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Eric Mack

Week 17 Fantasy Stockwatch

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Every Monday we'll take a look at the Fantasy Baseball gainers and decliners in our Fantasy Stockwatch.

This week's potential 'Buy Guys'

OF Adam Lind, TOR
We are pretty sure he is not high on your priority list right now, but the Blue Jays' disappointing season has given them the chance to let hitters like Lind play full time. It has done him wonders. The player we considered the next Aubrey Huff (is that a good thing? sometimes) is hitting .367 in July with 15 RBI and nine runs in 49 at-bats. Notably, he is hitting a respectable .261 against left-handed pitching, including a homer. Consider him a sleeper to surprise in the second half, especially in AL-only leagues. He is the type of minor league slugger who just finally figures it out in the major leagues.
OF Alex Rios, TOR
OK, we are buying low on some struggling Blue Jays this week. If you follow Fantasy Baseball content on this website in general and this writer in particular, you know we like buying into players who are entering their prime at age 27. Rios was our No. 1 in that category coming into the season only to fall flat on his face in the season's first two months. But, have faith. Rios quietly hit .320 in June and is hitting .319 in July with eight steals. The player we billed as a .300-30-100-100-30 candidate is on pace for just .284-8-70-86, but he will set a career high in steals (on pace for 40) and can have a huge second half. Remember his power display at last year's Home Run Derby? Yeah, the "next Dave Winfield" has some serious untapped power potential you could benefit from in the second haf.
SP Joe Blanton, PHI
It can be hard to expect much from a struggling starting pitcher entering a second half where he will work have his games in one of the bandboxiest of bandboxes in Philly, but Blanton is a buy candidate with his trade. Sure, Blanton is hittable, but he can eat innings and the Phillies' streaky but still generally monsterous offense makes him a candidate to be a big winner in the second half. Heck, the Phillies make Jamie Moyer a winner every year. Moyer can't hold Blanton's jock in this writer's book. Pitchers on top contenders win. That's enough for anyone in most Fantasy leagues.
RP Jim Johnson, BAL
You probably don't pay too much attention to mediocre pitching prospects who are converted to middle relievers on non-contending clubs, which is why we feel the need to introduce you to Mr. Johnson. He has gone from so-so starting prospect to long reliever to middle reliever to setup man with outstanding results this season, quietly becoming the closer-to-be on a team that made former situational lefty George Sherrill a Fantasy find and legit trade-deadline bait. When, not if, Sherrill is dealt, Johnson will close and have value in any league where you need a sleeper to close in the season's final two months. Johnson, though, figures to keep the job only until next spring, when Chris Ray figures to return from Tommy John surgery.
SS Troy Tulowitzki, COL
Eight-one games can win the NL West. Remember when 'Tulo was the next big thing and the Rockies we sweeping their way to the World Series? Hopefully, you haven't forgotten. Now, you might be bitter by what 'Tulo did in the first half -- or didn't do for that matter -- but this second half is wide open for some serious payback. The Rockies are getting healthy and he figures to make the Rockies, trailing by just six games in the division, a threat again. He is far closer to the star you saw down the stretch last year than he is the scrub he showed the early months this season.

Some more 'Buy Guys' we couldn't fit in: SP Shaun Marcum, TOR; SP Francisco Liriano, MIN; RP Ryan Franklin, STL; RP Carlos Marmol, CHC; SP Josh Johnson, FLA; SP Anibal Sanchez, FLA; RP Tony Pena, ARI; SP Chris Volstad, FLA; 2B Eugenio Velez, SF; OF Austin Kearns, CIN; SP Gio Gonzalez, OAK; 1B Chris Davis, TEX; 3B Hank Blalock, TEX; SS Bobby Crosby, OAK; SP Chris Carpenter, STL.

