By the Numbers: The beauty of Twins
By Al Melchior | Special to CBSSports.com Follow AlFollow CBS Fantasy Baseball
For another week, a team from the AL Central gets to have its moment in the sun. Last week at this time, the Royals were on a winning streak and Fantasy owners made David DeJesus and Mike Aviles two of the top AL pickups. Kansas City has since cooled off, but Minnesota has picked up the slack, winning 13 of their last 15 games. Naturally, a pair of Twins -- Kevin Slowey and Jason Kubel -- are among the popular AL free agent claims. Owners are so enthralled with this team that they are snapping up Twins-by-association. Nevermind that Matt Garza was traded by Minnesota in the offseason or that Grant Balfour is four years removed from playing for the organization; apparently something special from the navy blue uniform has rubbed off on them. I suppose if CBSSports.com allowed owners to claim Kent Hrbek and Gary Gaetti, they would be finding roster spaces, too.
A few weeks back, I mentioned in this space that Slowey would be a useful Fantasy pitcher as long as you keep him on reserves when he has a start in a homer-friendly park. His last bad start was at U.S. Cellular Field, a notorious launching pad. Set your alarms for Week 16, because the Twins are visiting Yankee Stadium in Week 17, and you may want to give Slowey a breather when pitching in those homer-happy confines.
Garza has already been an integral part of the Rays' amazing success, and Balfour is starting to make his mark as their new closer. There is no question that Balfour can pile on the strikeouts, but they don't call him Balfour for nothing. In 109 1/3 major league innings, he has given free passes to 65 hitters. Yep, that's more than one every two innings. That can't be good for Balfour's WHIP (1.48 in his big league career) or save percentage. Handle him with caution or maybe not at all.
More guys in demand
Jason Kubel, OF, Minnesota
Week 14 Ownership: 25 percent
Week 15 Ownership: 40 percent
Rank in AL Most Added: 5th
The Skinny: Kubel is another very popular Minnesotan, thanks to a sizzling June when he registered a 1.045 OPS. Last season, he put up middling Fantasy numbers, and he is sure to surpass his 13 HR, 65 RBI and 49 runs from '07. For Kubel to get his average much above his usual .260-.270 level, though, he either needs to sustain his recent power surge or strike out a lot less often. He did both of these things in the minors. There is no evidence that he will return to his contact-hitting ways, but he has steadily improved his Isolated Power since missing 2005 with a gruesome knee injury. As Kubel gets more distance from his injury and continues his development, he has the power potential to hit 25-30 homers a year with a batting average in the .280-.290 range. That's good enough for him to gain mixed league roster consideration.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2006 | Minnesota | 5% | 20% | 0.145 | 27% | 2.9 |
| 2007 | Minnesota | 9% | 19% | 0.177 | 31% | 5.4 |
| 2008 | Minnesota | 9% | 19% | 0.202 | 28% | 5.3 |
Chris Davis, 3B, Texas
Week 14 Ownership: 5 percent
Week 15 Ownership: 33 percent
Rank in AL Most Added: 1st
The Skinny: Enough Twins already. This Rangers prospect deserves our attention for clouting 35 bombs in just 406 at-bats in Double-A and Triple-A over the past year. It's also encouraging to see that he can take a walk, steal a handful of bases, and while he's not exactly a contact hitter, he's also not a whiffer of Custian proportions. To be sure, Davis has a small statistical sample from the upper minors (and virtually no major league sample). Still, there's something to be excited about here when you realize that Hank Blalock and Mark Teixeira didn't have power numbers this good when they played in the Double-A Texas League in their early 20s. Davis is definitely worth a flier if you have one of the many middle-of-the-road third basemen on your roster.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP |
| 2007 | Frisco (Double-A) | 11% | 25% | 0.394 | 29% |
| 2008 | Frisco (Double-A) | 7% | 24% | 0.285 | 38% |
| 2008 | Oklahoma (Triple-A) | 10% | 26% | 0.352 | 38% |
Others drawing interest
| Rank | Player | Week 14 ownership | Week 15 ownership | Percentage change |
| 2 | Kevin Slowey, SP, Minnesota | 41% | 61% | 20% |
| 3 | Matt Garza, SP, Tampa Bay | 62% | 80% | 18% |
| 4 | Grant Balfour, RP, Tampa Bay | 1% | 17% | 16% |
The guys dropping like flies
Joe Blanton, SP, Oakland
Week 14 Ownership: 62 percent
Week 15 Ownership: 56 percent
Rank in AL Most Dropped: 6th (tied)
The Skinny: Great things were expected of Blanton this year, as evidence by his 94 percent ownership rate in Week 1. Who could blame owners for their optimism? Blanton took a big step forward last season, and his 3.30 ERC (as compared to his actual 3.94 ERA) promised that even better things could lie ahead. Things started well enough in 2008, as Blanton won two games in April, while posting a 3.98 ERA. Since then, his season has spiraled out of control. He relies on superb control to keep his ERA and WHIP down, so Blanton's 12 walks in 27 2/3 June innings spelled disaster. He was not counted on to help with strikeouts, but with all of his skill indicators off their usual levels, Blanton has been of little use this season. He needs to stay on the Most Dropped List for a few more weeks.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | H/BIP | ERC |
| 2006 | Oakland | 2.7 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 34% | 5.09 |
| 2007 | Oakland | 1.6 | 5.5 | 0.6 | 30% | 3.30 |
| 2008 | Oakland | 2.6 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 30% | 4.42 |
Others wearing roster repellant
| Rank | Player | Week 14 ownership | Week 15 ownership | Percentage change |
| 1 | Darrell Rasner, SP, N.Y. Yankees | 55% | 34% | - 21% |
| 2 | Aaron Laffey, SP, Cleveland | 71% | 59% | - 12% |
| 3 | Ryan Garko, 1B, Cleveland | 58% | 48% | - 10% |
| 3 | Kenny Rogers, SP, Detroit | 48% | 38% | - 10% |
| 5 | Dan Giese, SP, N.Y. Yankees | 11% | 4% | - 7% |
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
