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Scott White

Silders: Does NL stand for No Love?

By | Fantasy Writer


Well, I did it again.

Knowing the uproar I created last time and the hundreds of sleepless nights I spent tossing and turning, haunted by the lives I'd affected, by the leagues I'd affected, I again committed the cardinal sin for anyone attempting to write for a general audience.

I specialized. I addressed only one side of the coin, forsaking those on the other and leading them down a dark path without a light to show them the way.

Yes, in last week's Sliders column, I didn't mention a single player from the National League.

I had my choice of 400 and turned my back on all of them, instead focusing on that other lot of 350. In doing so, I alienated a significant percentage of the Fantasy community -- the NL-only leaguers -- leaving them to fend for themselves without so much as a whisper of what to do next.

And on quiet nights, when the wind hits the foyer just right, I can still hear their cries for help.

Granted, 90 percent of readers didn't even notice because they play in mixed or AL-only leagues, but from the 10 percent that did notice, I felt the heat, and it made me sweat the smelly sweat of sorrow.

So with their permission and yours, I'd like to atone. I'd like to open a new chapter on a new day and lead all the Fantasy leaguers -- the NL-only, the AL-only, the mixed -- side-by-side-by-side, leaving none behind as we walk down that dark path to the glory that awaits us in Fantasy Week 26.

But I know what you're thinking: Why walk when we can slide? I couldn't agree more.

Sliders These guys' recent performances signify more than a hot or cold streak. Their Fantasy appeal has actually "slid" either up or down.

Jair Jurrjens, SP, Braves

Jurrjens plays in the NL. Just thought you'd like to know.

Jair Jurrjens has quietly has a very nice season for the Braves. (US Presswire)  
Jair Jurrjens has quietly has a very nice season for the Braves. (US Presswire)  
He also plays well, looking at his numbers from his last three starts. Over that period, he has a 0.00 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP, striking out 14 batters in 21 2/3 innings. In fact, if you look at his season marks of an 8-3 record and 2.94 ERA, you probably don't need me to tell you he's a pretty good pitcher.

But you might not know just how good. Those numbers, as much as they tell of his success, don't quite do him justice thanks to a three-start stretch at the end of May when he had a blister problem on his throwing hand. His numbers changed so dramatically during that time you almost have to throw them out.

And if you do, check out what remains: a 7-3 record, a 1.95 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP.

If not for that blister problem, Jurrjens might have an ERA below 2.00, meaning we might be calling him the Justin Duchscherer of the National League, only with plenty of room to grow and develop at age 22.

And although I prefer my Fantasy pitchers to get more strikeouts than Jurrjens does, I can't write off this performance as a fluke. Jurrjens had enough of a pedigree in the Tigers organization that the Braves gave up Edgar Renteria, an All-Star shortstop, to acquire him.

So while he hasn't created quite the stir Edinson Volquez has, Jurrjens' numbers don't trail the Reds right-hander's by much. Time to make him a permanent fixture in your lineup.

Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox

Players get hot -- this much we know.

So some might look at Pedroia's .528 batting average since the middle of June and write it off as nothing more than a little player stepping up in a big way.

I beg to differ.

The hot streak came at a fitting time for the 5-foot-9 25-year-old. He had a .262 batting average after he'd already established himself as a high-average hitter by batting .317 as a rookie last year. In other words, while Pedroia obviously won't hit .528 the rest of the year, he shouldn't have a counteractive cold streak waiting just around the corner. The hot streak served to normalize his stats, not abnormalize them.

And so with his batting average back at a level we can expect, we can now appreciate his gains in power and speed. His eight home runs and nine stolen bases put him on pace to join the 15-15 club, which while not as prestigious as the 30-30 club, is a nice contribution from a middle infielder, provided it accompanies a high batting average.

I don't mean to call Pedroia elite and place him in the same class as Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, Dan Uggla, Brandon Phillips and Brian Roberts, but if you want the guy I'd take directly after them, look no further than Pedroia.

Nate McLouth, OF, Pirates

I know; I know -- we all had to expect McLouth to come back down to earth. I did. You did. Little Jimmy across the way did.

(Across the way? What is this farm boy talking about?)

But "down to earth" is such vague terminology, and McLouth's tumble from the heavens has met with such a thud I'd call it more like "through the earth" or "to the core" or ... something much worse than I expected, in any case.

