By the Numbers: The power of Manny?
By Al Melchior | Special to CBSSports.com Follow AlFollow CBS Fantasy Baseball
As has been the case in many recent weeks, several of the players topping the NL Most Added list are young rookies getting their careers off on the right foot. If you drill down the list, past big league newbies Chris Perez, Daniel Murphy and Clayton Kershaw, you will find a player who is nearly old enough to be their dad. Jeff Kent is known to have an ornery streak, and apparently, he doesn't like having a fork stuck in him. Over the last two weeks, Kent has shown his fair-weather Fantasy friends that he still has something left, hitting .396 in the month of August so far. Owners, eager to make up, having added him to rosters in eight percent of CBSSports.com leagues in the past week and activated him in 14 percent of leagues.
Earlier this year, Kent made some appearances on the "Unlucky Hitters" list with an uncharacteristic H/BIP percentage in the mid-20s. Now that he has that rate up to 29 percent, he has raised his average into the .270s for the first time since May. The increasing average is almost entirely a result of this evening out of luck, because Kent's skill indicators look the same today as they did in early June, when he was batting around .250. His Isolated Power and walk rate have fallen off sharply from their levels of the past few years, and they simply aren't rebounding. Kent's recent improvements in average, RBI and runs scored have brought his Fantasy stats to a point where they should have been all along, but there are no signs that his progress will continue. At this level, Kent is no more than an NL-only option, unless the karma from the arrival Manny Ramirez keeps working.
On that mildly depressing note, maybe it's time to move back to the youngsters. Our analysis zones in on a trio of 30-and-unders.
More guys in demand
Lastings Milledge, OF, Washington
Week 20 Ownership: 33 percent
Week 21 Ownership: 55 percent
Rank in NL Most Added: 1st
The Skinny: For a player who is better known for his speed and on-base skills, Milledge has been on a major power tear the past two weeks. His five home runs in the first half of August are more than he has hit in any month of his major league career. Milledge never received an extended chance to play regularly with the Mets, and though he has come out flat in his first season with the Nats, they have let him play through his struggles. His recent outburst could be a sign of a breakthrough, but who can tell? With only about a season's worth of at-bats above Class-A, Milledge was rushed to the majors, and he has yet to develop much of a track record in the bigs. He will need to show skills growth over more than two weeks to prove that he is ready for mixed leagues. With the season heading into the home stretch, there isn't enough time for Milledge to establish himself as a maturing player. With an eye towards next year, his improved contact and recent power surge give owners a reason to track his progress as a potential keeper or draftee for 2009.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2006 | N.Y. Mets | 7% | 23% | 0.139 | 29% | 3.7 |
| 2007 | N.Y. Mets | 7% | 23% | 0.174 | 32% | 5.1 |
| 2008 | Washington | 7% | 18% | 0.144 | 29% | 4.1 |
Ty Wigginton, 3B, Houston
Week 20 Ownership: 32 percent
Week 21 Ownership: 44 percent
Rank in NL Most Added: 3rd
The Skinny: Wiggy is one of the beneficiaries of the Carlos Lee injury, seeing regular playing time in left field, while Geoff Blum is left to man third base full-time. He was having a solid year anyway, but with a recent surge in power, Wigginton is officially having a whale of a season from a skills perspective. He is hitting with corner outfielder-type power, but striking out less and walking more. Now that Wigginton has a secure starting role and the 'Stros offense is heating up, his Fantasy stats could reach the same lofty level as his skill indicators. He is a good gamble to produce at an above-average level at second base and even at third. Claim him and get him in your lineup.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2006 | Tampa Bay | 7% | 22% | 0.223 | 30% | 5.5 |
| 2007 | Tampa Bay/Houston | 7% | 21% | 0.181 | 32% | 5.1 |
| 2008 | Houston | 10% | 17% | 0.217 | 30% | 6.5 |
Others drawing interest
| Rank | Player | Week 20 ownership | Week 21 ownership | Percentage change |
| 2 | Chris Perez, RP, St. Louis | 12% | 28% | 16% |
| 4 | Joe Blanton, SP, Philadelphia | 60% | 71% | 11% |
| 4 | Jeff Karstens, SP, Pittsburgh | 39% | 50% | 11% |
| 4 | Daniel Murphy, 3B, N.Y. Mets | 2% | 13% | 11% |
The guys dropping like flies
Josh Willingham, OF, Florida
Week 20 Ownership: 69 percent
Week 21 Ownership: 64 percent
Rank in NL Most Dropped: 5th (tied)
The Skinny: In this week's column on outfielders, I singled out Willingham as a particularly undervalued and underowned player. While he has been colder than Duluth for the better part of the last month and a half, I still saw several reasons to pick up The Hammer. His current skill numbers are in line with his previous totals, so his recent struggles could be seen as a counterweight to his sizzling April performance. As I mentioned in the column, those overall stats put Willingham in a class with Brad Hawpe, who is nobody's idea of a marginal Fantasy player. Also, there was a period in late July and early August where he hit safely in 10 out of 11 games, batting .378 and slugging .568 in that span. That brief streak put my fears of lingering back problems to rest.
Still, there are reasons why Willingham's stats and ownership numbers are heading in the wrong direction. The last time he hit a home run, Rich Harden still had two starts left to give to Oakland. Willingham's numbers since then have been awful, but they would be even worse if not for his hot spell, which it turns out was pretty fluky, given that more than half of his balls in play became base hits. If Willingham is healthy, then his slump could be ending any minute now. However, if his back is still causing problems, it could be a long season, especially now that Luis Gonzalez is threatening to cut into his playing time. Until Willingham's health and playing time status become clearer, downgrade him from "must-claim" to "monitor his progress."
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2006 | Florida | 10% | 22% | 0.219 | 31% | 6.3 |
| 2007 | Florida | 11% | 23% | 0.198 | 31% | 6.2 |
| 2008 | Florida | 12% | 25% | 0.191 | 32% | 5.9 |
More guys wearing roster repellant
| Rank | Player | Week 20 ownership | Week 21 ownership | Percentage change |
| 1 | Eddie Kunz, RP, N.Y. Mets | 24% | 10% | - 14% |
| 2 | Jeff Baker, 1B, Colorado | 30% | 21% | - 9% |
| 3 | Jason Isringhausen, RP, St. Louis | 53% | 45% | - 8% |
| 4 | Jeff Francoeur, OF, Atlanta | 69% | 63% | - 6% |
| 5 | Juan Pierre, OF, L.A. Dodgers | 53% | 48% | - 5% |
| 5 | Tyler Yates, RP, Pittsburgh | 13% | 8% | - 5% |
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