This week's potential 'Goodbye Guys'

RP Billy Wagner, NYM
Wagner might be fine, but if you know anything about sore shoulders, they don't suddenly heal. It is a long process. The worst part about minor shoulder strains is you can feel fine for the most part, but then they don't quite give you the extra bit you're used to going to on a moments notice. A Wagner with a 90 mph fastball is the equivalent of being Josh Hamilton's 71-year-old guest batting practice pitcher for the Home Run Derby -- meat. Wagner has made a career of blowing people away with hard stuff, so it won't be all that easy to try to trick people if he's not able to goose it back up to 96-plus.
2B Rickie Weeks, MIL
We have to admit we adore Weeks' physical tools and five-category potential, but when push comes to shove in a pennant race, how much can they trust a free-swinging .216-hitter who is not even average defensively? The Brewers made a great trade adding the 3-0 CC Sabathia to their pitching staff, but that helps make the Brewers a team that relies on pitching and defense to win. Weeks doesn't fit into the defense part of that equation. Now, neither does recently acquired Ray Durham, but it signals the Brewers are prepared to impede the progress of Weeks to win now. Weeks will sit at least a few games a week, which makes him a much tougher guy to start in weekly Head-to-Head points leagues.
RP Jason Isringhausen, STL
A repeat Goodbye Guy. The Cardinals won't be going away just because the Cubs added Rich Harden and the Brewers brought in Sabathia, but Izzy should go bye bye in Fantasy leagues. Izzy has been terrible and Ryan Franklin has proven to be more than capable of retaining the closer's role the rest of the season. Somehow, the closer Franklin is owned in just 48 percent of CBSSports.com's leagues, while the middle reliever Isringhausen has only dropped to 46 percent after Sunday's debacle. It is time to consider Izzy an ex-closer and cut him outside of deeper NL-only formats.
C Jorge Posada, NYY
Too obvious here. Posada is toast. Remember what we said above about shoulder issues? You can play with them, but they don't let you be at your best. We placed Posada here to teach you a little hard lesson about catchers. They hit like pitchers and always tend to get drafted too early every spring. Catchers have to manage pitchers, running games, scouting reports and just about everything except get coffee for the manager. They have less time to focus on what makes a Fantasy player tick -- hitting. When you buy a catcher on Draft Day, you are buying a volatile stock. If you buying a 36-year-old catcher coming off a career year and a spiffy long-term deal, you are buying a stock certain to depreciate.
1B/OF Matt LaPorta, CLE
A trade to Cleveland was great news for LaPorta's Fantasy owners, because he now won't have to contend with the presence of Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and Corey Hart blocking him at first, left and right field. In his way now -- only sort of, like a fence in the way of a Hamilton Home Run Derby shot (second reference to Hamilton, how old is that breakout? 27.) -- are Ryan Garko, Franklin Gutierrez, Shin-Soo Choo and Ben Francisco. Not exactly the likes of Fielder, Braun and Hart. The bad news is Team USA dragging the likes of LaPorta, Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson away for a month. Now, it can make them American heroes and big-time September guys, but it is hard to wait another six weeks on call-ups at this point, especially if you are uncertain you will even care about anything but your Fantasy Football teams come Labor Day.

You can e-mail us your Fantasy Baseball Stockwatch questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Stockwatch in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Roy Oswalt
Oswalt waiting to sign with Texas?
Roy Oswalt, SP, PHI
5:11 PM
News: The Cincinnati Enquirer reports Reds GM Walt Jocketty said he hasn't had contact with Roy Oswalt's agents in the last week, and Jocketty offered up his own opinion on the Oswalt sweepstakes. “I think he’s waiting for Texas to clear money,” Jocketty said.
Analysis: It's interesting to hear Jocketty say Oswalt wants to sign with Texas. At least it's a legit reason why the veteran right-hander hasn't signed with a team yet, despite being linked to the Reds and Cardinals. Oswalt is likely going to sign somewhere before the start of the 2012 season and should be in a rotation. Consider Oswalt more of a mid-to-late-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day. Don't forget about his chronic back problems.

