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Eric Mack

Week 15 Fantasy Stockwatch

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Every Monday we'll take a look at the Fantasy Baseball gainers and decliners in our Fantasy Stockwatch.

This week's potential 'Buy Guys'

RP Mike Gonzalez, ATL
We were skeptical about the Tommy John survivor returning immediately in the closer's role, but he is red hot and has worked back-to-back and multiple innings with four innings/three outings in four days. That is a signal he is ready to be full go as the Braves' closer now. Consider him a solid addition in all leagues now, especially with Rafael Soriano (elbow), Manny Acosta (hamstring) and Jeff Bennett (shoulder) on the DL. Gonzalez can be a top-10 Fantasy closer in the second half, and he is available in 55 percent of CBSSports.com's leagues at this point.
OF Cody Ross, FLA
Fantasy owners patiently waiting for the arrival of Cameron Maybin are overlooking the 27-year-old breakthrough of Ross. He is on pace for 27 homers and 87 RBI and is now locked in at the plate as the full-time center fielder for the Marlins. He is a streaky free-swinger, so you have to expect some cold streaks in the second half, but his huge weekend in Colorado has his ownership rising from 8 percent in Week 14 to 36 percent for Week 16. His pop, hot streak and full-time status combine to make him someone owning in at least 50 percent of leagues. In fact, he has a chance to outscore All-Star Ryan Ludwick here on out.
RP Grant Balfour, TB
Any team with studly starting pitching and the best record in baseball should generate a lot of save chances. Balfour is the man right now and he is on a wicked tear. The scrap heap find was once a well-regarded prospect in the minor leagues before injury woes and command allowed him to fall into the Rays' lap a year ago. Troy Percival (hamstring) will resume closer's duties once healthy, but that timetable has been pushed back and the Rays are strangely in a position to be patient. Balfour certainly affords them time with the overweight and out-of-shape veteran Percival, who was once retired and might be as certain to wind up back on the DL as he is certain to return to being a top Fantasy option at the closer position. Balfour is a must-have in AL-only leagues and any Rotisserie formats. He can be productive even as a setup man come August.
SP C.C. Sabathia, MIL
Traded to the Brewers, C.C. wants to drop the dots and be called CC. We reserve judgment on that, but we have to be excited to see Sabathia go to the NL and a top contender in Milwaukee. They can get him consistent run support and make him the potential top-five Fantasy pitcher owners thought they would be getting this spring. He is obviously a big loss for owners in AL-only formats that lose players dealt to the other league, but NL-only owners would be wise to burn all their FAAB for the ace lefty. We will be hard-pressed to get a player to switch leagues before the trade deadline with more potential to make a huge impact.
OF/1B Matt LaPorta, CLE
LaPorta was a long shot to help the contending Brewers down the stretch this season, especially because Ryan Braun was manning LaPorta's position. But now the potential future Fantasy first-rounder could arrive in Cleveland, which is rebuilding. LaPorta reports to Double-A Akron for now and will play in the Futures Game this Sunday, but he could position himself for a second-half call-up if he just keeps on doing what he is doing. LaPorta fills a hole immediately in Cleveland with power and the ability to play on the corner in the outfield or infield. We won't see him before Aug. 1 at this point, but AL-only Fantasy owners would be wise to stash the minors No. 1 slugging prospect.

Some more 'Buy Guys' we couldn't fit in: SP Clay Buchholz, BOS; SP Josh Johnson, FLA; RP Masahide Kobayashi, CLE; SP Chris Volstad, FLA; SP Mark Mulder, STL; SS J.J. Hardy, MIL; C Jeff Mathis, LAA; SP Manny Parra, MIL; SP Mike Pelfrey, NYM; SP Andy Sonnanstine, TB; SS Nomar Garciaparra, LAD; SP Oliver Perez, NYM; SP Seth McClung, MIL; OF Brett Gardner, NYY; C Kelly Shoppach, CLE; C Chris Iannetta, COL; SP Sean Marshall, CHC.

