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Al Melchior

By the Numbers: Don't forget your DHs!

By | Special to CBSSports.com


With another interleague thumping by the American League in the books, it may be time for a roster readjustment. Prior to a stretch of interleague games in National League stadiums, owners anticipate the benching of designated hitters or other AL players who get squeezed out of the lineup. Even though we are now back to an intraleague schedule, the ownership numbers for several of these players are not back up to pre-interleague levels. The dropoff for two players in particular -- Jim Thome and Delmon Young -- has been particularly steep. Are there legitimate reasons for not owning or activating Thome and Young, or have owners just been slow to update their rosters? We will take a look at both of these cases.

The interleague schedule could have an impact on the roster decisions regarding NL players, too. As we head into the All-Star Break and then the trading deadline, teams making moves may create regular roles for their players who were temporary DHs over the past couple of weeks. As the Reds and Rockies fall farther out of contention, this could be a reality for these two teams. We will also investigate increased playing time opportunities for a couple of hitters on each of these teams.

Players Who Got Squeezed Out

Jim Thome, DH, Chicago White Sox: Back in Week 11, Thome was on an active roster in 53 percent of leagues on CBSSports.com, but last week that figure was down to 36 percent. At least some of his owners want him back, as he was activated in seven percent of our leagues, but his active roster and ownership numbers aren't all the way back to pre-interleague levels. Thome's batting average is more than 50 points below his career average, even as he continues to make contact at his usual rate. A drop in power is the culprit, which would also explain why his HR and RBI totals are down as well. Thome's Isolated Power has fallen from .310 in '06 to .287 in '07 to .244 so far this year.

Delmon Young sat out most of Minnesota's interleague schedule. (AP)  
Delmon Young sat out most of Minnesota's interleague schedule. (AP)  
Clearly, at 37, Thome isn't the hitter he was even a couple of years ago, but the question is whether he is good enough to roster in a utility spot. Indicators, such as a 5.4 RC/27 and .824 OPS, suggest he is a borderline mixed league utility player at best. However, Thome is still a very good power hitter, and his 26 percent H/BIP rate looks too low for someone who can still hit as well as he can. Even Cliff Floyd and Jason Kubel have rates in the normal 28 to 30 percent range, even though both have hit with slightly less power than Thome, and neither is reaching base by virtue of their speed. While Thome's home run total will be lower than in the past, his average should increase steadily during the second half. Even in mixed leagues, there will be few, if any, free agent options better than Thome to fill a utility slot. Unless you already have someone better on your active roster, it's time to move Thome off the bench in time for Week 15.

Delmon Young, OF, Minnesota: Young's ownership numbers have dropped steadily since Fantasy owners discovered he had left power out of his toolbox this season. As the Twins benched him for the interleague games in NL parks, those who still owned Young in CBSSports.com leagues wisely decided to bench him as well. He was on an active roster in 53 percent of our leagues before this stretch of interleague games, and this week that number stands at 36 percent.

Now that the Twins are playing Young again, should you? Believe it or not, there is some good news to consider. Young is stealing more, walking more and striking out less often than he did last year or in his not-quite-rookie season of 2006. Progress in these areas has allowed Young to keep his batting average in the .270s and .280s for much of the season. We also have to remember that he is still just 22 years old, though that is probably more comfort to his owners in keeper leagues. Still, the advances that Young has made have been cancelled out by the regression in his power production. His 4.1 RC/27 is a tick lower than last year’s 4.2 mark. That level of production is passable in an AL-only league, especially for someone who can help with steals, but it is unacceptable in any mixed league. If you can afford to keep Young benched, it is worth doing so in case the breakthrough eventually comes, but he should not be on an active roster other than in very deep leagues.

Players With New Opportunities

Corey Patterson and Norris Hopper, OF, Cincinnati: Ken Griffey Jr., was the Reds' primary DH when they played nine consecutive games in AL parks. Patterson and Hopper were the main beneficiaries of increased playing time, as they filled the outfield spot vacated by Griffey. For the time being, both have been relegated to bench spots, but perhaps Reds fans saw a preview of their post-trade deadline outfield, should GM Walt Jocketty deal Junior or Adam Dunn within the next month.