Don't get me wrong: I don't expect his .214 batting average and .622 OPS in June to last either, but they depart so much from his April and May numbers that neither gives a good indication of his final tally.

So I'll try splitting the difference and project him for a .280-.285 batting average with 26 home runs and 18 stolen bases -- numbers that still make him a must-start in most Fantasy leagues, but not a No. 1 outfield option. Really, teammate Jason Bay might do more for your Fantasy team going forward.

Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Astros

In a Dear Mr. Fantasy column earlier this season, I called Rodriguez "idiot proof" because he suffered from Ervin Santana syndrome last year. He had a 2.94 ERA at home and a 6.37 ERA on the road.

Well, like Santana, Rodriguez has begun to sing a different tune, normalizing his inconsistencies into an all-around impressive stat line. Over his last three starts, he has a good start on the road (5 2/3 innings, two earned runs, six strikeouts at Tampa Bay), a bad start at home (five innings, five earned runs, one strikeout against the Yankees) and a terrific start at home against one of the best-hitting teams in baseball (eight innings, one earned run, nine strikeouts against the Rangers).

In short, both his 1.89 ERA at home and his 3.80 ERA on the road get the job done in Fantasy.

He's always had great strikeout-to-walk ratios and the ability to succeed in Fantasy if he could ever find consistency. Now that he appears to have it, take a flier on him in all leagues.

Matt Garza, SP, Rays

Garza's minor-league numbers read as nothing short of jaw-dropping, but the 24-year-old had trouble translating them to the big leagues because of recurring control problems.

He looks like he's whipped those problems now, averaging 1 1/2 walks in 6 2/3 innings over his last six starts. Not surprisingly, he has a 3.43 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP over that same stretch, striking out 36 batters in 39 1/3 innings.

His one-hitter against the Marlins last week shows just how much progress he's made, and for the first time in his career, he looks like he deserves a starting spot in mixed leagues, regardless of matchup.

Hanging Sliders These guys look like Sliders, but not so fast! Their recent performances might cause you to misinterpret their Fantasy appeal.

Aubrey Huff, 1B, Orioles

Everyone looks at Huff's .344 batting average and .613 slugging percentage in June and thinks he's reverted back to his Tampa Bay days. Well, let me tell you something about those Tampa Bay days: They were vastly overrated.

See, Huff has reverted back to his Tampa Bay days because in those days, he'd have one or two months of spectacular numbers surrounded by four months of mediocrity.

During that three-year period from 2002 to 2004, I made sure I had Huff on my Fantasy team because I wanted him active for that 60-day offensive explosion. I called it Aubrey-mania, and I eventually hoped to make hats, t-shirts, buttons and a whole line of commemorative merchandise that I'd have to store in my garage because no one would want to buy it.

Every year, I foretold the coming of Aubrey-mania, and every year it came. And every year when it came, I'd ask my leaguemates if they remembered it from the year before, and every year, they'd say no.

Aubrey-mania was the Great Pumpkin to my Linus Van Pelt.

So as the foremost expert on the matter, I declare that Aubrey-mania has officially come and gone. Only mediocrity remains. Huff's 2-for-9 performance entering Monday signals his eventual return to low-end corner-infield status in mixed leagues.

Change-up Every week, I make terrible errors in judgment. It happens to us all, and if it didn't, Fantasy wouldn't be a game worth playing. Fortunately, I permit myself the opportunity to correct one of my mistakes by throwing a change-up.

Bobby Abreu, OF, Yankees

I sometimes wonder if players actually read my column as some sort of motivational ploy. How else do you explain Abreu blowing up for his best week of the season right after I blasted him for having across-the-board sinking stats?

In Fantasy Week 13, he hit .474 (9-for-19) with two home runs and three stolen bases. He even walked five times after I blamed his lack of walks for his poor numbers.

He still doesn't walk nearly as much as he did during his glory years, and his stats will likely suffer as a result. But his big week put him back on pace for a 20-20 season, and a 20-20 outfielder ranks inside the top 25, not outside the top 30 as I stated last week.

So I won't give Abreu a huge boost, but I'll admit I overstated his decline last week. Fair enough?

You can e-mail Scott your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Sliders in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.We'll answer as many as we can.

