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Scott White

Sliders: Ross is one flyin' Marlin

By | Fantasy Writer


You didn't even see it coming, did you?

Cody Ross, all 5-foot-9 of him, had 15 RBI in a four-game series at Colorado over the weekend, batting .600 (12-for-20) with four doubles, two homers and six runs. Those home runs and RBI might not mean much to you if they didn't give him 15 and 47 for the season, putting him on pace for 27 and 87 in only 405 at-bats.

Got your attention, didn't I?

Of course, you might just write it off as a hot streak. You might say the pint-sized semi-slugger simply capitalized on the thin air of the Rocky Mountains, that this one weekend inflated his numbers to such an extreme he can't possibly sustain them over the course of a season.

Yes, you might say that if you didn't have me here to remind you of last year.

Sliders These guys' recent performances signify more than a hot or cold streak. Their Fantasy appeal has actually "slid" either up or down.

Cody Ross, OF, Marlins

Cody Ross had himself quite a weekend in Colorado. (US Presswire)  
Cody Ross had himself quite a weekend in Colorado. (US Presswire)  
Let's play a little game. It's not much fun, really -- it involves the strict recollection of statistics -- but humor me for a moment. Guess who led all of baseball in slugging percentage last year, provided he had a minimum of, say, 150 at-bats?

Ah-ha! You think you have me. I altered the normal rules of qualification, so you know it has to be someone who came up late in the year and made an immediate splash, someone like Rick Ankiel.

But it's not Ankiel -- not even close.

OK, well maybe someone more obvious who follows the same principle, someone like Ryan Braun.

Wrong again.

Now you have to scratch your head, maybe even accuse me of tricking you, sidetracking you from the most obvious answer: Alex Rodriguez, of course.

Makes sense. Perhaps you remember A-Rod's season from last year, one where he put up the kind of numbers for which Baseball-Reference.com was invented -- the kind some kid 20 years from now will put off his homework to revisit over and over again, staring at that stat line in wide-eyed amazement.

But if you guessed A-Rod, you'd be wrong.

Because Ross, by that one statistical measure in that limited number of at-bats, had a season even better. The final tally: Ross .653, A-Rod .645.

And then came this weekend -- lightning striking twice, if you will, which suggests it's something other than lightning. Maybe truth? Hey, if you gave me last year's or this first half's tally by itself and called it a fluke, I would say, "Yeah, that makes sense," and go back to thinking up alternative uses for an egg slicer.

I'm up to six.

But two similar performances in back-to-back seasons -- you call that a fluke? I don't buy it.

And now Ross has the confidence of his manager and a full-time job. So like I did with Justin Duchscherer, I'll double slide Ross this season, taking my recommendation from June 3 one step further.

Pick him up. All leagues.

J.J. Hardy, SS, Brewers

Like with most players, two schools of thought existed on Hardy entering the season. One called his 26-homer season last year a fluke, the product of an unexpectedly hot start for a slick-fielding shortstop with the power to hit 12-15 home runs at best. The other called it legitimate, the natural development for an underrated prospect who finished the season almost as strong as he started it.

I counted myself among the latter group, and until last week, I appeared wrong.

But something got into the brew.

If you know someone who benched Hardy last week, chances are you don't anymore. We're talking the formation of suicidal tendencies with this kind of missed payoff.

Six homers. Six homers -- twice his season total. He'll never do that again, of course, but the power surge only put him on pace for 22 home runs. It served mostly to make up for lost time, to get him on pace rather than put him ahead of pace. Expect his home runs to level off during the second half, making him a worthy low-end starter in mixed leagues.

Now if someone could just go poke Prince Fielder. That sleeping giant needs to wake up already.

Jonathan Sanchez, SP, Giants

I've bounced back and forth on Sanchez all season, originally having him slide up in value before designating him a change-up in mid-May.

Well, I've gotten back on board.

The timing might seem odd considering he lasted only five innings in his last start, but the 25-year-old left-hander has clearly turned the corner since that one fateful week I called him a change-up, pitching seven innings or more in five of his last seven starts and six innings or more in eight of his last 10. By comparison, he lasted six innings only twice in his first eight starts.