When Patterson has played full-time he has been a good source of steals, most recently nabbing 82 bases over two seasons in Baltimore. Once upon a time, it looked like Patterson would be a threat to hit 30-plus homers a year, but he hasn't posted an Isolated Power average over .200 since 2003. He has cut down on his strikeouts dramatically, so he could manage to hit .280 even with mediocre power. First he has to crack .200 this year, but he will need to pull up his incredibly fluky 19 percent H/BIP. Despite his paltry current average, don't write Patterson off should he inherit a full-time job. He could be worth rostering for his steals, runs scored and average (yes, average), even in a mixed league.

Year Team Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP RC/27
2006 Baltimore 4% 20% 0.166 32% 5.3
2007 Baltimore 4% 14% 0.117 30% 4.3
2008 Cincinnati 4% 12% 0.153 19% 2.4

Hopper is similar to Patterson in several ways: as the table below shows, he doesn't walk much, but he doesn't strike out much either. Like Patterson, he's also speedy on the basepaths. The important difference between the two outfielders is that Hopper has no power whatsoever. If he played everyday, he would have Juan Pierre-like stats, except with 25 to 35 fewer steals. Pierre with all of his steals is not exactly a must-own, so a version of him with half the steals is even less so. If an outfield spot opens up, in all likelihood, Patterson would get most of the reps with Hopper batting against lefties.

Year Team Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP RC/27
2006 Louisville (Triple-A) 5% 7% 0.045 37% N/A
2007 Cincinnati 6% 11% 0.059 37% 5.2
2008 Cincinnati 8% 12% 0.000 23% 2.2

Jeff Baker, 2B and Ryan Spilborghs, OF, Colorado: Baker and Spilborghs filled in at DH during recent series at Kansas City and Detroit. Should the Rockies deal Garrett Atkins or Matt Holliday, Baker and Spilborghs would likely be their respective replacements. With a strong June, Baker has positioned himself well for continued playing time. He has enough power for a third baseman or outfielder, even though his main position is second base. Baker's current .279 average is a bit inflated due to a 37 percent H/BIP, but it is reasonable to expect him to hit .260 with 20-25 HR over the course of a full season. He's no Atkins, but with those numbers, you could easily justify using Baker to fill a 3B spot on a mixed league roster.

Year Team Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP RC/27
2006 Colorado Springs (Triple-A) 9% 23% 0.203 36% N/A
2007 Colorado 8% 28% 0.125 28% 3.0
2008 Colorado 6% 30% 0.214 37% 5.8

Over three seasons in Colorado, Spilborghs has done nicely for himself in a part-time role, hitting around .300 with moderate pop. He could also rack up double-digit steals given the chance to play everyday. Spilborghs' skill profile looks amazingly similar to David Murphy's, and Murphy has managed to do alright once given the chance to be a regular. At 28, though, Spilborghs is two years older than Murphy and is less likely to take the big step forward that Murphy has this season. Especially with an Isolated Power average that is consistently below .200, Spilborghs looks destined to be a fourth outfielder.

Year Team Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP RC/27
2006 Colorado 8% 18% 0.144 33% 4.6
2007 Colorado 10% 17% 0.186 33% 6.5
2008 Colorado 16% 18% 0.157 34% 6.8

For most of the NL designated hitters, this week marks a return back to the unglamorous utility roles they held up until two weeks ago. In all likelihood, Hopper and Spilborghs will join the ranks of DH temps like Wes Helms and Greg Norton, filling in for injured players and otherwise picking up just a few at-bats per week. Patterson and Baker may take a different path, especially if rumored trades take place before the deadline. Given an opportunity, both could parlay some recent skills growth into performances that could help your Fantasy squad.

Glossary
Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James
Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James
Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30%
Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth
Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks)
Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.

