By the Numbers: Welcome, Matt!
By Al Melchior | Special to CBSSports.com Follow AlFollow CBS Fantasy Baseball
Fantasy owners are flush with excitement over erstwhile Brewers prospect Matt LaPorta's move to the American League. Despite the fact that he may not play for Cleveland until rosters expand in September, he is already owned in 19 percent of CBSSports.com leagues. LaPorta also has the distinction of being the American League position player (excluding those who have been activated from the disabled list) who has been added to the most leagues this week.
With only 296 at-bats at Double-A Huntsville, it's hard to know exactly what kind of impact LaPorta will have when he reaches the majors, but one of the players blocking him in Milwaukee -- Ryan Braun -- provides a useful yardstick. It was just two years ago that Braun played half a season at Huntsville, and LaPorta was only about a year older than Braun was during their respective stints in the Southern League. Both registered Isolated Power averages a shade under .300 and both struck out at rate close to 20 percent. The only real differences between them were for stolen bases and walk rate. Braun held a 12-0 advantage for the former, and the latter was a plus in LaPorta's column. Drawing conclusions on fewer than 300 at-bats in Double-A definitely calls for an official Small Sample Alert, but having a shot to roster a slower but more selective version of Ryan Braun is a pretty appealing possibility.
More guys in demand
C.J. Wilson, RP, Texas
Week 15 Ownership: 57 percent
Week 16 Ownership: 69 percent
Rank in AL Most Added: 4th (tied)
The Skinny: There is one reason and one reason only that Wilson makes this week's Most Added list: his 22 saves. Wilson's strikeout ratio is mediocre for a closer and his walk and home run ratios are flat out horrible. That's why he will be no help at all for ERA (currently 4.58) and WHIP (1.42). The Rangers will keep running him out there, because only Frank Francisco is even remotely a challenger for the closer role. However, the Giants' Brian is really the better Wilson, as he will give you just as many saves but better stats in the other categories. The same is true for Salomon Torres, who is still available in 29 percent of our leagues.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | H/BIP | ERC |
| 2006 | Texas | 3.7 | 8.7 | 1.4 | 27% | 4.25 |
| 2007 | Texas | 4.4 | 8.3 | 0.5 | 27% | 3.01 |
| 2008 | Texas | 4.6 | 7.6 | 1.4 | 27% | 4.25 |
Ramon Hernandez, C, Baltimore
Week 15 Ownership: 55 percent
Week 16 Ownership: 65 percent
Rank in AL Most Added: 10th (tied)
The Skinny: Ah, catchers. You can't live with 'em, but you can't stop the ball from rolling to the screen without 'em. As with many catchers, trying to figure Hernandez out can be a frustration. Is he a 10 homer guy or a 20 homer guy? Is he a .250 hitter or a .275 hitter? On the surface, he looks closer to the .250 average and 10 homer guy this year, but his power and contact numbers suggest that a much higher average is in order. Believe it or not, the walk and whiff rates and the Isolated Power numbers you see below are about the same as those for All-Star snub A.J. Pierzynski (4%-12%-.143). If Hernandez were more fortunate and had Pierzynski's 32 percent H/BIP rate, perhaps Jason Varitek would be planning a fishing trip for next week. Hernandez's recent hot streak is not a fluke, but rather a correction for the ill-fated start he had to this season.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2006 | Baltimore | 8% | 16% | 0.204 | 29% | 5.7 |
| 2007 | Baltimore | 9% | 16% | 0.124 | 29% | 4.3 |
| 2008 | Baltimore | 6% | 13% | 0.137 | 26% | 3.7 |
Others drawing interest
| Rank | Player | Week 15 ownership | Week 16 ownership | Percentage change |
| 1 | Grant Balfour, RP, Tampa Bay | 19% | 53% | 34% |
| 2 | Masahide Kobayashi, RP, Cleveland | 9% | 35% | 26% |
| 3 | Clay Buchholz, SP, Boston | 44% | 64% | 20% |
| 4 | David Price, SP, Tampa Bay | 42% | 54% | 12% |
The guys dropping like flies
Jesse Litsch, SP, Toronto
Week 15 Ownership: 65 percent
Week 16 Ownership: 57 percent
Rank in AL Most Dropped: 6th
The Skinny: By Week 10, Litsch was playing ball in four out of five CBSSports.com leagues, but with one win recorded over the past five weeks, his owners have soured big time. It's hard to take a lack of contribution to wins with a pitcher that gives you mediocre strikeout and ERA numbers, but that's a pitcher's destiny when he gets no run support and then gives up a homer every seven innings. Litsch has the promise to be a better strikeout pitcher, but at 23, he needs time to grow into that potential. As of now, he doesn't have much to offer owners in mixed leagues.
Also, consider the figures below to be a warning to all Joe Saunders owners. Those 2008 skill stats are roughly the same as the ones belonging to your guy. If his 25 percent H/BIP ever reverts to a normal rate in the 28 to 30 percent range, you will be looking at a Litsch-like 4.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | H/BIP | ERC |
| 2006 | New Hampshire (Double-A) | 1.7 | 7.0 | 0.8 | N/A | N/A |
| 2007 | Toronto | 2.9 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 28% | 4.48 |
| 2008 | Toronto | 1.3 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 30% | 4.15 |
Others wearing roster repellant
| Rank | Player | Week 15 ownership | Week 16 ownership | Percentage change |
| 1 | Justin Masterson, SP, Boston | 61% | 36% | - 25% |
| 2 | Mike Aviles, SS, Kansas City | 56% | 38% | - 18% |
| 3 | Aaron Laffey, SP, Cleveland | 58% | 47% | - 11% |
| 3 | Darrell Rasner, SP, N.Y. Yankees | 34% | 23% | - 11% |
| 5 | Vicente Padilla, SP, Texas | 80% | 70% | - 10% |
| |
| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
