Tout Wars: The art of making a Rotisserie deal
Full disclosure up front, I'm writing this article as much for myself as I am for the Rotisserie public. Back in the day I was annually the trade-count leader in my hometown league, something I took a sheepish little pride in. Alas, my swap numbers have dipped in recent years, so it's time to re-evaluate how this exchange game works.
Seek to find win-wins
The easiest trades to complete are the ones where both teams deal from depth and ultimately stand to gain (heck, we learned that as kids swapping baseball cards). You should constantly be re-evaluating the roster landscape of your league, seeking to find where other teams are shallow and deep. Back in the day I was famous (perhaps infamous) for my dedication to analyzing the rosters in my hometown league; that's something I've gotten away from in recent years, and it's affected my trade count. Perhaps in cutthroat leagues you'll get kudos for fleecing another owner, but in most of my leagues I'm competing with essentially the same group of owners every year -- maintaining sound relationships is important. You're not only trading with Team X today, you're potentially trading with Team X for the next 10 years. Building up resentment and bad karma isn't worth one giant windfall; constantly aim to find angles that benefit both sides. This is not to suggest that you're not allowed to win a few deals, and if you can out-speculate your opponents, more power to you, but just make sure you're coming to the table in good faith.
It's a relationship business
I worked this into the last point, but let's make sure no one misses it. I didn't write the rules but I've read the rules -- you're a lot more successful in life if people like you. When you open up trade talks with another owner, be a good egg, Noonan. Don't interrogate your opponent for his questionable deal a month ago; don't launch into a 15-question attack on his draft strategy; don't float an insane lowball offer that basically serves as an idiot check. I'm not suggesting that you should cultivate some phony image, either -- be yourself -- but try to maintain a professional and friendly theme at all times.
Keep everyone in the loop
Before you look to swap any name player, make sure everyone in your group knows the big-ticket item is in play. Two aims with this point: one, you want to maximize your potential trade partners, and two, you want to avoid the negative fallout that comes when a superstar is dealt without any advance warning.
Work the categories
The stat pools have personality at this juncture of the season, which means you can specifically target what categories you need and what categories you can dispose of with little affect to your standing. There’s nothing tricky to this theme, it's just an investment of time, auditing the league stats. Don't forget that you can also position numbers where they will hurt your rivals; if your main contender is battling for every point in steals, say, it might make sense to move a rabbit to another team in his statistical neighborhood.
In keeper leagues, pick "today" or "tomorrow"
At this stage of the year you should have a good sense if you're in the hunt or not, and in keeper leagues that puts you at a fork in the road. Are you in it to win it in 2008, or are your chances shot for this summer? Give yourself a fair team audit, and then attack with gusto -- don't hold anything back. If you're chasing this year's title, liquidate anything keepable that doesn't help you today. "Flags Fly Forever," as Joe Sheehan (Baseball Prospectus) likes to say. Okay, maybe 2008 wasn't your year. No worries, let's make you the favorite for next season. Move everything you can off the showroom floor, the big pieces, the medium pieces, the small pieces. Keep working the waiver wire and FAAB aggressively as well -- many of those new players will make great sale items next week! Never underestimate how badly the contending teams want to win -- a common error rebuilding owners make is undervaluing just how much leverage they hold. If there's no disincentive for a low finish this summer (honestly, I prefer leagues that do have something in place), then the heck with where you slot in 2008, forget vanity -- look to the future. (Also consider that hitting generally holds up better than pitching as far as keepers go, but your mileage may vary).
Shallow leagues are about stars, deep leagues are about depth
I'm constantly fielding 2-for-1 trade offers in my mixed leagues (their two, my one), which is par for the course. Most of my opponents realize that the waiver wire is rich in those groups, so moving two good players for one star commodity is a good idea. I don't say yes to a lot of those deals, mind you. In deeper leagues, the focus shifts a bit -- if the waiver wire is a wasteland, the bottom third of your roster becomes a lot more critical. If I find myself in a body crunch in an AL-only or NL-only group, I'm far more likely to consider liquidating one star for multiple fills elsewhere.
Zero in with e-mail, close on the phone
The internet is a great place to open trade talks -- you can announce your intentions to a wide audience, transfer information easily, etc. But when you want to push things forward at a quicker rate, pick up the phone and let the digits fly. By the time you reach this stage, you should have a sense of what deal you want and what your opponent might accept. The remake of Glengarry Glen Ross isn't going to be about e-mail -- the trade business will always be driven by direct communication.
Work off their playbook
I don't care how emotionally detached you think you are in this game, everyone has pet players, everyone has biases, everyone has blind spots here and there. Do everything you can to figure out how your opponent ranks their roster (most will offer a depth chart at your request), and use that as your shopping guide. If he's got some runaway dreams for some players, let them be -- it's going to help you get good values on the players he's undervaluing. You don't have to agree with his depth chart, in fact it's better if you don't. But it's going to steer you to the good values. Keep in mind biases aren't limited to players -- many owners have statistical biases as well. In more recreational leagues, I've found that home runs and RBIs are often glorified and chased with much gusto, while runs scored and batting average are usually less interesting to the common owner. If your opponents think they can beat you with a roster of Adam Dunns while you collect all the Adrian Gonzalezes, good luck to them.
Timing is everything
It's a marathon not a sprint, you shouldn't overreact to small data samples, blah blah blah. Everyone knows these rules, but we're all human as well. If you're targeting an ace pitcher from one of your opponents, don't go to him after a three-hit shutout -- wait until the pitcher has a rough start or two. The first-place owner might not be eager to shake up his roster, but the guy who dropped three slots in the last two weeks is probably jonsing for some turnover. It's all timing, friends.
Hone Your Craft
There's a ton of negotiating advice out there if you're looking for it, and don't limit yourself to the sports landscape. I got some mileage out of "The Hagglers Handbook" (Leonard Koren/Peter Goodman) back in the mid-90s -- it's probably time for me to re-read that one. H. Scott Gleason, the trading legend from my hometown league, swears by "Getting to Yes" by Roger Fisher. I'm sure there are hundreds of other volumes that offer some overlap into our Fantasy world.
When all else fails, trade with yourself
The point-and-click generation has affected my trade count to be sure. It's fun to constantly be churning the back quarter of your roster, especially in mixed leagues where the pool is rich. Can't get through to the other chaps in your league? Fire up the laptop and see what's out there for free. And when your new shortstop whacks three homers over the weekend, don't be surprised when his previous owner comes calling, looking to trade.
- Tout Wars main website
- Tout Wars: Mixed Standings and Rosters
- Tout Wars: AL-only Standings and Rosters
- Tout Wars: NL-only Standings and Rosters
You can e-mail Scott Pianowski a question or a comment about this column to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put "Attn: Tout Wars" in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.
