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Scott White

Silders: Does NL stand for No Love?

By | Fantasy Writer


Well, I did it again.

Knowing the uproar I created last time and the hundreds of sleepless nights I spent tossing and turning, haunted by the lives I'd affected, by the leagues I'd affected, I again committed the cardinal sin for anyone attempting to write for a general audience.

I specialized. I addressed only one side of the coin, forsaking those on the other and leading them down a dark path without a light to show them the way.

Yes, in last week's Sliders column, I didn't mention a single player from the National League.

I had my choice of 400 and turned my back on all of them, instead focusing on that other lot of 350. In doing so, I alienated a significant percentage of the Fantasy community -- the NL-only leaguers -- leaving them to fend for themselves without so much as a whisper of what to do next.

And on quiet nights, when the wind hits the foyer just right, I can still hear their cries for help.

Granted, 90 percent of readers didn't even notice because they play in mixed or AL-only leagues, but from the 10 percent that did notice, I felt the heat, and it made me sweat the smelly sweat of sorrow.

So with their permission and yours, I'd like to atone. I'd like to open a new chapter on a new day and lead all the Fantasy leaguers -- the NL-only, the AL-only, the mixed -- side-by-side-by-side, leaving none behind as we walk down that dark path to the glory that awaits us in Fantasy Week 26.

But I know what you're thinking: Why walk when we can slide? I couldn't agree more.

Sliders These guys' recent performances signify more than a hot or cold streak. Their Fantasy appeal has actually "slid" either up or down.

Jair Jurrjens, SP, Braves

Jurrjens plays in the NL. Just thought you'd like to know.

Jair Jurrjens has quietly has a very nice season for the Braves. (US Presswire)  
Jair Jurrjens has quietly has a very nice season for the Braves. (US Presswire)  
He also plays well, looking at his numbers from his last three starts. Over that period, he has a 0.00 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP, striking out 14 batters in 21 2/3 innings. In fact, if you look at his season marks of an 8-3 record and 2.94 ERA, you probably don't need me to tell you he's a pretty good pitcher.

But you might not know just how good. Those numbers, as much as they tell of his success, don't quite do him justice thanks to a three-start stretch at the end of May when he had a blister problem on his throwing hand. His numbers changed so dramatically during that time you almost have to throw them out.

And if you do, check out what remains: a 7-3 record, a 1.95 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP.

If not for that blister problem, Jurrjens might have an ERA below 2.00, meaning we might be calling him the Justin Duchscherer of the National League, only with plenty of room to grow and develop at age 22.

And although I prefer my Fantasy pitchers to get more strikeouts than Jurrjens does, I can't write off this performance as a fluke. Jurrjens had enough of a pedigree in the Tigers organization that the Braves gave up Edgar Renteria, an All-Star shortstop, to acquire him.

So while he hasn't created quite the stir Edinson Volquez has, Jurrjens' numbers don't trail the Reds right-hander's by much. Time to make him a permanent fixture in your lineup.

Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox

Players get hot -- this much we know.

So some might look at Pedroia's .528 batting average since the middle of June and write it off as nothing more than a little player stepping up in a big way.

I beg to differ.

The hot streak came at a fitting time for the 5-foot-9 25-year-old. He had a .262 batting average after he'd already established himself as a high-average hitter by batting .317 as a rookie last year. In other words, while Pedroia obviously won't hit .528 the rest of the year, he shouldn't have a counteractive cold streak waiting just around the corner. The hot streak served to normalize his stats, not abnormalize them.

And so with his batting average back at a level we can expect, we can now appreciate his gains in power and speed. His eight home runs and nine stolen bases put him on pace to join the 15-15 club, which while not as prestigious as the 30-30 club, is a nice contribution from a middle infielder, provided it accompanies a high batting average.

I don't mean to call Pedroia elite and place him in the same class as Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, Dan Uggla, Brandon Phillips and Brian Roberts, but if you want the guy I'd take directly after them, look no further than Pedroia.

Nate McLouth, OF, Pirates

I know; I know -- we all had to expect McLouth to come back down to earth. I did. You did. Little Jimmy across the way did.

(Across the way? What is this farm boy talking about?)