Johan Santana
Santana looks 'great' playing catch
Johan Santana, SP, NYM
2:25 PM
News: The Wall Street Journal reports Mets SP Johan Santana (shoulder) played catch from 175 feet Monday. Manager Terry Collins said Santana looked "great" and he hopes the left-hander will throw off a mound by the end of the week.
Analysis: Collins' assessment of Santana sounds like cautious optimism. After all it was just catch. Santana has bigger hurdles to clear in hopes of pitching for the first time since the 2010 season. Santana is coming off a serious shoulder injury and who knows if he can return to the dominant arm he once was. Fantasy owners should bear in mind that Chien-Ming Wang, who underwent the same procedure, needed two years to make it back to the majors, so Santana could wind up providing far fewer than 25 starts -- which is the Mets' goal for the lefty this season. Because of the playing time risk, he is a late-round option in mixed leagues at best.

Ryan Braun
Braun ruling coming soon?
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
1:51 PM
News: The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports there is no indication that a ruling will be announced Monday regarding Ryan Braun's appeal of a 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It appears the recommended guideline for a ruling will be extended.
Analysis: The entire baseball world want this issue to be put to bed, but it seems we might have to wait a little longer for a ruling. The Brewers remain upbeat about Braun's situation, but only time will tell what happens. If Braun avoids a suspension, then he remains a first-round Fantasy pick. If he is suspended 50 games, then he is going to tumble down draft boards a bit, but Braun would still be an early-round Fantasy selection based on potential once he becomes active.

Seth Smith
Cespedes to bump Smith?
Seth Smith, RF, OAK
1:37 PM
News: Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes and the Oakland Athletics have agreed to a $36 million, four-year contract. Agent Adam Katz confirmed Monday the sides had reached agreement, with details still to be finalized. Cespedes' arrival means the A's could eventually bump Seth Smith to designated hitter.
Analysis: We will have to wait and see what happens when Cespedes finally arrives at A's camp, but the speculation is that the A's outfield alignment will eventually be Josh Reddick in right field, Coco Crisp in center field and Cespedes in left, which is where Smith is currently penciled in as the starter. But the A's could use a rotation at DH, which would still allow Smith to see regular at-bats, if Cespedes doesn't have to begin the year in the minors, which remains an option as well. Smith struggles against left-handed pitchers, so he might still be in a platoon situation like he was with the Rockies. Smith remains more of a late-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Mike Napoli
Napoli's ankle still an issue
Mike Napoli, C, TEX
12:48 PM
News: ESPN.com reports Rangers catcher Mike Napoli said his injured left ankle is progressing, but he is still not 100 percent. Napoli turned his ankle in the World Series against the Cardinals last year. "I think I’m close," Napoli said. "I’m not really going to know until I get into the wear and tear of spring training and catching all the time. But I've been feeling good and getting better day by day." Napoli said he has been running on the ankle, and he is also hitting and throwing without pain. However, he is still concerned about how it will hold up with the constant squatting and baseball activity. "But I'm trying not to do that all the time so I'm not depending on that," Napoli said. "I'm working on getting my little muscles stronger."
Analysis: The Dallas Morning News reports GM Jon Daniels said exams by team physician Keith Meister said Napoli's ankle shows no structural damage, but Napoli is still experiencing soreness. "The fact he's still feeling it a few months later speaks to what he went through to play the rest of Game 6 and go back out for Game 7," Daniels said. "It was about as bad as it looked to the rest of us." You have to wonder if Napoli can't shake this injury if it will play into how much time he gets behind the plate. Nonetheless, if Napoli catches less that just means he will likely see more PT at DH and first base. The Rangers aren't going to take his bat out of the lineup. Napoli remains a top 5 Fantasy catcher on Draft Day.

