By the Numbers: Not so fast, my friend
By Al Melchior | Special to CBSSports.com Follow AlFollow CBS Fantasy Baseball
About a month ago, just as Ricky Nolasco's ownership numbers were starting to take off, I advised in this space to avoid him. His brief history of mediocre skill ratios at the major league level was a recipe for mediocre Fantasy stats, or so I thought. Since then, all Nolasco has done is win four straight decisions, strike out 35 batters in 36 2/3 innings, and lower his ERA by more than a run. Yes, keeping him off your roster was clearly a good idea.
In retrospect, I didn't put enough stock in Nolasco's minor league stats, which would have shown me that he had the potential to bump up his strikeout totals. This year, he has still had a problem keeping the ball inside Dolphin Stadium -- and the other parks he has visited. Maybe there's hope on that front, too: during Nolasco's recent five game hot stretch, he has given up only two jacks. Before we get carried away, remember that's a small sample to go by, and he doesn't yet have the track record to show that this is a trend that we can expect to continue.
If Nolasco can keep up his torrid strikeout pace and keep the homers down, he is certainly worth owning in all formats. He is a better pitcher than I initially made him out to be, but those are still big "ifs" for him to follow through on. At mininum, though, Nolasco is worth scouting to see if he can continue his improvement.
More guys in demand
Eric Stults, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Week 14 Ownership: 12 percent
Week 15 Ownership: 31 percent
Rank in NL Most Added: 2nd
The Skinny: Since his callup two weeks ago, Stults has been added to nearly one-third of all leagues on CBSSports.com. That's an awful lot of enthusiasm for a pitcher who, before this year, hadn't posted an ERA under 4.00 at any level since he did it in Double-A in 2005. This season marked the 28 year-old lefty’s fourth straight at Triple-A Las Vegas, and his prior results were uninspiring: an 18-25 record and a 5.73 ERA. Don't blame his skill ratios, though. Despite a low 90s fastball, he has shown himself to be a reliable source for strikeouts, including during his 38-plus inning stint with the Dodgers last year. He has minor struggles with control and long balls, but nothing significantly worse than what John Maine has gotten away with, for example. Despite the spotty track record, Stults has the skill profile of a back-of-the-rotation pitcher for mixed league rosters.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | H/BIP | ERC |
| 2006 | Las Vegas (Triple-A) | 4.0 | 7.5 | 0.6 | N/A | N/A |
| 2007 | Las Vegas (Triple-A) | 3.6 | 8.2 | 1.2 | N/A | N/A |
| 2007 | L.A. Dodgers | 4.0 | 7.0 | 1.2 | 36% | 6.25 |
| 2008 | Las Vegas (Triple-A) | 2.9 | 7.3 | 0.9 | N/A | N/A |
Kyle Kendrick, SP, Philadelphia
Week 14 Ownership: 19 percent
Week 15 Ownership: 29 percent
Rank in NL Most Added: 6th (tied)
The Skinny: Kendrick is an awful lot like teammate Jamie Moyer, except without all those strikeouts. Like the softer-tossing Moyer, Kendrick pitches to contact and gives up a few too many dingers, but he can be effective at times due to pinpoint control. Given that his HR/9 rate is one of his bigger problems, it's not surprising that he has pitched better away from Citizens Bank Park. In 10 road starts this year, Kendrick has a 5-1 record, 4.29 ERA and 1.0 HR/9 rate, as opposed to 3-2, 5.05 and 1.3 when pitching in Philly. Still, those road numbers aren't good enough to make it worth rostering Kendrick, even if you bench him when he pitches at home. As fun as it is to own a player whose name rhymes with "schmendrick," you really are better off leaving him off your pitching staff.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | H/BIP | ERC |
| 2007 | Reading (Double-A) | 2.0 | 5.5 | 0.3 | N/A | N/A |
| 2007 | Philadelphia | 1.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 29% | 4.23 |
| 2008 | Philadelphia | 2.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 29% | 4.79 |
Others drawing interest
| Rank | Player | Week 14 ownership | Week 15 ownership | Percentage change |
| 1 | Ricky Nolasco, SP, Florida | 43% | 69% | 26% |
| 3 | J.J. Hardy, SS, Milwaukee | 56% | 74% | 18% |
| 4 | Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Houston | 51% | 63% | 12% |
The guys dropping like flies
Greg Maddux, SP, San Diego
Week 14 Ownership: 63 percent
Week 15 Ownership: 56 percent
Rank in NL Most Dropped: 5th (tied)
The Skinny: If you're a pitcher who needs to get by on finesse, then it's a good thing when your skill indicators look like the ones below. Of course, even when Maddux didn't need control this good, he had it. Though Maddux's skill numbers look good enough, it is easy to understand why owners are scared off after two straight disastrous starts. We all know that feeling of "somebody has to be better than this guy." Depending on your league, that assumption may actually be true. Greg Smith, Jorge Campillo and Scott Baker are all arguably more valuable Fantasy pitchers than Maddux, and all are available in a larger percentage of our leagues than Maddux is.
However, when a pitcher like Kendrick is being added to leagues at the same time that Maddux is being dumped, too much emphasis is being put on pitchers' most recent performances. Because of scant run support, Maddux probably won't deliver many wins, but he can provide an ERA in the mid-3.00s and a WHIP around 1.25. In many leagues, those are stats worth keeping around.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | H/BIP | ERC |
| 2006 | Chicago Cubs/L.A. Dodgers | 1.6 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 30% | 3.39 |
| 2007 | San Diego | 1.1 | 4.7 | 0.6 | 32% | 3.54 |
| 2008 | San Diego | 1.8 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 29% | 3.60 |
Others wearing roster repellant
| Rank | Player | Week 14 ownership | Week 15 ownership | Percentage change |
| 1 | Sean Marshall, SP, Chicago Cubs | 16% | 7% | - 9% |
| 2 | Micah Owings, SP, Arizona | 78% | 70% | - 8% |
| 2 | Randy Wolf, SP, San Diego | 72% | 64% | - 8% |
| 2 | Braden Looper, SP, St. Louis | 53 | 45% | - 8% |
| 5 | Randy Johnson, SP, Arizona | 85% | 78% | - 7% |
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