 
 
 
Player News
Johan Santana
Santana looks 'great' playing catch
Johan Santana, SP, NYM
2:25 PM
News: The Wall Street Journal reports Mets SP Johan Santana (shoulder) played catch from 175 feet Monday. Manager Terry Collins said Santana looked "great" and he hopes the left-hander will throw off a mound by the end of the week.
Analysis: Collins' assessment of Santana sounds like cautious optimism. After all it was just catch. Santana has bigger hurdles to clear in hopes of pitching for the first time since the 2010 season. Santana is coming off a serious shoulder injury and who knows if he can return to the dominant arm he once was. Fantasy owners should bear in mind that Chien-Ming Wang, who underwent the same procedure, needed two years to make it back to the majors, so Santana could wind up providing far fewer than 25 starts -- which is the Mets' goal for the lefty this season. Because of the playing time risk, he is a late-round option in mixed leagues at best.

Ryan Braun
Braun ruling coming soon?
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
1:51 PM
News: The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports there is no indication that a ruling will be announced Monday regarding Ryan Braun's appeal of a 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It appears the recommended guideline for a ruling will be extended.
Analysis: The entire baseball world want this issue to be put to bed, but it seems we might have to wait a little longer for a ruling. The Brewers remain upbeat about Braun's situation, but only time will tell what happens. If Braun avoids a suspension, then he remains a first-round Fantasy pick. If he is suspended 50 games, then he is going to tumble down draft boards a bit, but Braun would still be an early-round Fantasy selection based on potential once he becomes active.

Seth Smith
Cespedes to bump Smith?
Seth Smith, RF, OAK
1:37 PM
News: Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes and the Oakland Athletics have agreed to a $36 million, four-year contract. Agent Adam Katz confirmed Monday the sides had reached agreement, with details still to be finalized. Cespedes' arrival means the A's could eventually bump Seth Smith to designated hitter.
Analysis: We will have to wait and see what happens when Cespedes finally arrives at A's camp, but the speculation is that the A's outfield alignment will eventually be Josh Reddick in right field, Coco Crisp in center field and Cespedes in left, which is where Smith is currently penciled in as the starter. But the A's could use a rotation at DH, which would still allow Smith to see regular at-bats, if Cespedes doesn't have to begin the year in the minors, which remains an option as well. Smith struggles against left-handed pitchers, so he might still be in a platoon situation like he was with the Rockies. Smith remains more of a late-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Mike Napoli
Napoli's ankle still an issue
Mike Napoli, C, TEX
12:48 PM
News: ESPN.com reports Rangers catcher Mike Napoli said his injured left ankle is progressing, but he is still not 100 percent. Napoli turned his ankle in the World Series against the Cardinals last year. "I think I’m close," Napoli said. "I’m not really going to know until I get into the wear and tear of spring training and catching all the time. But I've been feeling good and getting better day by day." Napoli said he has been running on the ankle, and he is also hitting and throwing without pain. However, he is still concerned about how it will hold up with the constant squatting and baseball activity. "But I'm trying not to do that all the time so I'm not depending on that," Napoli said. "I'm working on getting my little muscles stronger."
Analysis: The Dallas Morning News reports GM Jon Daniels said exams by team physician Keith Meister said Napoli's ankle shows no structural damage, but Napoli is still experiencing soreness. "The fact he's still feeling it a few months later speaks to what he went through to play the rest of Game 6 and go back out for Game 7," Daniels said. "It was about as bad as it looked to the rest of us." You have to wonder if Napoli can't shake this injury if it will play into how much time he gets behind the plate. Nonetheless, if Napoli catches less that just means he will likely see more PT at DH and first base. The Rangers aren't going to take his bat out of the lineup. Napoli remains a top 5 Fantasy catcher on Draft Day.

Vladimir Guerrero
Guerrero wants to be Yankees' DH
Vladimir Guerrero, DH, BAL
2:51 PM
News: ESPN reports free agent Vladimir Guerrero has told the Yankees he wants to be their designated hitter, a role that became vacant when Jesus Montero was traded to Seattle. Newsday first reported in mid-January that a rep for Guerrero contacted the Yankees about the DH role. ESPN reports Raul Ibanez is still considered the front-runner to sign with the Yankees as their DH.
Analysis: It's not hard to see why Guerrero wants to join a loaded Yankees lineup. However, the 37-year-old slugger probably didn't instill a lot of faith in the New York brass after the lukewarm season he put together in 2011 for the Orioles. It's true that Guerrero thrived in a loaded Rangers lineup in 2010, but who knows if he can still play at that level. Until he signs with a team, then Guerrero can probably be left off Fantasy rosters.