This week's potential 'Goodbye Guys'

SP Justin Masterson, BOS
Masterson has done nothing wrong, in fact, he is a victim of his own success and the failures of the Red Sox middle relief corps. Masterson enters the Pitch-22: Good enough to start, too valuable in relief. He was sent down Monday to become a bridge for Jonathan Papelbon, which the Red Sox sorely need. Yours truly has seen this coming, especially because he has a buggy-whip breaking ball that would make him nasty on right-handed hitters in the late innings. Masterson can return right after the All-Star break, but he will do so as a reliever that won't save games. That all but kills his Fantasy value outside of the deepest of AL-only or Rotisserie leagues that use true middle men. By the way, Buchholz is a must-add in all leagues. He would be our No. 1 stock up man, if we chose to use two of the top 10 spots here on one piece of news.
OF Ryan Church, NYM
Not quite a victim of his own success, but a victim nonetheless. The Mets sore need of Church's bat in the lineup has caused post-concussion syndrome -- an ailment that ended Corey Koskie's career among others -- to affect him from May until now. He is held up again by migraines and he might never prove to be the same again. There is .300-30-100-100 talent here, but it is clearly not going to happen for him this year now. Consider cutting him in mixed leagues for a healthier option now. Concussions can just be so unpredictable and Church has had two real serious ones in a span of months.
SP Jeff Suppan, MIL
Supe's struggles have had him on the down list for weeks, if not months, but now a sore elbow and a trade for C.C. Sabathia makes him the odd man out of the Brewers' rotation. Suppan can prove healthy and effective again come August, but the contending Brewers won't be apt to rush him back right now. Suppan can be cut in all mixed leagues without DL spots, because his poor numbers will make him readily available if and when he can pitch again.
SP Todd Wellemeyer, STL
Yours truly has waited for months for Wellemeyer's string of good fortune to run out. It looks like it has finally come. He has struggled with his health since June 13 and he has been real hittable in his past two starts. He entered the season as a middle reliever forced into the rotation and might finish as a struggling starter forced back into middle relief. Despite his seven victories and sub-4.00 ERA, he is not a pitcher we would trust in most mixed leagues right now. Sell high if anyone is buying.
SP Luke Hochevar, KC
Hochevar remains a long-term talent, but he is proving far less than a future star of late. While one No. 1 overall pick dominates his way to a call-up in August -- David Price from 2007 -- the No. 1 overall pick in 2006 might be pitching his way back to Triple-A by August ... if the Royals had anyone as a viable replacement. Hochevar doesn't figure to get run support consistently from the Royals and the way he is pitching, he will need more of it more often than not. Don't trust him outside of AL-only leagues right now.

Some more potential 'Goodbye Guys' we couldn't fit in: SP Erik Bedard, SEA; SP Max Scherzer, ARI; OF Elijah Dukes, WAS; OF Andruw Jones, LAD; SP Brad Penny, LAD; SP Tom Gorzelanny, PIT; SP Sean Gallagher, CHC; SP Micah Owings, ARI; RP Kevin Gregg, FLA; RP Trevor Hoffman, SD; SP Darrell Rasner, NYY; 1B Todd Helton, COL; SP Carlos Silva, SEA; SP Jarrod Washburn, SEA; SP Brett Myers, PHI.

Stock advisor

Patrick Hardy, Hyde Park, N.Y.: With guys like J.J. Hardy and Bobby Crosby on the wavier wire is it worth it to hang on to Edgar Renteria?

Emack: Well Crosby is back on the DL, but Hardy is a must-have in all leagues right now. Drop Renteria for Hardy at this point. Hardy is just too hot. He is much better than he showed in the second half of last year and the first couple of months this year.

M. Scalak: Straight up in a 12-man Head-to-Head league: Ryan Howard or Grady Sizemore?

Emack: If your league penalizes strikeouts, go with Sizemore. If not, Howard's power and run production potential make him a clear winner.

You can e-mail Emack your Fantasy Baseball Stockwatch questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Stockwatch in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens still trade candidate
Jair Jurrjens, SP, ATL
11:57 AM
News: CBSSports.com senior writer Danny Knobler reports sources said the Braves could try and trade SP Jair Jurrjens if he proves healthy in spring training. The Braves tried to trade Jurrjens this winter, but they couldn't find a taker because potential trade partners weren't convinced Jurrjens was healthy or could stay healthy. Jurrjens missed the end of the 2011 season with a knee injury and has made just 43 starts the last two seasons.
Analysis: When Jurrjens is healthy, he is one of the best pitchers in the majors. His 1.87 ERA in the first half last season was second to only Jered Weaver among major-league starters. Jurrjens has won 13-plus games in three of the last four seasons. So why would the Braves want to trade him? Well, Jurrjens is a free agent after the 2013 season and it appears Atlanta is ready to clear some rotation space for the likes of Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens with Jurrjens this spring. There appears to be a chance he might not finish the spring with Atlanta, which could mean Jurrjens slides down draft boards in NL-only formats that lose players who are traded to the AL. In mixed leagues, Jurrjens is still a decent mid-round Fantasy pick.