But "down to earth" is such vague terminology, and McLouth's tumble from the heavens has met with such a thud I'd call it more like "through the earth" or "to the core" or ... something much worse than I expected, in any case.

Don't get me wrong: I don't expect his .214 batting average and .622 OPS in June to last either, but they depart so much from his April and May numbers that neither gives a good indication of his final tally.

So I'll try splitting the difference and project him for a .280-.285 batting average with 26 home runs and 18 stolen bases -- numbers that still make him a must-start in most Fantasy leagues, but not a No. 1 outfield option. Really, teammate Jason Bay might do more for your Fantasy team going forward.

Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Astros

In a Dear Mr. Fantasy column earlier this season, I called Rodriguez "idiot proof" because he suffered from Ervin Santana syndrome last year. He had a 2.94 ERA at home and a 6.37 ERA on the road.

Well, like Santana, Rodriguez has begun to sing a different tune, normalizing his inconsistencies into an all-around impressive stat line. Over his last three starts, he has a good start on the road (5 2/3 innings, two earned runs, six strikeouts at Tampa Bay), a bad start at home (five innings, five earned runs, one strikeout against the Yankees) and a terrific start at home against one of the best-hitting teams in baseball (eight innings, one earned run, nine strikeouts against the Rangers).

In short, both his 1.89 ERA at home and his 3.80 ERA on the road get the job done in Fantasy.

He's always had great strikeout-to-walk ratios and the ability to succeed in Fantasy if he could ever find consistency. Now that he appears to have it, take a flier on him in all leagues.

Matt Garza, SP, Rays

Garza's minor-league numbers read as nothing short of jaw-dropping, but the 24-year-old had trouble translating them to the big leagues because of recurring control problems.

He looks like he's whipped those problems now, averaging 1 1/2 walks in 6 2/3 innings over his last six starts. Not surprisingly, he has a 3.43 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP over that same stretch, striking out 36 batters in 39 1/3 innings.

His one-hitter against the Marlins last week shows just how much progress he's made, and for the first time in his career, he looks like he deserves a starting spot in mixed leagues, regardless of matchup.

Hanging Sliders These guys look like Sliders, but not so fast! Their recent performances might cause you to misinterpret their Fantasy appeal.

Aubrey Huff, 1B, Orioles

Everyone looks at Huff's .344 batting average and .613 slugging percentage in June and thinks he's reverted back to his Tampa Bay days. Well, let me tell you something about those Tampa Bay days: They were vastly overrated.

See, Huff has reverted back to his Tampa Bay days because in those days, he'd have one or two months of spectacular numbers surrounded by four months of mediocrity.

During that three-year period from 2002 to 2004, I made sure I had Huff on my Fantasy team because I wanted him active for that 60-day offensive explosion. I called it Aubrey-mania, and I eventually hoped to make hats, t-shirts, buttons and a whole line of commemorative merchandise that I'd have to store in my garage because no one would want to buy it.

Every year, I foretold the coming of Aubrey-mania, and every year it came. And every year when it came, I'd ask my leaguemates if they remembered it from the year before, and every year, they'd say no.

Aubrey-mania was the Great Pumpkin to my Linus Van Pelt.

So as the foremost expert on the matter, I declare that Aubrey-mania has officially come and gone. Only mediocrity remains. Huff's 2-for-9 performance entering Monday signals his eventual return to low-end corner-infield status in mixed leagues.

Change-up Every week, I make terrible errors in judgment. It happens to us all, and if it didn't, Fantasy wouldn't be a game worth playing. Fortunately, I permit myself the opportunity to correct one of my mistakes by throwing a change-up.

Bobby Abreu, OF, Yankees

I sometimes wonder if players actually read my column as some sort of motivational ploy. How else do you explain Abreu blowing up for his best week of the season right after I blasted him for having across-the-board sinking stats?

In Fantasy Week 13, he hit .474 (9-for-19) with two home runs and three stolen bases. He even walked five times after I blamed his lack of walks for his poor numbers.

He still doesn't walk nearly as much as he did during his glory years, and his stats will likely suffer as a result. But his big week put him back on pace for a 20-20 season, and a 20-20 outfielder ranks inside the top 25, not outside the top 30 as I stated last week.

