Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
2011 Draft Prep Guide
Fantasy Football Today
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Draft Analyzer
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Red Zone Stats
Teams
Schedules
Scores
Standings
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Premium
Office Pool Manager
Playoff Challenge
2011 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Teams
Schedules
Weekly Planner
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Premium
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Premium
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Premium
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 

Al Melchior

By the Numbers: Don't forget your DHs!

By | Special to CBSSports.com


With another interleague thumping by the American League in the books, it may be time for a roster readjustment. Prior to a stretch of interleague games in National League stadiums, owners anticipate the benching of designated hitters or other AL players who get squeezed out of the lineup. Even though we are now back to an intraleague schedule, the ownership numbers for several of these players are not back up to pre-interleague levels. The dropoff for two players in particular -- Jim Thome and Delmon Young -- has been particularly steep. Are there legitimate reasons for not owning or activating Thome and Young, or have owners just been slow to update their rosters? We will take a look at both of these cases.

The interleague schedule could have an impact on the roster decisions regarding NL players, too. As we head into the All-Star Break and then the trading deadline, teams making moves may create regular roles for their players who were temporary DHs over the past couple of weeks. As the Reds and Rockies fall farther out of contention, this could be a reality for these two teams. We will also investigate increased playing time opportunities for a couple of hitters on each of these teams.

Players Who Got Squeezed Out

Jim Thome, DH, Chicago White Sox: Back in Week 11, Thome was on an active roster in 53 percent of leagues on CBSSports.com, but last week that figure was down to 36 percent. At least some of his owners want him back, as he was activated in seven percent of our leagues, but his active roster and ownership numbers aren't all the way back to pre-interleague levels. Thome's batting average is more than 50 points below his career average, even as he continues to make contact at his usual rate. A drop in power is the culprit, which would also explain why his HR and RBI totals are down as well. Thome's Isolated Power has fallen from .310 in '06 to .287 in '07 to .244 so far this year.

Delmon Young sat out most of Minnesota's interleague schedule. (AP)  
Delmon Young sat out most of Minnesota's interleague schedule. (AP)  
Clearly, at 37, Thome isn't the hitter he was even a couple of years ago, but the question is whether he is good enough to roster in a utility spot. Indicators, such as a 5.4 RC/27 and .824 OPS, suggest he is a borderline mixed league utility player at best. However, Thome is still a very good power hitter, and his 26 percent H/BIP rate looks too low for someone who can still hit as well as he can. Even Cliff Floyd and Jason Kubel have rates in the normal 28 to 30 percent range, even though both have hit with slightly less power than Thome, and neither is reaching base by virtue of their speed. While Thome's home run total will be lower than in the past, his average should increase steadily during the second half. Even in mixed leagues, there will be few, if any, free agent options better than Thome to fill a utility slot. Unless you already have someone better on your active roster, it's time to move Thome off the bench in time for Week 15.

Delmon Young, OF, Minnesota: Young's ownership numbers have dropped steadily since Fantasy owners discovered he had left power out of his toolbox this season. As the Twins benched him for the interleague games in NL parks, those who still owned Young in CBSSports.com leagues wisely decided to bench him as well. He was on an active roster in 53 percent of our leagues before this stretch of interleague games, and this week that number stands at 36 percent.

Now that the Twins are playing Young again, should you? Believe it or not, there is some good news to consider. Young is stealing more, walking more and striking out less often than he did last year or in his not-quite-rookie season of 2006. Progress in these areas has allowed Young to keep his batting average in the .270s and .280s for much of the season. We also have to remember that he is still just 22 years old, though that is probably more comfort to his owners in keeper leagues. Still, the advances that Young has made have been cancelled out by the regression in his power production. His 4.1 RC/27 is a tick lower than last year’s 4.2 mark. That level of production is passable in an AL-only league, especially for someone who can help with steals, but it is unacceptable in any mixed league. If you can afford to keep Young benched, it is worth doing so in case the breakthrough eventually comes, but he should not be on an active roster other than in very deep leagues.

Players With New Opportunities

Corey Patterson and Norris Hopper, OF, Cincinnati: Ken Griffey Jr., was the Reds' primary DH when they played nine consecutive games in AL parks. Patterson and Hopper were the main beneficiaries of increased playing time, as they filled the outfield spot vacated by Griffey. For the time being, both have been relegated to bench spots, but perhaps Reds fans saw a preview of their post-trade deadline outfield, should GM Walt Jocketty deal Junior or Adam Dunn within the next month.

