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By the Numbers: Don't forget your DHs!

 
 
 

 

With another interleague thumping by the American League in the books, it may be time for a roster readjustment. Prior to a stretch of interleague games in National League stadiums, owners anticipate the benching of designated hitters or other AL players who get squeezed out of the lineup. Even though we are now back to an intraleague schedule, the ownership numbers for several of these players are not back up to pre-interleague levels. The dropoff for two players in particular -- Jim Thome and Delmon Young -- has been particularly steep. Are there legitimate reasons for not owning or activating Thome and Young, or have owners just been slow to update their rosters? We will take a look at both of these cases.

The interleague schedule could have an impact on the roster decisions regarding NL players, too. As we head into the All-Star Break and then the trading deadline, teams making moves may create regular roles for their players who were temporary DHs over the past couple of weeks. As the Reds and Rockies fall farther out of contention, this could be a reality for these two teams. We will also investigate increased playing time opportunities for a couple of hitters on each of these teams.

Players Who Got Squeezed Out

Jim Thome, DH, Chicago White Sox: Back in Week 11, Thome was on an active roster in 53 percent of leagues on CBSSports.com, but last week that figure was down to 36 percent. At least some of his owners want him back, as he was activated in seven percent of our leagues, but his active roster and ownership numbers aren't all the way back to pre-interleague levels. Thome's batting average is more than 50 points below his career average, even as he continues to make contact at his usual rate. A drop in power is the culprit, which would also explain why his HR and RBI totals are down as well. Thome's Isolated Power has fallen from .310 in '06 to .287 in '07 to .244 so far this year.

Delmon Young sat out most of Minnesota's interleague schedule. (AP)  
Delmon Young sat out most of Minnesota's interleague schedule. (AP)  
Clearly, at 37, Thome isn't the hitter he was even a couple of years ago, but the question is whether he is good enough to roster in a utility spot. Indicators, such as a 5.4 RC/27 and .824 OPS, suggest he is a borderline mixed league utility player at best. However, Thome is still a very good power hitter, and his 26 percent H/BIP rate looks too low for someone who can still hit as well as he can. Even Cliff Floyd and Jason Kubel have rates in the normal 28 to 30 percent range, even though both have hit with slightly less power than Thome, and neither is reaching base by virtue of their speed. While Thome's home run total will be lower than in the past, his average should increase steadily during the second half. Even in mixed leagues, there will be few, if any, free agent options better than Thome to fill a utility slot. Unless you already have someone better on your active roster, it's time to move Thome off the bench in time for Week 15.

Delmon Young, OF, Minnesota: Young's ownership numbers have dropped steadily since Fantasy owners discovered he had left power out of his toolbox this season. As the Twins benched him for the interleague games in NL parks, those who still owned Young in CBSSports.com leagues wisely decided to bench him as well. He was on an active roster in 53 percent of our leagues before this stretch of interleague games, and this week that number stands at 36 percent.

Now that the Twins are playing Young again, should you? Believe it or not, there is some good news to consider. Young is stealing more, walking more and striking out less often than he did last year or in his not-quite-rookie season of 2006. Progress in these areas has allowed Young to keep his batting average in the .270s and .280s for much of the season. We also have to remember that he is still just 22 years old, though that is probably more comfort to his owners in keeper leagues. Still, the advances that Young has made have been cancelled out by the regression in his power production. His 4.1 RC/27 is a tick lower than last year’s 4.2 mark. That level of production is passable in an AL-only league, especially for someone who can help with steals, but it is unacceptable in any mixed league. If you can afford to keep Young benched, it is worth doing so in case the breakthrough eventually comes, but he should not be on an active roster other than in very deep leagues.

Players With New Opportunities

Corey Patterson and Norris Hopper, OF, Cincinnati: Ken Griffey Jr., was the Reds' primary DH when they played nine consecutive games in AL parks. Patterson and Hopper were the main beneficiaries of increased playing time, as they filled the outfield spot vacated by Griffey. For the time being, both have been relegated to bench spots, but perhaps Reds fans saw a preview of their post-trade deadline outfield, should GM Walt Jocketty deal Junior or Adam Dunn within the next month.