 
 
 
Player News
Roy Oswalt
Oswalt waiting to sign with Texas?
Roy Oswalt, SP, PHI
5:11 PM
News: The Cincinnati Enquirer reports Reds GM Walt Jocketty said he hasn't had contact with Roy Oswalt's agents in the last week, and Jocketty offered up his own opinion on the Oswalt sweepstakes. “I think he’s waiting for Texas to clear money,” Jocketty said.
Analysis: It's interesting to hear Jocketty say Oswalt wants to sign with Texas. At least it's a legit reason why the veteran right-hander hasn't signed with a team yet, despite being linked to the Reds and Cardinals. Oswalt is likely going to sign somewhere before the start of the 2012 season and should be in a rotation. Consider Oswalt more of a mid-to-late-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day. Don't forget about his chronic back problems.

Johan Santana
Santana looks 'great' playing catch
Johan Santana, SP, NYM
2:25 PM
News: The Wall Street Journal reports Mets SP Johan Santana (shoulder) played catch from 175 feet Monday. Manager Terry Collins said Santana looked "great" and he hopes the left-hander will throw off a mound by the end of the week.
Analysis: Collins' assessment of Santana sounds like cautious optimism. After all it was just catch. Santana has bigger hurdles to clear in hopes of pitching for the first time since the 2010 season. Santana is coming off a serious shoulder injury and who knows if he can return to the dominant arm he once was. Fantasy owners should bear in mind that Chien-Ming Wang, who underwent the same procedure, needed two years to make it back to the majors, so Santana could wind up providing far fewer than 25 starts -- which is the Mets' goal for the lefty this season. Because of the playing time risk, he is a late-round option in mixed leagues at best.

Ryan Braun
Braun ruling coming soon?
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
1:51 PM
News: The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports there is no indication that a ruling will be announced Monday regarding Ryan Braun's appeal of a 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It appears the recommended guideline for a ruling will be extended.
Analysis: The entire baseball world want this issue to be put to bed, but it seems we might have to wait a little longer for a ruling. The Brewers remain upbeat about Braun's situation, but only time will tell what happens. If Braun avoids a suspension, then he remains a first-round Fantasy pick. If he is suspended 50 games, then he is going to tumble down draft boards a bit, but Braun would still be an early-round Fantasy selection based on potential once he becomes active.

Seth Smith
Cespedes to bump Smith?
Seth Smith, RF, OAK
1:37 PM
News: Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes and the Oakland Athletics have agreed to a $36 million, four-year contract. Agent Adam Katz confirmed Monday the sides had reached agreement, with details still to be finalized. Cespedes' arrival means the A's could eventually bump Seth Smith to designated hitter.
Analysis: We will have to wait and see what happens when Cespedes finally arrives at A's camp, but the speculation is that the A's outfield alignment will eventually be Josh Reddick in right field, Coco Crisp in center field and Cespedes in left, which is where Smith is currently penciled in as the starter. But the A's could use a rotation at DH, which would still allow Smith to see regular at-bats, if Cespedes doesn't have to begin the year in the minors, which remains an option as well. Smith struggles against left-handed pitchers, so he might still be in a platoon situation like he was with the Rockies. Smith remains more of a late-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Mike Napoli
Napoli's ankle still an issue
Mike Napoli, C, TEX
12:48 PM
News: ESPN.com reports Rangers catcher Mike Napoli said his injured left ankle is progressing, but he is still not 100 percent. Napoli turned his ankle in the World Series against the Cardinals last year. "I think I’m close," Napoli said. "I’m not really going to know until I get into the wear and tear of spring training and catching all the time. But I've been feeling good and getting better day by day." Napoli said he has been running on the ankle, and he is also hitting and throwing without pain. However, he is still concerned about how it will hold up with the constant squatting and baseball activity. "But I'm trying not to do that all the time so I'm not depending on that," Napoli said. "I'm working on getting my little muscles stronger."
Analysis: The Dallas Morning News reports GM Jon Daniels said exams by team physician Keith Meister said Napoli's ankle shows no structural damage, but Napoli is still experiencing soreness. "The fact he's still feeling it a few months later speaks to what he went through to play the rest of Game 6 and go back out for Game 7," Daniels said. "It was about as bad as it looked to the rest of us." You have to wonder if Napoli can't shake this injury if it will play into how much time he gets behind the plate. Nonetheless, if Napoli catches less that just means he will likely see more PT at DH and first base. The Rangers aren't going to take his bat out of the lineup. Napoli remains a top 5 Fantasy catcher on Draft Day.

