By the Numbers: Not so hot corner
By Al Melchior | Special to CBSSports.com Follow AlFollow CBS Fantasy Baseball
It’s been a tumultuous week for American League third basemen. First, Casey Blake left the league altogether to head to the Dodgers, and then Joe Crede and Hank Blalock (again) had their seasons interrupted with visits to the disabled list. While hardly surprised, Fantasy owners also learned that Scott Rolen's playing time will be curtailed due to his ongoing shoulder woes.
In the Zen world of Fantasy Baseball, there is always a yang to balance out the yin of injuries and slumps. Three of the biggest ownership gainers among AL players this week were third basemen. The bat of Chris Davis keeps getting hotter, and Fantasy owners continue to reward him with free agent claims. Melvin Mora's season has turned around, thanks to a July power surge and a H/BIP rate that is finally moving towards a normal level. Accordingly, his ownership rate is now at its highest point this season. Finally, Crede's vacancy created the opportunity for Josh Fields that many anticipated would happen much sooner this season.
My recent analyses of Davis and Mora have shown that both are reasonable choices for a mixed league roster spot. This week, we will see if Fields belongs in the same category. However, the biggest waves have been created by the changing of the guard at the back end of the Tiger bullpen. Does new closer Fernando Rodney have what it takes to keep the job and prosper in it? Or are his struggles from this past weekend a harbinger of tough times to come?
More guys in demand
Fernando Rodney, RP, Detroit
Week 18 Ownership: 3 percent
Week 19 Ownership: 48 percent
Rank in AL Most Added: 1st
The Skinny: With Todd Jones' removal from the closer’s role and Rodney’s promotion, the closer pool in the AL just got a little better. Rodney replaces the closer with the worst skill profile in the AL and brings his strikeout-per-inning heat to the ninth inning. There is no question that Jones is not a threat to recapture the job, but could Kyle Farnsworth's return to the Motor City eventually mean a short stay for Rodney in his new role? Both relievers have had similar K/9 and BB/9 rates over the last few years, so both will make similar contributions to strikeouts and WHIP. We should expect Rodney to have a significant edge in ERA, though, because he is much less prone to the long ball. Until he cuts down on his walks, Rodney’s ERA will be no better than in the mid-3.00s, but that's still better than you will get from many other common free agent options, such as C.J. Wilson or Masahide Kobayashi. Should, for some reason, Farnsworth be awarded the closer’s job at some point, mixed leaguers need to avoid him at all costs.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | H/BIP | ERC |
| 2006 | Detroit | 4.3 | 8.2 | 0.8 | 24% | 3.01 |
| 2007 | Detroit | 3.7 | 9.6 | 0.9 | 31% | 3.74 |
| 2008 | Detroit | 5.9 | 8.6 | 1.1 | 21% | 3.51 |
Josh Fields, 3B, Chicago White Sox
Week 18 Ownership: 10 percent
Week 19 Ownership: 20 percent
Rank in AL Most Added: 6th (tied)
The Skinny: The name on the back of the jersey might say "Fields," but it would be more appropriate if his name was "Josh Mashes." Home run power is Fields' greatest asset, but he can steal a few bases and draw some walks, too. The most common outcome of a Josh Fields plate appearance, however, is a whiff. He is sort of a hot corner version of Adam Dunn, with fewer homers and walks but all of the strikeouts. Fields' whiff rate has regressed rather than improved, so don't expect a .300-plus average like he had in Triple-A two years ago. Until he can be more selective at the plate, a .260 average is about the most we can hope for. As a slightly below-average producer at his position, he is a defensible pickup in AL-only leagues. Unless climbing the home run standings is a top priority, take a pass on Fields in mixed leagues.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2006 | Charlotte (Triple-A) | 10% | 29% | 0.210 | 40% | N/A |
| 2007 | Chicago White Sox | 9% | 33% | 0.236 | 30% | 4.6 |
| 2008 | Charlotte (Triple-A) | 10% | 35% | 0.203 | 34% | N/A |
Others drawing interest
| Rank | Player | Week 18 ownership | Week 19 ownership | Percentage change |
| 2 | Chris Davis, 3B, Texas | 52% | 69% | 17% |
| 3 | Adam Lind, OF, Toronto | 29% | 44% | 15% |
| 4 | Jarrod Washburn, SP, Seattle | 19% | 33% | 14% |
| 5 | Johnny Damon, OF, N.Y. Yankees | 81% | 92% | 11% |
| 5 | Melvin Mora, 3B, Baltimore | 40% | 51% | 11% |
The guys dropping like flies
Jose Guillen, OF, Kansas City
Week 18 Ownership: 83 percent
Week 19 Ownership: 74 percent
Rank in AL Most Dropped: 5th (tied)
The Skinny: Guillen's stock has been falling steadily since the All-Star Break. In that short time, he has gone from having a place on an active roster in three out of four CBSSports.com leagues to just over one out of four for Week 19. Owners have every reason to view Guillen as suspect, as he could close out July with a sub-.450 OPS. Whether he hits the DL with his groin injury or plays through it, Guillen is a questionable roster choice, even in AL-only leagues. His .157 average this month is partly due to a fluky 19 percent H/BIP rate, but even with a more generous ratio in the mid-to-upper 20s, he would have hit .230 for the month at best, due to his diminished power.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2006 | Washington | 6% | 20% | 0.183 | 23% | 3.4 |
| 2007 | Seattle | 7% | 20% | 0.170 | 33% | 5.7 |
| 2008 | Kansas City | 3% | 19% | 0.185 | 29% | 4.1 |
Others wearing roster repellant
| Rank | Player | Week 18 ownership | Week 19 ownership | Percentage change |
| 1 | Jesse Litsch, SP, Toronto | 50% | 25% | - 25% |
| 2 | Damaso Marte, RP, N.Y. Yankees | 40% | 19% | - 21% |
| 3 | Aaron Laffey, SP, Cleveland | 36% | 19% | - 17% |
| 4 | Todd Jones, RP, Detroit | 71% | 56% | - 15% |
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