When Patterson has played full-time he has been a good source of steals, most recently nabbing 82 bases over two seasons in Baltimore. Once upon a time, it looked like Patterson would be a threat to hit 30-plus homers a year, but he hasn't posted an Isolated Power average over .200 since 2003. He has cut down on his strikeouts dramatically, so he could manage to hit .280 even with mediocre power. First he has to crack .200 this year, but he will need to pull up his incredibly fluky 19 percent H/BIP. Despite his paltry current average, don't write Patterson off should he inherit a full-time job. He could be worth rostering for his steals, runs scored and average (yes, average), even in a mixed league.

Year Team Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP RC/27
2006 Baltimore 4% 20% 0.166 32% 5.3
2007 Baltimore 4% 14% 0.117 30% 4.3
2008 Cincinnati 4% 12% 0.153 19% 2.4

Hopper is similar to Patterson in several ways: as the table below shows, he doesn't walk much, but he doesn't strike out much either. Like Patterson, he's also speedy on the basepaths. The important difference between the two outfielders is that Hopper has no power whatsoever. If he played everyday, he would have Juan Pierre-like stats, except with 25 to 35 fewer steals. Pierre with all of his steals is not exactly a must-own, so a version of him with half the steals is even less so. If an outfield spot opens up, in all likelihood, Patterson would get most of the reps with Hopper batting against lefties.

Year Team Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP RC/27
2006 Louisville (Triple-A) 5% 7% 0.045 37% N/A
2007 Cincinnati 6% 11% 0.059 37% 5.2
2008 Cincinnati 8% 12% 0.000 23% 2.2

Jeff Baker, 2B and Ryan Spilborghs, OF, Colorado: Baker and Spilborghs filled in at DH during recent series at Kansas City and Detroit. Should the Rockies deal Garrett Atkins or Matt Holliday, Baker and Spilborghs would likely be their respective replacements. With a strong June, Baker has positioned himself well for continued playing time. He has enough power for a third baseman or outfielder, even though his main position is second base. Baker's current .279 average is a bit inflated due to a 37 percent H/BIP, but it is reasonable to expect him to hit .260 with 20-25 HR over the course of a full season. He's no Atkins, but with those numbers, you could easily justify using Baker to fill a 3B spot on a mixed league roster.

Year Team Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP RC/27
2006 Colorado Springs (Triple-A) 9% 23% 0.203 36% N/A
2007 Colorado 8% 28% 0.125 28% 3.0
2008 Colorado 6% 30% 0.214 37% 5.8

Over three seasons in Colorado, Spilborghs has done nicely for himself in a part-time role, hitting around .300 with moderate pop. He could also rack up double-digit steals given the chance to play everyday. Spilborghs' skill profile looks amazingly similar to David Murphy's, and Murphy has managed to do alright once given the chance to be a regular. At 28, though, Spilborghs is two years older than Murphy and is less likely to take the big step forward that Murphy has this season. Especially with an Isolated Power average that is consistently below .200, Spilborghs looks destined to be a fourth outfielder.

Year Team Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP RC/27
2006 Colorado 8% 18% 0.144 33% 4.6
2007 Colorado 10% 17% 0.186 33% 6.5
2008 Colorado 16% 18% 0.157 34% 6.8

For most of the NL designated hitters, this week marks a return back to the unglamorous utility roles they held up until two weeks ago. In all likelihood, Hopper and Spilborghs will join the ranks of DH temps like Wes Helms and Greg Norton, filling in for injured players and otherwise picking up just a few at-bats per week. Patterson and Baker may take a different path, especially if rumored trades take place before the deadline. Given an opportunity, both could parlay some recent skills growth into performances that could help your Fantasy squad.

Glossary
Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James
Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James
Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30%
Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth
Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks)
Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.

 
 
 
 
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