Emilio Bonifacio
Bonifacio was always the choice in CF
Emilio Bonifacio, SS, MIA
5:28 PM
News: The news broke Monday that OF Yoenis Cespedes agreed to a four-year contract with the A's, turning down the Marlins offer. Cespedes signing with the A's means Emilio Bonifacio will start in center field for Miami. However, manager Ozzie Guillen said that was going to be the case all along. "Bonifacio would've have been my center fielder no matter if Cespedes was here," Guillen told 790 AM in Miami. "If Cespedes (came) to the Marlins, he would have had to make the ballclub."
Analysis: Finally, Guillen steps up in front of this situation and stands behind Bonifacio as an everyday player. He absolutely deserved it after the season he put together in 2011. The 26-year-old took a big step forward last year as both a hitter and a base-stealer and is a viable starter in mixed Fantasy leagues at either shortstop or third base. He's worth targeting with a middle-round pick on Draft Day.

Scott Rolen
Rolen 'swinging bat really well'
Scott Rolen, 3B, CIN
5:21 PM
News: The Cincinnati Enquirer reports Reds GM Walt Jocketty said 3B Scott Rolen (shoulder) should be full-go for the start of spring training. “I talked to his offseason trainer a 10 days or two weeks ago. He said Scott is 100 percent and swinging the bat really well," Jocketty said.
Analysis: Rolen had shoulder surgery in August and his recovery seems to be going well. While Jocketty expects Rolen to have a productive season, we have to look at the facts. He will be 37 years old in 2012 and hasn't played more than 133 games the last five seasons. Rolen will sit at times in 2012, whether it is by design or because of injury. He did hit 20 homers in 2010, but Fantasy owners can't bank on that come Draft Day. Rolen is at best a late-round, injury-risk Fantasy option.

Aroldis Chapman
Chapman 'healthy and feels good'
Aroldis Chapman, RP, CIN
5:18 PM
News: The Cincinnati Enquirer reports Reds GM Walt Jocketty said pitcher Aroldis Chapman is at the team's spring complex in Arizona and throwing. “He’s healthy and feels good,” Jocketty said.
Analysis: The plan is for the Reds to stretch out Chapman as a starter this spring. He isn't guaranteed a starting spot, but the Reds want to see if he can bring his electric stuff to the rotation. If Chapman can stretch out and utilize his 100 mph in the rotation, then he could end up as a very good Fantasy option. Chapman will be a player Fantasy owners will want to keep tabs on this spring. He has breakout appeal written all over him.

Ryan Kalish
Kalish not cleared to swing bat
Ryan Kalish, CF, BOS
4:41 PM
News: The Boston Globe reports Red Sox OF Ryan Kalish has arrived at the team's spring training complex in Fort Myers, Fla., and is working out. However, he hasn't been cleared to swing a bat as he recovers from shoulder surgery.
Analysis: Kalish isn't expected to join the MLB roster until later this summer, so this news isn't shocking. Kalish is still holding out hope to be ready by opening day, but he isn't counting on it. It's disappointing he has to deal with this injury since the Red Sox have an opening in right field, which Kalish would be competing for had he avoided surgery. Kalish could very well emerge as an everyday player once he is healthy, but consider Kalish more of a draft-and-stash option in AL-only formats on Draft Day.

Adrian Gonzalez
Gonzo trims down for 2012?
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, BOS
4:36 PM
News: The Boston Globe reports Red Sox 1B Adrian Gonzalez showed up to spring training on Monday, even though position players didn't have to report until Feb. 23. The paper notes that Gonzalez appears trimmer than he was at the end of the 2011 season.
Analysis: Perhaps Gonzalez wanted to get a bit more in shape for the 2012 season, but it's not like he had poor conditioning in 2011. He did pretty well in his first season with Boston, batting .338 with 27 homers and 117 RBI. He is only 29 years old and still has plenty of quality years left. Gonzalez remains an early-round Fantasy pick in all formats.

 
 
 
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