A.J. Burnett
Angels, Indians interested in Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
11:40 AM
News: FOXSports.com reports sources indicate the Angels are interested in Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, whose name has been heavily mentioned in trade rumors with the Pirates. However, the Angels are on Burnett's no-trade list and he wants to stay east. Pittsburgh is still considered the heavy favorite to potentially land Burnett. CBSSports.com baseball insider Jon Heyman said the Indians have also inquired about Burnett. The trade talks involve DH Travis Hafner, but Cleveland is unsure if it would make that trade. The Yankees also don't mind the free agent DH options available.
Analysis: Right now the hold up in the Pirates trade is how much money Pittsburgh will be willing to pay of Burnett's remaining salary over the next two years ($33 million) and the prospects the Pirates would send to the Yankees. Perhaps these rumors regarding the Angels and Indians might speed up the process, but other sources have said the Yankees would keep Burnett if the deal isn't right for them. Wherever Burnett pitches in 2012, he is going to be a late-round Fantasy pick coming off a turbulent 2011 campaign.

Coco Crisp
Crisp moving over for Cespedes?
Coco Crisp, CF, OAK
10:13 AM
News: Sources have told FOXSports.com that the Athletics intend to start newly signed Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes in center field right away, which would move Coco Crisp over to left field and Seth Smith to DH. Cespedes is already 26 and has faced upper-level competition in Cuba, but some scouts think he could use some time in the minors to adjust to the U.S. game.
Analysis: None of these reports are coming directly from the Athletics, so you should consider them nothing more than speculation at this point. Still, speculation is better than nothing, and if Cespedes is in fact going to be on the opening day roster, then he might even be worth drafting in the middle rounds, given his upside. As for Crisp, moving to left field wouldn't have any real impact on his Fantasy value. The Athletics outfield is even more crowded with the Cespedes signing, but the team seems to consider Crisp a mainstay at the top of the lineup. Given his base-stealing ability and doubles pop, he's a worthy fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Ryan Braun
Braun will know fate by Feb. 24
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
10:03 AM
News: Monday came and went without a ruling on Brewers OF Ryan Braun's pending 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It was the 25th day since the three-man panel heard Braun's appeal. According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the panel was supposed to “make all reasonable efforts” to deliver a verdict within that period of time, but chairman Shyam Das was given an extension. A decision is expected before Braun reports to spring training on Feb. 24, but the exact date is unknown since the process is intended to be confidential.
Analysis: The panel's need for a lengthy deliberation is theoretically a good sign, but then again, since the process is usually confidential, we don't know how common such extensions are. Braun's case is said to be unique, but it might not make much of a difference to the panel. If you're drafting now, you should do so with the expectation that Braun will miss the first 50 games of the season, which could allow him to slip to the middle rounds in standard mixed leagues. If the appeal is upheld, though, he's suddenly back to being a first-rounder in Fantasy.

Mike Moustakas
Moustakas in great shape
Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC
12:48 PM
News: Royals manager Ned Yost had his contract option for the 2013 season picked up on Tuesday, but the Kansas City skipper seemed more interested in talking about his 2012 team. Yost was impressed with how many players have shown up for spring training early and is really blown away by the fitness level of a few of his players. "Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas -- I'm extremely proud of both of those guys," Yost told reporters. "They could be in the best shape they've been in their careers. Billy looks great, and I didn't even hardly recognize Moose he looks so good."
Analysis: While the fitness level doesn't necessarily mean a player will have success, it really can't hurt either. To hear Yost rave about Moustakas should get the attention of Fantasy owners. Moustakas, who is one of the Royals' top prospects, struggled when he first arrived in the majors last season. However, he seemed to have figured it out by season's end. Moustakas hit .352 with four homers and 12 RBI in his final 22 games last season. He is definitely one of the more intriguing Fantasy sleepers heading into 2012 and this latest report just adds to his appeal on Draft Day.

Jake Westbrook
Westbrook sheds 25 pounds
Jake Westbrook, SP, STL
2:11 PM
News: The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports Cardinals SP Jake Westbrook has shown up for spring training 25 pounds lighter than he was last season.
Analysis: This is the time of year where everyone seems to come to camp in better shape than they left last season. Hopefully for Westbrook it makes a difference in his game. He did go 12-9 in 2011, but he posted a 4.66 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 33 starts. Westbrook can chew up innings, but he won't post impressive ERA, WHIP or strikeout total. Leave him for NL-only Fantasy formats.