But more than anything else with him, I keep coming back to the strikeouts. Going into Monday, he was one of only five pitchers who had more strikeouts than innings pitched with a minimum of 100 innings. The others? Tim Lincecum, Edinson Volquez, C.C. Sabathia and Chad Billingsley.

Pretty good company, right?

Yes, his WHIP looks a little high, and his walks still get him in trouble, but he hasn't had more than three in his last 10 starts. He is this year what Oliver Perez was last year and, therefore, deserves to start more often than not in mixed leagues.

Randy Wolf, SP, Padres

And then there's those times strikeouts don't mean anything.

Such is the case with Wolf, who has five nine-strikeout games to his credit this season and averages 8.2 Ks per nine innings.

And yet I don't want to use him. I just can't trust him. His 4.59 ERA and 1.42 WHIP don't look disastrous, but too many of his starts do. In his eight worst (of 10 total), he's combined for a 9.00 ERA, giving him five weeks of negative scoring in standard Head-to-Head leagues.

Yes, in about one-third of this season's scoring periods, Curt Schilling would have done more for your Fantasy team than Wolf.

Whenever you start the left-hander, you start him for the strikeouts and cross your fingers on every other statistic. And strikeouts alone don't cut it in mixed leagues.

Jerry Hairston, SS, Reds

How does a .340 hitter at the second-weakest position in Fantasy go unnoticed?

Starting in only 36 percent of leagues, Hairston has -- which you could argue makes sense for a 32-year-old career disappointment, but then again, a fluke can only go unchecked for so long.

The speedster, who failed as a leadoff man in Baltimore so many years ago, took over the starting shortstop gig after both Alex Gonzalez and Jeff Keppinger succumbed to injury. He then suffered an injury of his own, breaking his thumb in early June.

So much for that hot streak, I thought. Yeah, that stint on the DL ought to straighten him out.

But he's hit even better since his return. In 11 games back hitting leadoff, he's batted .364 (16-for-44), displaying as much speed as he ever has with 15 stolen bases in only 169 at-bats.

I don't know that it'll last -- I really don't -- but I have a hard time imagining Hairston's batting average sinking below .280 anytime soon. So he continues to hit well and has the potential to steal 30-40 bases, and you don't want to start him? Really?

Mind if I take him off your hands?

Hanging Sliders These guys look like Sliders, but not so fast! Their recent performances might cause you to misinterpret their Fantasy appeal.

Mark DeRosa, 2B, Cubs

You know how I called Hardy's hot hitting legitimate because it put him on pace to match last season's power numbers?

Well, I could apply the converse argument to DeRosa, who had a similar power surge last week, belting three home runs to put him on pace for 20.

See, DeRosa doesn't hit 20 home runs. He barely hits 10. So the fact he has 11 now means a serious course correction awaits in the not-too-distant future.

Unless at age 33, he's discovered some kind of ancient voodoo way to improve his bat speed, don't expect DeRosa to hit more than a handful of home runs the rest of the season. He remains a decent stopgap because he qualifies at so many positions, but not someone to invest too much faith in.

Change-up Every week, I make terrible errors in judgment. It happens to us all, and if it didn't, Fantasy wouldn't be a game worth playing. Fortunately, I permit myself the opportunity to correct one of my mistakes by throwing a change-up.

Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Astros

About this time last week, I had nothing but good to say about Rodriguez. After owning 2.94 ERA at home and a 6.37 mark on the road last year, he seemingly normalized his home-road splits, becoming a consistent and all-around effective pitcher.

But then the unexpected happened over the next seven days. He stunk both on the road and at home.

I can't begin to explain how a pitcher goes from posting a 1.13 ERA in eight innings against the Rangers one day to a 9.00 ERA in five innings against the Dodgers the next, but doing so makes Rodriguez the antithesis of predictable and my praise of him a bunch of hooey.

Granted, I only said he deserves a flier in all leagues -- and his strikeout rate still suggests he does -- but I can't trust him enough to start him either at home or on the road right now. And in one league, I actually found myself releasing him. Don't hesitate to do the same if you have a need elsewhere.

You can e-mail Scott your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Sliders in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.We'll answer as many as we can.