Josh Hamilton
Hamilton expected to arrive on time
Josh Hamilton, LF, TEX
12:55 PM
News: The Dallas Morning News reports Rangers GM Jon Daniels said he expects Josh Hamilton to report for spring training on time despite a recent revelation that Hamilton had a relapse in his quest to stay sober. Hamilton's admission led to a meeting with doctors associated with an after-care program run by MLB and the players association. The doctors have appeared to eliminate the option of sending Hamilton to rehab. Position players for the Rangers don't have to report until Feb. 25. "His health and his family are the priorities. We're not going to pre-empt that for anything about a contract," Daniels said about contract extension talks regarding Hamilton.
Analysis: Because of his recent relapse, Hamilton's prospects for a multi-year deal with Texas may be jeopardized for the time being. Though Hamilton has had to grapple with his addictions during his time with the Rangers, they haven't impacted his on-the-field performance. Hamilton remains an early-round target in all Fantasy formats.

Daisuke Matsuzaka
Dice-K throwing off mound
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, BOS
11:52 AM
News: The Boston Globe reports while Red Sox pitchers and catchers don't officially have to report until Sunday, some players have arrived early, including SP Daisuke Matsuzaka. The paper noted that Matsuzaka, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery in June, was throwing off a mound with manager Bobby Valentine watching.
Analysis: Clearly, the fact Dice-K is already throwing off a mound is good news. However, we still have to temper expectations. It usually takes pitchers 12-18 months to recover from Tommy John surgery, so we aren't expecting to see Dice-K in a major-league game until mid-summer. We will continue to update his progress as the news warrants, but Dice-K is merely a draft-and-stash option in the deepest of Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

James Paxton
Paxton working on changeup
James Paxton, RP, SEA
1:21 PM
News: The Seattle Times reports Mariners SP prospect James Paxton said he is working a changeup into his repertoire. "It's something I've been working on for a while and that they figure is going to help me by adding another weapon,'' Paxton said. Paxton has been invited to major-league camp, but he appears to be a long shot to make the opening-day roster. "I'm just honored to be invited here,'' Paxton said. "This is a fantastic opportunity and I'm going to try to learn as much as I can.''
Analysis: After pitching in independent ball for a year, Paxton finally joined the minors in 2011. He had a successful run in Class A and Double-A. He went 6-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 17 starts. More importantly, he struck out 12.4 batters per nine innings. If Paxton has an impressive spring and gets off to a fast start in the minors, then he might arrive in the majors in 2012. However, he remains more of a long-term Fantasy keeper until he gets closer to his MLB debut.

Koji Uehara
Uehara pitched through elbow issue?
Koji Uehara, RP, TEX
1:02 PM
News: The Dallas Morning News reports Rangers RP Koji Uehara hinted on his blog that he received an injection into his right elbow last season. Uehara also posted that he threw 100 pitches in a bullpen session Sunday before departing Japan for spring training.
Analysis: Uehara has his history of injury issues, but he pitched for the Orioles and Rangers last season and neither team hinted at elbow problems. Uehara in fact posted a career-best 2.35 ERA in 65 outings. The Rangers are shopping Uehara because of a plethora of bullpen arms. Uehara will have value in deeper Rotisserie leagues for his low ERA, low WHIP and high strikeout rate. If he goes somewhere that needs a closer, his stock would rise, but he would still be a low-end option.

David Ortiz
Ortiz settles before hearing
David Ortiz, DH, BOS
11:11 AM
News: DH David Ortiz and the Red Sox came to terms on a one-year contract hours before the two sides were set to go to an arbitration hearing. Ortiz signed a one-year, $14.575 million contract.
Analysis: Now that Ortiz has this business out of the way he can get down to focusing on the baseball aspect of things. Ortiz hit .309 with 29 homers and 96 RBI in 2011. He is DH-eligible only in Fantasy, which hurts his appeal a bit. But Ortiz remains a viable early-to-mid-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day.

 
 
 
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