Emilio Bonifacio
Bonifacio was always the choice in CF
Emilio Bonifacio, SS, MIA
5:28 PM
News: The news broke Monday that OF Yoenis Cespedes agreed to a four-year contract with the A's, turning down the Marlins offer. Cespedes signing with the A's means Emilio Bonifacio will start in center field for Miami. However, manager Ozzie Guillen said that was going to be the case all along. "Bonifacio would've have been my center fielder no matter if Cespedes was here," Guillen told 790 AM in Miami. "If Cespedes (came) to the Marlins, he would have had to make the ballclub."
Analysis: Finally, Guillen steps up in front of this situation and stands behind Bonifacio as an everyday player. He absolutely deserved it after the season he put together in 2011. The 26-year-old took a big step forward last year as both a hitter and a base-stealer and is a viable starter in mixed Fantasy leagues at either shortstop or third base. He's worth targeting with a middle-round pick on Draft Day.

Scott Rolen
Rolen 'swinging bat really well'
Scott Rolen, 3B, CIN
5:21 PM
News: The Cincinnati Enquirer reports Reds GM Walt Jocketty said 3B Scott Rolen (shoulder) should be full-go for the start of spring training. “I talked to his offseason trainer a 10 days or two weeks ago. He said Scott is 100 percent and swinging the bat really well," Jocketty said.
Analysis: Rolen had shoulder surgery in August and his recovery seems to be going well. While Jocketty expects Rolen to have a productive season, we have to look at the facts. He will be 37 years old in 2012 and hasn't played more than 133 games the last five seasons. Rolen will sit at times in 2012, whether it is by design or because of injury. He did hit 20 homers in 2010, but Fantasy owners can't bank on that come Draft Day. Rolen is at best a late-round, injury-risk Fantasy option.

Aroldis Chapman
Chapman 'healthy and feels good'
Aroldis Chapman, RP, CIN
5:18 PM
News: The Cincinnati Enquirer reports Reds GM Walt Jocketty said pitcher Aroldis Chapman is at the team's spring complex in Arizona and throwing. “He’s healthy and feels good,” Jocketty said.
Analysis: The plan is for the Reds to stretch out Chapman as a starter this spring. He isn't guaranteed a starting spot, but the Reds want to see if he can bring his electric stuff to the rotation. If Chapman can stretch out and utilize his 100 mph in the rotation, then he could end up as a very good Fantasy option. Chapman will be a player Fantasy owners will want to keep tabs on this spring. He has breakout appeal written all over him.

Ryan Kalish
Kalish not cleared to swing bat
Ryan Kalish, CF, BOS
4:41 PM
News: The Boston Globe reports Red Sox OF Ryan Kalish has arrived at the team's spring training complex in Fort Myers, Fla., and is working out. However, he hasn't been cleared to swing a bat as he recovers from shoulder surgery.
Analysis: Kalish isn't expected to join the MLB roster until later this summer, so this news isn't shocking. Kalish is still holding out hope to be ready by opening day, but he isn't counting on it. It's disappointing he has to deal with this injury since the Red Sox have an opening in right field, which Kalish would be competing for had he avoided surgery. Kalish could very well emerge as an everyday player once he is healthy, but consider Kalish more of a draft-and-stash option in AL-only formats on Draft Day.

Adrian Gonzalez
Gonzo trims down for 2012?
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, BOS
4:36 PM
News: The Boston Globe reports Red Sox 1B Adrian Gonzalez showed up to spring training on Monday, even though position players didn't have to report until Feb. 23. The paper notes that Gonzalez appears trimmer than he was at the end of the 2011 season.
Analysis: Perhaps Gonzalez wanted to get a bit more in shape for the 2012 season, but it's not like he had poor conditioning in 2011. He did pretty well in his first season with Boston, batting .338 with 27 homers and 117 RBI. He is only 29 years old and still has plenty of quality years left. Gonzalez remains an early-round Fantasy pick in all formats.

 
 
 
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