When Patterson has played full-time he has been a good source of steals, most recently nabbing 82 bases over two seasons in Baltimore. Once upon a time, it looked like Patterson would be a threat to hit 30-plus homers a year, but he hasn't posted an Isolated Power average over .200 since 2003. He has cut down on his strikeouts dramatically, so he could manage to hit .280 even with mediocre power. First he has to crack .200 this year, but he will need to pull up his incredibly fluky 19 percent H/BIP. Despite his paltry current average, don't write Patterson off should he inherit a full-time job. He could be worth rostering for his steals, runs scored and average (yes, average), even in a mixed league.

Year Team Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP RC/27
2006 Baltimore 4% 20% 0.166 32% 5.3
2007 Baltimore 4% 14% 0.117 30% 4.3
2008 Cincinnati 4% 12% 0.153 19% 2.4

Hopper is similar to Patterson in several ways: as the table below shows, he doesn't walk much, but he doesn't strike out much either. Like Patterson, he's also speedy on the basepaths. The important difference between the two outfielders is that Hopper has no power whatsoever. If he played everyday, he would have Juan Pierre-like stats, except with 25 to 35 fewer steals. Pierre with all of his steals is not exactly a must-own, so a version of him with half the steals is even less so. If an outfield spot opens up, in all likelihood, Patterson would get most of the reps with Hopper batting against lefties.

Year Team Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP RC/27
2006 Louisville (Triple-A) 5% 7% 0.045 37% N/A
2007 Cincinnati 6% 11% 0.059 37% 5.2
2008 Cincinnati 8% 12% 0.000 23% 2.2

Jeff Baker, 2B and Ryan Spilborghs, OF, Colorado: Baker and Spilborghs filled in at DH during recent series at Kansas City and Detroit. Should the Rockies deal Garrett Atkins or Matt Holliday, Baker and Spilborghs would likely be their respective replacements. With a strong June, Baker has positioned himself well for continued playing time. He has enough power for a third baseman or outfielder, even though his main position is second base. Baker's current .279 average is a bit inflated due to a 37 percent H/BIP, but it is reasonable to expect him to hit .260 with 20-25 HR over the course of a full season. He's no Atkins, but with those numbers, you could easily justify using Baker to fill a 3B spot on a mixed league roster.

Year Team Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP RC/27
2006 Colorado Springs (Triple-A) 9% 23% 0.203 36% N/A
2007 Colorado 8% 28% 0.125 28% 3.0
2008 Colorado 6% 30% 0.214 37% 5.8

Over three seasons in Colorado, Spilborghs has done nicely for himself in a part-time role, hitting around .300 with moderate pop. He could also rack up double-digit steals given the chance to play everyday. Spilborghs' skill profile looks amazingly similar to David Murphy's, and Murphy has managed to do alright once given the chance to be a regular. At 28, though, Spilborghs is two years older than Murphy and is less likely to take the big step forward that Murphy has this season. Especially with an Isolated Power average that is consistently below .200, Spilborghs looks destined to be a fourth outfielder.

Year Team Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP RC/27
2006 Colorado 8% 18% 0.144 33% 4.6
2007 Colorado 10% 17% 0.186 33% 6.5
2008 Colorado 16% 18% 0.157 34% 6.8

For most of the NL designated hitters, this week marks a return back to the unglamorous utility roles they held up until two weeks ago. In all likelihood, Hopper and Spilborghs will join the ranks of DH temps like Wes Helms and Greg Norton, filling in for injured players and otherwise picking up just a few at-bats per week. Patterson and Baker may take a different path, especially if rumored trades take place before the deadline. Given an opportunity, both could parlay some recent skills growth into performances that could help your Fantasy squad.

Glossary
Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James
Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James
Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30%
Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth
Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks)
Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.

 
 
 
Player News
Joe Mauer
Mauer 'feels good' after workout
Joe Mauer, C, MIN
2:50 PM
News: The News-Press reports Twins C Joe Mauer took two rounds of batting practice and went through a set of conditioning drills around the base paths Monday, and he appeared to have no problems sprinting. Mauer battled leg injuries in 2011. “I feel good,” Mauer said. “It feels good to get back out here again.” Mauer also put to rest the rumors that he gained 30 pounds in the offseason. “I heard that, too, and I couldn’t believe it," he said. “It’s just how rumors start. There were a lot of things out there last year that weren’t true. I’m about 220, 225. I need to add a little more weight before we start.”
Analysis: While most players feel good when they arrive to camp, it's especially encouraging to hear Mauer say that since last season he was coming off knee surgery and wasn't ready for the start of spring training. Mauer will head into 2012 motivated after an injury-plagued 2011. There's no guarantee he is past his knee problems, but the Twins are going to do their best to make sure Mauer avoids the DL. There is obviously risk involved with drafting Mauer, but his potential to be an elite Fantasy option at catcher make it worth drafting him. An offseason of staying health could make Mauer a steal in the fifth or sixth round of mixed-league drafts.

Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens still trade candidate
Jair Jurrjens, SP, ATL
11:57 AM
News: CBSSports.com senior writer Danny Knobler reports sources said the Braves could try and trade SP Jair Jurrjens if he proves healthy in spring training. The Braves tried to trade Jurrjens this winter, but they couldn't find a taker because potential trade partners weren't convinced Jurrjens was healthy or could stay healthy. Jurrjens missed the end of the 2011 season with a knee injury and has made just 43 starts the last two seasons.
Analysis: When Jurrjens is healthy, he is one of the best pitchers in the majors. His 1.87 ERA in the first half last season was second to only Jered Weaver among major-league starters. Jurrjens has won 13-plus games in three of the last four seasons. So why would the Braves want to trade him? Well, Jurrjens is a free agent after the 2013 season and it appears Atlanta is ready to clear some rotation space for the likes of Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens with Jurrjens this spring. There appears to be a chance he might not finish the spring with Atlanta, which could mean Jurrjens slides down draft boards in NL-only formats that lose players who are traded to the AL. In mixed leagues, Jurrjens is still a decent mid-round Fantasy pick.

A.J. Burnett
Angels, Indians interested in Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
11:40 AM
News: FOXSports.com reports sources indicate the Angels are interested in Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, whose name has been heavily mentioned in trade rumors with the Pirates. However, the Angels are on Burnett's no-trade list and he wants to stay east. Pittsburgh is still considered the heavy favorite to potentially land Burnett. CBSSports.com baseball insider Jon Heyman said the Indians have also inquired about Burnett. The trade talks involve DH Travis Hafner, but Cleveland is unsure if it would make that trade. The Yankees also don't mind the free agent DH options available.
Analysis: Right now the hold up in the Pirates trade is how much money Pittsburgh will be willing to pay of Burnett's remaining salary over the next two years ($33 million) and the prospects the Pirates would send to the Yankees. Perhaps these rumors regarding the Angels and Indians might speed up the process, but other sources have said the Yankees would keep Burnett if the deal isn't right for them. Wherever Burnett pitches in 2012, he is going to be a late-round Fantasy pick coming off a turbulent 2011 campaign.

Coco Crisp
Crisp moving over for Cespedes?
Coco Crisp, CF, OAK
10:13 AM
News: Sources have told FOXSports.com that the Athletics intend to start newly signed Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes in center field right away, which would move Coco Crisp over to left field and Seth Smith to DH. Cespedes is already 26 and has faced upper-level competition in Cuba, but some scouts think he could use some time in the minors to adjust to the U.S. game.
Analysis: None of these reports are coming directly from the Athletics, so you should consider them nothing more than speculation at this point. Still, speculation is better than nothing, and if Cespedes is in fact going to be on the opening day roster, then he might even be worth drafting in the middle rounds, given his upside. As for Crisp, moving to left field wouldn't have any real impact on his Fantasy value. The Athletics outfield is even more crowded with the Cespedes signing, but the team seems to consider Crisp a mainstay at the top of the lineup. Given his base-stealing ability and doubles pop, he's a worthy fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Ryan Braun
Braun will know fate by Feb. 24
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
10:03 AM
News: Monday came and went without a ruling on Brewers OF Ryan Braun's pending 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It was the 25th day since the three-man panel heard Braun's appeal. According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the panel was supposed to “make all reasonable efforts” to deliver a verdict within that period of time, but chairman Shyam Das was given an extension. A decision is expected before Braun reports to spring training on Feb. 24, but the exact date is unknown since the process is intended to be confidential.
Analysis: The panel's need for a lengthy deliberation is theoretically a good sign, but then again, since the process is usually confidential, we don't know how common such extensions are. Braun's case is said to be unique, but it might not make much of a difference to the panel. If you're drafting now, you should do so with the expectation that Braun will miss the first 50 games of the season, which could allow him to slip to the middle rounds in standard mixed leagues. If the appeal is upheld, though, he's suddenly back to being a first-rounder in Fantasy.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka
Nishioka wants to be 'aggressive'
Tsuyoshi Nishioka, SS, MIN
2:58 PM
News: The News-Press reports Twins SS Tsuyoshi Nishioka arrived a week early to spring training so he could adjust to the time difference from Japan. He worked out Monday and said through a translator that adjusting to his first experience in the majors took its toll on him in 2011. “I want to be more aggressive,” Nishioka said. “Not knowing right from left, it was strange playing the sport of baseball. It’s difficult when you think about it. Driving a car, you drive on opposite sides of the road. Outside the ballpark, there were lifestyle adjustments, too. That made it pretty difficult.”
Analysis: It's good that Nishioka has come to camp with the right attitude. However, he is still looking at being a reserve after the team signed Jamey Carroll to start at shortstop. That's not to say Nishioka can't emerge as a starter at some point this season, but the Twins are going to make him earn it. Nishioka is at best an AL-only Fantasy reserve on Draft Day.

