful what you wish for. Myers came into spring saying he would have preferred to remain a reliever. Now he might get his wish, but as little more than a setup man. The only reason the struggling Myers is still starting is the fact the Phillies just don't have a viable rotation replacement. Now, with old setup man Tom Gordon struggling and uttering the words dead arm, the Phillies are certainly tempted to make Myers a setup man. That would all but ruin Myers in Fantasy leagues. Pitchers who don't start or close just don't have much Fantasy value outside of the deepest of Rotisserie leagues.
OF Nate McLouth, PIT
Hey! Remember when McLouth was the No. 2 player in Fantasy behind Lance Berkman? Remember, too, that same time we had him as the No. 1 "Goodbye Guy?" And remember all you know-it-alls who e-mailed this writer to call him crazy for it? Well, you were 50 percent correct. This writer is crazy, but McLouth was due for a fall and is now looking more like the Fantasy outfielder his career path suggested he would be. Continue to sell; he is not a buy-low candidate.
OF Juan Pierre, LAD
Just when Fantasy owners were happy to have the slap-hitting, but base-stealing, Pierre again, he goes and bangs up his knee and needs his first DL stint of his career. You had to figure he would need some kind of cooling off period. Basestealers 30 years old and over are obvious injury risks, and now Pierre has a bum wheel that will sideline him for weeks. Also, it might limit him even when he can return come August. Also, and we realize he stinks at the plate but he has a great glove, Andruw Jones will be back once Pierre is ready to play again. That means Pierre won't return to full-time duty necessarily. He will have to fit into a 4-for-3 spots rotation with Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and Jones.
RP Trevor Hoffman, SD
While we list Hoffman's stock down (no kidding?), we will give you a number of ways to still get something for baseball's all-time saves leader. OK, that latter point is one reason someone might still buy. Further, the return of Jake Peavy and anticipated post-break return of Chris Young, along with the arrival and development of Chase Headley, should help Hoffman get more save chances in the second half. Even with all that said, we still would sell Hell's Bells.

Some more potential 'Goodbye Guys' we couldn't fit in: 3B Chipper Jones, ATL; OF Wily Mo Pena, WAS; OF Eric Byrnes, ARI; UTL Jeff Baker, COL; OF Angel Pagan, NYM; SP Jamie Moyer, PHI; SP Darrell Rasner, NYY; RP George Sherrill, BAL; SS Clint Barmes, COL; OF Michael Cuddyer, MIN.

Stock advisor

Allan (self-proclaimed genius) Tamarkin: Gentlemen, looks like you missed the boat on Chris Davis, Rangers. For two reasons (1) He has been pounding the ball at Double- and Triple-A. (2) Of all the pounders he was the mostly likely to be called up compared to other pounders like Matt LaPorta and Matthew Gamel. I picked him up last Monday.

Emack: Good work Allan, but why don't you read the Prospects Report? Davis has been oft-mentioned there.

Mike Connolly, Old Bridge, N.J.: I was thinking about picking up Aubrey Huff and dropping Todd Helton in my 10-team Head-to-Head league. You have Huff on the upside and my team needs more offense, but I keep holding on to Helton thinking the hits will start to fall and he will at least get closer to his career .330 average. What do you think?

Emack: Helton can hit .300, but with only 15 homers on the high end now. Huff is much better in the power categories and likely to outscore Helton if your league doesn't penalize strikeouts and/or give points for walks. One recent note on Helton, though: He has been moved back up to the two-hole, so he will get a lot more pitches to hit with Matt Holliday lurking on deck. That might be the coziest batting spot in baseball, because it is Holliday and Coors Field. Everything considered, give Helton a look while he is in the two-hole. If he doesn't come around by the All-Star break, go to Huff or some other flavor of the week. In your small league -- just 10 teams -- losing Helton or Huff should not be a big deal.

You can e-mail Emack your Fantasy Baseball Stockwatch questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Stockwatch in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Joe Mauer
Mauer 'feels good' after workout
Joe Mauer, C, MIN
2:50 PM
News: The News-Press reports Twins C Joe Mauer took two rounds of batting practice and went through a set of conditioning drills around the base paths Monday, and he appeared to have no problems sprinting. Mauer battled leg injuries in 2011. “I feel good,” Mauer said. “It feels good to get back out here again.” Mauer also put to rest the rumors that he gained 30 pounds in the offseason. “I heard that, too, and I couldn’t believe it," he said. “It’s just how rumors start. There were a lot of things out there last year that weren’t true. I’m about 220, 225. I need to add a little more weight before we start.”
Analysis: While most players feel good when they arrive to camp, it's especially encouraging to hear Mauer say that since last season he was coming off knee surgery and wasn't ready for the start of spring training. Mauer will head into 2012 motivated after an injury-plagued 2011. There's no guarantee he is past his knee problems, but the Twins are going to do their best to make sure Mauer avoids the DL. There is obviously risk involved with drafting Mauer, but his potential to be an elite Fantasy option at catcher make it worth drafting him. An offseason of staying health could make Mauer a steal in the fifth or sixth round of mixed-league drafts.

Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens still trade candidate
Jair Jurrjens, SP, ATL
11:57 AM
News: CBSSports.com senior writer Danny Knobler reports sources said the Braves could try and trade SP Jair Jurrjens if he proves healthy in spring training. The Braves tried to trade Jurrjens this winter, but they couldn't find a taker because potential trade partners weren't convinced Jurrjens was healthy or could stay healthy. Jurrjens missed the end of the 2011 season with a knee injury and has made just 43 starts the last two seasons.
Analysis: When Jurrjens is healthy, he is one of the best pitchers in the majors. His 1.87 ERA in the first half last season was second to only Jered Weaver among major-league starters. Jurrjens has won 13-plus games in three of the last four seasons. So why would the Braves want to trade him? Well, Jurrjens is a free agent after the 2013 season and it appears Atlanta is ready to clear some rotation space for the likes of Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens with Jurrjens this spring. There appears to be a chance he might not finish the spring with Atlanta, which could mean Jurrjens slides down draft boards in NL-only formats that lose players who are traded to the AL. In mixed leagues, Jurrjens is still a decent mid-round Fantasy pick.

A.J. Burnett
Angels, Indians interested in Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
11:40 AM
News: FOXSports.com reports sources indicate the Angels are interested in Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, whose name has been heavily mentioned in trade rumors with the Pirates. However, the Angels are on Burnett's no-trade list and he wants to stay east. Pittsburgh is still considered the heavy favorite to potentially land Burnett. CBSSports.com baseball insider Jon Heyman said the Indians have also inquired about Burnett. The trade talks involve DH Travis Hafner, but Cleveland is unsure if it would make that trade. The Yankees also don't mind the free agent DH options available.
Analysis: Right now the hold up in the Pirates trade is how much money Pittsburgh will be willing to pay of Burnett's remaining salary over the next two years ($33 million) and the prospects the Pirates would send to the Yankees. Perhaps these rumors regarding the Angels and Indians might speed up the process, but other sources have said the Yankees would keep Burnett if the deal isn't right for them. Wherever Burnett pitches in 2012, he is going to be a late-round Fantasy pick coming off a turbulent 2011 campaign.

Coco Crisp
Crisp moving over for Cespedes?
Coco Crisp, CF, OAK
10:13 AM
News: Sources have told FOXSports.com that the Athletics intend to start newly signed Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes in center field right away, which would move Coco Crisp over to left field and Seth Smith to DH. Cespedes is already 26 and has faced upper-level competition in Cuba, but some scouts think he could use some time in the minors to adjust to the U.S. game.
Analysis: None of these reports are coming directly from the Athletics, so you should consider them nothing more than speculation at this point. Still, speculation is better than nothing, and if Cespedes is in fact going to be on the opening day roster, then he might even be worth drafting in the middle rounds, given his upside. As for Crisp, moving to left field wouldn't have any real impact on his Fantasy value. The Athletics outfield is even more crowded with the Cespedes signing, but the team seems to consider Crisp a mainstay at the top of the lineup. Given his base-stealing ability and doubles pop, he's a worthy fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Ryan Braun
Braun will know fate by Feb. 24
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
10:03 AM
News: Monday came and went without a ruling on Brewers OF Ryan Braun's pending 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It was the 25th day since the three-man panel heard Braun's appeal. According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the panel was supposed to “make all reasonable efforts” to deliver a verdict within that period of time, but chairman Shyam Das was given an extension. A decision is expected before Braun reports to spring training on Feb. 24, but the exact date is unknown since the process is intended to be confidential.
Analysis: The panel's need for a lengthy deliberation is theoretically a good sign, but then again, since the process is usually confidential, we don't know how common such extensions are. Braun's case is said to be unique, but it might not make much of a difference to the panel. If you're drafting now, you should do so with the expectation that Braun will miss the first 50 games of the season, which could allow him to slip to the middle rounds in standard mixed leagues. If the appeal is upheld, though, he's suddenly back to being a first-rounder in Fantasy.