So I won't give Abreu a huge boost, but I'll admit I overstated his decline last week. Fair enough?

You can e-mail Scott your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Sliders in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.We'll answer as many as we can.

 
 
 
Player News
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Dice-K throwing off mound
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, BOS
11:52 AM
News: The Boston Globe reports while Red Sox pitchers and catchers don't officially have to report until Sunday, some players have arrived early, including SP Daisuke Matsuzaka. The paper noted that Matsuzaka, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery in June, was throwing off a mound with manager Bobby Valentine watching.
Analysis: Clearly, the fact Dice-K is already throwing off a mound is good news. However, we still have to temper expectations. It usually takes pitchers 12-18 months to recover from Tommy John surgery, so we aren't expecting to see Dice-K in a major-league game until mid-summer. We will continue to update his progress as the news warrants, but Dice-K is merely a draft-and-stash option in the deepest of Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

David Ortiz
Ortiz settles before hearing
David Ortiz, DH, BOS
11:11 AM
News: DH David Ortiz and the Red Sox came to terms on a one-year contract hours before the two sides were set to go to an arbitration hearing. Ortiz signed a one-year, $14.575 million contract.
Analysis: Now that Ortiz has this business out of the way he can get down to focusing on the baseball aspect of things. Ortiz hit .309 with 29 homers and 96 RBI in 2011. He is DH-eligible only in Fantasy, which hurts his appeal a bit. But Ortiz remains a viable early-to-mid-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day.

Chris Snyder
Snyder fully recovered from surgery
Chris Snyder, C, HOU
12:27 PM
News: The Houston Chronicle reports Astros catcher Chris Snyder said he is fully recovered from the back surgery he had in June.
Analysis: A lot of folks feel Snyder will make the Astros roster out of camp, but he still needs to prove he is past his back problem, which robbed him of most of the 2011 season with Pittsburgh. Manager Brad Mills has already said Jason Castro is the team's starting catcher, but he is recovering from foot surgery and isn't expected to be ready for spring games until the second week of the exhibition schedule. In the meantime, Snyder will be battling Humberto Quintero for the backup role. Snyder has decent pop for a catcher, but his strength is defense. Snyder is more of an NL-only Fantasy option.

Ian Desmond
Nats convinced Desmond will re-emerge
Ian Desmond, SS, WAS
11:41 AM
News: CSN Washington reports the Nationals are convinced shortstop Ian Desmond is in for a bounce-back season in 2012 because of two trends they spotted in 2011. The first is that Desmond made significant strides at the plate in the second half of last season. After hitting .223 with a .264 OBP and .308 slugging percentage before the All-Star break, Desmond hit .289 with a .338 OBP and .417 slugging percentage down the stretch. He really thrived when manager Davey Johnson made him the leadoff hitter, which is a position he is expected to keep heading into the spring. The second trend is that Desmond's defense improved as the season progressed. He committed seven errors in his first 20 games and just 16 over his final 134.
Analysis: A lot of folks were excited about Desmond's 2011 outlook after he played well in his first two MLB stints in 2009 and 2010. Unfortunately, Desmond took a step back last year and will plummet down Fantasy draft boards because of it. Clearly, there is potential with Desmond. But don't reach for him on Draft Day. Let him fall to the late rounds in mixed leagues and hope that you grab a bounce-back candidate.

Phil Hughes
Hughes appears ready to compete
Phil Hughes, SP, NYY
11:26 AM
News: Newsday reports Yankees SP Phil Hughes, who looks noticeably slimmer and more muscular, said he weighs about 240 pounds. He added that in the offseason he changed his "body composition."
Analysis: The early word from Yankees camp is that Hughes is in shape and ready to compete for a spot in the rotation. Although, he is on the outside looking in if the Yankees don't trade A.J. Burnett. Though, if Hughes proves to be more valuable in the rotation than the bullpen, then the Yankees might have to reconsider his role in 2012. Let's see how Hughes does this spring training before making a final evaluation about his 2012 outlook, but clearly him being in shape is a good start. Hughes could be a viable Fantasy option again if he returns to the 18-8 pitcher he was in 2010.