Jhoulys Chacin
Chacin fires back at GM
Jhoulys Chacin, SP, COL
12:07 PM
News: The Denver Post reports Rockies SP Jhoulys Chacin responded to comments made by GM Dan O'Dowd, who expressed concern recently about Chacin's offseason conditioning. "I came to Arizona this past Monday. I have not stopped training during the winter, both in my country and here," Chacin told Venezuelan newspaper Meridiano. "I have always done the best job I could all throughout these past few months. I don't know where these comments came from. I believe they're the result of what other people have told him, instead of his own personal evaluation. I am looking forward to meeting O'Dowd personally, and I am confident that he will have a different conclusion after a firsthand evaluation." O'Dowd made his comments after seeing Chacin at the team's Fanfest in January. "He looked OK. It wasn't as bad as I anticipated," O'Dowd said. "It's still not what it should be."
Analysis: O'Dowd believes Chacin needs to lose weight because the excess pounds affect the balance in his delivery and cause his fastball command to suffer. Chacin spent much of the winter working out in his native Venezuela after working out in Tucson previously. On Feb. 9, Chacin reportedly weighed 226 pounds but anticipates being close to the 218 pounds he was last spring when he reports to spring training on Feb. 19. Chacin went 8-7 with a 3.16 ERA in 18 pre-All Star break starts last year and went 3-7 with a 4.31 ERA in 13 starts after the break. Chacin struggled with walks in the second half and was much more hittable down the stretch than he was early in the season. This situation is clearly not the way Fantasy owners want to see Chacin kick off the 2012 season, but perhaps this will provide him with the motivation he needs to reach elite status. Look to Chacin as a mid-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Kyle Seager
Seager gets work at first base
Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA
1:25 PM
News: The Seattle Times reports Mariners 3B Kyle Seager took grounders at first base Tuesday. Manager Eric Wedge said it was because of pitcher fielding drills Seager was at first base.
Analysis: It's interesting to see Seager working at another position in camp with Wedge calling him the front-runner for the third-base job. However, it appears clear that Seager was just needed as an extra body during fielding drills. Justin Smoak is still the team's first baseman and Mike Carp is his expected backup. Carlos Guillen can also play first base, so we can't look too much into Seager taking grounders at first. His main focus should be winning the 3B job over the likes of Alex Liddi and Chone Figgins. Consider Seager nothing more than a late-round, low-end Fantasy corner infielder on Draft Day. He does have some sleeper potential, but don't reach for him in drafts.

Travis Hafner
Hafner on Yankees radar?
Travis Hafner, DH, CLE
1:19 PM
News: CBSSports.com baseball insider Jon Heyman reports the Indians have inquired about Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, who has been heavily involved in trade rumors. The talks with the Indians revolve around a Burnett for DH Travis Hafner deal. However, Cleveland is unsure if it would make that trade, and the Yankees also appear content with the free agent DH options available.
Analysis: This trade rumor is definitely interesting because a trade to the Yankees would immediately elevate Hafner's Fantasy appeal. He would end up going to a hitter's park and be inserted into one of the best lineups in baseball. That means a ton of chances to fill the stat sheet. However, it doesn't appear this deal is imminent, so Fantasy owners shouldn't get their hopes up. It's best to view Hafner as a low-end, injury-risk Fantasy option for the late rounds of deep formats on Draft Day. Hafner continues to post poor home run totals and hasn't played more than 100 games in three of his last four seasons.

Kosuke Fukudome
Fukudome lands on South Side
Kosuke Fukudome, RF, CLE
11:46 AM
News: Kosuke Fukudome is headed back to the Windy City, but this time he is going to call the South Side home. Fukudome agreed to a one-year, $1 million contract with the White Sox on Tuesday. The deal also included a club option for the 2013 season. "Kosuke adds to our outfield depth and gives Robin (Ventura) another left-handed bat to mix into the lineup based on matchups," assistant general manager Rick Hahn said in a statement. "He can play center field and right and provides flexibility to our roster."
Analysis: Fukudome played for the Cubs from 2008 to the trade deadline last season when he was shipped to Cleveland. He had his most disappointing campaign in the majors in 2011, which is why he probably stayed on the free-agent market longer than expected. The White Sox are expected to open 2012 with an outfield alignment of Alex Rios in center, Dayan Viciedo in right field and Alejandro De Aza in left field. Brent Lillibridge is considered a backup at all three outfield positions and now Fukudome joins the mix as another outfield body. However, since he likely won't begin the season as a starter, then Fukudome can be left undrafted in most Fantasy formats. Consider him at best an AL-only Fantasy reserve.

 
 
 
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