Alex Liddi
Liddi to work at 1B in spring
Alex Liddi, 3B, SEA
3:09 PM
News: The Seattle Times reports Mariners manager Eric Wedge said 3B Alex Liddi will be playing first base for most of the spring. Liddi began taking grounders at first on Tuesday.
Analysis: It seems as though the Mariners want to see if they can find an alternative way to get Liddi on the roster in the event Kyle Seager and Chone Figgins prove to be viable options at third base. Liddi could be a backup to Justin Smoak at first base. However, it appears Liddi might only be vying for a backup role with Seattle, so unless he has an outstanding spring, then he should be left for AL-only Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka
Nishioka wants to be 'aggressive'
Tsuyoshi Nishioka, SS, MIN
2:58 PM
News: The News-Press reports Twins SS Tsuyoshi Nishioka arrived a week early to spring training so he could adjust to the time difference from Japan. He worked out Monday and said through a translator that adjusting to his first experience in the majors took its toll on him in 2011. “I want to be more aggressive,” Nishioka said. “Not knowing right from left, it was strange playing the sport of baseball. It’s difficult when you think about it. Driving a car, you drive on opposite sides of the road. Outside the ballpark, there were lifestyle adjustments, too. That made it pretty difficult.”
Analysis: It's good that Nishioka has come to camp with the right attitude. However, he is still looking at being a reserve after the team signed Jamey Carroll to start at shortstop. That's not to say Nishioka can't emerge as a starter at some point this season, but the Twins are going to make him earn it. Nishioka is at best an AL-only Fantasy reserve on Draft Day.

Mike Moustakas
Moustakas in great shape
Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC
12:48 PM
News: Royals manager Ned Yost had his contract option for the 2013 season picked up on Tuesday, but the Kansas City skipper seemed more interested in talking about his 2012 team. Yost was impressed with how many players have shown up for spring training early and is really blown away by the fitness level of a few of his players. "Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas -- I'm extremely proud of both of those guys," Yost told reporters. "They could be in the best shape they've been in their careers. Billy looks great, and I didn't even hardly recognize Moose he looks so good."
Analysis: While the fitness level doesn't necessarily mean a player will have success, it really can't hurt either. To hear Yost rave about Moustakas should get the attention of Fantasy owners. Moustakas, who is one of the Royals' top prospects, struggled when he first arrived in the majors last season. However, he seemed to have figured it out by season's end. Moustakas hit .352 with four homers and 12 RBI in his final 22 games last season. He is definitely one of the more intriguing Fantasy sleepers heading into 2012 and this latest report just adds to his appeal on Draft Day.

Jake Westbrook
Westbrook sheds 25 pounds
Jake Westbrook, SP, STL
2:11 PM
News: The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports Cardinals SP Jake Westbrook has shown up for spring training 25 pounds lighter than he was last season.
Analysis: This is the time of year where everyone seems to come to camp in better shape than they left last season. Hopefully for Westbrook it makes a difference in his game. He did go 12-9 in 2011, but he posted a 4.66 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 33 starts. Westbrook can chew up innings, but he won't post impressive ERA, WHIP or strikeout total. Leave him for NL-only Fantasy formats.

Jhoulys Chacin
Chacin fires back at GM
Jhoulys Chacin, SP, COL
12:07 PM
News: The Denver Post reports Rockies SP Jhoulys Chacin responded to comments made by GM Dan O'Dowd, who expressed concern recently about Chacin's offseason conditioning. "I came to Arizona this past Monday. I have not stopped training during the winter, both in my country and here," Chacin told Venezuelan newspaper Meridiano. "I have always done the best job I could all throughout these past few months. I don't know where these comments came from. I believe they're the result of what other people have told him, instead of his own personal evaluation. I am looking forward to meeting O'Dowd personally, and I am confident that he will have a different conclusion after a firsthand evaluation." O'Dowd made his comments after seeing Chacin at the team's Fanfest in January. "He looked OK. It wasn't as bad as I anticipated," O'Dowd said. "It's still not what it should be."
Analysis: O'Dowd believes Chacin needs to lose weight because the excess pounds affect the balance in his delivery and cause his fastball command to suffer. Chacin spent much of the winter working out in his native Venezuela after working out in Tucson previously. On Feb. 9, Chacin reportedly weighed 226 pounds but anticipates being close to the 218 pounds he was last spring when he reports to spring training on Feb. 19. Chacin went 8-7 with a 3.16 ERA in 18 pre-All Star break starts last year and went 3-7 with a 4.31 ERA in 13 starts after the break. Chacin struggled with walks in the second half and was much more hittable down the stretch than he was early in the season. This situation is clearly not the way Fantasy owners want to see Chacin kick off the 2012 season, but perhaps this will provide him with the motivation he needs to reach elite status. Look to Chacin as a mid-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.

 
 
 
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