 
 
 
Player News
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Dice-K throwing off mound
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, BOS
11:52 AM
News: The Boston Globe reports while Red Sox pitchers and catchers don't officially have to report until Sunday, some players have arrived early, including SP Daisuke Matsuzaka. The paper noted that Matsuzaka, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery in June, was throwing off a mound with manager Bobby Valentine watching.
Analysis: Clearly, the fact Dice-K is already throwing off a mound is good news. However, we still have to temper expectations. It usually takes pitchers 12-18 months to recover from Tommy John surgery, so we aren't expecting to see Dice-K in a major-league game until mid-summer. We will continue to update his progress as the news warrants, but Dice-K is merely a draft-and-stash option in the deepest of Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

David Ortiz
Ortiz settles before hearing
David Ortiz, DH, BOS
11:11 AM
News: DH David Ortiz and the Red Sox came to terms on a one-year contract hours before the two sides were set to go to an arbitration hearing. Ortiz signed a one-year, $14.575 million contract.
Analysis: Now that Ortiz has this business out of the way he can get down to focusing on the baseball aspect of things. Ortiz hit .309 with 29 homers and 96 RBI in 2011. He is DH-eligible only in Fantasy, which hurts his appeal a bit. But Ortiz remains a viable early-to-mid-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day.

Chris Snyder
Snyder fully recovered from surgery
Chris Snyder, C, HOU
12:27 PM
News: The Houston Chronicle reports Astros catcher Chris Snyder said he is fully recovered from the back surgery he had in June.
Analysis: A lot of folks feel Snyder will make the Astros roster out of camp, but he still needs to prove he is past his back problem, which robbed him of most of the 2011 season with Pittsburgh. Manager Brad Mills has already said Jason Castro is the team's starting catcher, but he is recovering from foot surgery and isn't expected to be ready for spring games until the second week of the exhibition schedule. In the meantime, Snyder will be battling Humberto Quintero for the backup role. Snyder has decent pop for a catcher, but his strength is defense. Snyder is more of an NL-only Fantasy option.

Ian Desmond
Nats convinced Desmond will re-emerge
Ian Desmond, SS, WAS
11:41 AM
News: CSN Washington reports the Nationals are convinced shortstop Ian Desmond is in for a bounce-back season in 2012 because of two trends they spotted in 2011. The first is that Desmond made significant strides at the plate in the second half of last season. After hitting .223 with a .264 OBP and .308 slugging percentage before the All-Star break, Desmond hit .289 with a .338 OBP and .417 slugging percentage down the stretch. He really thrived when manager Davey Johnson made him the leadoff hitter, which is a position he is expected to keep heading into the spring. The second trend is that Desmond's defense improved as the season progressed. He committed seven errors in his first 20 games and just 16 over his final 134.
Analysis: A lot of folks were excited about Desmond's 2011 outlook after he played well in his first two MLB stints in 2009 and 2010. Unfortunately, Desmond took a step back last year and will plummet down Fantasy draft boards because of it. Clearly, there is potential with Desmond. But don't reach for him on Draft Day. Let him fall to the late rounds in mixed leagues and hope that you grab a bounce-back candidate.

Phil Hughes
Hughes appears ready to compete
Phil Hughes, SP, NYY
11:26 AM
News: Newsday reports Yankees SP Phil Hughes, who looks noticeably slimmer and more muscular, said he weighs about 240 pounds. He added that in the offseason he changed his "body composition."
Analysis: The early word from Yankees camp is that Hughes is in shape and ready to compete for a spot in the rotation. Although, he is on the outside looking in if the Yankees don't trade A.J. Burnett. Though, if Hughes proves to be more valuable in the rotation than the bullpen, then the Yankees might have to reconsider his role in 2012. Let's see how Hughes does this spring training before making a final evaluation about his 2012 outlook, but clearly him being in shape is a good start. Hughes could be a viable Fantasy option again if he returns to the 18-8 pitcher he was in 2010.