Mike Moustakas
Moustakas in great shape
Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC
12:48 PM
News: Royals manager Ned Yost had his contract option for the 2013 season picked up on Tuesday, but the Kansas City skipper seemed more interested in talking about his 2012 team. Yost was impressed with how many players have shown up for spring training early and is really blown away by the fitness level of a few of his players. "Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas -- I'm extremely proud of both of those guys," Yost told reporters. "They could be in the best shape they've been in their careers. Billy looks great, and I didn't even hardly recognize Moose he looks so good."
Analysis: While the fitness level doesn't necessarily mean a player will have success, it really can't hurt either. To hear Yost rave about Moustakas should get the attention of Fantasy owners. Moustakas, who is one of the Royals' top prospects, struggled when he first arrived in the majors last season. However, he seemed to have figured it out by season's end. Moustakas hit .352 with four homers and 12 RBI in his final 22 games last season. He is definitely one of the more intriguing Fantasy sleepers heading into 2012 and this latest report just adds to his appeal on Draft Day.

Jake Westbrook
Westbrook sheds 25 pounds
Jake Westbrook, SP, STL
2:11 PM
News: The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports Cardinals SP Jake Westbrook has shown up for spring training 25 pounds lighter than he was last season.
Analysis: This is the time of year where everyone seems to come to camp in better shape than they left last season. Hopefully for Westbrook it makes a difference in his game. He did go 12-9 in 2011, but he posted a 4.66 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 33 starts. Westbrook can chew up innings, but he won't post impressive ERA, WHIP or strikeout total. Leave him for NL-only Fantasy formats.

Jhoulys Chacin
Chacin fires back at GM
Jhoulys Chacin, SP, COL
12:07 PM
News: The Denver Post reports Rockies SP Jhoulys Chacin responded to comments made by GM Dan O'Dowd, who expressed concern recently about Chacin's offseason conditioning. "I came to Arizona this past Monday. I have not stopped training during the winter, both in my country and here," Chacin told Venezuelan newspaper Meridiano. "I have always done the best job I could all throughout these past few months. I don't know where these comments came from. I believe they're the result of what other people have told him, instead of his own personal evaluation. I am looking forward to meeting O'Dowd personally, and I am confident that he will have a different conclusion after a firsthand evaluation." O'Dowd made his comments after seeing Chacin at the team's Fanfest in January. "He looked OK. It wasn't as bad as I anticipated," O'Dowd said. "It's still not what it should be."
Analysis: O'Dowd believes Chacin needs to lose weight because the excess pounds affect the balance in his delivery and cause his fastball command to suffer. Chacin spent much of the winter working out in his native Venezuela after working out in Tucson previously. On Feb. 9, Chacin reportedly weighed 226 pounds but anticipates being close to the 218 pounds he was last spring when he reports to spring training on Feb. 19. Chacin went 8-7 with a 3.16 ERA in 18 pre-All Star break starts last year and went 3-7 with a 4.31 ERA in 13 starts after the break. Chacin struggled with walks in the second half and was much more hittable down the stretch than he was early in the season. This situation is clearly not the way Fantasy owners want to see Chacin kick off the 2012 season, but perhaps this will provide him with the motivation he needs to reach elite status. Look to Chacin as a mid-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Kyle Seager
Seager gets work at first base
Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA
1:25 PM
News: The Seattle Times reports Mariners 3B Kyle Seager took grounders at first base Tuesday. Manager Eric Wedge said it was because of pitcher fielding drills Seager was at first base.
Analysis: It's interesting to see Seager working at another position in camp with Wedge calling him the front-runner for the third-base job. However, it appears clear that Seager was just needed as an extra body during fielding drills. Justin Smoak is still the team's first baseman and Mike Carp is his expected backup. Carlos Guillen can also play first base, so we can't look too much into Seager taking grounders at first. His main focus should be winning the 3B job over the likes of Alex Liddi and Chone Figgins. Consider Seager nothing more than a late-round, low-end Fantasy corner infielder on Draft Day. He does have some sleeper potential, but don't reach for him in drafts.

 
 
 
Top Videos
Rankings