Jon Garland
Garland gets shot with Indians
Jon Garland, SP, LAD
10:37 AM
News: The Indians signed SP Jon Garland to a minor-league deal on Monday. Garland, who last pitched for the Dodgers, was limited to only nine starts last season before having arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder in June.
Analysis: Garland will most likely compete with Kevin Slowey for the final spot in the Indians rotation, but he's a hittable pitcher who now may be working with less than his best stuff coming off shoulder surgery. Even if he's able to win a rotation spot, he won't be worth drafting outside of deeper AL-only leagues.

A.J. Burnett
Yanks, Pirates still talking Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
2/12/2012
News: The New York Daily News reports the Yankees and Pirates continued to talk Sunday about completing a trade for A.J. Burnett, but a baseball source said the sides are still "a good ways away" from agreeing on the final terms. The source added the Pirates are willing to pay $10 million of the remaining $33 million Burnett is owed over the next two seasons, but Pittsburgh has offered "two borderline prospects" in return. The Yankees could be willing to pay more of Burnett's remaining contract if they receive a top-tier prospect from Pittsburgh. A person familiar with the Yankees' thinking believes there is enough common ground that a deal could be completed in the coming days. However, ESPN.com reports their source said the Yankees aren't desperate to make a trade and the team would go to spring training with Burnett if a deal isn't completed.
Analysis: Leaving the Yankees usually has a negative impact on a player's Fantasy value, but in Burnett's case it might be the opposite, especially if he moves to the NL. He has struggled to handle the pressure of pitching in New York and a fresh start could be what he needs. Burnett had some of his best years in the majors pitching in the NL. Still, Burnett would be nothing more than a risky late-round Fantasy pick in mixed leagues.

Josh Johnson
JJ continues to feel no discomfort
Josh Johnson, SP, MIA
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Marlins SP Josh Johnson arrived to the team's spring training complex in Jupiter, Fla., on Feb. 9, more than a week ahead of the Marlins reporting date for pitchers and catchers. Johnson, who has been throwing off a mound near his home in Las Vegas, threw his first bullpen session of the year in Florida on Feb. 10. He felt no discomfort and expects to be ready for the first workouts on Feb. 22. He made only nine starts last year because of shoulder issues.
Analysis: Any encouraging news regarding JJ is welcomed. But Fantasy owners do have to be aware of the risk of drafting him. Of course his potential makes it worth it, but JJ has made it past 30 starts just once in his career. Look to Johnson as more of a No. 2 Fantasy SP on Draft Day, but clearly he has the potential to be your ace if he can stay healthy.

Hunter Pence
Pence likely to hit cleanup
Hunter Pence, RF, PHI
2/12/2012
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports Phillies manager Charlie Manuel has to find a cleanup hitter with Ryan Howard expected to miss the beginning of the season recovering from an Achilles injury, and he said his choice going into spring training is Hunter Pence.
Analysis: Pence either hit right in front of or right behind Howard after his acquisition from Houston last season and thrived in the Phillies lineup. He will miss Howard's lineup protection, but might only have to play a month without Howard. In the meantime, Pence should get plenty of RBI chances batting cleanup, and he will still have plenty of lineup protection without Howard. Look to Pence in the early rounds of Fantasy drafts.

Jason Vargas
Vargas expected to pitch in A's series
Jason Vargas, SP, SEA
2/12/2012
News: Mariners manager Eric Wedge hinted Sunday that ace Felix Hernandez and Jason Vargas are the leading candidates to start the team's first two games against the A's in Japan. "That's one of the reasons we're here early, to make sure we get Felix ready and we're probably looking at Vargas right now in regard to the first couple games," Wedge said, as reported by MLB.com. "It is a little odd, but that's OK. That's part of it. We're professionals here and we have to get multiple starters prepared for the regular season. It's not just about those two guys, it's about everybody else as well. We've got a lot of starting pitchers here in camp and we'll see how it plays out. I'm looking forward to the competition."
Analysis: Believe it or not, but Vargas is arguably the M's second-best pitcher heading into spring training. He has been a steady part of the M's rotation the last two seasons. He is 19-25 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 63 starts since the beginning of the 2010 campaign. However, he is not a dominant pitcher and has weak strikeout totals, so Vargas is nothing more than a low-end Fantasy SP on Draft Day.

 
 
 
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