Jon Garland
Garland gets shot with Indians
Jon Garland, SP, LAD
10:37 AM
News: The Indians signed SP Jon Garland to a minor-league deal on Monday. Garland, who last pitched for the Dodgers, was limited to only nine starts last season before having arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder in June.
Analysis: Garland will most likely compete with Kevin Slowey for the final spot in the Indians rotation, but he's a hittable pitcher who now may be working with less than his best stuff coming off shoulder surgery. Even if he's able to win a rotation spot, he won't be worth drafting outside of deeper AL-only leagues.

A.J. Burnett
Yanks, Pirates still talking Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
2/12/2012
News: The New York Daily News reports the Yankees and Pirates continued to talk Sunday about completing a trade for A.J. Burnett, but a baseball source said the sides are still "a good ways away" from agreeing on the final terms. The source added the Pirates are willing to pay $10 million of the remaining $33 million Burnett is owed over the next two seasons, but Pittsburgh has offered "two borderline prospects" in return. The Yankees could be willing to pay more of Burnett's remaining contract if they receive a top-tier prospect from Pittsburgh. A person familiar with the Yankees' thinking believes there is enough common ground that a deal could be completed in the coming days. However, ESPN.com reports their source said the Yankees aren't desperate to make a trade and the team would go to spring training with Burnett if a deal isn't completed.
Analysis: Leaving the Yankees usually has a negative impact on a player's Fantasy value, but in Burnett's case it might be the opposite, especially if he moves to the NL. He has struggled to handle the pressure of pitching in New York and a fresh start could be what he needs. Burnett had some of his best years in the majors pitching in the NL. Still, Burnett would be nothing more than a risky late-round Fantasy pick in mixed leagues.

Josh Johnson
JJ continues to feel no discomfort
Josh Johnson, SP, MIA
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Marlins SP Josh Johnson arrived to the team's spring training complex in Jupiter, Fla., on Feb. 9, more than a week ahead of the Marlins reporting date for pitchers and catchers. Johnson, who has been throwing off a mound near his home in Las Vegas, threw his first bullpen session of the year in Florida on Feb. 10. He felt no discomfort and expects to be ready for the first workouts on Feb. 22. He made only nine starts last year because of shoulder issues.
Analysis: Any encouraging news regarding JJ is welcomed. But Fantasy owners do have to be aware of the risk of drafting him. Of course his potential makes it worth it, but JJ has made it past 30 starts just once in his career. Look to Johnson as more of a No. 2 Fantasy SP on Draft Day, but clearly he has the potential to be your ace if he can stay healthy.

Hunter Pence
Pence likely to hit cleanup
Hunter Pence, RF, PHI
2/12/2012
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports Phillies manager Charlie Manuel has to find a cleanup hitter with Ryan Howard expected to miss the beginning of the season recovering from an Achilles injury, and he said his choice going into spring training is Hunter Pence.
Analysis: Pence either hit right in front of or right behind Howard after his acquisition from Houston last season and thrived in the Phillies lineup. He will miss Howard's lineup protection, but might only have to play a month without Howard. In the meantime, Pence should get plenty of RBI chances batting cleanup, and he will still have plenty of lineup protection without Howard. Look to Pence in the early rounds of Fantasy drafts.

Jason Vargas
Vargas expected to pitch in A's series
Jason Vargas, SP, SEA
2/12/2012
News: Mariners manager Eric Wedge hinted Sunday that ace Felix Hernandez and Jason Vargas are the leading candidates to start the team's first two games against the A's in Japan. "That's one of the reasons we're here early, to make sure we get Felix ready and we're probably looking at Vargas right now in regard to the first couple games," Wedge said, as reported by MLB.com. "It is a little odd, but that's OK. That's part of it. We're professionals here and we have to get multiple starters prepared for the regular season. It's not just about those two guys, it's about everybody else as well. We've got a lot of starting pitchers here in camp and we'll see how it plays out. I'm looking forward to the competition."
Analysis: Believe it or not, but Vargas is arguably the M's second-best pitcher heading into spring training. He has been a steady part of the M's rotation the last two seasons. He is 19-25 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 63 starts since the beginning of the 2010 campaign. However, he is not a dominant pitcher and has weak strikeout totals, so Vargas is nothing more than a low-end Fantasy SP on Draft Day.

 
 
 
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